The price test at 1.1533 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Yesterday, the euro continued to rise against the dollar even amid reports that Iran had struck two U.S. bases in Iraq. The markets seemed somewhat confused, assessing the potential consequences of escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East. On the one hand, in such moments, investors traditionally seek refuge in assets considered the least risky, such as the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, everyone is already accustomed to such skirmishes and is not particularly reacting to this news. The key point now is the central banks' response to inflation driven by the war in the Middle East.

In the first half of the day today, data on changes in industrial production in Germany—the locomotive of the European economy—are expected. These figures will provide important insight into the state of the manufacturing sector, which is often a leading indicator of overall economic activity. Concurrently, data on Germany's trade balance will be released. This indicator reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods, and its changes can significantly impact the euro's exchange rate.

Undoubtedly, the central event of the day will be the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Her words will be closely analyzed for signals regarding future monetary policy. Markets will be looking for hints of further interest rate moves, as well as assessments of inflation risks from the ECB president.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1559 (green line on the chart), with a target to reach 1.1582. At point 1.1582, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise can only be justified after good data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1539 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1559 and 1.1582.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1539 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1505, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return only if reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decrease from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1559 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1539 and 1.1505.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

All this suggests that markets are bouncing back after one of the worst sessions since March. The MSCI Asia Pacific index gained almost 2%, and South Korea's KOSPI popped more than 5% — SK Hynix jumped by 11% after Monday's 10% decline. Buyers who fled late last week returned to the market.

There were several reasons for the recovery. Iran and Israel agreed to temper reciprocal strikes after a flare-up of violence that threatened to derail the peace talks. US President Donald Trump called for de-escalation and, this time, was heeded. Brent eased by nearly 1% to settle at about $93.40. Weekend traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up slightly, although some vessels transited with transponders switched off, which underscores remaining risks.

The tech sector received additional catalysts. SpaceX's IPO was heavily oversubscribed. Nvidia and SK Hynix announced a joint chip-development agreement. Apple is preparing an AI-based device reboot. OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO. All of this fuels the narrative that the market is unwilling to give up even after last week's sharp sell-off. UBS said yesterday that fundamentals remain strong and investor conviction in AI prospects is intact. Morgan Stanley also views the correction as inevitable and ultimately constructive if the bull market is to continue through year-end.

Still, it's too early to relax. The 10-year Treasury yield remains at 4.56% — inflation and expectations of interest rate hikes have not gone away.

The main event this week is Wednesday's US May CPI report. Consensus expects headline consumer price inflation to rise 4.2% year-on-year, the highest in more than three years. Core CPI is expected to edge down month-on-month, which could be a modest positive signal for the Fed. If headline CPI prints above consensus, odds of further rate hikes will increase, the dollar would gain, and pressure on equities would resume.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,427. That would confirm upside momentum and open the path to $7,451. Maintaining control above $7,475 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,404. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,381 and open the way to $7,355.

According to the report, investors should lock in some profits on stocks, as the market has accumulated too many alarming signals to continue ignoring them.

The main concern of BofA is not falling profits, but rather the absence of a recession. The issue is structural: the growth of the S&P 500 increasingly relies on a narrow group of companies. At the end of May, only 20 of 500 companies closed at historic highs. This is a catastrophically low market breadth—and this pattern was observed at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000. When the index rises, and the majority of stocks do not participate in this growth, it is not a bull market in the full sense, but rather a few major names pulling the entire index along.

In May, two additional risks emerged. The energy sector has significantly outperformed the rest of the market, and BofA sees parallels to February 2020, just before the COVID crash. At that time, energy also stood out from the general picture, signaling hidden stress in the economy. The second new signal identified in the report is the weakness in defensive consumer companies. The consumer staples sector has become the worst-performing sector, although historically such periods often precede a shift in favor of defensive stocks—when investors move from growth to quality.

The technology sector and communication services remain the hottest parts of the market; however, valuations there already look expensive even under optimistic profit forecasts. After Broadcom disappointed investors last week and triggered a wave of sell-offs, it became clear: the AI narrative is still working, but tolerance for any deviations from inflated expectations has sharply declined.

It is noteworthy that BofA's warning came just as the market is recovering from the crash and investors are starting to buy the dip again. This is no coincidence—the bank is essentially warning that the rebound may be a trap for those rushing back into the market. On the horizon, we are awaiting the May CPI on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve meeting on June 16-17, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran. The combination of high inflation, a possible rate hike, and a narrow market does not provide a comfortable backdrop for buying around historical highs.

Meanwhile, the crypto industry has moved to openly pressuring Congress. A coalition of more than 200 companies, industry groups, and public organizations sent a joint letter to Senate leaders John Thune and Chuck Schumer, demanding that the CLARITY Act be brought to a vote. The letter was signed by Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, Andreessen Horowitz, Circle, and Binance US—essentially the creme de la creme of the American crypto industry.

The scale of the lobbying campaign is unprecedented for the crypto market; the industry is no longer asking but demanding. The argument is straightforward—the law will create a federal framework for digital asset markets, clarify regulatory responsibilities, and keep innovations, jobs, and capital within the country.

It is worth noting that the letter emerged at a critical moment in the legislative process. The CLARITY Act has already passed through the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, and Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the next step is consideration in the chamber. Recently, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly urged legislators to pass the law this summer, while White House crypto advisor Patrick Whitt called it regulatory and pro-consumer.

However, despite the industry's unprecedented mobilization, obstacles have not disappeared.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today at the entry point around $63,600, targeting a rise to $64,800. At around $64,800, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can be done from the lower boundary of $63,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $63,600 and $64,800.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $63,000, targeting a decline to $61,600. At around $61,600, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can be initiated from the upper boundary of $63,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $63,000 and $61,600.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today at the entry point around $1,700, targeting a rise to $1,763. At around $1,763, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can be done from the lower boundary of $1,671 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $1,700 and $1,763.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point of around $1,671, targeting a decline to $1,596. At around $1,596, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can be initiated from the upper boundary of $1,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $1,671 and $1,596.

Even reports of successful Iranian drone strikes on two U.S. bases in Iraq did not spur the dollar to continue its rise. It seemed that the market had already priced in an initial reaction to the escalation of the conflict and was waiting for more substantial catalysts to change the correlation.

The situation was aggravated by statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, who reportedly threatened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he would leave him to face Iran alone if the escalation of Israeli attacks led to full-scale war. This sharp rebuke from the American administration, which traditionally supports its Middle Eastern ally, caused confusion in financial markets. Uncertainty about the future of U.S. policy in the Middle East cooled investor interest in risk assets, but the dollar, contrary to expectations, did not receive the anticipated boost.

Today, the first half of the day promises to be busy for financial markets, especially concerning the European economy. Key macroeconomic indicators from Germany are expected to be released, traditionally exerting a significant influence on the euro and investor sentiment. First and foremost, this includes data on changes in industrial production. This indicator is among the most sensitive to the business cycle and can provide a clear picture of current dynamics in the largest economy in the Eurozone. Weak figures could increase concerns about a recession.

Alongside the production data, figures on Germany's trade balance will also be released. This reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. A positive balance is traditionally a strong point for the German economy, but a reduction or shift into negative territory could signal declining competitiveness of German goods in global markets.

Today, we also expect a speech from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, although it is not yet known whether she will address monetary policy. However, amid rising inflation and slowing economic growth, every word from the ECB head will be closely scrutinized.

Regarding the pound, there is again no significant data from the UK today, which significantly limits the potential for further recovery of the GBP/USD pair. This lack of macroeconomic indicators means that the market has no new reasons for optimism regarding the British currency, and the pair is likely to remain under pressure.

In this context, yesterday's rise in GBP/USD may quickly come to an end. Without positive news from the British economy, any recovery in the pair will likely be corrective in nature and could be quickly offset by renewed pressure from the dollar.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to operate based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of 1.1554, which could lead to a rise in the euro to around 1.1579 and 1.1601;
• Sell on a breakout of 1.1529, which could lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1506 and 1.1480;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of 1.3367, which could lead to a rise in the pound to around 1.3405 and 1.3441;
• Sell on a breakout of 1.3336, which could lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3307 and 1.3285;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of 160.24, which could lead to a rise in the dollar to around 160.43 and 160.67;
• Sell on a breakout of 160.02, which could lead to a sell-off of the dollar to around 159.83 and 159.60;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1557, returning below this level;
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1526, returning to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3375, returning below this level;
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3328, returning to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7069, returning below this level;
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.7038, returning to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3957, returning below this level;
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3936, returning to this level;

The euro is trading around 1.1534, rebounding after reaching the 1.1499 area. The euro could recover some of last week's losses if it consolidates above the psychological level of 1.1500 in the coming days.

Given the euro's upward potential, we could open long positions at current price levels. Alternatively, if there is a technical correction to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1520, we could then target the 21-period SMA around 1.1575 and ultimately expect it to reach 1.1645.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we believe the euro will continue its recovery in the coming days and could reach the upper band of the descending trend channel around 1.1675 in the short term.

Conversely, if bearish forces prevail, the euro has strong support around the 6/8 Murray level at 1.1474. This level is key and could be a turning point for a sustained recovery in the short term.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy the euro if a technical correction occurs and while the price remains above 1.1500, with targets at 1.1575 and 1.1645.

Gold is trading around $4,329 below the 6/8 Murray level and bouncing after reaching the lower band of the descending trend channel around $4,268. Given that, after last week's non-farm payrolls report, the instrument left a gap around $4,375, this could be the target for further gains in the coming hours, with the price potentially reaching the 21-period SMA around $4,399.

Technically, gold is showing a positive signal, so a pullback towards $4,300 or $4,270 could be seen as a buy signal in the coming hours.

A consolidation above the 6/8 Murray level could signal a bullish scenario for gold, and we could continue buying in the coming days, with targets at the upper band of the ascending trend channel around $4,478.

The Eagle indicator is showing positive signs, so if gold reaches the S_1 support level around $4,280 or the daily S_2 support level around $4,231 in the next few hours, we could look to this area as a potential long position, with targets around $4,557 in the coming days.

Conversely, we could look to the area between $4,399 and $4,375 as a potential short position. Below this area, there is strong resistance, and we could sell with targets around $4,270.

Bitcoin is trading around $62,800, undergoing a technical correction after reaching $64,000, following a rebound from the low of $59,375, which coincided with the -1/8 Murray level.

Bitcoin has reached a key support level. If the price remains above the 21 SMA and above the 0/8 Murray level, it could continue its rise in the coming days, potentially reaching the -1/8 Murray level around $65,625. BTC could even reach the upper band of the descending trend channel formed in May, around $66,875.

A sharp break below $62,000, along with consolidation below the 0/8 Murray level, could enable further declines in Bitcoin, potentially pushing it down to the $59,375 area. This level could form a double bottom pattern, which would entail bullish implications.

Given that Bitcoin is currently within an upward trend channel and above the 0/8 Murray level, we will look for buying opportunities in the coming days above $62,500, with a target at $65,625. Even if the bullish momentum prevails, we would expect it to reach the 2/8 Murray level around $68,750.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal. So, any pullback in Bitcoin as long as the price remains above $59,375, will be seen as a bullish signal to continue buying.

Crude oil is trading around $89.19, below the 200 EMA and the 21 SMA, reaching Friday's closing price level with the aim of filling the gap left around $88.70.

Given that crude oil is under bearish pressure, we could continue selling from the $89.20 level. If the price falls below $87.50 around the 7/8 Murray level, we could then expect it to fill the gap left on May 29th around $86.78 and even reach the May low around $85.44.

Since crude oil is in an upward trend channel and is trading within it, we could expect a technical bounce in the coming days, but for the bullish momentum to prevail, the instrument would need to consolidate above the psychological level of $90.

A move above the 21-period SMA could see crude oil reach $93.07, the level where the 200-period EMA is located. This suggests an opportunity to continue buying, with a target at $94.41, where it left a gap in early June. Crude oil could even reach the upper band of the ascending trend channel around $96.55.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so a technical bounce around $89 or above $87.50 could be considered a signal to continue buying crude oil in the coming days.

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday, and none are significant. In Germany, reports on industrial production and the trade balance will be released today, but they do not initially generate much interest. The market has been in a range for three weeks, practically ignoring all news and events. Only the important and high-profile NonFarm Payrolls report was able to provoke movement of more than 100 pips, which led to the end of the range for the EUR/USD pair. Thus, the German reports are unlikely to inspire the market. The same applies to the American reports. The weekly ADP report and existing home sales are clearly not the type of information traders are waiting for. The first important report this week will be published tomorrow: U.S. inflation.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is nothing of significance among the fundamental events on Tuesday either. The European Central Bank meeting will take place on Thursday, while the meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are scheduled for next week. Therefore, representatives of the central banks cannot comment on monetary policy at this time. They have entered a "quiet period." The ECB is highly likely to raise rates this week, but the euro cannot currently benefit from it.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to be unsatisfactory, as Iran and the U.S. have once again moved closer to a resurgence of conflict and failure in negotiations. Talks between Washington and Tehran are ongoing, and according to the U.S. president, they are "very successful." However, there have been no confirmations from Iran regarding the success of diplomacy. Quite the opposite. The parties regularly violate the terms of the ceasefire. The new week has begun with mutual shelling in the Middle East.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade with low volatility, as no significant events are scheduled. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3319-1.3331. Geopolitics remains the key driver in the currency market, despite the strong market reaction on Friday to American data.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair did not show any interesting movements throughout Monday. There were no significant news events during the day, so the market paused, at least until Wednesday or until news from the Middle East that is not based on rumors or speculation. As a result, the pair's decline following Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report quickly came to an end. Overall, the U.S. dollar has shown decent growth in recent weeks, but on higher timeframes, it is clear that this growth is not as strong as it appears. In 2026, the American currency will have support, but primarily due to geopolitical events. Recent data on the U.S. economy were encouraging, but overall, the market remains quite skeptical of the dollar due to Donald Trump's protectionist policies. In our view, any growth in the American currency under Trump is purely corrective. Traders are left to wait for the current correction to conclude.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Monday, neither of which can be deemed good. Volatility on Monday was low, and the British pound moved sideways for most of the day. Thus, the sell signal in the 1.3319-1.3331 area may have resulted in a small loss for beginner traders. The long position from the same area at best brought in 10-15 pips of profit.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend, as the geopolitical situation remains consistently poor, and the ascending trend line has been breached. However, without a full resumption of the war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect the growth it saw in February-March. Individual events can still prompt further strengthening (as happened on Friday), but we do not believe the market will trigger a new wave of risk aversion towards the dollar. The dollar under Trump is itself considered a risk asset.

On Tuesday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.3259-1.3267 if the price breaks below the 1.3319-1.3331 area. A price bounce from the area of 1.3319-1.3331 would allow for long positions with targets of 1.3380-1.3386.

On the 5-minute timeframe, current levels to trade are 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. On Tuesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the UK or the U.S., so we can expect another boring day today, with low volatility and sideways movement.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair completed its range after three weeks, trading in the 1.1584-1.1666 area. On Friday, the price plunged by about 120 pips, which triggered the end of the range. However, on Monday, the U.S. dollar was unable to continue its rise, as substantial reasons are still required. On higher timeframes (daily, weekly), it is clear that the dollar has shown quite modest growth in recent weeks and months compared to the preceding decline. Thus, we still do not expect a strong strengthening of the American currency in the long term. Individual events (geopolitical developments or strong U.S. reports) periodically provoke market reactions and dollar strengthening. However, each such event only underscores the obvious fact — the dollar cannot rely on a full-fledged trend. A new downward trend has formed on the hourly timeframe. The trend line indicates bearish market sentiment, but as we mentioned, further growth of the dollar requires sustained support from macroeconomic fundamentals and geopolitics. Much of this data has been ignored by the market in recent weeks.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Monday. The price first broke the 1.1527-1.1531 area from above to below, then from below to above. In both cases, traders did not experience significant movement, but the price moved at least 15 pips in the right direction, preventing losses on open trades.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the range has ended, and the downward trend has resumed after three weeks of stagnation, but further growth of the American currency will depend entirely on developments in geopolitical events. Donald Trump continues to promise that a deal with Iran will be finalized soon. If this happens, the dollar will begin to lose positions.

On Tuesday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1455-1.1474 if the price breaks below the 1.1527-1.1531 area. Buy trades can be considered on a bounce from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, with a target of 1.1584-1.1594.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider are 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Tuesday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in either the Eurozone or the U.S. Today, reports on industrial production and trade balance in Germany, as well as ADP employment and home sales in the U.S., will be published. None of these is significant under the current circumstances.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

The GBP/USD currency pair also made a slight correction throughout Monday, but traders did not see any significant movements. As we warned, the day turned out dull and uninteresting due to a lack of macroeconomic or fundamental events. The market is now paying only a very indirect attention to geopolitical news. No one in the market is currently interested in Trump's latest promises of a deal with Iran, which are accompanied by rocket strikes in the Middle East. Thus, the market is waiting for new significant events that can help answer the questions "How will the Fed act in 2026?" and "Are there real signs of an end to the war in the Middle East?" The next event that may provide answers to one of these questions is the U.S. inflation report, which will be released tomorrow. If inflation continues to accelerate, the chances of the Federal Reserve tightening policy in 2026 will increase, thereby supporting the U.S. dollar.

From a technical standpoint, the downward trend continues. The price is below the Ichimoku indicator lines, but there is currently no trend line, and the dollar's rise on Friday might be a one-off occurrence. Geopolitics no longer supports the dollar as it did before, but in 2026, many factors are favoring the American currency. Significant reasons are needed for a new price drop.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, a fairly decent sell trading signal was formed. At the beginning of the American trading session, the price bounced off with minimal deviation from the 1.3369-1.3377 area and moved down by about 10-15 pips by the end of the day. Volatility was again low.

COT Report

The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross each other and are mostly close to zero. Right now, the lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders still dominating in terms of sales. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies is low.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, which are clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed, directly and indirectly, at weakening the U.S. currency. However, geopolitical factors are currently at the forefront, which have recently provided strong support to the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East cannot be considered resolved, the U.S. dollar may show growth in the future. According to the latest COT report (dated June 2), the "Non-commercial" group closed 4,300 BUY contracts and 13,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 9,200 contracts over the week.

GBP/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has ended its upward trend amid the latest tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and relations between Iran and the U.S. The macroeconomic and fundamental background still does not significantly influence the pair's movements (with rare exceptions). We do not believe that, without a real escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar can show strong growth, but the U.S. currency's position is currently more favorable than that of the British pound.

For June 9, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3437) and Kijun-sen (1.3392) may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Tuesday, important events and reports are not scheduled in the UK, while the U.S. will release the less interesting ADP report and existing home sales data. We do not expect the market to react to these reports, so today's volatility may again be low, and the price may remain near 1.3369-1.3377.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3179-1.3187 if the price bounces from 1.3369-1.3377. Long positions could become relevant if consolidation above the 1.3369-1.3377 range occurs, but the Ichimoku indicator lines are in close proximity to this area, from which price may bounce.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) are indicated by thick red lines, around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extremum levels are indicated by thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of net positions for each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair corrected throughout Monday. It cannot be said that the correction was strong or even noticeable—during the day, the European currency managed to recover about 30 pips after a 120-pip drop on Friday. Thus, the market is still oriented towards buying the American currency for a number of local reasons. First, the latest set of reports from overseas was impressive. Second, the "hawkish" expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are rising. Third, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is not ending, despite Donald Trump's promises. Of course, the dollar will not rise every day, but on average, it may continue to enjoy moderate demand. On Monday, there were no significant events in either the U.S. or the Eurozone, so traders had nothing to react to throughout the day. Trump again stated that a deal with Iran could be signed soon, but the market no longer believes the U.S. president.

In technical terms, the downward trend has resumed, but whether it will continue is a big question. If Tehran and Washington somehow sign a deal, demand for the U.S. currency will fall. If inflation in the U.S. starts to slow, there will be no dilemma for the Fed about whether to tighten monetary policy, which would also weaken the position of the U.S. dollar. The next inflation report is coming out on Wednesday.

On the 5-minute timeframe, only one trading signal was formed on Monday that traders could work with. At the opening of the European trading session, the price bounced off 1.1542 and then fell by around 25-30 pips. It then returned to 1.1542 and traded around it for the rest of the day.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 2. In the weekly timeframe illustration, it is clear that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish" but has declined significantly due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar has served as a "reserve currency" for some time. However, this process may have already concluded.

We still do not see any fundamental factors to strengthen the European currency, while there remain sufficient factors for the U.S. dollar to decline. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but when this factor runs out of "shelf life," everything will revert to the way it was. And that shelf life may have already expired. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Over the past few months, the pair hasn't come very close to this line.

The positioning of the indicator's red and blue lines indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 12,400, while the number of shorts decreased by 7,000. Consequently, the net position increased by 21,400 contracts in a week.

EUR/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense; it is not getting worse, but Washington and Tehran cannot agree on at least a temporary peace deal. If there are no new signs of a resumption of war in the Middle East and a memorandum of understanding is signed, the dollar will begin to lose ground. But so far, we see neither a deal nor a resurgence of war.

On June 9, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1637) and Kijun-sen (1.1573). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even once the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will safeguard against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Tuesday, only secondary reports will be released in the Eurozone and the U.S. For example, Germany will release reports on the trade balance and industrial production, while the U.S. will report on weekly ADP employment and home sales. We do not expect the market to react to any of these reports.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1444 if the price remains below 1.1542. Long positions can be opened if the price consolidates above 1.1542, with a target of 1.1585.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) are indicated by thick red lines, around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extremum levels are indicated by thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of net positions for each category of traders.

The GBP/USD currency pair attempted to continue its decline from Friday to Monday, but nothing came of it. The local fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable to the U.S. dollar, but it is not as strong as many might think. Recent macroeconomic data in the U.S. have indeed improved compared to 2025. Business activity is rising, and the labor market is recovering. Only the GDP growth rates and inflation are disappointing. However, an acceleration in inflation is also a positive signal for the American currency, as the Federal Reserve would then be more "hawkish." Thus, only the pace of economic growth raises concerns among traders at the moment.

Geopolitics remains consistently negative but is not worsening. Despite the ongoing shelling in the Middle East, a full-scale war is not resuming, and negotiations, after all, are still ongoing. Therefore, in our opinion, the dollar still lacks long-term prospects. At this point, it is essential to understand whether the market's reaction to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls was a one-time event. In recent weeks, traders have ignored both the macroeconomic background and geopolitical factors. If the market enters the trading regime of the past few weeks, we can expect another flat and low volatility.

The British pound, like the euro, is currently in a black period. In 2026, almost everything is stacked against risk assets and currencies, so it is not surprising that they cannot sustain the upward trends seen in 2022 and 2025 for now. Nevertheless, this difficult phase will eventually end, and even the war in the Middle East will not last forever. We continue to believe that the conflict between Iran and the U.S., as well as their allies, will turn into a sluggish bickering with regular shelling and rocket strikes, but without full-scale military actions. In this case, the market is unlikely to buy dollars again solely for their "safe properties." Periodically, the U.S. dollar may appreciate, but we generally regard any increase in the dollar as a correction.

As for the British pound, it also has a few growth factors. The Bank of England is almost guaranteed to abandon further monetary policy tightening in June, and another political crisis in the UK does not make the pound more attractive to traders, as the British economy's growth rates have long been unsatisfactory. Nonetheless, the prospects for the British currency are somewhat better. Just looking at the daily timeframe makes it clear—the GBP/USD pair has been in sideways movement for nine months, and the dollar has not shown any stronger movement than a pullback or correction. This week, the American currency may receive some assistance from the inflation report due out on Wednesday, but it could equally support the British pound. On the 4-hour timeframe, the pair has not yet breached the 1.3306 level, so an upward pullback this week is quite possible.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 72 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Tuesday, June 9, we expect movement within a range bounded by levels 1.3273 and 1.3417. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upward, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3306

S2 – 1.3245

S3 – 1.3184

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3367

R2 – 1.3428

R3 – 1.3489

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not anticipate long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. However, 2026 is shaping up to be very positive for the dollar due to geopolitics. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3550 may be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, trading to the downside with targets at 1.3273 and 1.3245 will be appropriate. The market situation often changes, and it continues to primarily track geopolitical news, which is not homogeneous.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channels within which the pair will stay for the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates an approaching trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The EUR/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Monday, with the U.S. dollar failing to extend Friday's momentum, and volatility once again fell to minimal levels. Despite a steady stream of geopolitical news, traders are still hardly reacting to it. On Monday, it became known that Iran launched rocket strikes against Israel, marking the first such attacks since the ceasefire agreement came into effect in early April. Thus, it's time to talk about the escalation of the conflict and the resumption of war rather than expecting a ceasefire anytime soon.

However, as mentioned, the market hardly reacted to this new violation of the temporary ceasefire in the Middle East, as it essentially does not affect anything. The parties to the conflict still cannot agree on a deal, and negotiations continue despite regular shelling from both "rebels," with the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked. Therefore, one more strike or one less does not matter. In general, the market has reacted only to one event in the past three weeks—the NonFarm Payrolls report released on Friday. This report did indeed show positive figures, indicating not only a recovery in the U.S. labor market but also allowing the Federal Reserve to move faster toward inflation containment.

We doubt that the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy is a foregone conclusion by the end of the year, as we still do not know what position new chair Kevin Warsh will take and how he will influence the entire FOMC. Therefore, we would not rush to conclusions. However, the fact remains—a hawkish sentiment is strengthening in the market, which could further support the American currency.

This sentiment may grow stronger this week, as the May inflation report will be released on Wednesday, and the index may show a third consecutive acceleration, this time to 4.2%. This will be yet another reason for the Fed to tighten monetary policy faster than the market currently anticipates. Thus, geopolitics is clearly on the dollar's side at the moment, and key indicators influencing the Fed's monetary policy are also in the dollar's favor.

We do not expect significant growth for the American currency in 2026, but in the first half of the year, almost everything is falling in its favor. Modest growth for the U.S. dollar is possible, but in the long term, any increase in the currency will be a correction. Let's remember that Bitcoin corrected for three months before the new decline, and many traders did not believe in a new crash. However, the correction ended, and Bitcoin fell again. The same could happen with the dollar. It may continue to correct for another six months, but the global fundamental backdrop still points to a rather cloudy future for the greenback.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past five trading days, as of June 9, is 63 pips, which is considered "average." We anticipate that the pair will move between levels 1.1480 and 1.1606 on Tuesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned upward, indicating a trend change to bullish. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone and has formed two "bearish" divergences, warning of the onset of a downward correction that is still not complete. On Friday, it entered the oversold zone, warning of a possible end to the correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1536

S2 – 1.1475

S3 – 1.1414

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1597

R2 – 1.1658

R3 – 1.1719

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, presumably a correction within the context of a global upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, with only the geopolitical factor regularly supporting it. For prices located below the moving average, shorts may be considered with targets at 1.1480 and 1.1475. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets at 1.1719 and 1.1780. The market continues to pull away from geopolitical factors, but in recent weeks, the dollar has been in demand as hopes for peace in the Middle East have weakened.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channels within which the pair will stay for the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates an approaching trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The American dollar has been feeling quite well in recent weeks, but the market is all about waves and cycles. After a bullish cycle, a bearish one follows, and trends depend on the strength of each cycle. For the EUR/USD instrument, we have seen a complete five-wave trend segment, so it is now permissible to expect the formation of a bullish segment. Can the American news background support the euro and pound against the dollar? Let's sort it out.

Last week, a considerable amount of important statistical data was released in America, but the market hardly noticed most of it. Only the Nonfarm Payrolls report garnered attention. Consequently, the market continues to filter many reports, and the dollar cannot count on strong support from economic data. This week in America, a May inflation report will be released, and only this report may elicit a market reaction similar to that of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Market participants expect U.S. inflation to continue rising, bringing the Federal Reserve closer to tightening monetary policy. Core inflation is expected to spike from 4.2%, while the core rate may rise to 2.9%. If the actual figures turn out to be higher, it will further bolster the market's "hawkish" expectations. This is a supportive factor for the dollar. Therefore, for us to build a bullish wave set, we need inflation to at least remain within the projected range.

My readers may also pay attention to the PPI report on Thursday. This index will show how much producers have raised prices in May, which will naturally be reflected in subsequent inflation reports. The logic is the same: the higher inflation, the greater the chances of a further strengthening of the American currency.

In addition, the market will certainly continue to closely watch geopolitical developments. It is now even more interesting to see if Trump's latest promise of ending the conflict with Iran will materialize soon. So far, I see only regular rocket attacks in the region. However, if it happens, it will be much easier for the euro and pound to rise. The dollar still enjoys its status as a "safe haven," but aside from that, it currently has few strong advantages.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within a bullish trend segment, while in the shorter term, it is within a downward trend segment that may already be complete. In my view, this is a good time to try to form long positions. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.1513 mark, which corresponds to 76.4% on the Fibonacci scale, combined with the completed appearance of the downward trend segment, suggests that the instrument will transition to forming a bullish wave set with targets around the 17 figure and higher.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer. Currently, the instrument has formed three downward waves, while the EUR/USD instrument has formed five. Therefore, the pound may be limited to constructing a corrective structure, and both currency pairs may begin building bullish trend segments. At this point, it is only an assumption, but a probable one. If correct, the instrument will start rising with targets around the 35 figure and above. Market participants currently have a good opportunity to buy.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to play because they often require changes.
2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, nor can there ever be. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The British pound begins a new week on a somewhat gloomy note. Last week ended with a predicted collapse, but not due to the Nonfarm Payrolls report, rather because of the wave analysis. I mentioned earlier that single corrective waves are rare. Therefore, the GBP/USD instrument was expected to form at least a three-wave structure. The decline in quotes on Friday led to the formation of wave 3 or C. Based on all of the above, the pound may improve its position in the near future, and the European currency, which is presumably completing its downward wave set, may aid it in this.

What interesting events await us in the UK this week? Virtually nothing. Only some reports will be released on Friday that deserve attention, but even those are unlikely to affect the pound's short-term prospects or the wave structure. The British news background ranks third after geopolitics and American data, so it receives little attention. On Friday, reports on GDP and industrial production for April will be released in the UK. The values reported are likely to be weak again. Therefore, the pound cannot expect significant support.

However, it currently has a favorable wave structure and possibly even geopolitical factors, though it's hard to believe. I have frequently stated that geopolitics largely supports the U.S. dollar, but the dollar cannot rely solely on this factor to sustain market trust. Currently, Donald Trump continues to insist that an agreement with Iran is nearly achieved. Although there is no trust in the American president, according to the theory of probability, he cannot constantly make false or misleading statements. Therefore, sooner or later, Trump will be right about the conflict's resolution, and the market may occasionally listen to him. Why not now, when the wave analysis is favorable for both the euro and the pound?

Based on all of the above, geopolitics and the American news background will be significant for the GBP/USD instrument this week. The pound has chances for growth, but a successful attempt to break through the 33 figure (the low of wave 1 or A) will indicate that wave 3 or C may take a more extended form.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within a bullish trend segment, while in the shorter term, it is within a downward trend segment that may already be complete. In my view, now is a good time to try to form long positions. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.1513 mark, which corresponds to 76.4% on the Fibonacci scale, combined with the completed appearance of the downward trend segment, suggests that the instrument will transition to building a bullish wave set with targets around the 17 figure and higher.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer. Currently, the instrument has formed three downward waves, while the EUR/USD instrument has formed five. Therefore, the pound may be limited to constructing a corrective structure, and both currency pairs may begin building bullish trend segments. At this point, it is only an assumption, but a probable one. If correct, the instrument will start rising with targets around the 35 figure and above.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to play because they often require changes.
2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, nor can there ever be. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The European currency found itself in a knockout at the end of last week, but may rise from the ashes shortly. As I mentioned, the wave structure of the downward segment of the EUR/USD trend looks complete, so the European currency may build a bullish wave set in the near future. Undoubtedly, the strengthening of the euro will largely depend on geopolitical factors. Therefore, if Iran and the U.S. manage to agree on a memorandum of understanding, negotiate another ceasefire, and unlock the Strait of Hormuz, it will provide significant support for all risk currencies, including the pound and the euro. Conversely, if the conflict persists along with the blockade of the strait, the European currency may only anticipate a corrective wave set, after which a new impulsive downward segment of the trend will begin.

This week, there will be several important events in the European Union, but I will focus my attention on the most crucial one – the European Central Bank meeting. At the beginning of the week, the market is confident that the ECB will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. This has been reiterated recently by several ECB officials, although not all. There may be a few opponents of tightening monetary policy on the ECB Board, but the "hawks" are likely to prevail.

In my opinion, an increase in ECB rates will support the euro, which is currently set on a bullish trajectory, regardless. The market often prices events in advance; however, this is not the case now, as demand for the euro has been declining in recent weeks. Therefore, the ECB's policy tightening, already known, has not yet been priced in by market participants. If this assumption is correct and geopolitics does not lead to a new collapse, the euro could have good prospects ahead.

It is also important to consider what signals the ECB and Christine Lagarde are sending to the market. The central bank may raise rates once, or it may be preparing for a whole cycle of increases, given that inflation in the EU has been rising for five consecutive months. The conflict in the Middle East is not ending and is much closer to escalation than to a peace agreement. Consequently, oil prices are unlikely to decrease in the near term, and inflation may continue to accelerate.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within a bullish trend segment, while in the shorter term, it is within a downward trend segment that may already be complete. In my view, this is a good time to try to establish long positions. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1513 mark, which corresponds to 76.4% on the Fibonacci scale, combined with the completed appearance of the downward trend segment, suggests that the instrument will transition to forming a bullish wave set with targets around the 17 figure and higher.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer. Currently, the instrument has formed three downward waves, while EUR/USD has formed five. Therefore, the pound may be limited to constructing a corrective structure, and both currency pairs may begin building bullish trend segments. At this point, it is only an assumption, but a probable one. If correct, the instrument will start rising with targets around the 35 figure and above. Market participants currently have a good opportunity to buy.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to play because they often require changes.
2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, nor can there ever be. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The weakening of the Japanese currency is justified and well-founded, considering recent events in the Middle East. As is known, Japan is a net importer of energy resources; therefore, the latest round of Middle Eastern confrontation has had a negative impact on the yen. At the start of Monday's trading, global oil prices rose by more than 5% — in particular, the cost of a barrel of Brent oil surged above $98 (the first time since June 3).

As is known, Iran and Israel exchanged rocket strikes within a day, thus jeopardizing the fragile truce in the Middle East. Against the backdrop of a sharp surge in anti-risk sentiment and rising oil prices, the USD/JPY pair climbed to the middle of the 160 range.

However, buyers could not consolidate in this price area. After the price settled at 160.40, sellers seized the initiative in the pair. The yen gradually strengthened and eventually returned to the 159 range.

Interestingly, the pair began to decline for nearly the same reason it previously rose. Only the sign "minus" changed to a "plus." Initially, the market reacted to the risks of further escalation and the expansion of conflict in the Middle East; however, signals of possible de-escalation soon emerged. In other words, the geopolitical agenda remains the key driver for USD/JPY, but its tone has shifted from alarming to more positive.

First, the United States did not support the escalation scenario, signaling that the basic scenario for developments is diplomacy. Donald Trump refrained from making threats against Tehran and urged Israel not to retaliate for the Iranian rocket attack. And although the Israeli side "disobeyed" the White House (the IDF attacked Iranian facilities overnight), Washington continues to insist on de-escalation. On Monday, Trump stated on his social media that Israel and Iran "are striving for a truce."

Second, de-escalation signals also came from Tehran. Essentially, Iran announced the cessation of rocket strikes against Israel. According to media reports, representatives of the Israeli leadership and the U.S. previously relayed to Tehran that in the event of a halt to attacks, retaliatory strikes would also be stopped. Judging by the Iranian armed forces' statement, this offer was accepted: Tehran officially announced the cessation of operations. According to Israeli Channel 12, after this announcement, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu held another phone call, thereby "cementing" the agreements reached. According to the NYT, the Israeli Prime Minister instructed the military to stop preparations for a new attack on Iran.

Against the backdrop of these messages, the USD/JPY pair fell nearly 50 pips, retreating from five-week highs.

An additional factor putting pressure on the pair is the risk of currency intervention. After all, the level of 160.00 is a kind of "red line" for the Japanese authorities. It was here at the end of April (when USD/JPY jumped to 160.70) that the Japanese Ministry of Finance deployed a record 11.7 trillion yen from its foreign exchange reserves to strengthen the national currency. The fact that the pair has returned to local highs indicates that the entire effect of the spring inflows has been completely neutralized.

Previously, in 2022–2024, actual (not verbal) interventions also occurred near price ranges of 150-160, which formed what traders refer to as a "range memory." Therefore, the market may begin to reduce long positions in anticipation of approaching the upper boundary of this range — in this case, the aforementioned level of 160.70.

Given the current circumstances, one should not underestimate the risk of renewed currency intervention. A weak yen drives up imported inflation in Japan, increasing business and household expenses for purchasing energy resources, thereby nullifying government efforts for budgetary support to the population. Apparently, Prime Minister Sanae Takaiichi and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama are under serious political pressure within the country, as they have recently significantly tightened their rhetoric, stating their readiness to "take decisive measures" against excessive volatility and speculative movements in exchange rates.

It is also worth noting that just last Friday (June 5), the Japanese parliament passed an additional budget of 3.11 trillion yen (approximately $19 billion) in an urgent vote. The Takaiichi government undertook this just two months after the approval of the main annual budget. The devaluation of the yen, in this context, intensifies the burden and partially negates the stimulus package's effect, since rising prices for imported energy and raw materials increase the real cost of the budget and reduce purchasing power, diminishing the multiplier effect of additional government spending. It is evident that further USD/JPY growth may prompt retaliatory measures by the Japanese authorities.

Thus, long positions on the pair seem risky despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Trump's peacekeeping efforts appear to be yielding some results — at least in terms of holding back further escalation. Moreover, the USD/JPY pair is approaching a high-risk zone, increasing the likelihood of currency intervention. Under these conditions, it would be advisable to adopt a wait-and-see position on the pair: further growth is associated with heightened risks, while the fundamental prerequisites for a sustainable reversal have yet to materialize.

The combination of rising geopolitical risks and strong U.S. macroeconomic data created an ideal environment for the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Oil prices rose amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Iran is dictating its terms to the White House. It demands payment for the transit of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and links the deal with Washington to Israel's commitment not to attack Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon. Why?

Dynamics of U.S. presidential ratings

Tehran is skillfully playing on Trump's desires. The U.S. president is under pressure from American voters who are extremely dissatisfied with events in the Middle East. Republicans risk losing elections in the fall. It is not surprising that the White House is trying in every way to tame militant Israel.

However, Netanyahu has his own elections. The opposition calls him an American puppet and claims that he has sold Israel's sovereignty.

As a result, a Gordian knot is created, which Trump has yet to untangle. This indicates further closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the risk of a rally in Brent prices and strengthening the U.S. dollar amid talks of an increase in the federal funds rate. The futures market indicates a 75% probability that this will happen in 2026. The chances of two acts of monetary restriction are estimated at 32%.

Dynamics of speculative positions on the U.S. dollar

High demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are far from the only strong points for the "bears" on EUR/USD. The U.S. economy looks much better than the European one, partly because of its geographic distance from the two largest armed conflicts of the 21st century — in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Strong data on the U.S. labor market confirms this. From March to May, private-sector employment grew by an average of 188,000 jobs. This marks the indicator's dynamics returning to their highest levels since March 2024. Thus, the difficulties in the labor market at the end of 2025, when the Fed was lowering rates, were temporary, driven by tariffs, anti-immigration policies, and mass cuts in government employment. These difficulties have now been overcome.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD is attempting to find a bottom for the "bulls" after the most significant blow in three months. Key resistances are near the pivot level of 1.1555 and the lower boundary of fair value at 1.1575. A rebound from these levels will provide a basis for increasing previously opened shorts.

Donald Trump was disappointed by the decline in stock indices in response to strong U.S. labor market data. In his view, the S&P 500 should be rising, yet it fell. Investors were frightened by the potential increase in the federal funds rate, although in reality, the rate needs to be lowered. Investors ignored the words of the White House owner — the Nasdaq Composite recorded its worst daily performance in over a year. Its decline provided temporary support to BTC/USD.

Dynamics of Bitcoin and Nasdaq

Prior to this, Trump stated that the deal with Iran was at the final stages of negotiations. However, other information was coming from Tehran. Supposedly, there was no progress in the talks, and payment was required for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is unlikely to be pleased by this news. The U.S. president is trying to downplay the resumption of hostilities between the Islamic Republic and Israel. He is very eager to sign a peace agreement, and his opponents are taking advantage of this.

Trump's words no longer command trust, and along with them, Bitcoin's trust is also diminishing. The drop in BTC/USD by more than half from record highs has forced crypto funds to struggle to survive. Their market value has fallen from a peak of $134 billion to $72 billion. As a result, companies that promised never to sell tokens face a difficult choice: either reduce their holdings or default.

Dynamics of crypto fund capitalization

The first to falter was the industry leader — Strategy by Michael Saylor. The company sold Bitcoin for $2.5 million for the first time in four years. While this amount is small relative to the volume of holdings, the mere fact of it triggered an avalanche of sell-offs.

Investors withdrew $4 billion from Bitcoin-focused ETFs during the longest historical streak of 12 consecutive days of outflows from specialized exchange-traded funds. They are reallocating capital to the U.S. stock market, favoring artificial intelligence technologies over digital assets. It is not surprising that the Nasdaq Composite's retreat allowed BTC/USD to find a bottom. However, I do not think the crowd will continue to sell equity securities. They will likely buy the dip very soon.

Technically, on the daily chart, BTC/USD is testing fair value and forming an inside bar. Traders might consider setting pending buy orders from 63,800 and sell orders from 62,400. Activation of one of these will allow for a trade. A re-entry is permitted in case of a single execution of the stop order.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic three-wave bullish corrective structure. Following its completion, a new downward trend segment began to form, which, logically, should be impulsive in nature. If this assumption is correct, we should expect a five-wave structure within wave C of the higher degree, targeting levels below the 1.1400 level. Are there fundamental reasons to expect such a strong appreciation of the US dollar? Not definitive ones, but the market is gradually losing confidence in a deal between the United States and Iran, which is supporting sellers.

The EUR/USD pair changed very little during Monday's session, and price fluctuations remained limited. This is neither surprising nor unusual, as there were no economic releases or major events scheduled today, while the market is increasingly paying less attention to geopolitical headlines.

Today, Iran and Israel exchanged new missile strikes, the first such attacks since the temporary ceasefire was established. Therefore, in my view, both sides continue to move steadily toward further escalation of the conflict or, at the very least, a prolonged and exhausting confrontation—not toward a peace agreement. As a result, the U.S. dollar remains the preferred currency among market participants, while today's minor decline in the dollar should be viewed as nothing more than a correction following Friday's rally.

However, it is also possible that the dollar's advance has already ended, as EUR/USD has completed a five-wave decline. Naturally, the downward trend segment could become more extended and complex if geopolitical developments continue to signal a lack of progress toward resolving the Middle East conflict. Nevertheless, from a wave-analysis perspective, the five-wave structure appears complete. Therefore, at least three corrective waves to the upside can be expected.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to insist that a deal with Iran could be reached in the near future and has even asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to launch retaliatory strikes against Iran. Notice how the U.S. president's rhetoric has changed: from "we will destroy Iran" to "please do not strike Iran; we need a deal."

The White House leader clearly understands that the longer the conflict lasts, the lower his chances of maintaining full political control in the United States. Elections are only five months away, while Trump's approval ratings—and, consequently, those of the Republican Party—continue to deteriorate. Trump urgently needs to bring the conflict to an end, declare victory, and sign a nuclear agreement. It increasingly appears that Washington may have to make the key concessions during the negotiations.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a bullish trend segment (lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a downward trend segment that may already be complete.

In my opinion, the current environment offers a reasonable opportunity to consider long positions. A failed attempt to break below the 1.1513 level, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, combined with the apparent completion of the downward trend segment, suggests that the instrument may begin forming a new bullish wave sequence targeting the 1.1700 level and above.

On the higher time frame, a bullish trend segment remains visible, followed by the development of a corrective wave structure. In the near future, wave C is expected to form with targets near 1.1352, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C structure is completed, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and frequently undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be absolute certainty regarding market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

The EUR/USD pair spent two weeks trading within Imbalance 13, attempting to form a buy signal within that zone. However, the bulls failed to find sufficient grounds for a new advance, and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report effectively invalidated their efforts. As a result, the pair fell well below Imbalance 13, rendering this pattern invalid. The only active signal that remains is the one formed within Imbalance 15, but it is a bearish signal within what is still considered a bullish trend.

Naturally, I am not suggesting that readers avoid buying the U.S. dollar. The U.S. currency has been in demand throughout 2026, which means its appreciation may continue. However, in my view, once the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, the dollar will lose a significant portion of its appeal among traders.

Unfortunately, there are still no signs that the conflict in the Middle East is nearing an end, and Tehran and Washington remain unable to find common ground. On Monday, Iran carried out its first strikes against Israel in two months in response to Tel Aviv's attack on Beirut, once again putting negotiations and a potential peace agreement at risk. However, such developments are no longer particularly surprising, as both sides regularly carry out strikes and appear more concerned with avoiding any display of weakness than with preserving the negotiation process. As a result, the dollar continues to enjoy preference among traders due to geopolitical considerations.

In the near future, market sentiment and the direction of the pair will continue to depend primarily on geopolitical developments. If Tehran and Washington ultimately sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire, and make progress on the nuclear issue, the bears may be forced to retreat, allowing the euro and the pound to resume their upward movement. However, the probability of such an optimistic scenario appears to be declining with each passing day.

Under the current circumstances, traders may focus on bearish patterns. A new bearish imbalance may be formed by the end of today's session. However, if an agreement between Iran and the United States is eventually reached, the euro could resume its advance in line with the broader bullish trend despite the presence of bearish patterns. At this stage, however, it remains unclear how far the euro may decline before that occurs. The current technical picture now provides considerably stronger support for the U.S. dollar.

Once again, I must emphasize that the entire rally in the U.S. dollar between January and March was driven primarily by geopolitical developments. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and bulls dominated trading for more than a month. At present, the likelihood of reaching an agreement appears to be declining once again, while the market remains highly skeptical of any reports suggesting a quick resolution to the conflict or a comprehensive agreement between Iran and the United States. Consequently, geopolitics continues to exert underlying pressure on EUR/USD.

There was no meaningful economic data on Monday. The first notable event of the week will arrive on Wednesday with the release of the U.S. inflation report. In the eurozone, the European Central Bank will hold its policy meeting on Thursday, which could support the bulls, as the ECB is highly likely to decide in favor of further monetary tightening.

Bulls still have numerous reasons to remain active in 2026, and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not significantly reduced them. From a structural and long-term perspective, Trump's policies, which contributed to the sharp decline of the dollar last year, have not fundamentally changed. In the coming months, the U.S. dollar may periodically strengthen due to risk-off flows, but this factor requires continued escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. I still do not believe in the emergence of a sustained bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar has received temporary support from the market, but what factors can provide bears with long-term momentum?

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Industrial Production (06:00 UTC).
• United States – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 8 contains only two secondary events. Therefore, the impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop changed sharply three months ago, but the broader trend cannot yet be considered invalidated or completed. Therefore, bulls may well resume their advance in the near term if they receive even modest support from geopolitical developments.

At present, traders can only maintain short positions initiated from Imbalance 15 and wait for new patterns to emerge. The decline in the pair is being prolonged by objective factors, although without the strong U.S. labor market and unemployment data, the support zone of Imbalance 13 would most likely have held. However, it failed to hold, giving bears an opportunity to launch a more substantial offensive. Geopolitics remains the key driver.

The GBP/USD pair has an excellent opportunity to continue its decline after reacting to Bearish Imbalance 19 following two weeks of trading within it. Undoubtedly, Friday's bearish momentum was fueled by U.S. economic data, which turned out to be unexpectedly strong. I believe few market participants expected such robust Nonfarm Payrolls figures for April and May. However, the U.S. labor market in 2026 is performing considerably better than it did last year, which continues to support the U.S. dollar.

Geopolitical developments are also currently favoring the dollar, as Tehran and Washington remain unable to sign even an interim agreement concerning peace and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the dollar remains in a more advantageous position compared to the euro and the pound. Although the current chart structure appears fairly straightforward and points toward further downside in the pair, I would caution traders against drawing overly confident conclusions.

On Friday, the dollar received substantial support from the market, but no one knows how events in the Middle East will develop. If an unexpected breakthrough occurs and Donald Trump ultimately reaches an agreement with Iran, demand for the safe-haven dollar could immediately begin to decline. Thus, the bears have received an excellent opportunity to continue their offensive, but sustaining this momentum will require continued geopolitical support. The worse the geopolitical situation becomes, the more favorable it is for the dollar.

Overall, the situation in the Middle East is currently better than it was just a few months ago when the parties were engaged in full-scale military confrontation. However, the balance can shift in the opposite direction at any moment. Over the past several weeks, we have witnessed numerous potential escalations in the Middle East, and only the reluctance of both sides to engage in active military operations has prevented a renewed conflict.

In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's sharp declines this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still in place and could be extended for another 60 days. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and any perceived progress in negotiations is based largely on statements from Donald Trump. Iran maintains a completely different position. The situation continues to fluctuate between improvement and deterioration. For now, the market retains some confidence that an agreement can still be reached, but that confidence is not unlimited.

The current chart picture is as follows. Bullish Imbalance 18 generated a reaction from price, but Bearish Imbalance 19 ultimately produced a sell signal as well. Therefore, the technical outlook shifted to bearish in a single day. However, it could reverse again in the coming days, as geopolitical developments have recently been changing several times a day.

The economic calendar provided no meaningful information on Monday. Traders will have to wait another day or two before new economic data begins to arrive. There is certainly no shortage of geopolitical headlines, but the market is currently unwilling to react to secondary news. Today, reports emerged of Iranian strikes against Israel, yet GBP/USD is rising, which means the dollar is weakening.

The broader fundamental backdrop remains such that, from a long-term perspective, I continue to expect further weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States changes little in this regard. Geopolitical tensions have temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's safe-haven status over the past two months, but the overall environment for the U.S. currency remains less than favorable.

If the U.S. economy gains additional momentum in 2026, the Federal Reserve resumes its monetary tightening cycle, and the conflict between the United States and Iran evolves into a prolonged confrontation, then the dollar could indeed target the 1.3100–1.3000 level. However, in my opinion, the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar cannot change solely because of one strong Nonfarm Payrolls report.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 9 contains only one event, which is unlikely to attract significant market attention. Therefore, the impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

For the British pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish; however, the most recent signal generated is a sell signal. Therefore, in the near term, provided that geopolitical developments do not interfere, bears may continue their attack toward the lows of May 18 and March 31. Liquidity could be taken from those swing lows, after which, if geopolitical conditions become more favorable, bulls may once again take control.

At present, it is difficult to imagine that the conflict between Iran and the United States will be resolved in the near future. Therefore, the pound's upward potential remains relatively limited.