Crude oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel in the near term amid a lack of diplomatic progress in the US‑Iran conflict. OCBC Bank says in a report that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain global supplies.

OCBC analysts forecast oil prices around $100 through mid‑2026. A return to previous levels is not expected before early 2027, as global logistics chains gradually recover.

The collapse of shipping in the region that accounts for about one‑fifth of global oil consumption is forcing Gulf producers to cut output. Tanker traffic through the strait has fallen to minimal levels due to security risks and mandatory inspections by Iranian forces. The current market situation is assessed as a “moderately severe” supply shock. The odds are very much in favor of a further rally.

Oil releases from international strategic reserves and the use of alternative pipelines could offset up to 10 million barrels per day. However, these measures are insufficient to cope with the shortfall if protracted shipment disruptions from Middle Eastern crude persist. Limited transit by individual vessels is not enough to fully stabilize the supply-demand balance. 

A sustained rally in oil prices could trigger a recession in the US by weakening consumer spending and tightening financial conditions. According to a Wells Fargo report, the US economy is on the verge of an energy shock amid sluggish job growth and headline inflation expected to exceed 3%.

Modeling confirms that a 50% surge in commodity costs cuts real household spending by about one percentage point. Such dynamics almost entirely offset the effect of existing tax breaks intended to stimulate domestic demand.

The report identifies a Brent price of $130 per barrel as a critical threshold for maintaining current consumption rates. If global oil prices remain at that level for several months, businesses and households will have to revise investment plans and cut hiring.

An energy shock turns into a downturn if it is persistent, and household income growth deteriorates further. Falling real wages drag down consumption, which ultimately leads to declines in investment in fixed capital.

Being a net energy exporter gives the US some resilience compared with import-dependent countries. Nevertheless, rising producer profits and investment in infrastructure will occur more slowly than the erosion of household purchasing power. 

On March 18, 2026, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that the S&P 500 index could fall to 6,300 points if macroeconomic indicators continue to weaken. The primary risk factors are high oil prices and geopolitical instability triggered by the military conflict with Iran.

The current decline in market quotes aligns with historical patterns observed during periods of major international upheaval. However, rising energy costs and overall uncertainty could hinder global growth and prompt the US Federal Reserve to delay monetary policy easing.

In a moderate shock scenario, the bank expects a contraction in stock valuation multiples amid market pessimism. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive long-term outlook for the stock market. The main supporting factor is corporate profits growth driven by substantial investments in the artificial intelligence sector.

Technological spending by American corporations will remain a fundamental driver of returns in the long run. Greater clarity regarding the Fed’s actions and the situation in the Middle East is anticipated by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the ongoing influence of AI on the economy may continue to exert pressure on asset market valuations.

On March 18, 2026, European Commissioner Dan Jorgensen officially rejected the proposal to resume purchases of Russian energy resources. According to TASS, the EU representative described calls to restore imports as a mistake and reaffirmed the bloc's commitment to completely ceasing Russian energy imports in the long term.

Jorgensen emphasized that the European Commission has taken a definitive stance on the region's future energy balance. As the EU commissioner noted, "The message is clear: in the future, we will not import a single molecule from Russia."

Earlier, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever characterized the current state of the European industry, particularly the chemical sector, as critical. According to his report, the number of closed enterprises in the industry has increased sixfold over the past four years. As a result of the energy crisis, Europe has lost 10% of its production capacity.

On March 14, 2026, Belgium's prime minister called for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine to save the economy. However, Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot criticized the initiative, accusing his colleague of undermining European solidarity and weakening the bloc's overall political strategy.

On March 11, 2026, executives from ExxonMobil and Chevron informed US President Donald Trump during a meeting at the White House about the risks of a global energy crisis. According to The Wall Street Journal, the primary threat identified is the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran amid an escalating military conflict.

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods pointed out that the combination of price volatility and a shortage of oil products would lead to a sharp increase in gasoline prices. He added that releasing strategic reserves might not be sufficient to overcome fuel shortages.

Industry representatives believe the only solution is to unblock transportation routes, which would require ending the joint US-Israeli operation in Iran. Due to supply disruptions, American refineries are already facing technological challenges.

Retail fuel prices in the United States are rising, having already surpassed $5 per gallon in California. In response to the crisis situation, Donald Trump has decided to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil.

However, some market participants doubt that these measures will stabilize global prices in the long term. Representatives of the oil sector claim that the regulatory tools available to the administration are inadequate to compensate for large-scale disruptions in supply through key maritime chokepoints.

US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said on March 18, 2026, that demand for American crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) has risen. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the military conflict in Iran has forced foreign importers to seek alternative sources of supply.

According to Bloomberg, the strongest interest in US resources is coming from Asia‑Pacific countries. “Japan and regional partners have stepped up requests to purchase crude from Alaska’s fields to diversify risk,” Burgum said.

The military operation has caused acute shortages of gasoline and household gas in India and Bangladesh. Against the backdrop of severe shipment disruptions through the strait, US energy firms are seeing an influx of export orders from South Asian states and other market participants.

Despite the benefits for the upstream sector, the situation has complicated operations at US refineries. Rising production costs have set the stage for a sharp increase in gasoline prices in the United States, industry representatives earlier notified President Donald Trump. 

Stablecoins are rapidly shedding their status as a niche tool for crypto traders and becoming a macro-economically significant financial instrument. A new report from BCA Research finds that digital tokens now serve as a key link between global payments, dollar liquidity, and the short‑maturity US Treasury market.

Analysts note that the market capitalization of stablecoins — digital assets pegged to fiat currencies (primarily the US dollar) — has exploded. While total supply was about $30 billion in 2020, that figure tops $300 billion nowadays. 

As stablecoin issuers must back tokens with real reserves, they have been channeling large amounts of capital into low-risk liquid instruments: US Treasury bills, reverse-repo agreements, and bank deposits. As a result, crypto companies have quietly become important marginal buyers of short-term US government debt. BCA notes that growing token issuance can directly affect short-term interest rates by supplying fresh capital to the market.

At the same time, the geography of stablecoin use is shifting. The technology is being adopted rapidly in emerging markets suffering from high inflation, currency depreciation, and strict capital controls. In these regions, the digital dollar is taking on the role of a store of value, giving households and businesses access to dollar-denominated financial services outside the traditional banking system.

This trend not only cements the dollar’s global dominance but also creates serious challenges for emerging-market governments by boosting capital flight and displacing national currencies.

Stablecoin expansion is also putting pressure on the traditional banking sector. BCA points out that flows into digital dollars are draining deposits from classic banks — especially low-yield transactional accounts — forcing lenders into tougher competition for funding sources.

Although stablecoins’ share of global payments and total financial assets is still relatively small, BCA is confident that clear regulation and greater institutional participation will multiply the economic impact of the digital dollar over the coming decade.

According to a recent analytical note from Goldman Sachs, a sharp increase in oil prices, triggered by the military conflict in Iran and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to cost the global economy approximately 0.3% in lost GDP. Alongside the slowdown in economic growth, high commodity prices will fuel global inflation throughout the coming year.

The investment bank estimates that the energy crisis will add between 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points to the overall level of global inflation. Core inflation, which is stripped of volatile energy and food prices, is expected to show a weaker reaction, rising by only 0.1–0.2 percentage points. These figures are the result of the bank’s revised forecasts, which were made after key oil and gas shipping routes were paralyzed.

Despite the negative outlook, Goldman Sachs economists emphasize that the current shock is fundamentally different from the inflation surge of 2021–2022. The impact is localized exclusively in energy markets and does not affect broader logistics chains, as was the case during the pandemic.

The dependency of major economies on non-energy goods from the Middle East is minimal. Non-hydrocarbon exports from Gulf countries account for only about 1% of global trade. This suggests that significant production disruptions and a global commodity shortage due to the Iranian conflict are not anticipated, and that inflationary pressure will largely be contained to energy prices.

However, Goldman Sachs warns of ongoing risks. If military actions transition into a prolonged phase, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, oil prices could continue to rise. Extended supply disruptions could significantly amplify the negative effects, making inflation more stubborn and adding to the pressure on global economic growth.

The Trump administration has initiated a large-scale operation to draw down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, officially requesting the market to release 86 million barrels of crude oil through an exchange mechanism. This move opens the first phase of the previously announced release of 172 million barrels. The emergency measure is intended to stabilize global markets and reduce fuel prices, which have surged since the beginning of the US military operation in Iran.

The US Department of Energy expects the first shipments of crude oil by the end of next week. This intervention is part of a coordinated package with international partners, totaling 400 million barrels. The terms of the deal stipulate that recipient companies will be required to return the borrowed oil to the reserve with an additional "premium" in barrels. The deadline to submit bids for participation in the tender is 5:00 PM Central Time on March 17. In the long term, the White House plans to replenish the reserves by purchasing approximately 200 million barrels within the next year, which would create a 20% surplus relative to the current withdrawal volume.

The aggressive use of the SPR is directly linked to rising gasoline and aviation fuel prices within the United States, which is placing critical pressure on households ahead of the November midterm elections. With shipping paralyzed in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil traffic passes, the administration is leveraging reserves as a primary tool to combat the inflation shock.

Despite a temporary drop in oil futures prices in response to the news, analysts remain skeptical. Experts doubt that even such significant interventions can fully offset the structural deficit caused by the Persian Gulf blockade. The Department of Energy's strategy now officially prioritizes immediate relief for consumers in an effort to prevent the American economy from sliding into a recession.

The software sector, which powered the digital economy for decades, now faces a serious challenge. The adoption of autonomous “agent” AI tools has triggered a rapid re-pricing of assets. In a new Goldman Sachs report, “Top of Mind,” investors express grave concern that AI could “eat” the industry that created it by automating the coding process.

Despite the panic, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that established market players still have resilience. Deep integration into corporate workflows, vast troves of amassed data, and long‑term client contracts create protective barriers. Gabriela Borges of Goldman Sachs notes that industry giants are adapting as “fast followers,” embedding AI capabilities into existing platforms, so they do not cede their market share to aggressive startups.

However, Rick Sherlund of Sherlund Partners warns that having time to adapt does not guarantee success. The question is how radical the transformation companies must undergo to survive in a world where the cost of producing code is collapsing toward zero.

Investors are taking the approach of ruthless selectivity in the stock market. Market participants are no longer buying the sector as such; they choose firms that can demonstrate real AI monetization and steady earnings. Experts say software companies need to show a clear path to productivity gains from neural network integration to stabilize their stock quotes.

Despite the collapse in market value of many tech heavyweights, Goldman Sachs does not see a systemic threat to the credit market. Analysts emphasize that stress in tech bonds is unlikely to trigger a wave of defaults. Still, a fundamental shift is underway: as automation devalues the act of writing software, economic value is moving from the code itself to the intelligent services the platform provides.

Investors have absorbed the message: the market is splitting. Those unable to adjust their cost structures and product lines to the reality of agent‑based AI risk becoming obsolete.  

As global Brent crude prices test the psychological barrier of $100 per barrel amid the conflict with Iran, the US economy is showcasing a newfound structural resilience. The historical role of oil shocks as a definitive brake on US GDP is being reassessed: America's status as the world's largest oil producer has turned high prices into a double-edged sword.

Domestic production in the United States remains at a record high of 13.3 million barrels per day. This means that rising energy prices now serve as an internal incentive for oil-producing states such as Texas, New Mexico, and North Dakota. While American households experience "pain at the pump," the Permian Basin is seeing a surge in capital investment and an increase in high-paying jobs. According to current macro models, the traditional "tax" on consumers is now partially offset by an industrial boom in the energy sector. This makes the US much less vulnerable than during the crises of 1973 or 1979.

However, oil remains a key risk for the Federal Reserve's plans for a "soft landing" of the economy. Rising logistics costs are directly reflected in the prices of giants like Walmart and Amazon. To mitigate this "inflation tax," the International Energy Agency has initiated a record coordinated release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. A central element of this intervention was the Trump administration's commitment to release 180 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with Japan contributing an additional 80 million barrels.

Despite this unprecedented liquidity injection into the market, gasoline prices at $5 per gallon continue to undermine domestic consumer sentiment. While the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the key question for Washington is not about production capacity but rather the speed of momentum transfer. Economists now have to determine whether the "shale stimulus" in the US energy belt can outpace the destructive impact of high oil prices on the American middle class.

Markets continue to price in a risk premium, awaiting whether the extensive use of the SPR will be sufficient to keep core inflation in check until shipping normalizes in the Persian Gulf.

The escalation of military confrontation between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other is jeopardizing deliveries of critical materials for microelectronics. Reuters reports that South Korean manufacturers, which supply about two‑thirds of the global chip market, have voiced concerns about possible shortages of inert gases and rare metals. The main risks stem from supplies via Qatar, which has declared a state of emergency and suspended gas production.

A critical factor for the industry is a shortage of helium, which has no industrial substitute in semiconductor manufacturing. South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy has also flagged 14 raw-material items, including bromine, whose supplies depend on stability in the Persian Gulf. Disruptions to logistics through the Strait of Hormuz directly affect the region’s largest consumers — China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

The crisis creates long‑term risks for the AI sector. Tech industry representatives warn of potential freezes on data‑centre construction projects in the Middle East. Reduced investment activity in the region could lower global demand for high‑performance chips and slow AI model training.

The situation is worsened by a logistical blockade that has sent freight and marine insurance costs in the region sharply higher. Goldman Sachs analysts note that a protracted conflict will force tech giants, including Samsung and SK Hynix, to seek alternative commodity sources outside the Middle East. That will inevitably push up production costs and produce shortages of server components and consumer electronics parts. 

The US economy is transitioning to a phase of accelerated structural growth, largely fueled by investments in artificial intelligence. According to UBS forecasts, this growth remains narrowly focused and relies on the technology sector, while other industries show signs of stagnation.

According to UBS economist Jonathan Pingle, the economic expansion in 2026 is driven by high demand from affluent households. "Investment is concentrated in tech, and the stock market's boost to upper-income household spending," the expert emphasized. Other market segments appear weak, which poses a risk to the overall growth rate if the AI industry experiences a slowdown.

Additional support will come from fiscal measures under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the anticipated easing of monetary policy. The bank predicts two interest rate cuts in 2026, which would bring the Federal Reserve's target range to 3.00%-3.25% by December. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation remains at 3%, limiting the regulator's room for maneuver.

Uncertainty has increased with the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, whose nomination was sent to the Senate in March 2026. Rising energy prices and new import tariffs are exerting pressure on real household incomes. UBS warns that market volatility and trade disputes remain major obstacles to a long-term optimistic scenario.

The European Commission has demanded that the United States strictly adhere to G7 sanctions regarding Russian energy exports. European Commissioner for Economy Valdis Dombrovskis stated that Washington must stick to the established price cap, despite supply shortages caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil prices reached a four-year high of $119 per barrel due to supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Dombrovskis emphasized the importance of maintaining a price gap and proposed a complete ban on Russian crude oil shipments by sea. The EC believes that easing restrictions undermines support for Kyiv and contradicts the US goal of deterring Iran.

According to CNBC, the current volatility in the energy market is making Russia a beneficiary of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. Rising prices are directly increasing the Russian budget's revenues, offsetting the effects of Western sanctions. Brussels is particularly concerned about Washington's recent decision to grant India a 30-day license to purchase oil from Russia.

The US Treasury had previously explained that temporary exemptions were necessary to stabilize the global market and prevent a worldwide crisis. However, the EC insists on prioritizing sanctions pressure. Dombrovskis described retreating from agreed-upon rules as "counterproductive," noting that additional revenues enable Moscow to increase funding for its military operations.

The G7 countries are planning to release strategic oil reserves into the market to stabilize prices. This decision comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East that drove crude oil prices to $119 per barrel on March 9, 2026.

“We will monitor events closely and are prepared to take all necessary measures, including tapping strategic oil reserves to stabilize the market,” Roland Lescure, France's finance minister, stated. This measure aims to curb volatility following a sharp 25% increase in oil prices. However, according to analysts at the Financial Times, releasing hundreds of millions of barrels will not produce a long-term effect without a cessation of hostilities.

Morgan Stanley representative Martin Ratz described the situation as "the largest supply shock" in the industry's history. The current crisis surpasses the scale of disruptions seen during the Suez crisis of the 1950s. Utilizing reserves at this moment confirms the heightened stress in the global energy market.

As Paul Horsnell, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, noted, "It is very, very difficult to replace flows with stocks." Following statements from US President Donald Trump, Brent oil prices stabilized around $100. Investors interpreted his remarks as a sign of potential de-escalation in the Middle East.

China’s authorities have set an economic growth target for 2026 of 4.5–5.0%, Premier Li Qiang said at the opening of the National People’s Congress. The new target is the lowest in 35 years. In 2025, Beijing’s official goal was “around 5%,” and preliminary data indicate it was achieved.

The downward revision reflects a prolonged property sector crisis and weak domestic demand. External pressure on the world’s second-largest economy is rising amid growing geopolitical risks and threats to free trade. Li Qiang also pointed to structural problems, including an imbalance of excess supply and soft consumption, as well as labor market challenges.

According to a report from China’s Ministry of Finance, the 2026 budget deficit is planned at a record 4% of GDP, equivalent to 5.89 trillion yuan ($854 billion). Higher budget spending is linked to increased social benefits and the need for fiscal stimulus. Defence spending will rise 7% to 1.9 trillion yuan ($280 billion).

China’s long‑term strategy supposes doubling GDP per capita by 2035. To reach that goal, Beijing plans to accelerate the development of advanced technologies and strengthen its dominance in rare-earth supply chains. Goldman Sachs analysts expect China’s actual GDP growth in 2026 to be about 4.8%, supported by export recovery and state support. 

The US Treasury has issued a temporary 30‑day licence permitting India to purchase Russian oil already loaded on tankers at sea, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. The move is intended to help stabilize global energy markets amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

The relief applies only to cargoes that are already on vessels and en route. The Treasury said the measure is short‑term and designed to increase supply while regional tensions persist. The department also said the time limit should prevent Russia from gaining significant financial benefit from these transactions.

The need for additional shipments arose against the backdrop of US and Israeli military operations against Iran. Markets had already reacted to geopolitical risk with soaring prices: on March 5, 2026, Brent crude jumped to $85 per barrel. Goldman Sachs analysts had warned of a potential supply shortfall caused by disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Washington continues to use targeted licences to influence prices without lifting major sanctions. Indian refineries are expected to begin accepting cargoes in the coming weeks. US authorities will review the licence conditions after the 30‑day term expires, depending on market developments. 

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright tried to calm global markets, saying the current spike in oil prices is driven purely by a “fear premium,” not by any actual shortage of resources.

Speaking on CNN, the secretary stressed there is no global shortage of oil or natural gas and that investor panic over the war with Iran is temporary. Wright said the administration expects prices to slide back once shipping in the region gets back on track — a process that should take “weeks, not months.”

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical: over the past day, only tankers directly linked to Tehran have transited the key shipping lane. The blockade has already hit American motorists’ wallets — the national average gasoline price jumped about 16% over the week to $3.45 per gallon. Nevertheless, Wright said he is confident that gasoline will return to below $3 in the near future.

To restore logistics, the Trump administration is discussing a $20 billion ship reinsurance program and the possibility of direct naval escort of tankers by the US Navy. Wright also emphasized that the United States does not plan to strike Iran’s oil-and-gas infrastructure, seeking to avoid an actual global supply shortfall.

The secretary noted that recent attacks on Iranian fuel depots were an Israeli initiative, while US strategy remains focused on purely military operations.

The rollout of AI‑based management systems could be a key driver of operational efficiency in the hotel sector, according to a new Bernstein report. Analysts predict that a shift to “hyper-personalisation” will allow major chains such as Marriott International and IHG to boost margins notably by optimising direct sales and implementing attribute‑based inventory (ABS).

One of the main financial aims of AI transformation is to reduce dependence on online travel agencies (OTAs). With aggregator commissions running 15–30%, deploying proprietary AI agents enables hotels to retain up to 95% of booking revenue. Marriott has already invested more than $1.1 billion in 2026 in cloud infrastructure and an “agent network” that bypasses intermediaries’ interfaces and handles customer requests in their native languages.

Given that labour makes up roughly 45% of a hotel’s operating costs, automating routine tasks — from pillow selection to cleaning coordination — is viewed as a primary lever for lifting EBITDA. Experts estimate that hotels using AI for dynamic pricing and demand forecasting are already recording total revenue gains of about 17% versus competitors relying on traditional models.

Moving to systems that capture detailed attributes for each room (floor, noise level, and amenities) allows hotels to apply extra charges for specific features. Bernstein notes that this “digital shelf” model turns a standard room inventory into a flexible set of high-value assets. Over the long term, this should support steady RevPAR growth (revenue per available room) even amid stagnant travel volumes. 

Recently, China’s government unveiled an ambitious plan to use artificial intelligence to employ a record 12.7 million college graduates in 2026. The scale of the incoming jobseekers — larger than the population of Belgium — prompted Beijing to officially declare AI a key tool for “modernizing” jobs amid mounting demographic pressure.

Labor Minister Wang Xiaoping told a session of the National People’s Congress that the technology strategy is designed to offset “growing uncertainty” in the labor market. To create 12 million new urban jobs, the government will revise internship and training programs in favor of the electric vehicle sector, UAVs (the “low‑altitude economy”), and generative AI. The shift signals a decisive move away from mass production models toward high-tech industries.

Markets reacted cautiously: the CSI 300 closed the week at 3,842.15. Investors worry that state investment in AI may not deliver immediate results because of a deep skill gap among young people. Goldman Sachs analysts note that the near-term challenge of keeping unemployment around 5.5% remains critical while productivity could rise over the long term.

Beijing’s stance sharply contrasts with global fears that automation destroys jobs. Instead, China is betting that AI will be a net creator of vacancies and help stabilize social conditions. A key risk to the strategy is upcoming trade negotiations with the United States, which could restrict China’s access to the technologies needed to implement the program.