On April 15, 2026, US President Donald Trump officially announced his intention to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from office. The president plans to carry out a forced dismissal if the current central bank’s head refuses to step down voluntarily after a new chair is appointed.

In an interview with Fox Business Network, Trump said he is confident his nominee for the central bank’s leader will be confirmed as early as next week. The president has launched a review of Powell’s actions intended to establish professional incompetence and to detail the causes of recent negative developments in the financial sector. The White House links changes in the Federal Reserve Board directly to the need for an urgent correction of the country’s economic course and the restoration of confidence in financial institutions.

Trump explicitly demanded an immediate easing of interest rates once the new Fed chair takes office. He expects the incoming chair to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy to support domestic business and encourage consumer demand. The current inquiry into the Federal Reserve is meant to document regulatory failings and provide legal grounds for the reshuffling of the Board of Governors. The president’s ultimatum that Powell must quit underscores Washington’s intent to exert tight control over US borrowing costs.

Donald Trump confirmed significant damage to the global financial system caused by the six‑week hostilities in Iran and the area beyond it. The US president predicted market stabilization and a return of energy prices to pre‑crisis levels before the start of the midterm elections in fall 2026.

In an interview with Fox Business, Donald Trump commented on the current economic challenges: “Well, look, there will be a hit, because, you know, we’ve been going through this for six weeks now... but I think the economy will fully recover.” The US president stressed that the adverse effects of higher energy costs are being felt on every continent, but he said the pace of recovery would overcome the fallout of the crisis. The White House counts on a substantial drop in oil and gas prices to ease inflationary pressure on the global community in the coming months.

High fuel prices have become a critical domestic political issue ahead of the upcoming vote. Vice President J.D. Vance has officially confirmed the administration’s intention to actively engage in dialogue with Tehran to ease the financial burden on citizens. The US administration acknowledges the hardships posed by soaring gasoline prices and views a diplomatic settlement as a priority tool for normalizing the energy sector. Success in the talks with Iran would strengthen the ruling party’s position on the political stage.

Donald Trump has officially announced his intention to impose a 50% tariff on all Chinese goods if reports confirm that Beijing has supplied portable missile defense systems to Iran. The warning follows intelligence data revealing a potential expansion of military-technical cooperation between China and Tehran amid ongoing instability in the Middle East.

In an interview with Fox News, the US president expressed skepticism about the reliability of these reports while outlining the scale of the potential economic response. "I doubt they would do that... but if we catch them doing that, they get a 50% tariff, which is a staggering — that's a staggering amount," Trump stated. Despite China being one of the guarantors of the temporary ceasefire, any potential arms shipments could radically alter the dynamics of US-China relations, introducing significant uncertainty into global trade processes.

China's economy remains heavily dependent on Iranian exports, having accounted for over 80% of all sanctioned Iranian oil purchases in 2025. According to the Kpler analytics firm, Chinese tankers are among the few vessels that have maintained access to the Strait of Hormuz during the current maritime blockade. The rise in gasoline prices within China has already reached 11%, prompting government authorities to impose administrative limits on retail prices to stabilize the domestic market. Further escalation of the trade conflict with the US poses additional risks to China's energy security and the stability of its industrial sector.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright presented a forecast for the trajectory of global energy prices. The secretary anticipates that oil and other energy prices will reach their peak within the next few weeks. This trend is directly linked to the ongoing armed conflict in Iran.

In the longer term, after the active phase of the conflict ends, oil prices are expected to return to their prior fundamental levels. Restoring market balance will take time. Wright highlighted a direct relationship between the duration of the military conflict and the pace of subsequent economic stabilization.

Global oil prices rallied after fruitless US–Iran talks aimed at resolving the Middle East situation. On April 13, financial markets were overwhelmed by high volatility.

Crude prices at one point spiked more than 7%, topping $102 a barrel. Industry experts warn that if the crisis in Iran drags on, oil prices could develop a rapid rally.  

Goldman Sachs analysts do not rule out the possibility that commodity prices will set new record highs by the year's end. TASS reports that the outlook will depend on the parties’ willingness to engage in dialogue and on the stability of petroleum supplies from the crisis region. 

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China for the first quarter of 2026, the country's external trade has shown distinct mixed dynamics. The primary increase in trade volume has come from the European Union, where figures rose by 17.6% year-over-year. The total trade volume between Beijing and Brussels reached $212.4 billion, supported by a surge in Chinese exports to the European market, which rose by 21.1% compared to the previous year.

In contrast, the interaction between China and the United States is exhibiting a prolonged decline amid ongoing geopolitical and economic tensions. The total volume of bilateral trade during the reporting period fell by 16.6%, totaling $128.68 billion. The negative trend affected both sides, with Chinese exports to the US trimming by 16.3%. Current figures confirm a long-term trend of diminishing economic ties, following a substantial one-third drop in trade volume at the end of the previous fiscal year.

Stagnated trade relations with Washington is attributed to the imposition of tariffs on a wide range of goods, enacted in the spring of last year. In response, Beijing is actively diversifying its trade partnerships, strengthening strategic cooperation with alternative partners. Thus, trade volume between China and Russia increased by 14.8% in the first three months of 2026, reaching $61.25 billion. A significant portion of this growth came from Chinese exports, which added over 22.1%, making a substantial contribution to the structure of the external trade balance.

In March, the pace of consumer inflation in the US accelerated sharply. The main catalyst for the inflation surge was a jump in energy costs amid the escalation of the conflict with Iran, although such dynamics were broadly anticipated by market participants.

According to the US Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) spiked 3.3% year‑on‑year in March, up from 2.4% in February. The reading was slightly below the economists’ consensus of 3.4% but represented the largest increase since June 2022, when oil prices skyrocketed following the start of hostilities in Ukraine.

On a monthly basis, headline inflation jumped 0.9% versus 0.3% a month earlier (analysts had expected 1.0%). The key hit came in the energy segment: prices there surged 12.5% year‑on‑year, a sharp reversal after just a 0.5% rise in February.

Macroeconomic data for March drew market attention because it was the first to reflect the direct economic consequences of the conflict that began with joint US‑Israeli strikes on Tehran in late February. Iran responded by almost entirely blocking tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments. Although the US is a net energy exporter, the global nature of pricing pushed the average gasoline price at US pumps above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years.

Nevertheless, core inflation (core CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 2.6% year‑on‑year and 0.2% month‑on‑month, coming in below forecasts. Given the moderate behavior of core measures, analysts expect the Federal Reserve will not place excessive weight on the headline CPI jump when setting future monetary policy.

At the same time, markets are increasingly worried that a protracted Middle East war could force households to cut spending, which would eventually hit the labor market. So far, employment — another key indicator for the Fed — showed a sharp recovery last month, supporting hopes for stabilization.

With inflation remaining elevated, some economists no longer expect the US central bank to cut borrowing costs in 2026. Moreover, several Fed policymakers have already noted that rate hikes may be necessary under current conditions. 

The European Central Bank is being forced to accelerate its tightening of monetary policy as the Middle East crisis has pushed the eurozone into a classic stagflation trap, triggering a sharp rise in inflation amid slowing economic growth.

According to a new macroeconomic report from UBS titled "Prospects for the European Economy," the ECB is expected to deliver at least two interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each this year, with the baseline scenario projecting rates to reach 2.5% by September.

This shift is largely driven by persistently high fuel prices, which have already begun to seep into a broad range of consumer goods. UBS emphasizes that the balance of risks has now shifted toward earlier and more aggressive rate increases. The ECB Governing Council may raise interest rates as soon as its meeting on April 30 if it detects signs of second-round inflationary effects.

Frankfurt is faced with a difficult choice: attempting to curb imported energy inflation through high rates poses a direct risk of stifling the already weak economic growth in Europe. Analysts warn that their forecasts could prove "too soft" if the logistical blockade in the Persian Gulf extends into the latter half of the year.

While the ECB prepares to tighten its stance, other European central banks are adopting a wait-and-see approach. The Bank of England is expected to take a prolonged pause, with its next significant action likely being a rate cut at the end of 2026.

The Swiss National Bank plans to keep interest rates steady at zero until mid-2027, as a strong franc provides the country with a reliable shield against imported inflation. The Swedish Riksbank will maintain its rate at 1.75%, relying on falling domestic inflation.

A key trigger for the ECB remains negotiations in Islamabad concerning the deblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. If oil transit is not restored, Frankfurt may sacrifice economic growth and raise interest rates more than twice to safeguard price stability in the eurozone.

In the context of global macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, gold is cementing its status as a key strategic asset. According to a new report from BCA Research, the metal’s high liquidity and diversification potential fully compensate investors for the lack of yield even during periods of high interest rates.

The team of analysts led by BCA’s chief strategist Juan Correa notes that the gold market remains exceptionally deep. Its liquidity directly competes with major currency pairs, making the metal “cheap to trade” and an effective tool for rapid portfolio rebalancing during periods of market stress.

When examining optimal investment instruments, the analysts warn against an overreliance on gold‑mining stocks. Miners’ shares provide operational leverage to the metal’s price but introduce specific corporate risks to a portfolio. For “pure” hedging, BCA recommends using physically backed bullion ETFs or direct spot positions — these deliver excess returns without exposure to the volatility of the mining sector’s balance sheets.

The strategic value of gold is reinforced by its unique volatility profile. Unlike traditional assets, whose mutual correlations typically spike toward 1.0 during crises, gold has historically maintained low or even negative correlation with stocks and bonds. That makes it a “reliable diversifier” capable of effectively mitigating overall portfolio drawdowns.

BCA’s analysts conclude that fiscal expansion and crises in the Middle East have decisively shifted the market’s focus: institutional investors are no longer debating “whether to hold gold” but are addressing the practical questions of how to integrate it. The precious metal is no longer viewed as a merely defensive bet and has become a fundamental component of a growth strategy, providing uncorrelated returns when traditional hedging instruments fail.

Global energy markets are facing a new wave of supply disruptions, yet the fiscal safety net that protected consumers during the crises of 2022-2023 has nearly been depleted.

According to a new analytical report from Morgan Stanley, governments have historically utilized fiscal policy to cushion the impact of oil price volatility. However, the current combination of high government debt relative to GDP and rising borrowing costs has critically narrowed the scope for new large-scale interventions.

Authorities are faced with a tough political choice: pass the burden of rising energy prices onto households or absorb the blow on government budgets. The investment bank estimates that in 2023, direct and indirect energy subsidies accounted for 1.5-2.0% of global GDP, primarily driven by aggressive price controls in the eurozone. Today, the available "fiscal space" has become significantly narrower.

Morgan Stanley economists note that the opportunities for new fiscal expansion are severely limited. Governments are expected to rely solely on internal adjustments within existing budgets, redistributing current expenditure items or implementing targeted tax compensations. The introduction of new support packages through increased deficits is highly unlikely. In developed markets, where free pricing predominates, the withdrawal of government interventions will lead to a quicker rise in consumer inflation compared to developing countries.

The report highlights significant regional discrepancies in response to price pressures. Asia is currently leading the way in mitigating the effects of the energy shock. While global oil prices in national currencies have surged by 53% over the past month, domestic fuel prices in the Asian region have added only 16%. Local fiscal measures have absorbed between 30% to 50% of the initial price shock.

In contrast, Europe has entered a phase of stringent "fiscal restraint." The reimposition of strict EU budgetary rules and the rising cost of sovereign borrowing mean that large-scale responses comparable to the subsidies of 2022 will only materialize in the event of a severe recession scenario.

For energy-importing developing countries, expensive oil creates a classic "double deficit" problem, deteriorating both the current account balance and the budget balance simultaneously. Analysts warn that while these markets may be able to smooth price volatility in the short term, strict fiscal constraints will inevitably force them to roll back programs that support domestic prices.

On April 9, 2026, European Commission representative Anna-Kaisa Itkonen stated that a swift resolution to the ongoing fuel crisis is an illusion. According to TASS, the agency is urging preparation for an extended period of high volatility in energy markets. The primary factor contributing to this instability remains the EU's reliance on supplies through critical maritime routes in the Middle East, the security of which is under threat.

Statistics from the European Commission indicate that approximately 40% of the region's imported aviation fuel comes through the Strait of Hormuz. The navigational crisis in this area poses a direct threat to the stable operation of the transportation sector in member countries. Moreover, the operational diversification of logistics requires significant time investments and a fundamental overhaul of existing foreign trade relationships.

Dependence on the Strait persists in other categories of hydrocarbons as well. Liquefied natural gas accounts for 8.5% of supplies along this route, while another 7% of imported oil also relies on the safe passage of vessels through the Persian Gulf. The current geopolitical landscape and limited options for alternative routes hinder a rapid decrease in fuel prices in the European market.

The European Commission also confirmed difficulties in establishing specific timelines for a complete abandonment of Russian resources. This includes halting purchases not only of oil and gas but also of nuclear fuel for power plants. As a result, the publication of a plan to ban imports of Russian oil has been officially delayed. The discussion on this matter, initially scheduled for April 15, has been postponed indefinitely by the union's leadership.

According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, the US economy is likely already in a recession. His conclusions are based on a new indicator dubbed the "Vicious Cycle Index" (VCI). The expert believes that this tool has provided a clear signal of the onset of a recession in the first quarter of 2026.

The VCI is grounded in the principles of the well-known Sahm Rule, which associates an economic downturn with a sharp increase in unemployment levels. Using this methodology, a recession is identified when the three-month moving average of the indicator rises by half a percentage point. Zandi has adapted this model to account for more profound structural changes in the labor market.

Unlike traditional methods, the VCI tracks a five-year moving average of the labor force participation rate. As of January this year, the indicator surpassed the critical threshold of one, signaling that the economy is entering a contraction phase due to an increase in the number of individuals who have effectively stopped searching for work.

Employment statistics in recent months have shown high volatility and instability. In March, the United States added 178,000 jobs, which technically exceeded analysts' expectations. However, this followed a sharp reduction in February, when the national labor market lost 92,000 positions.

Zandi notes that, excluding the healthcare sector, the US economy has been losing jobs for the past year. Additionally, the effects of recent military actions involving Iran are contributing further pressure to macroeconomic metrics. At present, specialists assess the odds of a deeper economic downturn as being 50-50.

On April 8, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced the start of a "golden age" for the Middle East on the Truth Social social media platform. The president expressed confidence in the potential for a large-scale recovery in Iran following the conclusion of active military hostilities.

The statement came after a two-week ceasefire agreement was reached between Washington and Tehran. The Pakistani government facilitated the negotiations, serving as a mediator to coordinate efforts between the parties in preparation for a long-term peace agreement.

Trump emphasized that the United States intends to assist in clearing the backlog of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to restore global trade routes. His administration plans to increase exports of industrial goods to the region while maintaining a presence to oversee compliance with the ceasefire terms.

Tehran presented a ten-point program, which the White House acknowledged as a reasonable platform for consultations in Islamabad. The agreement includes the resumption of safe shipping along the route that accounts for 20% of global hydrocarbon supplies.

Earlier, on March 21, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message to Iran's leadership, expressing hopes for overcoming current challenges. Stabilizing the situation in the Persian Gulf is viewed as a key factor in reducing volatility in energy markets and easing inflationary pressures.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index, which tracks the performance of the fifty largest companies across twelve eurozone countries, has dropped by more than 7% since the outbreak of the military conflict in Iran. In contrast, the American S&P 500 index has experienced a decline of less than 4% over the same period. According to Bloomberg analysis, the European equity market has proved much more sensitive to geopolitical escalations and rising energy prices.

Increased price volatility is prompting the European Central Bank to reassess its current monetary policy. Analysts highlight an end to the easing cycle and a potential shift towards interest rate hikes as early as April 2026. The energy shock is now directly impacting consumer inflation metrics, which requires prompt action from monetary authorities.

The prospects for the eurozone’s further economic recovery remain uncertain in light of the prolonged military conflict in the Middle East. In April, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index experienced a sharp decline, falling by 16.1 points to a current value of minus 19.2, marking the lowest level recorded in the past year.

The waning optimism among market participants is linked to stagflation risks and destabilized industrial supply chains. The drop in corporate profits across key sectors of the European Union underscores the asymmetric impact of the Middle Eastern crisis. Investors are now closely awaiting the release of additional economic data to assess the depth of a potential recession in critical countries within the region.

In their weekly report, Global Energy Weekly, analysts at BofA Global Research have noted a critical reduction in maritime traffic within the area of the Middle Eastern conflict. According to experts, crude oil transportation volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted from 20 million to less than 2 million barrels per day. This situation threatens the global economy with a structural crisis comparable to the significant upheavals of the 1970s.

The restrictions on supplies from the Persian Gulf have led to a systemic break in established logistics chains. The prolonged blockage of this waterway makes it impossible to physically deliver products to key refining centers. Bank strategists warn that the current state of the market could shift to extreme price volatility once oil supplies in transit are depleted.

In light of the escalation, BofA has revised its baseline forecasts for energy prices. The average price of Brent crude for 2026 is now expected to be $92.50 per barrel, with a global supply deficit potentially reaching 4 million barrels per day in the second quarter. The market is witnessing an increasing divergence between producing countries accumulating reserves and consumers depleting them.

The use of alternative routes through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE provides only partial compensation for the losses incurred. A sustained deficit will require forced reductions in global energy demand. Experts believe that an average consumption reduction of approximately 5% year-on-year is necessary to balance the system. Investor concerns now extend beyond price to the physical availability of crude oil. 

The global supply chain is expected to reach a critical point within the next four weeks, with markets closely monitoring attempts at international intervention to restore safe shipping before buffer stocks are fully depleted. Without timely de-escalation, fuel shortages in the transportation and petrochemical sectors could trigger stagflation, hampering global economic growth.