In the context of global macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, gold is cementing its status as a key strategic asset. According to a new report from BCA Research, the metal’s high liquidity and diversification potential fully compensate investors for the lack of yield even during periods of high interest rates.

The team of analysts led by BCA’s chief strategist Juan Correa notes that the gold market remains exceptionally deep. Its liquidity directly competes with major currency pairs, making the metal “cheap to trade” and an effective tool for rapid portfolio rebalancing during periods of market stress.

When examining optimal investment instruments, the analysts warn against an overreliance on gold‑mining stocks. Miners’ shares provide operational leverage to the metal’s price but introduce specific corporate risks to a portfolio. For “pure” hedging, BCA recommends using physically backed bullion ETFs or direct spot positions — these deliver excess returns without exposure to the volatility of the mining sector’s balance sheets.

The strategic value of gold is reinforced by its unique volatility profile. Unlike traditional assets, whose mutual correlations typically spike toward 1.0 during crises, gold has historically maintained low or even negative correlation with stocks and bonds. That makes it a “reliable diversifier” capable of effectively mitigating overall portfolio drawdowns.

BCA’s analysts conclude that fiscal expansion and crises in the Middle East have decisively shifted the market’s focus: institutional investors are no longer debating “whether to hold gold” but are addressing the practical questions of how to integrate it. The precious metal is no longer viewed as a merely defensive bet and has become a fundamental component of a growth strategy, providing uncorrelated returns when traditional hedging instruments fail.

Global energy markets are facing a new wave of supply disruptions, yet the fiscal safety net that protected consumers during the crises of 2022-2023 has nearly been depleted.

According to a new analytical report from Morgan Stanley, governments have historically utilized fiscal policy to cushion the impact of oil price volatility. However, the current combination of high government debt relative to GDP and rising borrowing costs has critically narrowed the scope for new large-scale interventions.

Authorities are faced with a tough political choice: pass the burden of rising energy prices onto households or absorb the blow on government budgets. The investment bank estimates that in 2023, direct and indirect energy subsidies accounted for 1.5-2.0% of global GDP, primarily driven by aggressive price controls in the eurozone. Today, the available "fiscal space" has become significantly narrower.

Morgan Stanley economists note that the opportunities for new fiscal expansion are severely limited. Governments are expected to rely solely on internal adjustments within existing budgets, redistributing current expenditure items or implementing targeted tax compensations. The introduction of new support packages through increased deficits is highly unlikely. In developed markets, where free pricing predominates, the withdrawal of government interventions will lead to a quicker rise in consumer inflation compared to developing countries.

The report highlights significant regional discrepancies in response to price pressures. Asia is currently leading the way in mitigating the effects of the energy shock. While global oil prices in national currencies have surged by 53% over the past month, domestic fuel prices in the Asian region have added only 16%. Local fiscal measures have absorbed between 30% to 50% of the initial price shock.

In contrast, Europe has entered a phase of stringent "fiscal restraint." The reimposition of strict EU budgetary rules and the rising cost of sovereign borrowing mean that large-scale responses comparable to the subsidies of 2022 will only materialize in the event of a severe recession scenario.

For energy-importing developing countries, expensive oil creates a classic "double deficit" problem, deteriorating both the current account balance and the budget balance simultaneously. Analysts warn that while these markets may be able to smooth price volatility in the short term, strict fiscal constraints will inevitably force them to roll back programs that support domestic prices.

On April 9, 2026, European Commission representative Anna-Kaisa Itkonen stated that a swift resolution to the ongoing fuel crisis is an illusion. According to TASS, the agency is urging preparation for an extended period of high volatility in energy markets. The primary factor contributing to this instability remains the EU's reliance on supplies through critical maritime routes in the Middle East, the security of which is under threat.

Statistics from the European Commission indicate that approximately 40% of the region's imported aviation fuel comes through the Strait of Hormuz. The navigational crisis in this area poses a direct threat to the stable operation of the transportation sector in member countries. Moreover, the operational diversification of logistics requires significant time investments and a fundamental overhaul of existing foreign trade relationships.

Dependence on the Strait persists in other categories of hydrocarbons as well. Liquefied natural gas accounts for 8.5% of supplies along this route, while another 7% of imported oil also relies on the safe passage of vessels through the Persian Gulf. The current geopolitical landscape and limited options for alternative routes hinder a rapid decrease in fuel prices in the European market.

The European Commission also confirmed difficulties in establishing specific timelines for a complete abandonment of Russian resources. This includes halting purchases not only of oil and gas but also of nuclear fuel for power plants. As a result, the publication of a plan to ban imports of Russian oil has been officially delayed. The discussion on this matter, initially scheduled for April 15, has been postponed indefinitely by the union's leadership.

According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, the US economy is likely already in a recession. His conclusions are based on a new indicator dubbed the "Vicious Cycle Index" (VCI). The expert believes that this tool has provided a clear signal of the onset of a recession in the first quarter of 2026.

The VCI is grounded in the principles of the well-known Sahm Rule, which associates an economic downturn with a sharp increase in unemployment levels. Using this methodology, a recession is identified when the three-month moving average of the indicator rises by half a percentage point. Zandi has adapted this model to account for more profound structural changes in the labor market.

Unlike traditional methods, the VCI tracks a five-year moving average of the labor force participation rate. As of January this year, the indicator surpassed the critical threshold of one, signaling that the economy is entering a contraction phase due to an increase in the number of individuals who have effectively stopped searching for work.

Employment statistics in recent months have shown high volatility and instability. In March, the United States added 178,000 jobs, which technically exceeded analysts' expectations. However, this followed a sharp reduction in February, when the national labor market lost 92,000 positions.

Zandi notes that, excluding the healthcare sector, the US economy has been losing jobs for the past year. Additionally, the effects of recent military actions involving Iran are contributing further pressure to macroeconomic metrics. At present, specialists assess the odds of a deeper economic downturn as being 50-50.

On April 8, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced the start of a "golden age" for the Middle East on the Truth Social social media platform. The president expressed confidence in the potential for a large-scale recovery in Iran following the conclusion of active military hostilities.

The statement came after a two-week ceasefire agreement was reached between Washington and Tehran. The Pakistani government facilitated the negotiations, serving as a mediator to coordinate efforts between the parties in preparation for a long-term peace agreement.

Trump emphasized that the United States intends to assist in clearing the backlog of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to restore global trade routes. His administration plans to increase exports of industrial goods to the region while maintaining a presence to oversee compliance with the ceasefire terms.

Tehran presented a ten-point program, which the White House acknowledged as a reasonable platform for consultations in Islamabad. The agreement includes the resumption of safe shipping along the route that accounts for 20% of global hydrocarbon supplies.

Earlier, on March 21, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message to Iran's leadership, expressing hopes for overcoming current challenges. Stabilizing the situation in the Persian Gulf is viewed as a key factor in reducing volatility in energy markets and easing inflationary pressures.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index, which tracks the performance of the fifty largest companies across twelve eurozone countries, has dropped by more than 7% since the outbreak of the military conflict in Iran. In contrast, the American S&P 500 index has experienced a decline of less than 4% over the same period. According to Bloomberg analysis, the European equity market has proved much more sensitive to geopolitical escalations and rising energy prices.

Increased price volatility is prompting the European Central Bank to reassess its current monetary policy. Analysts highlight an end to the easing cycle and a potential shift towards interest rate hikes as early as April 2026. The energy shock is now directly impacting consumer inflation metrics, which requires prompt action from monetary authorities.

The prospects for the eurozone’s further economic recovery remain uncertain in light of the prolonged military conflict in the Middle East. In April, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index experienced a sharp decline, falling by 16.1 points to a current value of minus 19.2, marking the lowest level recorded in the past year.

The waning optimism among market participants is linked to stagflation risks and destabilized industrial supply chains. The drop in corporate profits across key sectors of the European Union underscores the asymmetric impact of the Middle Eastern crisis. Investors are now closely awaiting the release of additional economic data to assess the depth of a potential recession in critical countries within the region.

In their weekly report, Global Energy Weekly, analysts at BofA Global Research have noted a critical reduction in maritime traffic within the area of the Middle Eastern conflict. According to experts, crude oil transportation volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted from 20 million to less than 2 million barrels per day. This situation threatens the global economy with a structural crisis comparable to the significant upheavals of the 1970s.

The restrictions on supplies from the Persian Gulf have led to a systemic break in established logistics chains. The prolonged blockage of this waterway makes it impossible to physically deliver products to key refining centers. Bank strategists warn that the current state of the market could shift to extreme price volatility once oil supplies in transit are depleted.

In light of the escalation, BofA has revised its baseline forecasts for energy prices. The average price of Brent crude for 2026 is now expected to be $92.50 per barrel, with a global supply deficit potentially reaching 4 million barrels per day in the second quarter. The market is witnessing an increasing divergence between producing countries accumulating reserves and consumers depleting them.

The use of alternative routes through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE provides only partial compensation for the losses incurred. A sustained deficit will require forced reductions in global energy demand. Experts believe that an average consumption reduction of approximately 5% year-on-year is necessary to balance the system. Investor concerns now extend beyond price to the physical availability of crude oil. 

The global supply chain is expected to reach a critical point within the next four weeks, with markets closely monitoring attempts at international intervention to restore safe shipping before buffer stocks are fully depleted. Without timely de-escalation, fuel shortages in the transportation and petrochemical sectors could trigger stagflation, hampering global economic growth.

The United Kingdom is facing a "non-linear" threat to its economic stability as a massive global shock in energy prices poses risks pushing the country into a formal recession, according to a new research note from Deutsche Bank.

Analysts at the investment bank note that while the market focuses on rapidly rising inflation, the corresponding hit to GDP is dangerously overlooked. Currently, the British economy is experiencing its fifth significant supply shock in the last decade, and the likelihood of a sharp economic downturn is increasing.

Growth slowdown and labor market risks

Deutsche Bank has sharply reduced its UK GDP growth forecast to a range of 0.7% to 0.35%, a substantial downgrade from expectations before the onset of the macroeconomic conflict. The report emphasizes that the economy is entering this crisis from an extremely fragile starting position.

The UK labor market has already recorded an increase in the unemployment rate of nearly 1 percentage point over the past year. This inherent weakness, coupled with rising energy costs, is forcing businesses to freeze capital investments and corporate hiring, creating a high risk of a rapid and deepening economic downturn.

To assess the situation, analysts applied an energy shock model based on Hamilton’s principle, which predicts the transformation of price surges into broader economic consequences. The study’s results indicate that the current crisis has a uniquely "stagflationary" nature: high energy prices aggressively compress real disposable incomes while simultaneously creating deep uncertainty for local businesses.

In such conditions, "non-linear shifts"—scenarios in which economic growth declines faster than traditional macroeconomic models predict—are becoming much more likely as the conflict continues.

Inflation vs. recession

Acknowledging that price growth risks remain a serious concern, Deutsche Bank strategists argue that the negative "impact on growth" will soon become the dominant agenda for the Bank of England.

The bank’s model suggests that the sluggish growth recorded at the end of 2025 will worsen amid continuing oil and gas shortages. Investors are already viewing the current environment as a signal of a challenging period for British assets. After all, the economy is facing a powerful triple threat: falling investments, decreasing consumer spending, and rising unemployment.

Chinese semiconductor manufacturers have reported record financial results for 2025, primarily driven by stringent export restrictions imposed by the United States. Cut off from Western technologies, China has been compelled to accelerate its import substitution policy, ensuring guaranteed multi-billion-dollar demand for local producers amid the global AI boom.

Analysts and market participants anticipate further explosive revenue growth this year. Faced with isolation, Chinese tech giants are aggressively buying up domestic components to build their own AI infrastructure, despite their technological lag behind global standards.

According to Paul Triolo, a partner at consulting firm Albright Stonebridge Group, export restrictions imposed by the US against China’s tech sector in recent years have “injected ‘rocket fuel’ into Chinese semiconductor demand,” significantly amplifying growth driven by the development of electric vehicles and AI data centers.

China’s largest contract semiconductor manufacturer, SMIC, reported a 16% increase in revenue for 2025, reaching a record $9.3 billion. Analysts at LSEG estimate that this figure could exceed $11 billion in 2026. The second-largest company, Hua Hong, saw a record revenue of $659.9 million in the fourth quarter and forecasts sales volumes between $650 million and $660 million in the upcoming quarter.

Current dynamics are supported by two key factors. On the one hand, the booming production of electric vehicles in China ensures stable demand for older-generation chips. On the other hand, the need for high-performance components for AI is growing rapidly.

Recent US bans on the export of advanced AI accelerators from Nvidia to China have forced Beijing to leverage administrative resources. Authorities are strongly advising local corporations to transition to domestic alternatives, even if their performance lags behind American competitors.

“While China is not yet a leader in the highest-performance GPUs, these domestic solutions are filling the domestic 'computing gap' and driving record sales,” Parv Sharma, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, explained.

Memory chip manufacturers have gained the most from the current situation, with revenue at ChangXin Memory Technologies showing a dramatic 130% surge year-over-year, exceeding $8 billion.

However, despite historic financial records, the technological gap between China and global leaders remains significant. National giants like SMIC and Hua Hong still lack capabilities for industrial-scale production of advanced chips comparable to Taiwan's TSMC.

The United States, Iran, and regional intermediaries are engaged in closed-door consultations regarding the terms of a 45-day ceasefire, which is intended to be the first step toward a complete cessation of the military conflict. This was reported by Axios, citing four American, Israeli, and Middle Eastern officials familiar with the negotiations.

Representatives from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are actively participating in this round of diplomatic efforts. At the same time, there is direct communication between the US special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

The draft document under discussion proposes establishing a 45-day ceasefire regime (phase one). During this time, negotiators will attempt to define the terms for a permanent peace agreement. If necessary, the ceasefire period may be extended.

According to Axios, the likelihood of signing even an interim agreement in the next 48 hours is considered low. However, intermediaries view the current dialogue as the last viable opportunity to avoid a major regional escalation. If negotiations fail, the conflict could lead to mutual strikes on Iran's civilian infrastructure, as well as energy and water facilities in the Gulf countries.

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump extended the ultimatum requiring Iran to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz until 3:00 AM Moscow time on Tuesday. In an interview with Axios, the US leader confirmed that Washington is engaged in "intensive negotiations" with Tehran but accompanied this with a stern warning.

"There’s a good chance, but if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there," Trump stated.

In preparation for the agreement, intermediaries are developing a scenario for limited confidence-building measures. Tehran is expected to make concessions regarding the unblocking of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and freezing its stocks of highly enriched uranium. In turn, Washington is considering providing Iran with firm guarantees that the ceasefire will not be abruptly terminated by the American side immediately after its conclusion.

Global Brent crude prices surged 5%, reaching $106.16 a barrel, immediately after the highly anticipated address by US President Donald Trump. According to Reuters, the president’s remarks triggered a spike because investors did not receive the expected signals of de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict.

The oil market reacted to Trump’s promise to carry out “more aggressive strikes” on Iranian targets. Traders’ hopes for a quick end to the war and the restoration of stable hydrocarbon supplies were extinguished. The situation is worsened by the lack of any guarantees about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping artery through which a significant share of the world’s oil exports passes.

In his address, Donald Trump stressed the military threat from Tehran. The president warned that Iran is rapidly increasing its stockpiles of conventional ballistic weapons, making an immediate exit from armed confrontation impossible. Financial institutions interpreted this rhetoric as a signal to prepare for a prolonged crisis in the Persian Gulf.

Analysts say that current dynamics reflect deep disappointment among market participants who had hoped for diplomatic progress. Instead, uncertainty over the security of energy routes has only intensified. Traders have begun actively pricing in the risk of further supply cuts, which could push oil prices to new multi‑year highs in the coming weeks.

In late March 2026, analysts at Goldman Sachs presented a report confirming China's exceptional resilience to the current oil crisis. While the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict in Iran may lead to a 0.4% drop in US GDP, the Chinese economy is expected to slow down by only a symbolic 0.2%. The foundation of this stability lies in the timely and extensive transformation of the country's energy balance.

By early 2026, Beijing significantly reduced its dependence on fossil fuels, with crude oil and LNG now accounting for only 28% of primary energy consumption. An impressive 40% of electricity is generated from renewable sources, effectively shielding the industrial sector from price shocks in the hydrocarbon market. This allows China to maintain its manufacturing competitiveness even amid global instability.

In addition, Beijing has built an unprecedented system of strategic reserves. China's oil reserves are sufficient for 110 days of complete autonomous operation. In comparison, the US capabilities in this regard are nearly five times smaller, as American reserves were critically depleted in March 2026 to restrain pump prices. This creates a significant gap in energy security between the two superpowers.

Lastly, China has established a robust logistics system. The country relies on direct pipeline supplies from Russia and northern routes, while imports from Australia and Malaysia bypass dangerous zones. This diversification, combined with structural reforms, positions Chinese assets (A-shares) as a safe haven for investors. While global indices decline due to stagflation threats, the Chinese market is showing steady momentum.

A new ECB analysis from April 2026 reports that foreign exporters have passed 95% of the cost of the new US tariffs onto US businesses and households. A 10 percentage‑point increase in tariffs leads to an immediate rise in output prices of 9.5%, while firms’ ability to absorb those costs through margins is nearly exhausted. At present, consumers directly bear one‑third of all tariff costs, but analysts forecast that this share could rise to 50% or more over the long term. The corporate sector — manufacturers and retailers — will have to shoulder about 40% of the increased costs.

The sharp increase in tariff rates from 3% to 18% triggered an import collapse: every 10 percentage‑point rise in tariffs reduces goods imports by 37%. The auto industry has been hit particularly hard, as the US has actively substituted supplies from China and the EU with inputs from regional partners — Mexico and Canada. While Japan and the EU lose export volumes and revenue, the US economy faces a negative trend in the unit value of imported goods, confirming a significant drop in consumer demand amid higher prices.

According to the WTO, the effective tariff rate amounted to 9.8% versus a nominal rate of 18.2%. This gap reflects importers’ adaptation — quickly finding alternative suppliers or goods with lower tax burdens. Nevertheless, attempts to protect the domestic market have forced American companies to operate under extreme financial strain. Besides, ordinary consumers have become the main payers in the trade confrontation, effectively bearing almost the entire cost of the imposed restrictions. 

On March 31, 2026, US President Donald Trump addressed European allies on his social network, Truth Social, issuing a firm ultimatum regarding energy security. The president emphasized that countries, including the UK, facing a shortage of aviation fuel must either purchase resources directly from the United States or take military action in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, Trump informed his aides of his readiness to phase down active operations against Iran within the next six weeks. Washington believes it has nearly achieved its primary objectives of weakening Tehran’s missile capabilities and naval forces. The US strategy going forward will focus on diplomatic pressure, while the physical safeguarding of trade flows will fall on regional partners.

The White House is officially distancing itself from the role of "global guarantor" of maritime navigation. According to Trump, it is time for European countries and Gulf monarchies to "learn to defend themselves," as the US no longer intends to provide military support to those unwilling to participate in neutralizing the Iranian threat. Responsibility for resuming commercial transit is now entirely placed on an international coalition without direct involvement from the American fleet.

France faced particularly sharp criticism for its ban on flights carrying military cargo for Israel over its territory. The US president reminded everyone of the successful removal of a key figure in the Iranian regime, describing Paris as "very unhelpful." Trump emphasized that Washington will "remember" this refusal when building future economic and defense relations with European leaders.