The US economy is transitioning to a phase of accelerated structural growth, largely fueled by investments in artificial intelligence. According to UBS forecasts, this growth remains narrowly focused and relies on the technology sector, while other industries show signs of stagnation.

According to UBS economist Jonathan Pingle, the economic expansion in 2026 is driven by high demand from affluent households. "Investment is concentrated in tech, and the stock market's boost to upper-income household spending," the expert emphasized. Other market segments appear weak, which poses a risk to the overall growth rate if the AI industry experiences a slowdown.

Additional support will come from fiscal measures under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the anticipated easing of monetary policy. The bank predicts two interest rate cuts in 2026, which would bring the Federal Reserve's target range to 3.00%-3.25% by December. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation remains at 3%, limiting the regulator's room for maneuver.

Uncertainty has increased with the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, whose nomination was sent to the Senate in March 2026. Rising energy prices and new import tariffs are exerting pressure on real household incomes. UBS warns that market volatility and trade disputes remain major obstacles to a long-term optimistic scenario.

The European Commission has demanded that the United States strictly adhere to G7 sanctions regarding Russian energy exports. European Commissioner for Economy Valdis Dombrovskis stated that Washington must stick to the established price cap, despite supply shortages caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil prices reached a four-year high of $119 per barrel due to supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Dombrovskis emphasized the importance of maintaining a price gap and proposed a complete ban on Russian crude oil shipments by sea. The EC believes that easing restrictions undermines support for Kyiv and contradicts the US goal of deterring Iran.

According to CNBC, the current volatility in the energy market is making Russia a beneficiary of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. Rising prices are directly increasing the Russian budget's revenues, offsetting the effects of Western sanctions. Brussels is particularly concerned about Washington's recent decision to grant India a 30-day license to purchase oil from Russia.

The US Treasury had previously explained that temporary exemptions were necessary to stabilize the global market and prevent a worldwide crisis. However, the EC insists on prioritizing sanctions pressure. Dombrovskis described retreating from agreed-upon rules as "counterproductive," noting that additional revenues enable Moscow to increase funding for its military operations.

The G7 countries are planning to release strategic oil reserves into the market to stabilize prices. This decision comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East that drove crude oil prices to $119 per barrel on March 9, 2026.

“We will monitor events closely and are prepared to take all necessary measures, including tapping strategic oil reserves to stabilize the market,” Roland Lescure, France's finance minister, stated. This measure aims to curb volatility following a sharp 25% increase in oil prices. However, according to analysts at the Financial Times, releasing hundreds of millions of barrels will not produce a long-term effect without a cessation of hostilities.

Morgan Stanley representative Martin Ratz described the situation as "the largest supply shock" in the industry's history. The current crisis surpasses the scale of disruptions seen during the Suez crisis of the 1950s. Utilizing reserves at this moment confirms the heightened stress in the global energy market.

As Paul Horsnell, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, noted, "It is very, very difficult to replace flows with stocks." Following statements from US President Donald Trump, Brent oil prices stabilized around $100. Investors interpreted his remarks as a sign of potential de-escalation in the Middle East.

China’s authorities have set an economic growth target for 2026 of 4.5–5.0%, Premier Li Qiang said at the opening of the National People’s Congress. The new target is the lowest in 35 years. In 2025, Beijing’s official goal was “around 5%,” and preliminary data indicate it was achieved.

The downward revision reflects a prolonged property sector crisis and weak domestic demand. External pressure on the world’s second-largest economy is rising amid growing geopolitical risks and threats to free trade. Li Qiang also pointed to structural problems, including an imbalance of excess supply and soft consumption, as well as labor market challenges.

According to a report from China’s Ministry of Finance, the 2026 budget deficit is planned at a record 4% of GDP, equivalent to 5.89 trillion yuan ($854 billion). Higher budget spending is linked to increased social benefits and the need for fiscal stimulus. Defence spending will rise 7% to 1.9 trillion yuan ($280 billion).

China’s long‑term strategy supposes doubling GDP per capita by 2035. To reach that goal, Beijing plans to accelerate the development of advanced technologies and strengthen its dominance in rare-earth supply chains. Goldman Sachs analysts expect China’s actual GDP growth in 2026 to be about 4.8%, supported by export recovery and state support. 

The US Treasury has issued a temporary 30‑day licence permitting India to purchase Russian oil already loaded on tankers at sea, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. The move is intended to help stabilize global energy markets amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

The relief applies only to cargoes that are already on vessels and en route. The Treasury said the measure is short‑term and designed to increase supply while regional tensions persist. The department also said the time limit should prevent Russia from gaining significant financial benefit from these transactions.

The need for additional shipments arose against the backdrop of US and Israeli military operations against Iran. Markets had already reacted to geopolitical risk with soaring prices: on March 5, 2026, Brent crude jumped to $85 per barrel. Goldman Sachs analysts had warned of a potential supply shortfall caused by disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Washington continues to use targeted licences to influence prices without lifting major sanctions. Indian refineries are expected to begin accepting cargoes in the coming weeks. US authorities will review the licence conditions after the 30‑day term expires, depending on market developments. 

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright tried to calm global markets, saying the current spike in oil prices is driven purely by a “fear premium,” not by any actual shortage of resources.

Speaking on CNN, the secretary stressed there is no global shortage of oil or natural gas and that investor panic over the war with Iran is temporary. Wright said the administration expects prices to slide back once shipping in the region gets back on track — a process that should take “weeks, not months.”

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical: over the past day, only tankers directly linked to Tehran have transited the key shipping lane. The blockade has already hit American motorists’ wallets — the national average gasoline price jumped about 16% over the week to $3.45 per gallon. Nevertheless, Wright said he is confident that gasoline will return to below $3 in the near future.

To restore logistics, the Trump administration is discussing a $20 billion ship reinsurance program and the possibility of direct naval escort of tankers by the US Navy. Wright also emphasized that the United States does not plan to strike Iran’s oil-and-gas infrastructure, seeking to avoid an actual global supply shortfall.

The secretary noted that recent attacks on Iranian fuel depots were an Israeli initiative, while US strategy remains focused on purely military operations.

The rollout of AI‑based management systems could be a key driver of operational efficiency in the hotel sector, according to a new Bernstein report. Analysts predict that a shift to “hyper-personalisation” will allow major chains such as Marriott International and IHG to boost margins notably by optimising direct sales and implementing attribute‑based inventory (ABS).

One of the main financial aims of AI transformation is to reduce dependence on online travel agencies (OTAs). With aggregator commissions running 15–30%, deploying proprietary AI agents enables hotels to retain up to 95% of booking revenue. Marriott has already invested more than $1.1 billion in 2026 in cloud infrastructure and an “agent network” that bypasses intermediaries’ interfaces and handles customer requests in their native languages.

Given that labour makes up roughly 45% of a hotel’s operating costs, automating routine tasks — from pillow selection to cleaning coordination — is viewed as a primary lever for lifting EBITDA. Experts estimate that hotels using AI for dynamic pricing and demand forecasting are already recording total revenue gains of about 17% versus competitors relying on traditional models.

Moving to systems that capture detailed attributes for each room (floor, noise level, and amenities) allows hotels to apply extra charges for specific features. Bernstein notes that this “digital shelf” model turns a standard room inventory into a flexible set of high-value assets. Over the long term, this should support steady RevPAR growth (revenue per available room) even amid stagnant travel volumes. 

Recently, China’s government unveiled an ambitious plan to use artificial intelligence to employ a record 12.7 million college graduates in 2026. The scale of the incoming jobseekers — larger than the population of Belgium — prompted Beijing to officially declare AI a key tool for “modernizing” jobs amid mounting demographic pressure.

Labor Minister Wang Xiaoping told a session of the National People’s Congress that the technology strategy is designed to offset “growing uncertainty” in the labor market. To create 12 million new urban jobs, the government will revise internship and training programs in favor of the electric vehicle sector, UAVs (the “low‑altitude economy”), and generative AI. The shift signals a decisive move away from mass production models toward high-tech industries.

Markets reacted cautiously: the CSI 300 closed the week at 3,842.15. Investors worry that state investment in AI may not deliver immediate results because of a deep skill gap among young people. Goldman Sachs analysts note that the near-term challenge of keeping unemployment around 5.5% remains critical while productivity could rise over the long term.

Beijing’s stance sharply contrasts with global fears that automation destroys jobs. Instead, China is betting that AI will be a net creator of vacancies and help stabilize social conditions. A key risk to the strategy is upcoming trade negotiations with the United States, which could restrict China’s access to the technologies needed to implement the program.

Finance ministers from the G7 countries will hold an emergency meeting on March 9 to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. According to the Financial Times, negotiations involving Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), are scheduled for 4:30 p.m. The main goal is to stabilize markets following a sharp spike in prices triggered by the escalation of the military conflict with Iran.

At least three G7 countries, including the United States, have already backed the initiative to utilize the IEA's collective response system. American officials are proposing to release between 300 and 400 million barrels onto the market. This amount accounts for nearly 30% of the total reserves held by the 32 member countries of the agency, which are estimated at 1.2 billion barrels.

The emergency conference call will aim to determine the scale of the intervention needed to mitigate the impact of supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf. The decision to draw from reserves will be a response to increasing risks to the global economy and an effort to cool oil prices that have surged amid ongoing hostilities in the region.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is conducting voluntary interviews with the company that issued SANAE TOKEN on the Solana blockchain on 25 February 2026. The token was created by an organization called NoBorder DAO as part of a “Japan is Back” campaign, using the name and image of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi without her consent. On 2 March, Takaichi said in a post on X that has more than 63 million views: “I have nothing to do with this token, and my office has not received a single yen.”

After Takaichi’s public denial, SANAE TOKEN plunged 58% — from a market cap of $27.7 million at its peak on 25 February to $62,000 by 4 March. Token liquidity fell to $25,000. The token-sale structure raised further questions: 65% of the tokens were reserved for project operators.

The FSA is now poised to open a criminal investigation: preliminary data suggest the token operator did not hold a cryptocurrency exchange licence. Under Japan’s Payment Services Act, issuing and selling crypto assets without FSA registration can carry up to five years’ imprisonment or a fine of up to ¥5 million.

OpenAI is discussing a contract to deploy its AI technologies on NATO’s unclassified networks without access to classified information, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal report, citing sources. Talks began shortly after a deal with the Pentagon, under which the company’s technology would be rolled out within the US Department of Defence’s secure network. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman mentioned the possibility of operating in special NATO networks at a closed-door meeting, but a spokesperson clarified that the discussions concern only unclassified systems.

The Pentagon deal was reached after Trump’s administration terminated cooperation with Anthropic over disagreements: the company refused to provide AI for mass domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons without human oversight. Negotiations broke down, and the US government cancelled $200 million in contracts.

OpenAI has confirmed its systems will not be used for domestic surveillance of US citizens or for intelligence work like that of the NSA. All in all, the company is expanding partnerships with NATO and US defense agencies, imposing ethical limits on military uses of its AI. 

A survey conducted by the European Investment Bank from April to July 2025, encompassing about 13,000 companies, revealed that European businesses are effectively managing the heightened US tariffs, while the fragmentation of regulatory frameworks within the EU presents significant barriers to trade. In July 2025, the United States and the European Union reached a framework agreement, establishing a 15% import tariff on most goods from the bloc, half the initially threatened level but higher than the zero tariff Brussels had anticipated.

The impact of tariffs has largely been absorbed by American importers, and the burden on European exporters remains manageable, according to the report. EU companies have achieved a level of artificial intelligence adoption comparable to their American counterparts, positively impacting productivity. In contrast, US companies have shown greater concern over rising tariffs than their European colleagues.

Sixty-two percent of European companies reported facing barriers when exporting goods to other EU countries due to discrepancies in national legislation among the 27 member states. According to the IMF, these internal barriers are equivalent to a 44% tariff on goods and a 110% tariff on services. Eliminating fragmentation could increase the ratio of companies' investments to assets by 10%, especially concerning intangible assets.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves said on Tuesday that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has lowered its forecast for UK economic growth in 2026 from 1.4% to 1.1%. The revision was carried out in two stages: the November forecast of 1.4% was first adjusted to 1.3% and then to the current level.

The OBR left its growth projections for subsequent years unchanged: 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, and 1.5% in 2029 and 2030. Reeves stressed that average annual growth over the forecast period remained broadly unchanged: the watchdog has simply reallocated the timing of GDP growth, slower in 2026 and faster in 2027–2028.

The announcement was made as part of a biannual fiscal update that Rachel Reeves presented to Parliament. The previous 1.4% forecast was published in November 2025, when the chancellor set out her second annual budget.

US President Donald Trump told German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on March 3 that the terms of ongoing trade agreements could be tightened. Trump reckons that foreign trade partners want to keep the deals, but Washington is going to tweak them somewhat upward. If they all want to stay in the deal, the US could do that pretty easily.

The remark came after the US Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that the tariffs introduced by Trump were unconstitutional. In a 6–3 vote, the judges concluded that the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs. In response, Trump announced the same day a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The next day, he voiced the intention to raise it to 15%.

The European Commission has determined that the new global tariff is being added on top of already valid duties, pushing total levies above 15% for some goods and violating the trade agreement with the EU. Interestingly, Kyle Shostak, director at Navigator Principal Investors, noted that Donald Trump has sufficient legal tools to continue his tariff policy regardless of the Supreme Court’s decisions. 

On March 3, US President Donald Trump instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to "terminate all relations" with Spain following Madrid's refusal to open the Rota and Morón bases for strikes against Iran. "We're going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain," Trump stated during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the White House.

Spain has prohibited the use of its bases, citing a bilateral agreement with the United States that requires operations to comply with international law and have the support of the United Nations. "The bases of Spanish sovereignty will not be used for anything that is not within the agreement with the United States or for anything that does not fit within the charter of the United Nations," Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares stated. After that, the US withdrew 15 aircraft from Spanish facilities.

Bessent confirmed that he would direct the USTR and the Department of Commerce to initiate investigations aimed at imposing sanctions against Spain. Trump referenced a Supreme Court ruling, stating that it "fully affirmed" his right to impose a trade embargo under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), despite the court limiting the application of this law for global tariffs.

The KOSPI index plunged more than 12% on 4 March 2026. It opened the Asian session on 3 March, 2026, at 6,165.15 and closed sharply lower at 5,090.79 on 4 March, 2026. The two-day drop exceeded 18% and marked the sharpest fall in the index’s history, Bloomberg reports.

The slump was triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the following spike in oil prices. South Korea is the world’s eighth‑largest oil consumer and a major buyer of petroleum products transiting the strait. Forced liquidations on margin accelerated the losses: the KOSPI and KOSDAQ trading was halted twice for 20 minutes after circuit breakers were triggered at an 8% plunge.

Over two days, the market wiped out $625 billion of market capitalization, mostly due to collapses in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Motor. “The moves are too extreme, forecasting is almost impossible — analysis doesn’t help,” An Hyeon‑jin, CEO of Billionfold Asset Management, commented on the market situation.  

During a ceremony honoring US service members, President Donald Trump boasted about the White House renovation, pausing to praise the gold curtains. At the event in the main hall, the president said the building would take on a new look after the refurbishment and become “the most beautiful ballroom in the world.”

The leader of state stressed that the drapes installed during his first term “look good” and do not need to be replaced. He said leaving them in place saves money on the doors because “it won’t get any better.” Trump added that he has always preferred the gold color and that the interior changes reflect his vision of comfort and luxury.

Political expert Ivan Bocharov assessed the current situation in the Middle East as more serious than the Twelve‑Day War of 2025. The Middle East specialist envisions two main scenarios entailed by the US‑Iran conflict, which he says is escalating global tensions.

As of February 24, 2026, the South Korean stock market reached a capitalization of $3.76 trillion, ranking ninth in the world. It surpassed the markets of France ($3.69 trillion) and Germany ($3.25 trillion), having increased by $2.23 trillion since the start of 2025.

The benchmark KOSPI index added 44% during this period, showcasing the best performance among global exchanges. This growth was attributed to investor interest in companies specializing in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and robotics. By contrast, the French CAC 40 gained only 4% due to limited attention toward the European tech sector.

According to the World Bank, South Korea ranked 12th in the world in terms of GDP in 2024, trailing behind France, which ranked 7th. During his election campaign, President Lee Jae Myung promised to address the "Korean discount" and raise the KOSPI to 5,000 points. In early February, the South Korean market displaced Germany from the top ten by market capitalization.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has accused the United States and Israel of undermining international energy security amid the escalating conflict with Iran. Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning called for an immediate ceasefire, emphasizing the responsibility of those involved in attacking the country for maintaining stable energy supplies essential for the global economy, as reported by TASS.

The Chinese diplomat urged for secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the prevention of further negative impacts on the world economy. Since Monday, oil and gas prices have been rising sharply. According to local media reports, Iran has threatened to halt the passage of any vessels through the strait, which it considers its territorial waters.

US military officials deny the existence of an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to China's dependence on Iranian supplies. Estimates suggest that Beijing's share of oil supplies through the strait is around 38%, compared to 90% for all Asian countries combined.