Expectations for US economic growth have been slightly revised upward in the latest survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg News. Meanwhile, forecasts for inflation and interest rates for the coming year remain largely unchanged.

According to the median estimate from the survey of 84 economists conducted between December 12 and 17, the US gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 1.9%. 

The growth forecast for the current year has also been adjusted upward, with economists now anticipating a 2% annual increase in GDP compared to the earlier estimate of 1.9%.

In contrast, inflation expectations have been slightly lowered. The forecast for consumer inflation in 2026 stands at 2.8% year-on-year, down from the previous estimate of 2.9%. This reflects growing confidence in the continued easing of price pressures and the Federal Reserve’s movement towards its target inflation rate.

Interest rate forecasts remain steady. Survey participants still expect the Fed’s key rate to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026. This is below the current rate of 3.75%, suggesting a gradual easing of monetary policy over the next two years.

In alternative forecasts, economists and strategists at ING predict 2% US GDP growth in 2025, followed by a slowdown to 1.9% in 2026, before possibly accelerating again to 2.2% in 2027. ING estimates that inflation in the US will remain at 2.8% for both 2025 and 2026.

Germany is on track to establish its largest budget deficit since the country's reunification, raising concerns at the Bundesbank. The regulator warns of the urgent need for measures to maintain financial discipline.

According to forecasts from Germany's central bank, the government budget deficit is expected to reach 4.8% of the economy by 2028, which would be the highest figure since 1995, shortly after the reunification of East and West Germany.

The anticipated widening of the deficit is linked to the government's plans to invest hundreds of billions of euros in infrastructure and defense in the coming years. This policy represents a notable departure from Germany's traditional focus on strict fiscal restraint.

The Bundesbank, serving as the economic advisor to the federal government, has warned that the projected deficit levels will contradict existing constitutional fiscal constraints. In its monthly report, the central bank noted that it remains unclear how the federal government intends to ensure compliance with national fiscal rules by 2028. The Bundesbank estimates that the increase in the deficit will primarily be driven by rising social expenditures, a series of tax reliefs, as well as additional transfer payments.

At the same time, the central bank also highlighted the potential positive economic effects of the planned expenditures. Investments in infrastructure and defense are expected to add about 1.3 percentage points to GDP between 2025 and 2028. Every invested euro is projected to generate approximately 70 cents of economic output.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that in 2026, the dynamics of stock markets will be determined not so much by traditional macroeconomic factors, but by a number of unresolved issues in the areas of technology, global trade, capital expenditures, and consumer behavior.

According to the bank, investors are already grappling with these issues, but their impact is not yet fully reflected in current stock prices.

A key question remains how widely artificial intelligence (AI) will spread beyond its early adopters. Despite hefty investments in AI, the next stage of development depends on its practical implementation, identifying which industries will be able to derive substantial benefits and which ones will only face rising costs.

Among the sectors where AI could significantly change operational methods, Morgan Stanley cites transportation, retail, media, and healthcare. Analysts note that future winners may differ from current market expectations.

A separate discussion concerns the development of data centers and infrastructure for AI. Investors are assessing whether the current surge in capital expenditures will translate into sustainable profits or whether constraints on electricity, price pressures, and uneven demand will limit growth potential.

Analysts emphasize that access to electricity and geographical location may prove to be as important as the technologies themselves in recognizing long-term market leaders.

Morgan Stanley also points to the strengthening multipolarity of global trade, which could lead to structural changes in the extraction of critical minerals and the placement of new manufacturing capacities. In a more fragmented global economy, supply chains, resource extraction, and industrial production are increasingly shaped by political decisions alongside economic factors.

This raises questions about the redistribution of investment flows and which companies will benefit from a more regionalized model of the global economy.

At the corporate level, investors continue to discuss the prospects for mergers and restructurings. With uneven deals and still high financing costs, companies may remain cautious, focusing on efficiency and balance sheet management.

Finally, analysts note the growing impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs on the food industry, retail, and healthcare. The discussion is shifting from the effectiveness of these medications to how deeply they are changing consumer habits and demand structures across various sectors.

Goldman Sachs has released an updated long-term forecast for commodity markets, predicting further growth in precious metal prices while anticipating sustained pressures on the oil sector due to broader economic trends. In its base-case scenario, the bank projects that gold prices will rise by 14% by December 2026, reaching $4,900 per ounce. Analysts attribute this expected increase to persistently high demand from central banks and a cyclical effect driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

In contrast, Goldman Sachs foresees continued downward pressure on the oil market. The bank predicts that Brent crude could decline to $56 per barrel, while WTI could drop to $52 per barrel. Analysts believe these price levels are necessary to restore balance between supply and demand, provided there are no major supply disruptions or additional production cuts from OPEC. The minimum price levels are expected to be reached by mid-2026, with a recovery in Brent prices to $80 per barrel forecasted no earlier than the end of 2028.

Despite the expected price consolidation in 2026, copper remains a key industrial metal in the bank's long-term strategy. Nearly half of the global demand for copper is driven by electrification, while the ability to increase production is limited.

In the European gas market, Goldman Sachs anticipates that prices will fall to €29 per MWh in 2026 and €20 per MWh in 2027. However, the bank cautions about the risks of sharp price fluctuations and potential power outages in the United States, primarily due to the rapid rise in electricity consumption from data centers and artificial intelligence projects, which is outpacing the addition of new generation capacity, including gas.

Silver prices hit record highs in early Asian trading on Monday, spurred by escalating geopolitical tensions that fueled demand for safe-haven assets.

The price of spot silver surged by 0.4% to reach an all-time high of $67.5325 per ounce. Meanwhile, February silver futures rose by 0.4% to settle at $67.860 per ounce. 

Silver has emerged as a leader in the precious metals market, with gold, platinum, and palladium prices following suit due to heightened investor interest in protective investments.

Spot gold increased by 0.2% to $4,348.30 per ounce, while spot platinum climbed by 0.2%, nearing the $2,000 mark. Spot palladium gained 0.7%, reaching $1,729.97 per ounce.

The surge in demand for safe-haven assets can be attributed to reports from last weekend regarding Israel’s plans to inform the United States of a potential new attack on Iran. This comes amid concerns that Tehran is advancing its nuclear program.

Earlier in 2025, Iran and Israel exchanged a series of strikes, culminating in US bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by a ceasefire between Tehran and Jerusalem.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are expected to meet in the US at the end of December. Analysts predict that Netanyahu will advocate for tougher measures against Iran.

Adding to the uncertainty, reports have emerged that the US is preparing to detain a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela amid rising tensions between Washington and Caracas. 

The Trump administration has intensified its scrutiny of Venezuela, accusing the country of using oil revenues to fund drug trafficking and illegal immigration to the US. Last week, Trump ordered the blocking of sanctioned oil tankers heading to and from Venezuela and suggested the possibility of launching a ground campaign against the South American nation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that Europe and the US are experiencing a similar process of losing economic weight in the global system. Europe's share of global GDP has declined from 25% in 1990 to 14% today, while the US has dropped from 22% to 14% over the same period. This reflects a substantial shift in the global economy rather than a regional downturn on one side of the Atlantic.

Von der Leyen identifies the rise of China as the primary reason for this shift. China's share of global GDP has increased from 4% in 1990 to 20% today—a remarkable fivefold increase. This tectonic shift in economic power explains the strategic realignments of the United States, which have clearly indicated a change in interests as China's position strengthens.

According to the European Commission president, the upheavals occur in the global economy not because the US revises its strategies but rather as a consequence of them. This is a symptom of a new geopolitical reality in which economic power is steadily moving eastward. Such an understanding highlights the need for Europe to adapt to this new balance of power and reassess its own economic and political strategies.

Cryptocurrency is gaining traction as a sought-after holiday gift, according to a study by the National Cryptocurrency Association and PayPal. A survey among 2020 Americans revealed that 24% of respondents plan to gift crypto assets to friends and family. This figure rises to 65% among digital asset holders. Half of cryptocurrency owners also express interest in receiving digital assets as gifts.

Crypto investors demonstrate a willingness to use digital assets as a means of payment: 82% are ready to pay with cryptocurrency in stores if it is accepted. Besides, 17% of respondents would prefer to receive cryptocurrency instead of a gift card as they believe in its potential for value appreciation, investment opportunities, ease of storage, speed of transfer, and the novelty of receiving something unusual.

Generation Z (ages 18–28) shows the highest interest in crypto gifts, with 45% of this demographic wanting to receive digital assets. The average gift value in the US is around $90, which is approximately 5,000 rubles in Russia. These figures indicate a growing recognition of cryptocurrencies not only as an investment tool but also as an alternative type of gift among the younger generation. 

Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence warn of a potential collapse in the price of Bitcoin. They predict it could dip to $10,000 by 2026, marking nearly a 90% decline from current levels. Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist, believes this scenario could lead to a contraction in the cryptocurrency market, shrinking it from $3 trillion to $300 billion. He attributes this decline to “post-inflation deflation” and an inevitable crash of highly speculative assets, most of which lack intrinsic value.

McGlone draws a troubling parallel to the stock market of 2007, when equities reached record highs, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the market subsequently plummeted by 50%, triggering the financial crisis of 2008. He cautions that Bitcoin could mirror that scenario, noting that the cryptocurrency has already lost about 25% of its value since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September.

Since reaching a peak of $126,000 in October, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 30%. David Morrison of Trade Nation adds that the market is “running out of steam” and could break through recent lows, potentially falling to $80,000. These forecasts reflect growing concerns over the overvaluation of cryptocurrencies and their vulnerability to shifts in the macroeconomic landscape.

The United States has threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on major European firms if Brussels continues with its tax regulations on American tech giants. The dispute centers on the EU’s policies regarding companies such as Google, Apple, Meta, X, and Amazon.

According to Bloomberg, the US has expressed its willingness to employ all available tools to counter these measures, which may include imposing tariffs and restrictions on foreign services. European companies such as Siemens, Spotify, DHL, and SAP could be at risk as Washington deems the European measures “unjustifiable” and “discriminatory.”

The conflict has intensified after the European Commission imposed a fine of $120 million on the X social media platform. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot characterized this move as “just the beginning” and commended the European Commission for its “tough measures.” This escalation highlights the growing rift between the US and the EU over the regulation of digital platforms and tax policies.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates a significant decrease in inflation during the first six months of 2026. During his appearance on Fox Business, he linked this expected relief to the closure of the US borders and a decline in rental prices. Bessent projected 3.5% GDP growth for 2025 and predicted that 2026 could be a “bountiful” year, provided the government remains operational.

The secretary forecasted tax returns in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion for the first quarter of 2026, which would amount to approximately $1,000 to $2,000 per household. He attributed current pressures to what he referred to as “Biden’s inflation” but remained optimistic about 2026. Bessent also mentioned that a Supreme Court decision on tariffs is expected in early January.

Regarding personnel decisions at the Federal Reserve, Bessent indicated that US President Donald Trump would announce a new head in early January. The official referred to Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as “highly qualified” candidates. He also voiced concerns that the Federal Reserve has become an “unelected institution that lost trust.”

Regarding international matters, the secretary stated that China has adhered to established agreements. At the same time, he emphasized that maintaining a $1 trillion trade surplus would be unsustainable for the country. Bessent also pledged to reduce the budget deficit by several hundred billion dollars in the current year.

China’s economy continues to face pressure from both weak global and domestic demand. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, industrial production grew by only 4.8% year-on-year in November, marking the slowest pace in 15 months and falling short of market expectations. This lag is particularly pronounced in the manufacturing and energy sectors, though mining has shown relatively stronger performance.

The consumer sector is facing an even more pressing challenge. Despite ongoing demand support programs, retail sales increased by just 1.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since late 2022. This weakness stems from financial uncertainty and declining household incomes. The automotive market has weakened further, with sales growth plummeting to 3.4%, a significant drop from October levels, reflecting reduced incentives and consumer caution.

Investment activity is critically low, with fixed asset investment decreasing by 2.6% in the first 11 months of the year. New lending volumes remain modest due to lackluster demand for borrowing and limited impact from government stimulus measures. Although unemployment stands at a historical low of 5.1%, this has not resulted in robust income growth. The economic recovery remains uneven and largely hinges on the effectiveness of additional stimulus measures.

Elon Musk has set a historic milestone by becoming the first individual to surpass a net worth of $600 billion. According to Forbes, the entrepreneur’s wealth has reached an astonishing $677 billion, fueled largely by a recent revaluation of SpaceX during a funding round.

In early December, Musk’s company announced a stock buyback plan, raising its valuation from $400 billion in August to an impressive $800 billion. This surge led to a rise of $168 billion in the entrepreneur’s personal fortune. According to Forbes, Musk is the first person to reach a net worth of $600 billion, noting that no one else in history has ever held a fortune of $500 billion.

The previous record set by Musk was achieved in October when he became the first person to reach a net worth of $500 billion. His rapid wealth increase underscores the skyrocketing value of shares in his companies, Tesla and SpaceX, both of which are currently experiencing significant growth.

The US dollar continues to assert its supremacy in global currency markets, defying predictions of its weakness. Despite a staggering national debt of $38 trillion and international initiatives aimed at reducing reliance on the dollar, it remains irreplaceable, according to a report by Yardeni Research. Although the dollar has fallen by 12% against the euro this year, analysts view this as a correction rather than the start of a sustained decline.

This enduring dominance can be attributed to the structural weaknesses of its rivals. The euro, accounting for only 20% of global reserves, suffers from fragmentation. Twenty countries in the euro area have refused to establish a unified fiscal union, leaving Europe without a viable alternative to US Treasury securities. The Japanese yen hovers precariously close to a recession, further constrained by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s strategy to weaken the currency. The British pound has yet to recover fully from the repercussions of Brexit and the ongoing political turmoil. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan remains only partially convertible, hampered by the lack of independence of the People's Bank of China.

Yardeni describes the situation as a “beauty contest,” in which the winner is not necessarily the most attractive, but rather, the one with the fewest flaws. The US dollar constitutes 60% of central bank reserves and is still the primary currency for international trade and corporate borrowing. Despite inherent risks, including inflation at 3%, a potential downgrade from AAA status, and uncertainties surrounding Trump’s trade policies, carry trades are wrapping up the year in favor of dollar strength. Global efforts towards de-dollarization have seen limited success, as moving away from the greenback would prove too costly and disruptive.

China’s economy continued to lose momentum in the final quarter of 2025, reinforcing the case for more extensive stimulus measures in the upcoming year, analysts at ING said in a report released on Monday.

The commentary follows the release of data showing that growth in industrial production and retail sales in November fell short of expectations. In addition, investments in fixed assets declined more sharply than anticipated for the second consecutive month, an alarming signal that businesses are beginning to tighten their belts.

According to ING, weaker retail sales can largely be attributed to the delayed effects of subsidies and trade-in programs launched by Beijing at the end of 2024. While these measures initially stimulated consumption, their impact quickly faded, requiring an expansion of the programs to sustain demand.

Industrial production remains one of the few bright spots, with steady external demand expected to continue partially offsetting domestic weaknesses. However, analysts warn that the struggling property market and sluggish consumer spending are likely to be significant drags on the economy in 2026.

The ING analysts cautioned that the more complex challenges for China would emerge starting next year and continue into the future. They highlighted that the most pressing concern for the country is the erosion of trust, which poses a risk of becoming a chronic issue.

New data comes on the heels of disappointing inflation statistics released last week, showing that consumer inflation remains subdued and that producer inflation contracted for the 38th consecutive month in November.

According to ING, policymakers have considerable work ahead if domestic demand is to become the key driver of growth in 2026, as planned.

Recent statements from the Politburo and the Central Economic Work Conference reaffirm that stimulating domestic demand remains a priority. However, few concrete measures have been announced, aside from promises to enhance fiscal support.

ING suggests that a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is still achievable. Nevertheless, amid weakening domestic demand, the risk of a downturn is increasing, both in the short and long term.

Standard Chartered has sharply revised its Bitcoin forecasts, cutting its 2025 year-end target from $200,000 to $100,000. The long-term projection of $500,000 has also been postponed by two years, moving from 2028 to 2030. Chief Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick acknowledged that the initial short-term targets were inaccurate, attributing the revision to market dynamics following a 36% drop from October's peak of $126,000 to $80,500 at the end of November.

Kendrick emphasized that such declines are within the normal range compared to previous cycles since the launch of spot ETFs in the United States. The updated forecast anticipates a gradual increase, with projections of $100,000 in 2025, $150,000 in 2026, $225,000 in 2027, $300,000 in 2028, $400,000 in 2029, and $500,000 in 2030.

The analyst explained that the slowdown stems from a shift in demand sources. Initially, growth was fueled by inflows into ETFs and purchases from companies like MicroStrategy, which operate as "digital asset treasuries." Now, this phase is considered complete, which necessitates reevaluating price expectations.

Betting platforms in the US are hesitant to make predictions about the Fed’s interest rates for 2026 under conditions of "stalled progress" towards 2% inflation, uneven but steady economic growth, and initial signs of a softening labor market. This is stated in a new forecast by HSBC, which warns that the coming year may pose a challenge to investor expectations.

After a strong 2025 for Treasury bonds, the bank believes that the Federal Reserve's ability to meet market hopes for sharp rate cuts will be limited by both structural and cyclical factors. HSBC anticipates a yield of 4.30% on 10-year Treasury bonds by the end of 2026—higher than the Bloomberg consensus—and a slight increase to 4.40% by the end of 2027. The bank maintains a neutral position on duration.

HSBC considers several scenarios. If inflation unexpectedly accelerates, yields could test the 5% area, especially if questions arise about the independence of monetary policy. Conversely, a softer economic cycle could provoke a "significant bullish steepening of the yield curve." As a result, the bank views the risk balance as "asymmetric," skewed towards further increases. Experts see positioning in the "belly" of the curve as the most attractive, where structural risks are lower, and yields remain acceptable.

HSBC also notes that potential personnel changes in the rate-setting committee, including the expected departure of Jerome Powell in mid-2026, will add uncertainty to the FOMC’s agenda. Regarding the Federal Reserve's operations, the bank foresees the start of "net asset purchases" in Treasury bills as early as the first quarter of 2026 to alleviate funding pressures as liabilities outside of reserves grow.

On the supply side, HSBC suggests that the sizes of coupon auctions will remain stable in the first half of 2026, but an expansion of issuances is likely to appear on the horizon, most probably in the fourth quarter, considering the increasing budget deficits. The bank also points out that swap spreads do not fully reflect these risks, creating the possibility that long-term Treasury bonds may show weak performance relative to swaps in the coming months.