The US dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2022 amid rising doubts among investors about the sustainability of American economic policy. During Donald Trump’s second presidential term, the Bloomberg Dollar Index has decreased by nearly 12%, reflecting a significant outflow of capital from US assets.

A strategy known as “devaluation trading” is gaining traction in markets, where investors are reducing exposure to the dollar and dollar-linked instruments. The main factor exerting pressure is the unpredictability of White House policy. This includes threats of new tariffs, pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and abrupt foreign policy initiatives that affect relations with US allies.

Despite official statements affirming a commitment to a strong dollar, markets increasingly assume that a weaker currency is effectively viewed by the administration as a permissible tool for supporting exports. The president has previously stated that the current exchange rate level is “excellent,” further fueling these expectations.

Amid this backdrop, capital is being redistributed into alternative assets. Emerging markets have had their best start to the year since 2012, while the volume of hedging against further dollar weakness has reached record levels, indicating a rise in defensive strategies among investors.

“The era of automatic dollar accumulation is over,” PIMCO’s Pramol Dhawan said, characterizing current trends as a structural shift in investment regimes.

The dollar’s slide temporarily paused on Friday following reports of Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the next Fed chair. Despite his recent statements aligning closely with the White House’s position, Warsh is viewed by markets as a more conservative figure who is less inclined to aggressive rate cuts compared to other candidates.

Analysts warn that declining confidence among foreign investors poses a risk to the US debt market. With a federal budget deficit of about $1.8 trillion and total government debt approaching $39 trillion, the United States remains heavily dependent on demand for Treasury bonds. Continued outflows of foreign capital might force the government to raise yields, thereby exerting pressure on economic growth.

The Swiss franc, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset during periods of instability, has reached an 11‑year high against the dollar. As of early 2026, the currency has already appreciated by 3.5%, following a 12.7% surge in 2025. This rally is attributed to unpredictable US trade policy, doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence, and threats of military conflicts that direct capital into traditional safe havens.

However, a stronger franc is causing challenges for the Swiss economy. As Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel acknowledged at the forum in Davos, a rise in the currency complicates the regulator’s operations. Switzerland faces a unique problem: unlike its neighboring countries, which are contending with inflation, Switzerland risks deflation. A strengthening franc lowers import prices and puts pressure on exporters, potentially forcing the central bank to revert to negative interest rates that were lifted in 2022.

Regulators have two intervention tools at their disposal. The first is to return to negative rates, a move that would be economically painful. The second involves currency interventions, although these carry significant political risks. The Trump administration previously imposed tariffs of 39% against Switzerland, accusing the country of currency manipulation. Later, the tariffs were reduced to 15%. Any active currency interventions could provoke renewed pressure from the White House and lead to fresh sanctions, leaving the central bank caught between economic and geopolitical interests.

Analysts are skeptical about the prospects for a weaker franc. Lloyd Harris, head of fixed income at Premier Miton Investors, describes the franc as “the strongest currency on earth” in the long term, supported by the stability of the Swiss economy, gold prices, and its status as a safe haven. This suggests that pressure on the franc will persist, thereby limiting regulators’ options for weakening it.

The global financial system has encountered a new source of risk: the Japanese government bond market, long regarded as a bastion of stability, is rapidly destabilizing. Last week, yields on Japan’s government bonds soared, putting traders around the world on edge. The yield on 40‑year bonds topped the 4% mark for the first time, and 30‑year yields swung by more than a quarter of a percentage point in a single session — a move that used to take months. The market capitalization of Japan’s sovereign yield curve plunged by $41 billion in one day.

The roots of the crisis lie in a mix of structural and political factors. Inflation has surpassed the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the fourth year running, undermining the case for zero interest rates. At the same time, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, preparing for snap elections on February 8, pledges large fiscal spending, inflating an already enormous public debt of 230% of GDP — a level incompatible with long‑term fiscal stability.

Turbulence in Tokyo is producing a ripple effect across global markets. Goldman Sachs estimates that every 10 basis points of higher Japanese yields adds 2–3 bps to rates in the US and other countries. Wild yen moves have sparked market nervousness, including at the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury. So, market participants are braced for currency intervention.

Potential repatriation of Japanese capital poses a grave risk to global markets. Japanese investors hold more than $5 trillion abroad, mainly in foreign government bonds. As domestic yields rise, Japanese debt becomes more attractive: 30‑year JGB yields have already surpassed those of Germany and China. Major players such as Sumitomo Mitsui have announced plans to revise portfolios and shift focus away from foreign bonds back to Japanese ones. A mass capital withdrawal by Japanese investors could crash US and European government bond markets, driving yields higher at a very inopportune point in the economic cycle.

Masayuki Koguchi of Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management described the situation as “a new era” and warned, “This is only the beginning. There is a chance we will see even stronger shocks.” That assessment signals market participants are ready for lingering high volatility rather than imminent stabilization.

US President Donald Trump commented on the dollar’s slump to a four‑year low, saying the American currency “is doing great” and “it’s fine.” He added that he did not advocate for the dollar’s steady fall in the exchange rate, preferring that the dollar “find its own level.” Trump reminded listeners that he has fiercely argued with China and Japan over their currency devaluations, highlighting an inconsistency in the US stance.

The dollar’s weakness is driven by a mix of factors eroding investor confidence in the US economy: expectations of further Fed rate cuts, uncertainty over tariff policy, political instability, including threats to the Fed’s independence, and a rising budget deficit. These systemic issues have created an environment in which investors are betting against the dollar.

Investors are overwhelmed by pessimism: traders have placed record bets on a dollar collapse, signaling deep disappointment with the greenback’s long‑term outlook. Trump’s stance, accepting the protracted weakness while insisting that the dollar is “in great shape”, underscores a contradiction between official rhetoric and the economic reality that traders and investors have already priced into the market.

Tom Lee, head of BitMine, says that the current weakness in Bitcoin and Ethereum is driven by the surge in gold and silver prices, but he insists the decline is temporary. In his view, the crypto market is still feeling the aftereffects of the large October crash, when many exchanges and market makers were forced to cut risk, putting pressure on liquidity and market quotes.

Tom Lee pointed to several positive shifts. First, traditional finance, tokenization, and blockchain are increasingly seen as a single promising direction. Second, cryptocurrencies are rising without heavy use of leverage, which makes moves slower but more sustainable. In addition, a weaker dollar and expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve create a favorable backdrop for both assets.

The current liquidity outflow from crypto is explained by a FOMO effect — investors fear missing out on gains in precious metals. However, Lee is confident the situation will change soon. Historically, pauses in gold and silver rallies have often triggered powerful surges in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Lee previously forecast that if Bitcoin reaches $250,000, Ether could approach $12,000. The analyst expects the crypto market to recover in the first half of 2026, viewing the current weakness as a temporary phase before a new bullish wave.

According to a survey by crypto exchange Coinbase, 75% of large investors consider Bitcoin undervalued under current market conditions. Only 25% called the price fair, and 4% said the leading cryptocurrency is overvalued. More than 60% of respondents have maintained or scaled up their Bitcoin holdings since its all‑time high in October, despite the subsequent correction. 80% of investors plan to either keep their current positions unchanged or add to them, even if the market falls by 10%.

44% of large investors believe the crypto market is either in an accumulation phase or in a protracted bear trend. Such periods have historically preceded crypto rallies. This stance points to strategic optimism about the long‑term outlook for digital assets. Despite ongoing uncertainty about US monetary policy, Coinbase analysts expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates twice in 2026, creating favourable conditions for risky assets.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said that the latest Bitcoin slump has left it significantly undervalued relative to gold, which could soon lead to a trend reversal. The combination of factors, such as investor readiness to buy, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and asset undervaluation, sets the stage for a Bitcoin recovery in 2026.

State-owned Chinese company PetroChina has informed traders of its unwillingness to buy Venezuelan oil, despite the fact that the export of crude from Venezuela is now under US control. According to Reuters, PetroChina’s cautious approach suggests that the company aims to assess evolving market conditions more thoroughly. This implies that other Chinese buyers who previously acquired inexpensive Venezuelan crude will likely act similarly.

PetroChina, part of the CNPC group, was the largest purchaser of Venezuelan oil until 2019, when President Trump imposed sanctions. The current refusal by the Chinese company comes amid a reassessment of the price of Venezuelan crude. Trading houses Trafigura and Vitol have started selling oil at significantly higher prices. Compared to $15 in December, discounts to Brent crude have narrowed to just $5 per barrel. Experts consider the current price to be uncompetitive, as Venezuelan crude is losing ground in terms of price against Canadian and Iranian oil.

Traders believe that shipments of Venezuelan oil to China will plummet in February. The main buyers have been small private refiners for whom price has been a critical factor despite the risks associated with sanctions. As prices rise, demand collapses. In contrast, Russia intends to continue its cooperation. According to Sergey Melik-Bagdasarov, Russia's ambassador to Venezuela, the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro will not affect Russian oil companies' operations with Venezuelan enterprises. Furthermore, no one has suggested canceling agreements on crude production.

US President Donald Trump has vowed a “major retaliation” if European countries begin selling off American assets in response to his tariff threats. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump told Fox Business, “If they do that, well, go ahead. But if it happens, there will be major retaliation from us. And we hold all the cards.” The threat reflects the administration’s readiness for economic confrontation with Europe over issues related to Greenland and trade.

Speculation about a potential sell-off of US assets arose after Danish pension fund AkademikerPension announced plans to divest $100 million in US Treasury bonds. Meanwhile, Greenlandic fund SISA Pension is reviewing its investments in US equities. However, implementing a "Sell America" strategy could prove challenging, as most American assets are held by private funds, which are not subject to government control. Still, large holders like Norway's sovereign fund could potentially influence markets.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the significance of the Danish fund's asset sales, stating in Davos, “Denmark’s investment in US Treasury bonds, like Denmark itself, is irrelevant. They have been selling Treasury bonds for years.” Bessent's position highlights the administration's belief that Europeans are incapable of causing significant harm to US financial markets through asset divestment.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian exports to the United States if Canada signs a trade deal with China. Calling Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said that Canada was “very wrong” to allow China to increase imports of electric vehicles. The president noted, “If Canada makes a deal with China, a 100‑percent tariff will be immediately imposed on all Canadian goods.” Trump also quipped that he would like Canada to become the 51st US state.

The threat came against the backdrop of a major trade agreement between China and Canada announced last week. Prime Minister Carney visited Beijing for the first time in eight years, met with Xi Jinping, and agreed to scale down trade barriers. Under the deal, Canada will allow the import of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a tariff rate of about 6%, removing a previous 100% levy. China also offered visa‑free entry for Canadians and a planned reduction in tariffs on Canadian canola.

Trump’s stance demonstrates the administration’s readiness to economically isolate Canada if it moves out of America’s trade orbit. Such threats reflect the US desire to maintain dominance in the Western Hemisphere and to block the expansion of Chinese influence in North America. 

Sahra Wagenknecht, the leader of Germany’s BSW party, stated that the European Union’s ban on Russian gas supplies has sealed the EU’s own economic downturn. She argued that Brussels’ decision to impose a full ban on Russian gas signals a complete dependence on US fracking gas. Wagenknecht criticized the EU for its hypocrisy, saying the bloc “complains” about Trump’s imperialism while becoming wholly reliant on American energy supplies. “Whoever makes a worm of themselves shouldn't complain about being stepped on,” the official remarked.

The EU Council has finalized its decision to prohibit the import of liquefied natural gas from Russia, starting January 1, 2027, along with piped gas, effective September 30, 2027. Penalties for violating these bans include a minimum fine of €2.6 million for individuals and at least €40 million for companies. The decision reflects the EU’s determination to end its reliance on Russian energy amid the conflict in Ukraine.

Wagenknecht’s stance expresses skepticism regarding the EU’s energy security strategy. Her criticism highlights a real dilemma: by opting for American gas over Russian supplies, Europe remains reliant on external sources and risks losing its bargaining power. The ban on Russian gas exacerbates geopolitical tensions and could lead to higher energy prices for European consumers.

US President Donald Trump has confirmed the takeover of TikTok’s American division by a consortium of investors led by Oracle and Silver Lake. In a post on Truth Social, Trump thanked Vice President J.D. Vance and other administration officials for their help in arranging the purchase of the asset from its Chinese owners. Notably, the president also expressed gratitude to China’s President Xi Jinping, saying, “He could have taken a different path, but he did not, and we appreciate his decision.”

The deal, first reported in December 2025, provides that the investors will acquire 45% of TikTok’s US subsidiary. The joint venture will be responsible for data protection, algorithm security, content moderation, and software quality. Trump previously told young voters, “I saved TikTok, so you now owe me big,” pointing to the app’s role in his support among younger voters in the presidential campaign.

The story dates back to April 2024, when then‑President Joe Biden ordered Chinese company ByteDance to sell TikTok or cease the social network’s operations in the United States. After returning to the White House, Trump postponed a block, creating room for negotiations. The buyout reflects Washington’s effort to bring a Chinese digital asset under US control while preserving its functionality. 

Despite ongoing risks to economic growth in the eurozone, the escalating tension between the United States and Europe over Greenland is creating a favorable backdrop for the euro against the dollar.

The immediate threat of a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries by the United States has receded following its withdrawal amid signals of a potential deal. However, the episode reminded markets that trade and political uncertainty is back on the table, leaving investors on alert.

According to Bank of America, the EUR/USD pair is currently influenced by two opposing forces. On the one hand, the bilateral escalation threatens Europe's economic growth, which typically weighs on the euro. On the other hand, Europe’s role as a key source of financing for the US current account deficit means that rising tensions may impact the dollar more adversely.

Recent market dynamics suggest that the second factor is currently prevailing. During the latest wave of anxiety, US stocks fell, yields increased, volatility spiked, and contrary to classical logic, EUR/USD moved upward.

BofA notes that the market's reaction was more subdued than in April 2025. This reflects both a reduced surprise effect and expectations of possible de‑escalation. Nonetheless, the overall trend remained unchanged, with the euro strengthening.

Historically, the single currency tends to rise after sudden tariff escalations involving the EU. According to the bank's estimates, the average additional growth compared to the trend was around 1% per week following such events. Analysts also point out that there has been a shift in market logic. Higher real yields in the US no longer guarantee a stronger dollar against the euro.

The economic impact of a possible return to tariffs is likely to be limited unless measures affect the entire EU. The eight targeted countries account for about 11% of US imports, and their participation in the single market allows for the redirection of trade flows. The more significant costs may arise from prolonged uncertainty, which could dampen investment activity in Europe.

Medium‑term factors also favor the euro. Bank of America emphasizes that growing political support for fiscal spending in Europe is bolstering demand for the euro, especially against the backdrop of substantial US investments in artificial intelligence. A coordinated EU response, particularly with a focus on services rather than goods, could further support the European currency if the escalation remains manageable.

The competition in artificial intelligence between the US and China is increasingly being framed as a national security issue.

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on certain AI chips, including Nvidia’s H200 processor and a competing model from Advanced Micro Devices. The decision followed a nine‑month investigation into the semiconductor sector.

The measure is being viewed as part of a broader strategy to encourage US manufacturers to produce more chips domestically and to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, chiefly those in Taiwan.

White House officials later clarified that the tariffs will be targeted. They will not affect chips and equipment imported for use in US data centers, many of which are equipped with high-performance processors for running AI models. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was also granted broad authority to issue additional exemptions.

The step followed Trump’s earlier pledge to impose duties on imported Chinese semiconductors, though the related executive order has been postponed until June 2027. The president also said he might allow Nvidia to export H200 chips to China in exchange for a share of sales. This proposal raised questions about a possible conflict with the constitutional prohibition on export taxes.

Despite mixed signals, the overall direction of White House policy makes clear that AI is increasingly viewed not merely as a commercial product but as a strategic asset.

In briefing notes, including commentary from Stephanie Roth, analysts point out that the COVID‑19 pandemic exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains, when chip shortages highlighted the world economy’s reliance on stable access to these components.

“Leadership in AI is critical for technological superiority, military capability, and economic growth,” the note states.

Wolfe Research estimates that the US remains the “clear leader” in training the largest and most powerful AI models. At the same time, China has made notable progress through state‑led, capital‑intensive policies, betting on efficiency, optimization, and rapid deployment of “good‑enough” models despite limited access to cutting‑edge hardware.

In other words, the AI race is looking less like a contest among startups and more like a long strategic game between nations. 

US President Donald Trump has threatened Canada with 100% tariffs on all exports to the United States if it strikes a trade deal with China, sharply escalating tensions between Washington and its northern neighbor.

In a recent series of comments, Trump referred to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as “Governor Carney” and stated that Ottawa is “making a serious mistake” by allowing China to increase supplies of electric vehicles. The US president also joked provocatively, suggesting that he would not mind if Canada were to become the 51st state of the United States.

“If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the US,” Trump wrote.

The statement follows last week’s agreement between Canada and China to significantly reduce trade barriers and restore economic ties. This move has been interpreted as a signal that Ottawa is adjusting its foreign trade policy and diverging from Trump’s trade agenda.

For his part, Carney indicated that he expects China to lower its tariffs on Canadian canola seed following his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The visit marked the first trip by a Canadian leader to Beijing in eight years.

As part of the agreement reached, Canada has agreed to allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into its market at a tariff rate of around 6%, thereby eliminating the previous 100% surcharge. According to Carney, Beijing will also offer Canadian citizens visa-free entry.

Thus, Ottawa’s trade maneuver could force Canada to choose between the Chinese market and US tariffs. Either option promises to be costly.

Silver futures topped $100 an ounce for the first time in history, exchange data from Comex shows. On January 23, 2026, March‑delivery contracts climbed to $100.19 an ounce, setting a record high. By 15:40 GMT, market quotes had pulled back to $99.80.

Alongside silver’s rise, spot gold prices also went higher, approaching the psychologically important level of $5,000 per troy ounce. On January 23, the metal reached $4,967.48.

The silver rally is being fueled by active demand for safe‑haven assets amid geopolitical instability and by expectations of interest‑rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

Since US President Donald Trump began his second term in January 2025, silver has skyrocketed by more than 200%, transforming the metal from the “little brother” of gold into one of the main beneficiaries of global uncertainty. 

On Monday, gold prices surpassed the psychological barrier of $5,000 per ounce for the first time, continuing their rapid ascent amid heightened demand for safe-haven assets caused by escalating geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold prices rose by 1.1%, reaching a new all-time high of $5,035.83 per ounce. US gold futures also added 1.1%, climbing to a record $5,074.71 per ounce.

The rally gained momentum last week when gold prices surged by more than 8%, repeatedly setting new historical highs. Since the beginning of the year, the metal has gained nearly 17%, firmly cementing its status as the primary beneficiary of global uncertainty.

Other precious metals also traded higher. Silver added more than 2%, reaching an all-time high of $106.56 per ounce. Meanwhile, platinum hit a new record of $2,798.46 per ounce.

The price surge is supported by a combination of geopolitical risks, expectations of US monetary policy easing later in 2026, and sustained demand from central banks and investors seeking to shield themselves from market volatility.

A key driver of growth this month has been the escalation of tensions between the United States and its NATO allies over Greenland, which has added to global market anxiety.

US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric about Washington’s strategic interests in the Arctic has intensified transatlantic frictions, raising concerns about broader diplomatic and economic repercussions.

Trump’s trade comments directed at Canada are an additional source of worry. Over the weekend, he threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Ottawa continues its trade agreement with China. According to the US president, Canada could be used as a “shipping port” for Chinese goods, and China, in his words, would “eat Canada alive.”

Demand for gold also comes from expectations regarding US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to conclude its meeting on Wednesday, and markets almost unanimously expect interest rates to remain unchanged.

Although a pause in rate changes has largely been priced in, investors will closely scrutinize the Fed’s statement and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell for signals regarding the timing and pace of any potential rate cuts later this year. Lower rates traditionally support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

“Both the data and Chair Powell’s robust defence of central bank independence indicate little prospect of a 28 January Fed rate cut,” analysts at ING noted.

According to the think tank, the market will focus mainly on Trump’s upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair, fresh macroeconomic data, and whether the future candidate can persuade the committee to adopt a more aggressive easing policy.

Global oil prices moved higher on Monday as the US dollar weakened. Brent North Sea crude futures for  March delivery rose by more than 0.5% to $64.49 per barrel, peaking at $64.52. US West Texas Intermediate also climbed by about 0.5% to $59.96 per barrel. The US dollar index fell by 0.62% to 98.44, bolstering demand for commodities and making oil cheaper for buyers who pay in dollars.

The inverse correlation between the greenback and oil prices reflects simple economic logic: when the American currency weakens, dollar-priced goods become cheaper for foreign purchasers, lifting demand. That dynamic is particularly relevant for emerging markets, which are major consumers of energy. The decline of the dollar also signals that investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, previously warned of a geopolitical risk: the start of a full-scale US military operation in Iran, which has been gripped by mass protests amid an economic crisis, would send oil prices sharply higher. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's energy supply flows, would pose a critical near-term risk to the global oil market, he estimated.