It all began with welcome news — China is lifting its 24% tariffs on US imports. It sounds awesome: two economic giants are eventually shaking hands. Here is a tiny remark — these are the same tariffs that China imposed in retaliation for American sanctions. It turns out that China is simply returning its own anger back to its pocket.

Bitcoin cheered this development. The flagship crypto surged by 3%, reclaiming the $100,000 mark and now hovering around $102,000. Interestingly, does the news about tariffs genuinely relate to the true value of Bitcoin, or is it merely a conditioned reflex among retail traders?

Officially, analysts affirm that this news acts as a catalyst for recovery. However, unofficially, it represents another chapter in the saga entitled the War of Words between Superpowers. The meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea yielded results: both sides are making goodwill gestures like wrestlers who are tired of landing mutual punches.

But here is a twist: Chinese soybean traders are dissatisfied. Tariffs have fallen from 37% to 13%, but that is still higher than in Brazil. The contrast is striking: policymakers speak of de-escalation while traders want to profit from every percentage point.

For cryptocurrencies, this situation is almost weird. Bitcoin’s 3% rally happened simply because people believed that trade might become slightly less hostile. This is not an investment in a currency of the future; day traders just speculate on presidential tweets. Tomorrow, Trump could post something provocative — and crypto could plummet by 5%.

The conclusion is clear: global trade resembles a TV series where actors have to adjust their characters to the script written in real time on social media. Bitcoin is like a spectator, responding to every scene without understanding the plot.

The cryptocurrency market began on a promising note, seemingly having found its ideal formula. However, this formula is not based on production, innovation, or utility. Instead, it combines leveraged funds and retail traders, resulting in disaster. The Kobeissi Letter reports that nearly 300,000 traders face liquidation of their positions daily. This staggering number reflects a grim reality: every day, individuals realize their investments have gone to waste. What is labeled as investing resembles more of a gamble, akin to playing Russian roulette, but with blockchain.

The official narrative attributes this phenomenon to traders using leverage to multiply their earnings. Unofficially, however, it resembles a form of financial addiction. One post or headline can trigger a chain reaction, experts note, particularly highlighting the impact of posts about Donald Trump. Consequently, the cryptocurrency market seems to be governed not by economic principles but rather by the tweets of a single individual.

The contrast between the official story and reality is striking. Major investors observe passively as retail traders engage in infighting. This chaos is beneficial for large players. While small traders panic and sell at rock-bottom prices, the larger investors acquire assets at a discount, later reselling them at a significant profit. This is not a market; it is a hunt where retail traders become the prey.

Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter ironically acknowledge that the long-term outlook appears positive. However, this view is only applicable to wealthy investors who can withstand any short-term downturn. For those who have invested their last dollar in cryptocurrency, this is more than a short-term risk—it is the end of the line.

Wintermute adds further complexity: the issue lies not in a lack of liquidity but rather in its redistribution. Money exists, but it flows from smaller players to larger ones. This is not a market correction but rather a financial revolution in which the cryptocurrency proletariat hands its wealth over to oligarchs.

In conclusion, the cryptocurrency market is not an investment in future success. It is a premium version of a casino, where tweets replace roulette, algorithms take the place of dealers, and happiness gives way to 300,000 liquidations each day.

When Donald Trump engaged in presidential pardons, one might have expected the name of Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, to be well-known. However, Trump surprisingly declared, “I don’t know who he is.” This is remarkable, considering his signature was vital to dismiss allegations of money laundering and national security risks that threatened to land Zhao in prison for four months. Trump attributed the situation to a “witch hunt” orchestrated by Joe Biden.

In an attempt to clarify, Norah O’Donnell, a senior correspondent for CBS News, asked how Binance had facilitated the purchase of a $2 billion stablecoin for the Trump family venture, World Liberty Financial. In response, Trump candidly admitted he was unaware of the details, claiming that he was too busy. The US president pointed out that his sons, who do not work in the government, are the ones engaged in cryptocurrency, asserting that there are no conflicts of interest. For him, crypto is simply a “wonderful industry.”

It began like a plotline from a gripping thriller about bankruptcy: the US government decided to embark on the longest pause in its history. Apparently, it forgot how to turn itself back on. Bloomberg has estimated that this break is costing the US economy between $10 and $30 billion each week.

Officially, this is called a government shutdown. Unofficially, it is when the president and Congress are playing poker with taxpayers' money, while decent Americans sit at home wondering whether they will receive social benefits and salaries by Christmas.

The authorities claim that this situation is temporary. In reality, history reminds us that a shutdown has occurred in the US for the seventh year straight, and each time the damage becomes more pronounced. Jonathan Millar at Barclays remarked that previous shutdowns did not lead to catastrophe. Now, the economy is not just fragile; it is trembling with fear of inflation and unemployment. It is like a building that has endured two earthquakes and now awaits a third.

For the average American, this situation is reminiscent of a family budget where husband and wife have failed to agree on expenses and punish each other by cutting off the electricity. Federal employees are losing their salaries. Travellers cannot visit parks because they are closed. Air traffic controllers are absent, causing planes to sit idle like cars in a traffic jam. Companies reliant on government contracts are praying for a miracle.

The statistics are staggering: the Congressional Budget Office predicts that the shutdown could trim growth in the fourth quarter by a full two percentage points. Two percent represents millions of people who will not be paid their salaries they counted on. The most astonishing thing is that the Senate has failed fourteen times to even pass a temporary resolution aimed at breaking the deadlock. Incredible!

The conclusion is simple: the American government is demonstrating to the world that when the state machinery no longer operates properly, the economy will be disabled slowly but surely. No one can stop the process because policymakers are focused on playing political theater. This shutdown is an odious historic achievement, but history is created by those who foot the bills.

The European Union has decided to tighten its grip on financial infrastructure by including stock and cryptocurrency exchanges under its watchful eye. Previously, each central bank had its own "Prohibited" rules. From now on, a single lengthy directive will be issued in Brussels to ensure that no one gets lost.

This initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance European competitiveness against the ever-looming US presence. Essentially, bureaucrats seek to consolidate their power, not only to monitor at the national level but to hold all financial activities within their grasp, denying local regulators the right to their own policies. It is a financial version of Big Brother, armed with Excel sheets and stakeholders.

A minor quest lies ahead: to expand the powers of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) so that it can oversee the largest cross-border organizations, rather than just fragmented national markets. In other words, bureaucracy is given the green light to resolve disputes between regulators and exchanges, including those in the cryptocurrency market.

Amidst this espionage-like saga, the Belgian depository Euroclear unexpectedly began unfreezing assets belonging to Russians without authorization from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). A Belgian license is now sufficient for such actions in Europe, creating significant discord in relations with the US. The art of investment diplomacy resembles navigating a turnstile when you have two access cards, but one suddenly becomes redundant.

The EU intends to monitor the pulse of financial markets around the clock to ensure they run smoothly and competitors do not attempt to advance their careers by circumventing European regulations. To sum up, market participants will need to comprehend the idea that market freedom means being freely monitored.

When national debt rises faster than a British office clerk's Christmas bonus, it is no longer economics — it is a comedy written by the Finance Ministry. Over the past 20 years, the UK's public debt has tripled. Irish journalist Che Bowes scorns that it is now growing faster than the inflation on a London espresso. The reasons are obvious: aid to Ukraine, tax hikes, and the eternal British passion for “great responsibility.”

Che Bowes candidly admits that London is spending so much on "foreign policy commitments" that even the monarchy's accountants feel like walking a tightrope. Economists ominously whisper about a "doom loop": the higher the debt, the higher the taxes; in turn, the higher the taxes, the lower economic growth. All in all, the UK economy has been trapped in a vicious circle.  

Inflation is not lagging behind either. In August, consumer prices rose by 3.8%, with utility costs soaring by a staggering 7.4%. This means paying for heating now hurts about as much as listening to reports about the revenues of British pension funds. Food prices jumped by 5.1%. 

Against this backdrop, the authorities are already considering tax hikes because US President Donald Trump's tariffs somewhat soured the “special relationship” stance. The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts that trade wars with Washington will slice GDP by one percent, costing the average middle-class family around £400 a year. To translate from economic jargon, that is one less holiday in Spain and one additional session of "financial yoga" for emotional balance.

So, Great Britain has firmly occupied the top ranks among the nations with extremely heavy debts. The Britons would rather rely on their famous sense of humor. Without it, survival seems impossible.

It seems Washington has finally discovered a national mission. It is not freedom or democracy but rather the good old greenback. The United States appears to be gearing up to “recolonize” nations, this time through bank transfers.

The Trump administration recently consulted with economist Steve Hanke on how to ensure the dollar reaches every country that does not yet have Benjamin Franklin’s portrait in its local banks. Officially, this push is framed as a quest for “global stability.” Unofficially, it is a way to avoid explaining why the printing press ran out of paper once again.

In an effort to counter China, the US has opted to print even more dollars. This approach is akin to battling obesity by opening another fast-food restaurant. A meeting with Hanke is like consulting with a dietitian who suggests enjoying cake, as long as it was not made in China.

On a more relatable level, this scenario mirrors a family dispute over household expenses. China says, “Let’s split the bills. I’ll pay in my currency.” America retorts, “No, we’ll pay with mine, but I’ll manage your funds.” Meanwhile, the world is sitting at the communal table, trying to ignore that both sides are gradually depleting the fridge of its last provisions.

Officials call this “maintaining the global standing of the dollar.” We see it differently—as an attempt to market an outdated product under a new brand. After all, if the dollar is a brand, the US is currently launching a rebranding campaign: “The same taste of debt, now with a hint of geopolitics.”

In its latest analysis of the UK’s autumn budget, ING explored four potential scenarios. However, the primary risk to the markets lies not in the figures but in Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

The bank’s baseline forecast remains quite optimistic, predicting that Reeves will raise taxes while avoiding measures that could reignite inflation. Markets have already begun to price this scenario in. As a result, sterling is weakening, bond yields are declining, and expectations for the Bank of England's interest rates are shifting towards a more dovish stance. ING’s target for the EUR/GBP exchange rate is set at 0.880.

Yet, the spotlight is not on the budget but rather on the human factor. A few days ago, Reeves found herself in a difficult situation when it was revealed she lacked the necessary license to rent out her own home. The opposition quickly demanded her resignation.

The issue was swiftly resolved. Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly supported Reeves, and the real estate agency admitted its mistake. On the surface, the incident seemed to be over. However, the market remained unsettled.

In July, when Reeves was previously on the brink of resigning, bond yields surged and the British pound fell significantly. Investors are acutely aware that a change in chancellors often leads to market turbulence. A new minister might reconsider fiscal policies, increase borrowing, or simply introduce unpredictability into the market, especially at a time when government debt issuance remains high.

ING notes that while Reeves' resignation is unlikely, its consequences would be immediate, leading to rising yields, a falling pound, and a spike in volatility. 

In a country where political scandals occur more frequently than updates to economic forecasts, even a minor licensing mistake can destabilize the bond market.

India has finally decided to stop storing its gold abroad and has begun a large-scale repatriation of its metal reserves. Currently, the Reserve Bank of India keeps over 65% of its gold reserves within the country, almost double the amount from four years ago. In the current financial year, which began in April, the RBI has already repatriated around 64 tons of gold, marking what might be called a “gold marathon.”

In light of Western nations freezing Russia's reserves following the onset of conflict, India has opted to keep its gold at home in Mumbai and Nagpur instead of leaving it in foreign hands. As Gaurav Kapoor, chief economist at IndusInd Bank, stated, if there is a suitable place for storage, it makes sense to keep the gold close.

India's total gold reserves now stand at a record 880 tons, with 576 tons stored domestically. Meanwhile, the country’s total foreign exchange reserves have reached an impressive $702.3 billion, ample enough to cover over 11 months of imports.

Bitcoin has finally decided that it is the right time to interrupt a seven-year rally without losses. So, it dipped by nearly 5% in October for the first time since 2018. Market sentiment has turned sour, and investors are becoming more risk-averse, as if someone turned off the music at the crypto party.

As expert Adam McCarthy pointed out, Bitcoin had been rallying alongside gold and stocks to historic highs, but when uncertainty struck, there was no massive Bitcoin buying. Investors found crypto too volatile and too risky during such economic and political turbulence.  

The largest liquidation of crypto positions in history occurred right after Donald Trump eventually slapped a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and imposed restrictions on the export of critical software. The market reacted, but not in the way many hoped.

In mid-October, Bitcoin slumped to $104,782.88, immediately after having hit a record of $126,000 just a few days earlier. Amid such wild volatility, it is no wonder that traders are poised to exit, unwilling to struggle with such epic swings.  

But there is good news: despite the collapse in October, Bitcoin is still expected to finish the year with a gain of over 16%. All in all, the crypto party is going on. 

According to analysts at Capital Economics, China's long-standing status as the leader among emerging markets is approaching its conclusion. Since 2000, China's economy has grown faster than its competitors, except for a brief dip during the pandemic. However, the think tank predicts that China's economic growth will be below the average for emerging markets in the coming years, despite official data.

The main reasons for this slowdown are fading momentum in the construction and infrastructure sectors and a rising government debt. China's GDP growth is expected to decelerate to nearly 2% by 2030. This will lead to a sharp decline in demand for commodities, which will derail the developing economies like South Africa and Brazil, as well as overshadow the outlook for Persian Gulf nations due to the adverse effects on oil prices.

All in all, China is no longer acknowledged as an undisputed leader among emerging markets. In turn, this change will leave its imprint on the global economy and many commodity-exporting nations.

Initially, the shutdown slows the economy, much like a traffic jam on a highway. GDP is projected to decline by at least one percentage point in the fourth quarter. If the shutdown extends to Thanksgiving Day, the financial toll could increase sharply, reaching $39 billion.

The impact is felt by federal employees, with approximately 650,000 workers now classified as temporarily unemployed due to unpaid leave. This poses the risk of the largest spike in the unemployment rate since the onset of the pandemic.

However, there is a silver lining. Bloomberg forecasts a short-term stimulus for next year that could potentially boost the economy before another surge. In the meantime, each day of the government shutdown adds billions to the economic damage and affects the daily lives of millions of Americans.

After months of trade threats and blockades, it seems that Washington and Beijing have decided to temporarily reduce tensions. The United States and China have reached an agreement to resume the supply of semiconductors from Dutch company Nexperia, whose factories are located in China. Details of the deal are expected to be released in the coming days, as the Trump administration prepares a briefing on the new trade agreement with China. Sources suggest this is part of the negotiations recently conducted between Trump and Xi Jinping at the latest summit.

For global markets, this signals a rare moment of de-escalation: a ban on Nexperia's product exports this month nearly brought automotive production in Europe to a standstill. Previously, China had blocked shipments in response to the Netherlands’ decision to take control of the company, which is owned by Chinese investors. Beijing perceived this move as yet another manifestation of Western pressure, reigniting the trade confrontation.

Now, China's commerce ministry has announced that exports will be permitted “under certain conditions.” The specifics remain undisclosed, but the key takeaway for markets is clear: the ban has been loosened. For automakers, this provides a chance to exhale, even if only temporarily. Volkswagen and BMW have already reduced orders from suppliers, while the largest association of US automakers warned that the industry could come to a halt within weeks. Even the CEO of Ford Motor described the situation as a "problem for the entire industry."

The agreement with Nexperia appears to be a pragmatic gesture, not reconciliation but a ceasefire. With Washington easing tensions in supply chains and Beijing demonstrating flexibility, the world is getting a brief reprieve. As usual in such cases, little faith is placed in a permanent resolution. For now, however, markets are grateful for even a momentary pause.

October has emerged as the second-best month for the US dollar in 2025. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 1.7%, marking three consecutive days of gains. The rise is attributed to uncertainty stemming from a lack of US economic data and Jerome Powell’s remarks suggesting that a further rate cut is “far from” a foregone conclusion.

In the absence of solid data, investors tend to read between the lines. The Federal Reserve chair signaled that the regulator is not prepared to continue easing monetary policy without careful consideration. This was enough to provide a modest boost to the dollar, not necessarily due to optimism but rather against a backdrop of weakness in other currencies.

The euro, the pound, and the yen all underperformed in October. Europe is mired in fiscal debates, the UK is facing electoral turbulence, and Japan continues to defend the yen through intervention. In this environment, the dollar stands out as a pillar of stability, though the circumstances surrounding it remain precarious.

“We expect the dollar rally to continue for a little while longer with no major US data releases and focus remaining on the world outside,” Jayati Bharadwaj, a strategist at TD Securities, said. “There are a lot of fiscal and electoral concerns — starting with France, then Japan, then the UK.”

Ironically, the dollar's 2025 performance has been lackluster. In the first half of the year, the greenback recorded its worst performance since 1973, with Washington's tariff policies triggering a currency shock amounting to $9.6 trillion in daily market volumes. The October increase has only slightly reduced the year-to-date decline, bringing it down to just under 7%.

The extended government shutdown has also contributed to market volatility, now entering its 31st day without new data. Investors are left speculating about the economic situation, prompting them to seek refuge in the US dollar. According to Paresh Upadhyaya from Pioneer Investments, the lack of data complicates understanding the economic direction but enhances demand for safe-haven assets.

As Upadhyaya estimates, the American economy is likely approaching a local bottom in the fourth quarter, with the risk of renewed acceleration in 2026. Thus, it appears that the dollar is simply taking a breather between two cycles, one of decline and one of growth.

At the APEC summit in Gyeongju, Donald Trump took the stage and triumphantly proclaimed that his second term had brought a staggering $18 trillion into the US economy. And that is just the beginning! He estimates that it will reach between $20 and $22 trillion by the end of the year.

This financial boom began last April when Trump imposed tariffs on imports from nearly every country. He confidently declared, “To the many investors coming into the United States and investing massive amounts of money, my policies will never change.” At that time, he projected an influx of $6-7 trillion, but reality proved even more generous, with the total soaring to double that amount.

However, there is a catch: US national debt has surpassed $38 trillion and is projected to reach 143.4% of GDP by 2030. In other words, while Trump is attracting investment, he is simultaneously exporting government bonds to finance global growth. This appears to be an attempt to fill and empty a bucket at the same time.

This influx of capital contributes to a strong dollar but causes US exports to lose their competitive edge. Trump seems to be playing an economic version of Monopoly, where each move generates trillions, but the numbers become increasingly abstract.

The head of the People’s Bank of China says that cryptocurrencies pose a threat to economic stability, much like a poorly forecasted typhoon. This suggests that Chinese regulators will continue to impose strict controls on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets.

This statement follows the Chinese Ministry of State Security uncovering a foreign company that allegedly uses cryptocurrencies as a “cover” for collecting biometric data from citizens by scanning irises and other legally sensitive details. While officials did not disclose the company's name, the description bears resemblance to World, a project by Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI, suggesting that he may be engaging in high-stakes endeavors.

The real focal point, however, is stablecoins, which the PBOC governor described as a “serious threat.” He argues that their creators often disregard customer identification protocols and fail to monitor for money laundering activities. The policymaker is concerned that these coins could make the global financial system more vulnerable and reduce developing countries' currency sovereignty. Meanwhile, neighboring Asian nations like South Korea have already launched their own regulated stablecoins (KRW1), marking a municipal sprint into the realm of cryptocurrency technology.

American Congressman Ro Khanna has decided that cryptocurrency is dubious. Therefore, he proposed that presidents, for instance, Donald Trump, their families, their close relatives, and all members of Congress should be banned from trading cryptocurrencies and stocks. "You cannot mix power and financial games into one frisbee," he explained vividly his initiative.

Khanna has roasted Trump for his association with World Liberty Financial and the recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, a figure with a questionable track record. According to Ro Khanna, the crypto magnate avoided a prison sentence thanks to backing from Binance.

Citing Khanna, Trump’s policy on the crypto industry resembles “glaring corruption”. It looks like a cryptocurrency carnival where some dance on accounts while others cry over losses.

Interestingly, despite all the accusations, Trump’s son insists that his father “runs the country, not a business.” Meanwhile, the debate on cryptocurrency among US legislators is heating up. They are discussing a new bipartisan bill that could either rewrite the rules of the game or bring about new headaches for all involved.

In Washington, a tribute has been paid to Changpeng Zhao, the richest crypto magnate and the founder of Binance, in the form of a foam-block gold-painted monument. The design is fulfilled in the spirit of modern crypto art: short-lived, flashy, and meaningful. The life-sized statue features Zhao with his hand raised, displaying four fingers, representing his four principles of life: learn, follow the rules, focus on the product, and do not wage war against fake news.

The monument, funded by an anonymous group of sponsors for $50,000, is intended either as a gift for Zhao or to be auctioned to support his educational project, Giggle Academy. This adds an ironic twist, given that just recently the crypto king received a pardon from Donald Trump, erasing four months in prison for financial misconduct.

As the monument is polished and prepared for its unveiling at the Capitol, a memecoin under the ticker CZSTATUE is not lagging behind — its market capitalization is already approaching half a million dollars.

Apple has finally reached the peak of hype, becoming the third company in history to achieve a staggering market value exceeding four trillion dollars. Just a few years ago, the company was merely considered a “fruitful startup,” but now it stands as a high-tech behemoth with a capitalization that could buy a couple of entire countries.

When Apple’s stock peaked at $269.87 per share, investors felt like they were on an amusement park roller coaster. There was a slight increase in the market value, followed by a correction down to $3.9 trillion. After all, four trillion is nearly a sacred milestone, albeit tempered by reality.

An unexpected boost came from the iPhone 17, which, experts note, sold 14% better than the iPhone 16 during its first ten days in the US and China. Clearly, fans of the iconic brand are willing to pay, even though Siri has not transformed into a super AI just yet.

However, analysts remind us that Apple is currently lagging a bit in the race for artificial intelligence. Yet, with financial metrics hitting their peaks, such a shortfall can be neglected.