On February 10, the European Parliament endorsed the issuance of a digital euro in both online and offline modes, aligning with the European Central Bank’s approach and increasing the likelihood of solidifying this model ahead of key discussions in the ECON committee. In its statement, the Parliament noted that the digital euro is “essential to strengthening EU monetary sovereignty, reducing fragmentation in retail payments, and supporting the integrity and resilience of the single market.” The Parliament also warned that leaving payment digitization solely to “private and non-European actors” could lead to new forms of exclusion for both users and merchants.

The decision overturns an earlier proposal by Fernando Navarrete from October 2025, who suggested creating only an offline version and allowing online access only in the absence of a private solution. ECB representatives, led by Piero Cipollone, emphasize that the two modes complement each other and bring the digital currency closer to cash. If national governments and the European Parliament agree on the necessary legislation by 2027, the ECB could launch a pilot program, with a full rollout planned for 2029.

This initiative is developing amid growing concerns over Europe’s reliance on American payment systems. In early February, European Payments Initiative CEO Martina Weimert urged for urgent action to reduce dependency on Visa and Mastercard, which control about two-thirds of transactions in the euro area. Thirteen EU countries do not even have national alternatives to international card schemes. The EPI consortium, which includes BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank, has launched the Wero payment service. It has already attracted tens of millions of users and is expected to expand into the online market by 2027.

The banking sector views the digital euro with caution, fearing that a state-backed digital currency could duplicate the functions of private solutions like Wero and undermine incentives for innovation in the payments business. Nonetheless, the ECB considers the project a structural response to geopolitical risks and potential pressure from Washington due to the dominance of American payment operators.

A large share of investors has shifted attention to services for artificial intelligence operators, triggering capital outflows from cryptocurrencies and amplifying turbulence in digital assets. Wintermute analysts say this capital rotation has constrained bullish potential in crypto, and with low spot trading volumes, price swings are likely to be limited. A sustained recovery in the market quotes of popular cryptocurrencies will require renewed demand from retail and institutional investors, which is not yet evident.

The market is also suffering from a high concentration of coins among a small number of large holders, creating a classic “bottleneck” effect. Even modest selling by these holders can trigger sharp moves and increase volatility. Uncertainty in global financial markets reduces the willingness of new investors to enter the crypto market. Under these conditions, demand recovery has slowed, and digital assets remain highly vulnerable to external shocks.

Earlier, Bitwise adviser Jeff Park said that risk management mechanisms at large institutional investors played a central role in the crypto sell-off. The combination of factors — capital outflows into the AI sector, high asset concentration, and institutional risk controls — creates structural obstacles to a short‑term recovery in the crypto market. 

Ratings agency Moody’s forecasts India’s real economic growth at 6.4% for the fiscal year 2026-2027, which begins in April. According to the agency, India is likely to remain the fastest‑growing economy among G20 nations in the upcoming fiscal year. The country’s banking sector is expected to remain stable over the next 12 to 18 months, bolstered by a favorable economic environment, high asset quality, profitability, liquidity, and government support.

Moody’s forecast is notably more conservative than the projections from India’s Ministry of Finance. In its annual economic review presented to Parliament, the ministry anticipates growth rates between 6.8% and 7.2% for fiscal year 2026-2027. Despite external factors of uncertainty in key trading partner countries, disruptions in global trade due to rising tariffs, and capital market volatility, which could impact Indian exports, the ministry expressed confidence in achieving these figures.

The disparity in forecasts between Moody’s and the Indian government reflects their differing assessments of how global risks will impact the Indian economy. However, both projections affirm India’s status as one of the key drivers of global economic growth.

French President Emmanuel Macron said in interviews with several news agencies that Europe is facing a geopolitical and geo-economic emergency. The policymaker warned that if the EU does not step up investment in the economy and remove barriers to rapid development, American technologies and Chinese imports will “push the continent’s states aside.” “If we do nothing, Europe will be swept away in five years,” Süddeutsche Zeitung quoted the French president as saying.

Emmanuel Macron also acknowledged a strategic mistake by Europe: by turning away from Russian energy resources, the euro zone has become dependent on the United States, whose firms supply roughly 60% of the LNG used by European countries. This challenges energy independence and raises costs for European industry, undermining competitiveness.

The critical situation in France confirms Macron’s concerns. In 2025, the number of plant closures exceeded the number of new openings for the first time since 2013 — there were 63 more shutdowns than start-ups. That occurred despite record industrial investment of €125 billion, half of which was allocated to data center projects rather than to real production. 

Austrian National Bank Governor Martin Kocher said European financial institutions should prepare for a possible rise in the euro’s use as a safe‑haven asset amid a gradual weakening of the US dollar. Over the past year, the euro has gained about 14% against the dollar, driven by unpredictable shifts in US trade policy and expectations of robust European investment in defense and infrastructure. The dollar still dominates with roughly 50% of global currency reserves, while the euro’s share is about 20%.

Kocher told Reuters that policymakers must be ready for that scenario, although deliberately promoting the euro’s international status is not the regulator’s aim. The ECB is already discussing tools to stabilize the global financial system, including international repo operations and swap lines. This would help manage potential capital inflows and volatility if demand for the euro as a safe asset rises.

The Austrian central bank chief said there are no stability problems with the ECB’s current monetary policy. The regulator would only begin debating policy adjustments in case of significant changes in the global economy. The ECB has maintained key interest rates unchanged since June 2025 as inflation in the eurozone is close to the 2% target. Most analysts anticipate that the ECB will put its policy rate on hold throughout 2026.  

Президент Франции Эммануэль Макрон заявил об окончании эпохи дешевой российской энергии для Европы на саммите европейской промышленности. «Дешёвая российская энергетика закончилась в 2022 году. И обратного пути нет. И это первый момент, который следует принять во внимание», — подчеркнул глава государства. Его заявление отражает необратимость структурных изменений в европейской энергетике после отказа от российских поставок.

Макрон также отметил крах второго столпа европейской экономической модели — экспорта в Китай. Европа ожидала, что КНР останется основным рынком, однако 2025 год стал первым, когда Германия заменила Китай в качестве главного экспортного рынка для еврозоны, а с самим Китаем зафиксирован торговый дефицит. Дополнительным ударом стала политика США, вводящих пошлины против европейских стран и использующих механизм принуждения.

Ранее председатель Еврокомиссии Урсула фон дер Ляйен назвала причиной дороговизны энергии в Европе сохраняющуюся зависимость от ископаемого топлива. Заявления Макрона и фон дер Ляйен указывают на фундаментальный кризис европейской экономической модели, построенной на дешёвой российской энергии и экспорте в Китай, — оба фактора больше не действуют.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Friday that President Donald Trump remains committed to a strong dollar policy, despite the currency’s drop to a four‑year low at the end of January. His comments came after Trump described the dollar’s weakness as “excellent,” which sparked mixed interpretations of the administration’s stance on currency policy.

Bessent explained the administration’s approach to the strength of the dollar through the lens of US investment attractiveness. “The strong dollar policy is, are we doing the things to create a strong backdrop for the dollar?” the Treasury secretary clarified. He emphasized that fiscal, trade, and energy policies, along with deregulation and the restoration of sovereignty over critical mineral resources, are aimed at making the United States the best place for capital in the world.

According to Bessent, no one has handled this task better than President Trump. According to the official, the administration’s economic policies focus on enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, which will ultimately support the currency’s strength. This statement aims to reassure investors amid growing concerns regarding conflicting signals emanating from the White House regarding the dollar’s trajectory.

According to an analysis by ING Economics, the free trade agreement between India and the European Union could mark a turning point in New Delhi’s trade strategy. This move would grant India nearly full access to one of the world’s largest markets amid a reshaping of global supply chains.

ING estimates that the agreement provides India with preferential access to 97% of EU tariff lines, which covers approximately 99.5% of bilateral trade turnover. A significant portion of the tariffs is set to be eliminated immediately.

The scale and depth of the deal have prompted some analysts to call it the “mother of all deals,” pointing to its potential to enhance India’s export competitiveness. The pact comes at a time when Asian economies are intensifying their efforts to diversify exports away from the United States. This shift has already fueled regional trade growth over the past year.

The EU is already India’s second-largest export market, accounting for around 17% of total exports, behind the US with a 21% share. Since the onset of the pandemic, the EU’s share has increased by roughly 3 percentage points. The structure of Indian exports to the EU and the US is largely similar, although petroleum products play a more prominent role in shipments to Europe.

ING points out that while US tariffs remain high, the agreement will allow India to redirect its exports toward the EU without significantly altering their structure. More than 60% of Indian exports to the EU are concentrated in a limited number of categories, including petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, electronics, minerals, auto parts, and textiles.

The elimination of tariffs on a wide range of goods is expected to particularly support labor‑intensive sectors such as seafood, leather and footwear, apparel, handicrafts, precious stones and jewelry, plastics, as well as toys. These sectors, which make up about 2% of India’s GDP in export terms, have been disproportionately affected by US trade restrictions.

According to ING, it is within these segments that India competes directly with China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, and easing barriers from the EU could contribute to job growth in major employment-generating sectors.

The agreement maintains restrictions in politically sensitive areas. India has protected its agricultural and dairy sectors by agreeing to more limited tariff reductions in categories such as food, beverages, and automobiles. In ING’s view, this balance allows for increased market access without compromising domestic interests.

The pact may also influence investment flows. The EU accounts for approximately 15% of foreign direct investment in India, with the largest investors being the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, and France. Historically, EU investments have been concentrated in the services sector, including IT and software, but deeper integration could revive capital inflows into industries such as automotive, chemicals, and construction.

The services sector also plays a critical role in the agreement. India already exports services to the EU worth about 1% of its GDP, maintaining a surplus of around 0.2%. The agreement encompasses broader and deeper commitments across 144 service sub‑sectors, from IT and professional services to education and business services, creating a more predictable environment for Indian providers.

According to ING, the agreement represents a significant milestone in India’s trade diversification strategy and the evolving export landscape of Asia.

Concerns about an imminent collapse of the US dollar appear premature, despite persistent long‑term pressure on the US currency, Bank of America says in a research note.

In recent weeks, the greenback has been trading with high volatility. At times, it even plunged to multi‑year lows, fueling talk of a “sell America” strategy and a structural weakening of the currency. However, BofA’s assessment of market data does not yet support a scenario of a mass flight from US assets.

BofA retains a bearish long‑term view on the US dollar, expecting gradual weakening in 2026–2027. Nevertheless, analysts stress that it is likely to be a slow process rather than a sharp liquidation.

Positioning and capital flow data do not point to a coordinated exit from US assets. The dollar risk premium has risen only modestly, and options markets do not show a sharp increase in short positions compared with three months ago.

Cross‑market flows confirm the picture. Inflows into US stocks and bonds do not indicate a large‑scale foreign sell‑off. Since the start of the year, there has been only one day when the dollar and the US stock market were simultaneously under heavy pressure. BofA says this pattern is inconsistent with a widespread currency collapse.

Instead of mass selling, the bank points to active currency hedging by global investors as the more likely reaction. European asset managers, for example, may increase hedging of dollar exposures, which could exert gradual downward pressure on the exchange rate without prompting a sudden move.

Macroeconomic indicators also do not signal a grave risk of loss of confidence in the US dollar. Inflation expectations remain stable, and fiscal risks, while widely debated, have not triggered market stress.

BofA notes that part of the expected dollar weakening may reflect gains in other currencies rather than purely economic woes in the US. The bank underscores potential support factors for the euro, including steady economic growth in the euro zone, Germany’s fiscal stimulus, and possible stimulus measures in China. Over time, European assets could receive additional support from higher defense spending and new trade agreements.

Economist Nouriel Roubini sharply criticized the policy of President Donald Trump’s administration toward digital assets. In his words, the official crypto rhetoric is being shaped under the influence of “crypto‑fraudsters”.

In his article, Roubini argues that the active promotion of cryptocurrencies is not a step toward technological modernization of the financial system but a risky experiment conducted without an understanding of the principles of global monetary circulation.

He notes that Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its 2025 peak while gold has logged a stunning rally over the same period. From his viewpoint, that dynamic reflects the consequences of a political agenda oriented toward the interests of the crypto industry.

Roubini singled out the GENIUS bill for criticism, calling it an example of regulatory recklessness. He believes the law creates conditions for a return to a 19th‑century “free banking” model characterized by high instability. Besides, he compared issuing stablecoins outside traditional banking oversight to “a ticking time bomb.”

The most serious threat, Roubini says, is the possibility of interest being paid on stablecoins. Such a mechanism, he argues, could displace traditional banks and undermine the foundations of the US financial system.

Roubini also stated that events over the past year have shown that Bitcoin does not function as a full‑fledged currency or as a hedge against inflation or geopolitical risk.

The analyst believes the future monetary system will be determined by gradual evolution rather than the abrupt transformations in the crypto industry.

Macquarie has revised its price forecasts for gold and silver in 2026, citing extreme market volatility and the impact of recent political and macroeconomic events.

According to bank strategist Peter Taylor, the scenarios that Macquarie had previously warned about have materialized more quickly and in a harsher form than expected. Notably, gold has reached $5,000 per ounce amid concerns regarding the leadership of the US Federal Reserve, while silver has experienced a sharp pullback, confirming its historical tendency toward high volatility.

The bank has raised its forecast for the average gold price in the first quarter of 2026 to $4,590 per ounce from the previously expected $4,300. The estimate for the second quarter has been increased to $4,300 from $4,200. The annual average forecast for 2026 has been revised to $4,323 per ounce, up from the previous $4,225.

The silver forecast has also been significantly adjusted. The target price for the first quarter of 2026 is now set at $75 per ounce, compared to $55 previously, while the average price for the entire year is expected to reach $62 instead of $57.

According to Taylor, January has been exceptionally eventful from a news perspective. Among the key factors he highlighted were threats of criminal prosecution against the Fed chair, the arrest and extradition of Nicolas Maduro, increased attention to Greenland with possible tariff measures against certain NATO countries, and a ramping up of military presence around Iran.

He noted that commodity markets have mostly demonstrated strong dynamics, even though price movements often did not align with fundamental indicators. As the strategist pointed out, this has resulted in one of the strongest monthly performances for the commodity sector in recent times.

Macquarie stated that it will refrain from revising its long-term forecasts for gold and silver for the time being. The bank cited the ongoing disparity between fundamental factors and the level of volatility in the precious metals market.

Euro area annual inflation eased to 1.7% in January 2026, down from 2.0% in December, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. The figure aligned with market expectations and bolstered disinflationary sentiment, causing the euro to strengthen above $1.20. Easing price pressures increases the likelihood of a monetary policy pivot by the European Central Bank.

Services inflation fell to 3.2%, the lowest rate in four months, while energy prices dropped by 4.1% following a 1.9% decline the previous month. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, stood at 2.2%, its lowest since October 2021, surpassing forecasts of 2.3%. Among the bloc’s major economies, slowdowns were recorded in France (0.4%), Spain (2.5%), and Italy (1.0%), although inflation in Germany rose to 2.1%.

An additional disinflationary factor was the drop in producer prices. In December 2025, they decreased by 0.3% month‑on‑month and by 1.7% year‑on‑year, marking the fourth consecutive decline. This confirms the weakening of persistent price pressures in the region, creating an environment conducive to interest rate cuts by the ECB.

Apple shares are moving in the opposite direction to the rest of the technology sector, surpassing $4 trillion in market capitalization and overtaking Alphabet as the world’s second‑most valuable company after Nvidia. Investors view Apple as a safe haven amid fears that AI development will disrupt the business models of many IT giants, especially software firms.

Apple’s success is driven by strong quarterly sales and above‑expectation guidance, while new AI tools from Alphabet and Anthropic have triggered sectorwide sell‑offs. Dan Iia, CIO at Fort Pitt Capital Group, noted, “The theme of AI’s destructive impact does not extend to device manufacturing — that’s a positive signal when the market fears AI will ‘eat’ software.” The fund tracking the software sector is down 2.7% and is headed for a seventh consecutive decline, its longest losing streak in two years. Microsoft is down 14% year‑to‑date amid cloud‑related reports and AI investments.

Apple is winning a dual bet: it avoids the “AI race” with its huge debt and multibillion‑dollar capex demands, yet it still benefits from the trend via devices like the iPhone as access points to AI services. January’s agreement between Google and Apple to support Siri underscores Apple’s strategic positioning. As Dan Iia said, Apple’s decision not to dive headlong into the AI race today looks much more sensible than it was six months ago. 

Elon Musk’s net worth has, for the first time in history, exceeded $800 billion, reaching $852 billion according to Forbes. The record was made possible by SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI, the developer of the Grok chatbot. The merger created the most valuable private company in the world, valued at $542 billion, of which Musk owns 43% — his most valuable asset.

In addition, the entrepreneur holds 12% of Tesla worth $178 billion and stock options in the company valued at $124 billion. SpaceX reported $8 billion in profit in 2025 on revenue of $15–16 billion. The company had previously planned an IPO in the summer of 2026 to raise up to $50 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation.

Surpassing the $800+ billion mark cements Musk’s status as the world’s richest person, far ahead of Forbes’ No. 2, Google cofounder Larry Page, whose wealth is estimated at $281 billion. Six months ago, Musk’s assets were valued at under $500 billion, illustrating rapid growth driven by the synergy of his space and AI projects.

Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), operator of social network Truth Social, streaming platform Truth+ and fintech brand Truth.Fi, will announce the issuance of a new token named after US President Donald Trump. Holders of at least one share of the company will be eligible to receive tokens. Besides, shareholders are also promised regular rewards throughout the year, perks, discounts on Trump Media products, and access to exclusive events.

TMTG clarified that the digital tokens would not represent an ownership stake in the company or any other entity and would not confer rights to profits from management efforts. The company said it would disclose details on issuance, allocation, and transfer of the tokens sometime later. The initiative underscores the growing integration of the Trump brand with the crypto ecosystem, which has already seen the release of the OFFICIAL TRUMP token.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP token, introduced by Trump ahead of the inauguration, exhibited extreme volatility: it launched at $7, spiked to $34.50 on news about his conversation with Putin, then lost 98% of its value. Despite the token’s collapse, Trump reportedly became more than $5 billion richer on the launch day due to gains in related assets, exceeding the value of his entire real‑estate portfolio. 

Apple has set a historic record in the UЫ smartphone market, increasing its share from 65% to 69% in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to Counterpoint Research, the company maintained its leading position, while Samsung moved into second place, with its market share dropping from 18% to 13%. The US smartphone market grew by 1% over the quarter, underscoring sustained demand for the products of the American tech giant.

Analysts attribute this success to strong sales of the iPhone 16e in the midrange segment and the iPhone 17 in the premium market. Apple models became the best‑selling devices at key carriers, including AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon. Counterpoint forecasts that in 2025, Apple will slightly surpass Samsung in global shipments by just one percentage point.

The company is effectively navigating the global memory shortage, unlike budget gadget manufacturers targeting devices priced under $300. Component prices for these lower-cost products are expected to rise by 15% over the next two quarters. At the same time, Apple has raised app prices in Russia and other countries in response to an increase in VAT from 20% to 22%, reflecting its adaptation to local tax changes.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports have triggered a crisis in the US industry, marked by rising costs, competition for raw materials, and layoffs of employees. This conclusion comes from The Wall Street Journal reporter David Uberti, who noted, “The manufacturing boom President Trump promised would usher in a golden age for America is going in reverse.” Since 2023, employment in the manufacturing sector has decreased by 200,000 jobs, leaving fewer Americans working in the sector now than at any time since the pandemic ended.

The journalist cited the example of steel manufacturer Insteel Industries. Due to a shortage of domestic metal, the company has been forced to purchase it from abroad, incurring additional costs from the tariffs imposed by Washington. Company management stated that there are very few products in the lineup that could have benefited from the tariffs. According to the WSJ, the tariffs have only raised manufacturers’ costs rather than enhancing their competitiveness as promised.

Meanwhile, Trump remains confident in the success of his economic policies. Commenting on high levels of public support, he suggested that Americans “like a strong and powerful country” with the best economy in history. However, actual data on job cuts and rising costs contradicts the White House’s official rhetoric.