Of course, Tuesday's growth in the pair was driven by geopolitics, specifically the market's interpretation of recent geopolitical events. However, the PPI report also contributed to the strengthening upward trend.

According to the data released, the overall PPI on a monthly basis remained at 0.5% in March, contrary to forecasts expecting a rise to 1.2%. This figure has stayed at this level for the third consecutive month. Year over year, the overall PPI accelerated to 4.0%, its highest level since spring 2023. However, it also fell into the "red zone," as most analysts had predicted a more substantial increase—to 4.4%.

The core PPI surprised traders the most. Contrary to expectations for a month-on-month increase to 0.4%, this indicator unexpectedly slowed down to 0.1%, reaching its lowest level since November of last year. A downward trend has been recorded here for the second consecutive month. Year-over-year, the core PPI remained at the previous month's level of 3.8%, instead of rising to 4.2% as forecasted.

Again, all components of the report fell into the "red zone"—even the overall PPI, which was expected to demonstrate a more pronounced rise amid the Middle Eastern conflict and the energy crisis.

Alarming signals for the dollar are also hidden in the report's structure. For example, the services segment in the PPI exhibited zero dynamics. This is a critical point, as inflation in the services sector tends to be more resilient and is considered a more fundamental component of price dynamics. A zero result indicates a slowdown in domestic demand, and, consequently, a decreased ability of companies to pass on costs to the end consumer. All of this suggests a gradual weakening of inflationary pressure in the medium term.

Based on market reaction, traders had priced in a more aggressive rate of inflation; however, the actual figures were significantly lower than expectations—for example, the overall PPI month-on-month was more than twice below the forecast level.

The weak dynamics of the core index signal a lack of broad inflationary pressure in the manufacturing sector: price increases remain localized in energy and are not (for now) "translating" into sustained inflation for goods and services.

Nevertheless, it must be acknowledged that Tuesday's PPI report provided only background support for EUR/USD buyers. The primary driver of growth remains geopolitics.

On one hand, Donald Trump took a step toward further escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict on Monday. The United States formally began a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, specifically targeting Iranian ports, as the blockade applies only to ships heading to or from Iran. On the other hand, there have been no reports of any arrests or, importantly, retaliatory actions from Iran over the past 24 hours. Thus, despite the formal blockade of the strait, hostilities have not resumed, and the ceasefire remains in effect.

Additionally, many global media outlets are reporting that Iran and the U.S. are communicating through intermediaries and are ready to resume negotiations in Islamabad later this week, approximately on April 16. Specifically, Fox News, citing a high-ranking Trump administration official, reported "serious signs of nearing an agreement."

Furthermore, support for EUR/USD buyers also came from U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who made a resonant statement on Tuesday that the United States "has achieved its goals in Iran and can begin to scale down military operations." He also suggested resuming the negotiation process, stating that "now the ball is in Tehran's court."

Such fundamental signals strengthen expectations for a gradual de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, there has been an increased interest in risk assets (including the euro) in the market, while demand for the safe-haven dollar has simultaneously decreased. The PPI report published on Tuesday merely complemented the fundamental picture.

The EUR/USD pair maintains potential for further growth. On the daily chart, buyers tested the 1.1800 resistance level (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1) and attempted to consolidate in the 18-figure area. It is advisable to use downward corrective pullbacks as a reason to open long positions, targeting 1.1800 and, in the future, 1.1850.

When Donald Trump initiated military intervention in Iran, he expected the opponent to fall within the shortest time frame and that he would announce another victory. However, in practice, things turned out the opposite. The conflict has now been ongoing for six weeks, and now Trump himself does not know how to end it on favorable terms. The main threat looming over Donald Trump is the congressional elections in November, where Republicans are virtually guaranteed to lose the House of Representatives. The Republican Party can now only compete for the Senate. However, the longer the war in the Middle East continues, the less chance Trump has of maintaining support from at least one chamber of Congress.

I would not be mistaken if I said that the vast majority of Americans are indifferent to the events in Iran. What they do care about are the prices at gas stations and in stores, which have been rising for more than a year under Trump. Initially, the U.S. president decided to collect tribute from all countries through trade tariffs, but it later became clear that the tribute is paid by American consumers, not by the European Union or China. In 2026, Trump aimed to protect the U.S. from Iranian nuclear missiles; as a result, the entire world is now paying one and a half to two times more for gasoline, gas, and oil. And Americans are no exception.

As prices in America rise, it doesn't take much to guess who to hold responsible. The Republican Party has every chance of losing the elections badly. Naturally, this scenario is not what Trump wants, especially since, in the last year, with support from both chambers of Congress, he made decisions independently. Thus, it is Trump who needs to conclude the conflict with Iran as quickly as possible. But he needs to conclude it with a victory.

As I have mentioned, I do not believe that Iran will abandon nuclear weapons or that a peace agreement will be reached between Iran and the U.S. I believe much more that at some point, Trump will announce a complete victory for the U.S. and order the American fleet to return to their permanent bases. At that point, the conflict could be considered shifted into a state of artificial coma. In other words, Trump needs to win the election, and after the election, he can start pressing Iran again, demanding the abandonment of nuclear weapons.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains in an upward trend (bottom picture) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set looks quite complete and can only take on a more complex, elongated form in one case—if a stable ceasefire is established between Iran, the U.S., Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave set may begin from the current positions. A failed attempt to break the 1.1824 mark may lead to a price retreat from the recent highs.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had assumed. Now we see a clear five-wave downward structure with an extension in the third wave on the charts. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not provoke a new collapse of the instrument in the near future, we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound may rise to the levels of 1.3594 and 1.3698, corresponding to 61.8% and 76.1% Fibonacci levels. If a ceasefire is reached, the corrective segment of the trend may turn into an impulsive one. A failed attempt to break through the 1.3594 mark could cause prices to retreat from the reached peaks.

The Basic Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play back, as they often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The war in the Middle East is on pause, and this may be one of the main reasons for the U.S. dollar's sharp decline over the past two weeks. Recall that last week, Iran and the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire, which was violated on the first day, but then the parties managed to clarify what the ceasefire means—no one is shooting or launching missiles at each other. Therefore, there has been relative quiet in the Middle East for several days now. Unfortunately, this may be the calm before a new storm. While the U.S. is not launching an offensive or trying to seize or bomb Kharg Island, and Iran has stopped attacking U.S. allies in the region, all market participants understand that the fire could flare up at any moment with renewed vigor.

The first question that comes to mind is: what will happen in a week when the ceasefire period ends? The second question is: how will Iran react to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? Therefore, I still believe that a deal between Tehran and Washington is fundamentally impossible, and the conflict will continue in one form or another.

Interestingly, Tehran and Washington are generally expressing restrained optimism about negotiations. For example, Donald Trump stated on Monday that he received a call from Iran with a plea to reach a deal. The U.S. president did not deny that the sticking point remains Iran's nuclear program. According to Trump, America has made concessions to Iran on many issues, but Iran is still refusing to compromise on nuclear energy. Nevertheless, Trump stated that he believes the deal will succeed.

His deputy, JD Vance, also exudes optimism. He reported that progress was made in Islamabad on Saturday, although the parties are still far from reaching an agreement. However, he stated that there is now a basis for a future peaceful deal. Vance noted that the Iranian counterparts have made certain concessions, so it is essential to maintain the movement toward each other. However, the vice president also absolved the U.S. of all responsibility, stating that the next step lies with Iran, hinting that Tehran must show a willingness to make concessions. What is most significant is that oil prices are barely rising. This is very important for the entire world.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains in an upward trend (bottom picture) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set looks quite complete and can only take on a more complex, elongated form in one case—if a stable ceasefire is established between Iran, the U.S., Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave set may begin from the current positions. A failed attempt to break the 1.1824 mark may lead to a price retreat from the recent highs.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had assumed. Now we see a clear five-wave downward structure with an extension in the third wave on the charts. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not provoke a new collapse of the instrument in the near future, we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound may rise to the levels of 1.3594 and 1.3698, corresponding to 61.8% and 76.1% Fibonacci levels. If a ceasefire is reached, the corrective segment of the trend may turn into an impulsive one. A failed attempt to break through the 1.3594 mark could cause prices to retreat from the reached peaks.

The Basic Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play back, as they often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

According to Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities specialist at UBS, prices for commodities such as gold and oil are forecast to continue rising, even after the conflict with Iran concludes. Investors with significant gold holdings should consider expanding their investments in the commodity sector.

In his analytical report released on Monday, Staunovo highlighted the impact of the protracted conflict in the Middle East on the commodities industry.

"Increasing tensions in Iran and the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz have created additional pressure on prices and volatility in commodity markets, especially in oil," he noted. "We continue to see commodity price dynamics driven by fundamental economic factors, as well as a supply-demand imbalance and rising geopolitical risks. Increasing the share of commodities and a focus on active management can help investors hedge against inflationary risks and supply shocks in energy resources."

Staunovo emphasized that before strikes on Iran, Brent crude oil prices hovered around $72 per barrel and on Monday reached $100 per barrel.

"Today's gold price is slightly less than 13% of its historical high recorded in January, while expectations for rising interest rates due to escalating tensions are impacting market sentiment," he added. "Overall, a broad range of commodities has shown an increase of about 17% since the beginning of the year, according to the UBS CMCI Composite Total Return Index in U.S. dollars."

Although uncertainty regarding geopolitical risks is expected to diminish, the fundamental factors supporting commodity price growth remain positive.

"Stockpiles of petroleum products in various countries are declining, which may necessitate price increases to balance demand until inventories are restored," he noted. "In the medium term, we still expect significant increases in gold prices, provided that geopolitical uncertainty remains high and expectations for rising interest rates decline."

Staunovo also added that UBS forecasts a further supply deficit for copper and aluminum, which will, in turn, support high prices for these metals in the medium term, despite structural factors such as electrification driving long-term demand for them.

"Returns from commodities can be high when demand-supply imbalances or macroeconomic risks, such as inflation and geopolitical events, have a significant impact," he noted. "For investors who prefer gold, we recommend a moderate investment, which will enhance diversification and protect against systemic threats." Staunovo also emphasized that for investors with large holdings and significant unrealized gold assets, expanding their portfolios into copper, aluminum, and agricultural products could help diversify future profit sources.

On March 16, UBS predicted that a reassessment of risk parameters, monetary policy, inflation, and the resilience of underlying demand would drive gold prices to $6,200 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Analysts noted that at the outset of the conflict in Iran, gold failed to surpass $5,200 per ounce, as its perceived role as a safe-haven asset did not materialize. "Unlike the 65% price increase in the previous year, when increased geopolitical risks supported gold, current data reflects historical behavior in similar situations, where investors seek liquidity and resources in alternative assets such as energy goods." Thus, gold saw a 15% jump after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, but then experienced a 15-18% price drop after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.

On Tuesday, silver (XAG/USD) is showing moderate gains, supported by the U.S. dollar's weakness amid renewed optimism about possible negotiations between Washington and Tehran. At the time of publication, the XAG/USD pair reached the 50-day SMA, surpassing the 100-day SMA, indicating a restrained increase without a pronounced upward momentum, as price dynamics remain confined by the 50-day SMA.

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, stated that "the right people" from Iran had reached out, emphasizing their interest in reaching an agreement. These comments came shortly after the U.S. announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports—a step taken following inconclusive negotiations over the weekend. Despite the lack of a breakthrough, diplomatic activities continue: according to media reports, the second phase of talks may take place in Islamabad before the current two-week ceasefire ends. According to Axios, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt have taken on mediating roles, seeking to bring the parties back to the negotiating table.

However, the level of uncertainty remains significant due to ongoing contradictions, mainly regarding Iran's nuclear program, which limits the prospects for a swift resolution. Nevertheless, the mere fact of renewed diplomatic initiatives has strengthened risk appetite, weakening the dollar's position. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to six-week lows.

Simultaneously, oil prices are correcting downwards after recent peaks, alleviating inflationary concerns and partially reducing expectations for a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve. Nonetheless, oil quotes remain relatively high, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to limit supplies and support inflationary risks.

In the near term, market attention will focus on news regarding the U.S.-Iran standoff—specifically, signals of de-escalation and possible resumption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Under current conditions, silver is likely to trade within its current range. A stable breakout to the upside could follow clearer progress in negotiations and further declines in oil prices, which could strengthen expectations of a Fed easing. A rate cut typically benefits non-yielding assets such as silver and gold, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding them.

From a technical standpoint, a breakout above the 50-day SMA would allow bulls to push prices up to the $90.00 level. The next target would be the March high. If the 100-day SMA is not held, prices may find support at the 20-day SMA and could drop below to the $69.15 level. It is also worth noting that oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index moving into positive territory, confirming an increase in bullish market sentiment.

According to the latest data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. for March came in below forecasts. On a monthly basis, the indicator rose by 0.5% compared to an expected increase of 1.2%, with the previous estimate revised from 0.7% to 0.5%. Year over year, the PPI increased by 4.0%, falling short of the forecast of 4.6% and slightly below February's level of 3.4%.

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which has been developing since January of last year, but the wave structure itself now looks highly ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on simpler, smaller wave structures to make a short-term forecast, which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade standard "five-three" patterns.

On the chart above, a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave can be identified. If this interpretation is correct, then this structure has already been completed, and the market is currently forming a corrective sequence of at least three waves. Therefore, in the near term, further upward movement in the instrument can be expected, but within a corrective phase relative to the previous trend segment. So far, recent wave formations do not fit well into the higher-level structure, but the situation should become clearer over time. The euro may continue recovering toward the 1.1824 level.

The EUR/USD pair rose by 30 basis points on Monday (from Friday's close) and gained another 50 on Tuesday. While the increase may seem modest, it has been ongoing for more than a week. It is worth noting that the current news background can hardly be described as positive for risk-sensitive assets and currencies.

This week, Donald Trump announced a unilateral blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which raises the question: who else might join the blockade of this already strained waterway? Other countries could potentially block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—or even the Suez Canal. The idea would be to restrict oil supply altogether.

Negotiations between Iran and the United States are currently on hold, but both sides suggest they may resume soon, with some chance of reaching a comprehensive agreement in the future. Frankly, I am skeptical of such optimism. The key issue remains Iran's nuclear program, which the country has not abandoned over the past 50 years despite sanctions from much of the world. Iran appears willing to endure economic hardship rather than give up its nuclear ambitions. It is prepared to defend its sovereignty and political course for as long as necessary. Therefore, in my view, a deal is unlikely.

However, demand for the dollar is now declining simply because the market is growing tired of it. During the first month of the conflict, investors sought safe-haven assets to quickly move capital out of the Middle East. But the war has now lasted more than a month, and those who wanted to exit have already done so.

General Conclusions

Based on this EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart) while also being in a short-term corrective structure. The corrective wave sequence appears largely complete and could only extend further if a lasting ceasefire is established among Iran, the United States, Israel, and all other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, a new downward wave sequence may begin from current levels. A failed attempt to break above 1.1824 could lead to a pullback from recent highs.

On lower timeframes, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size—for example, the higher-level wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such formations do occur. It is important to focus on clear and understandable structures rather than rigidly adhering to every wave. The trend may reverse in the near future.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.
2. If you are uncertain about market conditions, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

Last week, a reaction was seen from bullish imbalance 12, which marked the beginning of the bullish advance. Of course, if geopolitics had not turned against the bears, the bullish move might not have materialized. Still, patterns are not meaningless. Traders had the opportunity to open long positions, which are now showing strong profits.

Over the weekend, the geopolitical backdrop changed sharply, but traders seem to have largely ignored it—or interpreted it differently. However, what matters is that a valid buy signal formed, allowing traders to enter positions that are now highly profitable. I must admit I doubted that bulls would be able to continue pushing this week, but the outcome has been favorable.

All the strength in the U.S. dollar over the past one and a half to two months was driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, bears quickly retreated and bulls surged forward. At present, the ceasefire remains fragile but is still holding despite the failure of negotiations in Islamabad.

I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, even after the break of key trend-forming lows. The movement of the past two months could turn into a bearish trend if geopolitics deteriorates further—but how much worse can it get? Most of the worst-case scenarios have already occurred. Markets often price in the most pessimistic outcomes in advance. Therefore, it is possible that traders have already fully priced in the Middle East conflict.

The technical picture has become clearer: the price showed no reaction to imbalance 11 and failed to resume its decline, with no sell signal formed; it then reacted to imbalance 12, generating a bullish signal within the prevailing uptrend; additionally, a new bullish imbalance (13) has formed, acting as both a potential buying zone and a support level for the euro.

The bullish advance has been so strong that the euro has not yet retraced to imbalance 13, though it may do so later.

The news background on Tuesday was weak, with almost no economic data releases. However, Donald Trump has begun blocking Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, preventing them from delivering oil to buyers. Oil is once again trading near $100 per barrel—and it is fortunate that it is around $100. These are futures prices; spot purchases could already cost at least $150.

Bulls still have plenty of reasons to stay active, and even the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not diminished them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which contributed to a sharp decline in the dollar last year—have not changed.

In the short term, the U.S. dollar may still strengthen due to risk aversion, but this factor cannot provide lasting support. It would require continuous escalation in the Middle East, which is unlikely. There are no other strong drivers supporting the dollar. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar received temporary support, but what will sustain bears in the long term?

Economic calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Industrial Production (09:00 UTC)
• Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (19:30 UTC)

On April 15, the economic calendar includes two events that are not particularly significant. The impact of news flow on market sentiment on Wednesday is expected to be minimal or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news backdrop shifted sharply two months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. In the near term, bulls may continue their advance, provided geopolitics does not dominate market attention entirely.

Traders had an opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, targeting around 1.1670. This target has already been reached, and the upward movement may continue toward this year's highs. A new imbalance (13) has also formed, which could generate another bullish signal.

For uninterrupted euro growth, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward a stable peace—something that is not currently evident. However, bears are also not gaining new reasons to attack. In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis.

The first is technical. Last week, a new bullish imbalance was formed, and the price effectively tested it overnight on Monday and received a reaction. In other words, a bullish signal was generated within a bullish trend.

The second reason is again geopolitical. The market has had enough time and opportunities to price in the most pessimistic scenario in the Middle East. After the failed negotiations in Islamabad, nothing has changed. Oil has not reached new record highs, no new missile strikes have occurred, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The situation has not improved, but it has not worsened either.

As mentioned in previous analyses, an important and relatively rare "Three Drives Pattern" was formed, which triggered the upward movement. Thus, traders received a bullish signal while the trend remained bullish throughout. At present, the ceasefire remains fragile, and the parties involved in the conflict have yet to decide whether to continue negotiations or resume hostilities. Talks may resume this week, as reported multiple times by the media. The Strait of Hormuz is now under a dual blockade, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could potentially join it, which is a negative factor. However, as of Tuesday, the overall situation has not changed. Conditions in the Middle East may deteriorate, but they may also continue toward de-escalation.

The probability of a decline in both pairs remains, as the ceasefire in the Middle East is quite fragile. At the same time, the "Three Drives Pattern," marked on the chart by a triangle, allowed bulls to take control, which is a positive factor. It is always advantageous to receive a buy signal within a bullish trend, as such signals have the highest probability of success. Monday's signal was somewhat difficult to act on in time, but signals can form at any time of day. In the near term, the pound may continue rising toward this year's highs.

There was no significant economic news on Tuesday. Therefore, the pound's growth is not related to economic data. The geopolitical situation has not improved in recent days, but the most pessimistic scenario has already been priced in by the market. For bears to regain control, the situation in the Middle East would need to worsen significantly—for example, a resumption of hostilities or a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

In the United States, the overall backdrop remains such that, in the long term, there are few reasons to expect strength in the dollar. The conflict between Iran and the United States has not materially changed this outlook. The long-term situation for the dollar remains challenging: the U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is increasingly approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not planning monetary tightening in 2026. Additionally, a fourth large wave of protests against Donald Trump has taken place across the country. From an economic standpoint, there are no clear drivers for dollar appreciation.

A sustained bearish trend in GBP/USD would require a strong and stable positive backdrop for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under the current administration. Geopolitics supported the dollar for two months, but this support is now fading. While it cannot be ruled out that the dollar may strengthen again due to geopolitical factors, there are currently no clear reasons to expect this.

Economic calendar for the US and the UK:

• UK – Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (18:00 UTC)

On April 15, the economic calendar contains one relatively important event. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment may emerge in the evening.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" signaled potential growth, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and a bullish signal. The price swept liquidity from the last two bullish swings, but bears did not step in—another positive sign for the pound.

Under the current circumstances, despite geopolitical risks, I expect the upward movement to continue. The euro is also likely to keep rising. The target for the pound is the 2026 high, with the immediate target (nearest target) at 1.3580—imbalance 16, which has not yet been tested. A reaction from this level may trigger a corrective pullback.

The euro is posting gains for the seventh consecutive day, returning to levels seen at the start of the conflict between the United States and Iran. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1800, reflecting an increase of approximately 0.37% on the day.

The recent rise is driven by improved risk appetite and renewed hopes for the resumption of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. According to reports, a second round of talks may take place as early as this week after U.S. President Donald Trump announced Iran's readiness to continue discussions.

These developments have raised expectations for a possible agreement, which in turn has reduced demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset and contributed to a pullback in oil prices from recent highs. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near the 98.00 level—its lowest since March 2.

Additional pressure on the dollar comes from the latest March PPI data, which came in below analysts' expectations. The headline PPI rose by 0.5% month-over-month, below the forecast of 1.2%, and was unchanged compared to the downwardly revised figure for the previous month, also at 0.5%. On a yearly basis, PPI increased by 4.0%, also below the expected 4.6%.

These figures suggest that, despite the impact of high oil prices reflected in last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, underlying price pressures at the producer level remain relatively contained. This allows the Federal Reserve to remain patient before making adjustments to its policy.

However, oil prices remain elevated, continuing to pose inflation risks and keeping major central banks cautious. Under current conditions, markets are pricing in the possibility of two interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated in an interview with Bloomberg that Europe is not at the center of the impact from the U.S.–Iran conflict and added that the region's economy is developing within the ECB's baseline and adverse scenarios. She confirmed that monetary policy will continue to be data-dependent and emphasized that the ECB is not inclined toward tightening at this stage.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also revised its growth forecasts, now expecting eurozone GDP to grow by 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, down from previous estimates of 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively. For the United States, growth is now projected at 2.3% in 2026, slightly below the previous forecast of 2.4%. The 2027 forecast, however, was revised slightly upward to 2.1% from 2.0%.

From a technical perspective, oscillators remain positive, confirming bullish dominance in the market. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a possible correction. Therefore, any pullback may present a buying opportunity.

Peace talks between the United States and Iran held in Islamabad have ended without resolution, resulting in a stark shift in Washington's stance. US President Donald Trump promptly announced the initiation of a naval blockade on Iranian ports, effectively sealing off key hydrocarbon export routes. This move has escalated a protracted diplomatic crisis into a phase of open confrontation, creating a situation of maximum uncertainty for global trade flows.

The energy sector reacted immediately, with markets beginning to factor in the risks of physical shortages of raw materials. Analysts warn that the blockade of maritime routes could trigger an uncontrollable spike in oil prices, which would, in turn, hinder global economic growth. Follow the link for more details.

NASDAQ 100 futures dip amid military threats

The US stock market faced significant selling pressure right after news broke regarding the failure of dialogue between the United States and Iran. NASDAQ 100 futures saw a notable decline as investors feared the direct impact of the military blockade on global supply chains and the production costs for tech giants. Rising energy costs are traditionally viewed by market as an additional tax on consumption, threatening the pace of digitalization and corporate expenditure.

Negative sentiment is fueled by expectations of retaliatory measures from Tehran, leading capital to flow into safe-haven assets. Institutional investors are reducing positions in riskier assets, concerned that an extended conflict will elevate inflation expectations and compel regulators to maintain high interest rates for a longer period. Many experienced traders are using the current index dip to hedge portfolios with tools from InstaForex for effective selling during moments of market panic. Follow the link for more details.

S&P 500 dilemma: record profits vs. geopolitical Middle East shock

Despite the US stock market posting its best annual results in some time, the ongoing situation in the Middle East calls a continued rally into question. Corporate profit forecasts remain optimistic. However, the factor of expensive oil poses a "black swan" risk for the S&P 500 index. Increased costs for transportation and energy could offset the positive impact of robust quarterly reports, creating conditions for a significant correction in the overheated market.

Investors are currently seeking a balance between the fundamental resilience of US companies and external shocks. While fundamental indicators suggest growth potential, the geopolitical risk premium continues to rise, prompting traders to exercise caution. Follow the link for more details.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that high oil, gasoline, and diesel prices are already being felt by consumers. The agency said this risks causing the first annual drop in crude oil demand since 2020. On the face of it, bad news for the euro: sustained high Brent prices would hurt the energy-import-dependent eurozone. Yet EUR/USD is rising.

Dynamics of oil and EUR/USD

The situation is actually paradoxical. MUFG Research estimates that a 40% rally in oil since the start of the Middle East conflict should have knocked the major currency pair down by at least 3%. Instead, EUR/USD has returned to pre-war levels. The firm attributes this to euro?positive factors such as monetary policy divergence and a rise in global risk appetite.

Indeed, Donald Trump's comment that he had received a call from Iran helped catalyze the S&P 500's return to pre-war levels. Investors are buying the rumor of peace in the Middle East, genuinely hoping follow-up talks will take place before April 21, the expiry of the two-week ceasefire. Switzerland is reportedly ready to act as mediator this time.

The US president said a compromise had been found on most points except the key issue — Iran's nuclear program. According to a Bloomberg insider, the Americans wanted to freeze it for 20 years, while Iran sought only a five-year freeze. Supporters are ready for renewed talks, which has lifted both global risk appetite and EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD pair has come under the sway of FOMO. It also helped the bulls that speculators, in the week to April 7, increased net long positions in the US dollar to a 14-month high. It's a short step from love to hate — mass short covering of the greenback created a strong tailwind for EUR/USD.

Technically, on the daily chart, bulls quickly closed the week-open gap and stormed through resistance at the pivot level of 1.176. That level now acts as key support. As long as EUR/USD trades above it, the bias should be to buy. Targets for longs are 1.1830 and 1.1915.

While traders wait for a breakout above that range, I'd like to return to the CLARITY topic I raised this morning.

Yesterday, journalists asked Federal Reserve official Steven Miran a couple of timely questions. In the interview, he was asked for his view on a proposal to allow stablecoin issuers — digital assets pegged to the US dollar — to pay interest to holders. The idea has received some support within the Trump administration but faces fierce opposition from some banking groups, which fear it could pull depositors away and cause sharp deposit outflows.

"Honestly, I don't see this as such a big problem," Miran said. "Paying interest could reallocate some deposits from banks to stablecoins, but I'm not convinced the scale of that change would have meaningful economic significance."

The official said stablecoins' primary function is to provide liquidity and reduce transaction costs, not to compete with banks for deposits. He noted that if stablecoins can offer competitive interest rates, that would reflect market conditions rather than create a new systemic problem. "It's important that any new form of digital asset, whether stablecoins or something else, operate in a context of fair competition and not undermine financial stability," the Fed representative emphasized.

He added that regulators are closely watching the development of the stablecoin market and are ready to act if risks to financial stability emerge.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $74,600, which would open a direct path to $76,600 and then $78,400. The longer-term target is the high near $80,100; a break above that would signal an attempt to return to a bull market. On a pullback, I expect buyers to step in at $73,000. A drop back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400, with a further target around $69,800.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,410 would open a direct path to $2,499. The further target is the high near $2,585; a break above that would strengthen bullish sentiment and revive buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers to step in at $2,319. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,244, with a further target around $2,162.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The test of the 159.07 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by more than 20 points.

Today's U.S. trading session is expected to be active, as market participants focus on the release of key macroeconomic indicators. Of particular interest are the core Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which excludes fluctuations in food and energy prices. In the context of high oil prices, these figures will serve as an important reference point for assessing inflation trends in the United States. In light of recent Federal Reserve statements, any deviation from forecasts—whether higher or lower inflation—could significantly affect market expectations regarding future Fed actions, especially concerning possible changes in the key interest rate.

In addition, speeches are scheduled from two influential members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — Austan D. Goolsbee and Michael S. Barr. Their comments on the state of the economy, inflation outlook, and future monetary policy direction will be closely analyzed.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 159.01 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 159.60 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.60, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). A rise in the pair today is possible if economic data is strong.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.70 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward 159.01 and 159.60 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 158.70 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 158.32, where I will exit shorts and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return today if data is weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.01 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 158.70 and 158.32 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before important fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.3521 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.3551.

Expectations of an imminent start of new negotiations between the United States and Iran, which are rumored to take place as early as this week, are generating a wave of optimism. Investors see a potential resolution of the conflict as a factor capable of stabilizing the geopolitical situation. In this context, GBP/USD is attracting increased attention. The British pound, despite its inherent volatility, is often considered a relatively stable currency. Increased risk appetite driven by the prospect of reduced tensions between two major global powers may encourage capital inflows into the pound, as investors look for diversification opportunities.

The impact of a potential US–Iran peace agreement could be multifaceted. A reduction in geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf region could lead to stabilization of energy prices, which in turn would positively affect the global economy. This would certainly improve investor sentiment and their willingness to invest in riskier but potentially more profitable assets, including developed market currencies.

The US session is also expected to be eventful. Of particular interest are the Producer Price Index (PPI) and its core version. The PPI reflects changes in prices for goods and services sold by producers. Its dynamics serve as a leading indicator of consumer inflation, since these costs are often passed on to end consumers. In light of recent Federal Reserve statements aimed at containing inflation, PPI data becomes especially significant. Any deviation from forecasts—whether higher or lower inflation—could significantly affect market expectations regarding the Fed's next steps.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3558 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3590 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3590, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). The pound's growth today can be expected within the bullish market context.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3538 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.3558 and 1.3590 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a breakdown of the 1.3538 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3513, where I will exit shorts and open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return today if US data is strong.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3558 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3538 and 1.3513 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before important fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1770 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair stopped just one step short of the target level of 1.1801.

Investors continue to place hopes on easing tensions in the Middle East, which could contribute to stabilizing oil prices and reducing geopolitical risks. Such a scenario creates conditions for accelerating growth in the European economy and strengthening the euro.

Today, particular attention will be focused on the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index and its core version, which excludes food and energy components. These PPI data are expected to provide valuable insight into inflationary processes in the U.S. manufacturing sector following the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the sharp rise in oil prices.

In addition to statistical data, the U.S. trading session will include speeches from Federal Reserve representatives. Statements by FOMC members Austan D. Goolsbee and Michael S. Barr will be closely analyzed for comments on the current economic situation and the outlook for monetary policy. Markets are expected to respond with increased volatility. It is important to note that any hints of monetary tightening may put downward pressure on risk assets, while a more dovish tone could trigger growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro upon reaching the level of 1.1802 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1841. At 1.1841, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Growth in the euro today should only be expected after very weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1775 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1802 and 1.1841 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1775 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1742, where I intend to exit the market and consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return today in the event of strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1802 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1775 and 1.1742 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Expectations that new peace talks between the U.S. and Iran will be more successful are clearly driving demand for risk assets. Traders are hoping for easing tensions in the Middle East, which could lead to stabilization in oil prices and a reduction in geopolitical risks. This, in turn, creates favorable conditions for the growth of the European economy and strengthens the euro.

During the U.S. trading session, traders will closely monitor macroeconomic releases that could significantly impact currency market dynamics. Particular attention will be paid to the Producer Price Index (PPI) and its core version, which excludes volatile food and energy categories. These data are critically important in the context of the current crude oil market environment, which remains under close scrutiny by analysts and market participants. The published PPI figures are expected to show strong growth and provide valuable insight into future inflation trends in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Against the backdrop of recent energy price fluctuations, traders will look for signals indicating how much these changes are already being reflected in producer prices.

In addition to economic data, the U.S. session will feature speeches from Federal Reserve representatives. FOMC member Austan D. Goolsbee and FOMC member Michael S. Barr will address audiences, and their comments on the current economic situation and monetary policy outlook will be closely analyzed. Statements from Fed officials may provide new guidance on future interest rate decisions, which could, in turn, have a noticeable impact on currency exchange rates.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1800 may lead to a rise toward 1.1825 and 1.1850
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1780 may lead to a decline toward 1.1735 and 1.1680

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3555 may lead to a rise toward 1.3575 and 1.3605
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3535 may lead to a decline toward 1.3500 and 1.3480

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.13 may lead to a rise toward 159.40 and 159.84
• Selling on a breakout below 158.80 may lead to a decline toward 158.57 and 158.25

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1809 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1765 and a return to this level

For GBP/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3559 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3516 and a return to this level

For AUD/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7130 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7097 and a return to this level

For USD/CAD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3774 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3745 and a return to this level

The GBP/JPY exchange rate has broken above the round level of 215.00 and is aiming for its 2008 high. Moreover, fundamentals support the likelihood of a continuation of the recent upward trend observed over the past two weeks.

Despite growing economic uncertainty caused by the conflict with Iran, traders still assess the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike at the April monetary policy meeting as high. This, combined with expectations of possible intervention by Japanese authorities to prevent further weakening of the national currency, provides some support to the yen and adds pressure on the GBP/JPY pair. However, bullish sentiment toward the yen is being questioned amid economic risks related to potential external energy shocks caused by instability in the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan is heavily dependent on oil imports from the Middle East, and uncertainty surrounding this strategically important waterway continues to fuel concerns that the economy may face significant pressure in the future. This, in turn, weighs on the yen.

On the other side of the pair, the British pound is benefiting from the weakening US dollar and growing expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England.

At present, traders are pricing in about 78 basis points of monetary tightening in 2026 starting from April, which supports bullish sentiment in GBP/JPY.

This, along with the recent rebound from the important technical 100-day simple moving average (SMA), creates a positive short-term outlook, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is upward. Therefore, any pullback may be viewed as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain limited. Oscillators are positive, indicating bullish dominance in the market, while the Relative Strength Index is close to overbought territory, signaling the possibility of a correction.

The Japanese yen strengthened to the 159.00 level against the US dollar, but bullish sentiment remains constrained due to risks in the Strait of Hormuz. The USD/JPY currency pair is expected to continue a moderate correction and is likely to decline amid mixed fundamental signals, although the downside potential is limited.

Despite setbacks in peace talks between the US and Iran over the past weekend, investors remain hopeful that diplomatic opportunities with Iran are not exhausted and that discussions may continue. US Vice President JD Vance noted that some progress has been made, although no breakthrough has yet occurred. This optimism undermines the US dollar and is one of the key factors putting pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

In addition, uncertainty regarding inflation risks and possible changes in Federal Reserve interest rates has pushed the dollar down to its March lows.

Data released on Friday showed that US inflation has risen at its fastest pace in the past four years. This has prompted investors to consider the possibility of interest rate hikes this year due to geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, traders have not fully abandoned expectations of rate cuts.

At the same time, the Japanese yen may struggle to attract strong buying interest due to economic concerns related to potential external energy shocks caused by instability in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump announced the start of a blockade of this strategically important waterway involving the US Navy and pledged to destroy Iranian military vessels approaching the area. In response, Iran issued threats against all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Given that Japan is heavily dependent on oil imports from the Middle East, ongoing uncertainty continues to fuel concerns that the economy may face significant pressure in the near future. This discourages traders from opening aggressive bullish positions in the yen and helps limit more significant losses for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, expectations of intervention by Japanese authorities to prevent further yen weakening may cap gains in the pair.

From a technical perspective, the pair has found support at the 20-day SMA and the round level of 159.00. If this level fails to hold, prices may fall toward 158.35 and then to the April low near the round level of 158.00.

However, if prices hold above this level, the next target will be the round level of 160.00. It is also worth noting that oscillators on the daily chart are positive, giving bulls the advantage.

The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese yen against major currencies today. The yen posted its strongest gains against the Australian dollar.

The EUR/USD exchange rate is rising, reaching the round level of 1.1800 and hitting its highest levels since March, as expectations of diplomatic progress on the Iranian issue are putting pressure on the US dollar. As a result, EUR/USD has strengthened for the eighth consecutive day.

Despite the lack of concrete results from peace talks over the weekend, market participants remain interested in riskier assets, hoping that the diplomatic window for Iran will remain open. US Vice President JD Vance expressed moderate optimism about the progress of negotiations, noting tangible progress, albeit without final agreements. This dynamic reduces the attractiveness of the US dollar, thereby supporting the euro.

Additional pressure on the US currency comes from uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rates. The dollar is holding near its lowest levels since early March, although risks associated with instability in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are limiting excessive investor optimism.

US President Donald Trump previously confirmed the start of an official blockade of the strategic maritime route by the US Navy and threatened to destroy Iranian military vessels approaching the restricted zone. In response, Iran issued threats against ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, maintaining a high level of geopolitical tension.

Moreover, concerns about a possible breakdown of the ceasefire and a resumption of armed conflict are partially supporting the dollar, limiting aggressive bullish positions on EUR/USD. Nevertheless, underlying macroeconomic factors continue to favor the development of the pair's upward trend, which began from the March lows.

From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above all moving averages, and oscillators are positive, indicating bullish dominance in the market. After breaking above the round level of 1.1800, the pair is likely to move toward the next round level of 1.1900, with resistance along the way in the 1.1820–1.1850 level.

The nearest support is at 1.1750; if this level fails to hold, prices may decline toward the round level of 1.1700. However, as long as oscillators remain positive, the path of least resistance is upward.

On Tuesday, gold (XAU/USD) reached a new daily high but faced difficulty continuing its upward movement and remained below the $4,800 level. Although peace talks between the US and Iran failed over the weekend, investors appear confident that opportunities for a diplomatic solution still exist and that discussions will continue. In addition, uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve interest rate changes is weighing on the dollar, which in turn is supporting gold following its recent rebound from the $4,620 level.

US Vice President JD Vance expressed cautious optimism regarding negotiations with Iran, stating in an interview with Fox News that significant progress had been made, although a breakout is still far off. He emphasized that a framework for a comprehensive agreement could become a reality if Iran takes the next step. This optimism, in turn, supports a positive risk sentiment and weakens the dollar, which is favorable for dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.

Meanwhile, the energy shock caused by escalating conflict in the Middle East is intensifying concerns about a potential increase in inflationary pressure. Additionally, data released on Friday showed that US consumer inflation in March rose to its highest level in nearly four years due to a surge in energy prices linked to the war, shifting attention toward the possibility of interest rate hikes this year. However, CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 30% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which further weakens the dollar and supports gold.

These factors contributed to XAU/USD rising to the $4,800 level over the past hour, although this increase does not indicate strong bullish enthusiasm amid ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump announced the start of a blockade of this strategically important waterway by the US Navy and pledged to destroy Iranian military vessels approaching it. Iran responded with threats against all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. These geopolitical risks continue to restrain aggressive bearish positioning on the US dollar, thereby limiting further gains in the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, oscillators have not yet fully shifted into positive territory, so bulls should proceed with caution.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. Recent news about a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new bullish wave. The picture now resembles the beginning of a new bullish trend. However, over the weekend, the geopolitical backdrop turned negative again, which will make it much more difficult for bulls to continue their advance compared to last week.

On Monday, there was only one major piece of news. Donald Trump announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. What is the point, if the strait has already been blocked by Iran for more than a month, which triggered a sharp rise in energy prices? The point is precisely to make the blockade complete, including Iranian tankers transporting oil to China and other Asian countries. Donald Trump decided to strike Iran's financial sector, which relies almost entirely on oil sales—especially under current difficult energy conditions. Thus, the volume of oil entering the market should decrease even further, but surprisingly, benchmark oil prices barely changed yesterday. Moreover, the US dollar declined throughout the day, something traders may have grown unaccustomed to over the past month and a half. Why is the dollar falling instead of rising? In my view, the situation in the Middle East has not worsened due to the additional blockade, the oil shortage has not become critical, military actions have not resumed, and negotiations between Iran and the US may continue this week. Therefore, the market remains cautiously optimistic.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1706, allowing continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 1.1778. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and lead to some decline toward 1.1706 and 1.1617. Consolidation above 1.1778 would increase the chances of further growth. Bulls have managed to exit the descending trend channel, opening up additional opportunities. There are currently no emerging divergences.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 778 long positions and 8,826 short positions. Over seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 201,000, while short positions total 208,000. Two months ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, major players remain interested in the euro. However, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict shows no sign of ending. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war involving Iran. The US dollar may once again benefit from this situation.

Economic calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• US – Weekly change in ADP employment (12:15 UTC)
• US – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC)

On April 14, the economic calendar contains only two minor entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be very weak or absent.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound from 1.1770 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1696. Buying positions are advisable upon a close above 1.1770, with a target of 1.1830.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave situation is once again turning "bullish." The latest upward wave has broken the previous peak, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had given bears almost complete dominance in the market for two months, then the geopolitical background began to shift in a more favorable direction, giving bulls more confidence. For several weeks, the pound traded sideways between the levels of 1.3177 and 1.3465, but yesterday it managed to break out of this range.

The news background on Monday can be called positive, but for bears rather than bulls. I think many were surprised by the pound's growth during the day, considering that it fell sharply at the market open. Why did bulls launch a new attack if there were no positive geopolitical developments? I believe the market has shifted its focus from daily news to the broader geopolitical "plateau." In other words, traders are now assessing the overall situation rather than individual events and news. Looking at the bigger picture, little has changed over the past three days. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by US military ships has not changed anything in the oil market, negotiations between Iran and the US may resume soon, and no new strikes in the Middle East have been recorded in recent days. Thus, the parties are adhering to a two-week ceasefire, which gives hope for the end of the conflict. According to many military experts, US naval forces will not be able to hold the Strait of Hormuz for long. Escalation is possible, as Iran will likely attempt to break the blockade and possibly strike US ships. However, this has not happened yet. Oil prices at the beginning of the new week are relatively stable.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel, and after several weeks of hesitation, the bulls have finally gone on the offensive. Consolidation above the resistance level of 1.3439–1.3482 allows expectations of further pound growth toward the levels of 1.3540 and 1.3664. Bearish divergences are forming on the CCI and RSI indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,960, while short positions decreased by 217. The gap between long and short positions is now essentially: 47,000 vs. 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have actively increased short positions and reduced longs, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, there was first a correction while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the conflict in the Middle East began escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only reason for the strengthening of the US dollar.

Economic calendar for the US and the UK:

• US – Weekly change in ADP employment (12:15 UTC)
• US – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC)

On April 14, the economic calendar contains only two minor entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be minimal. Traders continue to focus primarily on geopolitical news.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3526–1.3539 level, with a target of 1.3437–1.3465. Buying was possible upon a close above the 1.3437–1.3465 level with a target of 1.3526–1.3539 (this target has been reached). New buying opportunities arise upon a close above 1.3526–1.3539 with a target of 1.3604–1.3620.

Fibonacci retracement levels are built from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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S&P 500 performance

The main drivers are expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East and the US first-quarter earnings season. S&P 500 earnings per share are expected to rise about 12.5%, which is supporting buyers.

But can strong corporate results truly break the link with oil and Treasury yields? So far, this decoupling is happening against a backdrop of fatigue with geopolitical news.

The S&P 500 rally has been the result of buying the rumor of de-escalation. Yes, the first talks between the United States and Iran failed after more than 20 hours, but Donald Trump says the right people in Tehran want a deal. Hopes for peace in the Middle East provide a tailwind for the broad index. It is possible that once the war is definitively over, markets will sell the facts.

Strip out geopolitics, and the fundamentals for the US equity market look solid. The US economy is growing faster than in recent periods, driven in part by AI-induced gains in labor productivity. Moreover, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the associated demand for oil supplies from other regions by Europe and Asia have allowed the United States to push oil exports to a record 5 million b/d, up from 4 million b/d in 2025 and at higher prices. America is profiting from the conflict, and that inevitably supports corporate earnings.

Dynamics of S&P 500 and P/E ratio

A basis for buying equities is the fact that the S&P 500 correction has reduced fundamental valuations of US companies. Many now look undervalued and attractive — software makers in particular. Earlier in the year, there were wide fears that AI technologies would wreck this sector. Geopolitics has given investors time to differentiate which issuers to buy and which to avoid.

Thus, earnings season, US economic strength, and hopes for peace in the Middle East underpin the stock rally.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 is recovering its uptrend following a breakout of the key pivot at 6,845. That level now acts as critical support. Earlier established longs with targets at 6,890 and 6,950 should be held and added to on pullbacks — especially since the first target is nearly in reach.

According to him, the document addressing yield on stablecoins will be presented this week. The initiative is part of broader efforts to regulate crypto assets under the CLARITY bill, which aims to create a more predictable and secure environment for all market participants.

The main sticking point in current debates is whether stablecoins should accrue interest. Representatives of traditional banks strongly oppose this practice, fearing it could undermine the banking system and create unfair competition. They argue that banks, as heavily regulated financial institutions, cannot compete with crypto projects offering such attractive yields.

By contrast, the crypto industry views yield on stablecoins as a fundamental element that allows it to compete with traditional financial services. Proponents stress that attractive interest rates are what make stablecoins competitive with conventional savings accounts and deposits. They contend that capping yields would strip the crypto sector of a key tool for attracting users and capital, potentially slowing its development and innovation.

Tillis's proposed agreement is expected to seek a compromise acceptable to both sides. The details of the document will be decisive for the future regulation of stablecoins in the US and their role in the financial system. Success in resolving this dispute could set an important precedent for the further development of the crypto market in the country.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $74,600, which would open a direct path to $76,600 and then $78,400. The farther target is the high near $80,100; a break above that would signal attempts to return to a bull market. On a pullback, I expect buyers to step in at $73,000. A drop back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400, with a further target around $69,800.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,368 would open a direct path to $2,466. The farther target is the high near $2,585; a break above that would strengthen bullish sentiment and revive buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers to step in at $2,296. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,222, with a further target around $2,162.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.