New York Fed President John Williams said that if the Fed's preferred measure of core inflation, the core PCE price index, rises at a rate of 0.2% per month in the second half of 2026, that would imply movement toward the Fed's 2% year?over?year goal. He said such a pace would be consistent with a continued disinflationary process. It is rare for a Fed official to give the market such a clear and measurable benchmark, and traders will almost certainly use this figure when assessing each future report.

The very fact that this benchmark has been articulated is no accident and reflects a growing hawkish tilt within the regulator. The Fed has held interest rates unchanged in the last 12 months, but more and more Fed officials now advocate for a rate hike. In the June economic projections, nine FOMC members penciled in at least one 25?basis?point increase this year, and the minutes of that meeting — released on Wednesday — showed that several participants already saw grounds for action. The minutes recorded that policymakers discussed how to respond to different inflation scenarios, and Williams described this as a demonstration of the Fed's collective response function — the framework in which the central bank assesses the economy and crafts its response to specific conditions.

What is more surprising is that John Williams pinpointed the main source of his inflation concern: artificial intelligence. He said that, of all the inflationary factors in the US, he is most focused on AI?driven demand. "If this creates a persistent demand impulse relative to supply that leads to inflation, I think you shouldn't ignore that factor," he said at a New York Fed event. That marks a notable shift in rhetoric.

Williams' logic for the Fed's next steps remains conditional and wholly data?dependent. If inflation proves more persistent and significantly exceeds his baseline, monetary policy will have to respond. If conditions are more favorable, policy, he said, is well positioned and can remain so.

For markets, the official's comments add a new, independent layer of complexity to the familiar hawkish arguments such as tariffs and an energy shock. Structural AI?driven demand will not disappear with de?escalation in the Middle Eastern conflict or stabilization in oil prices, which means the Fed could have reason to stay cautious even in a benign geopolitical scenario.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD

Buyers now need to focus on taking the 1.1460 level. Only that would allow targeting a test of 1.1480. From there, a move to 1.1505 is possible, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. On the downside, I expect meaningful buying only around 1.1430. If there is no demand there, it would be better to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1410 or to open long positions from 1.1390.

Technical outlook for GBP/USD

For pound buyers, the near resistance to take is 1.3445. Only a break above that would allow targeting 1.3480, above which pushing higher will be rather difficult. The farther target is the 1.3510 area. On the downside, bears will try to take control of 1.3405. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD down to about 1.3380, with the prospect of extending to 1.3355.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — the US benchmark grade — has paused at the 9-day EMA amid mixed statements from Washington and Tehran. At the moment, the price is trading around $71.50, trying to hold the level as markets await further news from the Middle East crisis.

Geopolitical tension rose again this week after US forces carried out retaliatory strikes on Iran in response to Tehran's attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran replied by striking facilities linked to US forces in Bahrain and Kuwait. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced the end of an existing truce, which pushed oil prices higher in the first half of the week.

Market fears began to ease, however, after Trump said on Thursday that Iran had called on the US for diplomatic talks to de-escalate the conflict. A US administration official also confirmed adherence to a memorandum of understanding with Iran.

These factors, combined with OPEC+'s decision to further increase target production levels, could constrain upside in oil prices and make traders more cautious about committing to buys.

Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected build in crude stocks for the week ended July 3 — the first increase in 11 weeks. Commercial inventories rose by 2.998 million barrels, well above analysts' expectations, adding further downward pressure on oil prices.

From a technical perspective, oil is attempting to stay above the 9-day EMA, but the odds favor a drop as momentum oscillators sit in negative territory, confirming the bears' edge. The next support is the round level of $69.00, followed by July's low near $66.90.

On the upside, the 200-day SMA is the key resistance; a sustained move above it would give bulls a chance to push prices higher.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish despite two weeks of buying pressure. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the current upward wave has yet to exceed the previous high and is still developing. The geopolitical backdrop has improved considerably in recent weeks, as military activity in the Middle East has at least paused, and Iran and the United States have signed a preliminary agreement. However, it will only be possible to conclude that the bearish trend has ended if the pair breaks above 1.1620 or if two consecutive bullish waves are formed.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday was extremely light. Germany's trade balance report, released in the morning, significantly exceeded market expectations. Later in the day, the United States published initial jobless claims and existing home sales data. The first report was broadly in line with forecasts, while the second came in weaker than expected. Thus, two of the three economic releases supported the euro and bullish sentiment. However, given the relatively low importance of these reports, the market reaction was minimal.

Throughout the day, no new statements were made by either Tehran or Washington regarding the conflict in the Middle East or the negotiations that were expected to resume on July 11. Therefore, it remains unclear whether a new round of talks between the US and Iranian delegations will take place tomorrow or whether negotiations have been postponed indefinitely. In any case, the market remains calm. The absence of negotiations does not necessarily imply a resumption of the conflict. Likewise, new strikes near the Strait of Hormuz do not automatically signal a return to full-scale hostilities, as recent developments have shown. For now, sellers have little reason to regain control.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has secured a close above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1411, allowing traders to anticipate further gains toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1514. A renewed close below 1.1411 would increase the likelihood of a decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1291. No developing divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators. The descending trend channel remains intact.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 11,674 Long positions and opened 17,385 Short positions. Over the seven weeks spanning February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared amid the conflict involving Iran. During the past fourteen weeks, positioning has gradually become more balanced following the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. Speculative traders currently hold approximately 235,000 Long positions and 235,000 Short positions.

From a longer-term perspective, large market participants continue to favor the euro. Naturally, global developments—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market remains focused on developments in the Middle East, where military operations have paused and negotiations have begun, potentially paving the way for a lasting peace agreement. However, the market is still largely ignoring the improvement in the geopolitical environment, along with several other factors that continue to support the euro.

Economic Calendar for the Eurozone and the United States

• Germany: Consumer Price Index (final reading for June) — 06:00 UTC

The economic calendar for July 10 contains only one release, which can hardly be considered significant. Therefore, macroeconomic data is once again unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Long positions became valid after the pair secured a close above 1.1409 on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1514. These positions may continue to be held today. Short positions may be considered if the pair closes below 1.1409 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1290. However, traders should keep in mind that current market movements remain exceptionally weak.

The Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The wave structure turned bullish last week. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has surpassed the previous high and continues to develop. This suggests that buyers remain in control, although I had expected this shift to occur two to three weeks earlier. Nevertheless, better late than never. In my view, the bearish impulse that dominated in 2026 has now come to an end.

The fundamental backdrop was virtually nonexistent on Thursday. Only two secondary US economic reports were released, and neither had any meaningful impact on market sentiment. If three weeks ago it could be argued that the US dollar was strengthening without sufficient justification, the British pound is now displaying a similar move. In effect, the market has balanced itself out. First, the dollar appreciated without a clear catalyst, and now the pound is doing the same. As a result, sterling has returned to price levels that appear broadly consistent with its fair value.

Therefore, a corrective pullback may be expected in the near term. No major events are scheduled for Friday, and buyers cannot continue driving the market higher indefinitely on optimism alone. Geopolitical developments are also providing little pressure on the pound, as the market simply does not believe around 90% of the news coming from the Middle East. At present, it remains unclear whether negotiations will resume. Officially, neither Tehran nor Washington has announced the end of diplomatic efforts. However, Donald Trump stated that he "no longer sees any point in talking to Iran." At the same time, the US president has shown no urgency in resuming military operations. The pound is benefiting from the current environment and the temporary easing of tensions.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3159, reversed in favor of the pound, and advanced toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. Therefore, traders may expect the upward move to continue toward the next Fibonacci retracement level at 38.2% (1.3467). A rebound from 1.3467 would favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward 1.3409 and 1.3348. No developing divergences are currently observed.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment among the Non-commercial group became less bearish over the latest reporting week, although it remains bearish overall. The number of Long positions held by speculative traders declined by 3,623, while Short positions decreased by 7,195. The gap between Long and Short positions now stands at approximately 37,000 versus 139,000. Bears have dominated positioning in recent months. While this dominance was previously well supported by market conditions, it has become more questionable as the fundamental backdrop has changed significantly. The advantage of bearish positions remains more than threefold.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. However, in the near term, market direction will depend less on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, and more on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, market sentiment has shifted toward expectations of peace. Nevertheless, negotiations between Iran and the United States could prove lengthy and difficult, and there is no guarantee they will end with the signing of a nuclear agreement.

Economic Calendar for the US and the UK

The economic calendar for July 10 contains no significant releases. Therefore, macroeconomic news is once again unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Short positions may be considered today if the pair rebounds from the 1.3454–1.3457 resistance level on the hourly chart, with downside targets at 1.3382 and 1.3335. Long positions were previously possible following a rebound from 1.3335, targeting 1.3382 and 1.3457. The first target has been reached, while the second has nearly been achieved. New long positions may be considered after a confirmed close above the 1.3454–1.3457 resistance level, with a target at 1.3526–1.3543.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3457–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

On Friday, gold (XAU/USD) is once again attempting to break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the early European session, consolidating near a two-day high.

The US dollar has now weakened for a third consecutive session following the release of the more dovish FOMC minutes, providing partial support for gold prices. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in 2026 remain in place. In addition, persistent geopolitical tensions continue to limit the dollar's downside, warranting caution before opening positions in anticipation of a continued recovery from Wednesday's weekly low.The minutes of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, published on Wednesday, revealed differing views among Committee members regarding the future path of interest rates. The document noted that many participants preferred to keep the federal funds target range unchanged or reduce it slightly by the end of this year. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials emphasized that further monetary policy tightening may still be necessary due to persistently elevated inflation risks. In addition, the CME FedWatch Tool continues to price in nearly an 85% probability of at least one Fed rate hike by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, renewed escalation between the United States and Iran has once again shifted attention to the oil market and its potential impact on inflation and global interest rates. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported airstrikes on 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems, missile positions, and naval logistics infrastructure along Iran's coastline. Tehran responded by launching missiles and drones at US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, warning of a broader regional response should the attacks continue. Nevertheless, market anxiety eased somewhat after Donald Trump stated that Iran had reportedly contacted the United States to negotiate an agreement, while the White House also reaffirmed its commitment to the relevant memorandum of understanding.

Overall, the mixed fundamental backdrop continues to keep investors cautious and suggests that gold requires stronger buying interest to confirm the formation of a short-term bottom. At the same time, XAU/USD remains near its nearest three-day resistance level, posting moderate weekly losses while trading below the 200-day SMA. This continues to support a bearish short-term bias despite improving momentum.

From a technical perspective, the nearest resistance remains the 20-day SMA, currently around $4,136, followed by the $4,145 level. A sustained break above this zone would open the way toward the weekly high in the $4,200–4,216 level.

At the same time, momentum oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming that sellers continue to hold the advantage. Initial support is provided by the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,050, followed by the $4,000 psychological level. Failure to hold these supports would expose the June low.

US equity indices dynamics

However, the real hero of the rebound was not the broad index — it was memory and chip manufacturers. Sandisk, Micron, and Western Digital led the rally, confirming that this group, rather than the Magnificent Seven, has become the preferred way to play AI. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has jumped by 83% since the start of the year, while Bloomberg's Magnificent Seven index is up only about 1.8%.

This looks less like a blip than a structural shift. The equal-weighted S&P 500 has outpaced the standard market-cap weighted version — +10.8% versus +9.3% year-to-date. That happens when the largest tech giants stop dragging the market higher solo and money spreads into less hyped names such as Dollar Tree and Hubbell. Even Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon have been stuck this year, lagging hundreds of other index constituents.

S&P 500 vs equal-weighted index dynamics

Wall Street forecasters have reason to worry. Many had assumed the Magnificent Seven — roughly one-third of the S&P 500 market cap — would carry the index to an average year?end target near 7,824. If the tech titans remain inactive, the rest of the index will have to deliver another 6.8% on top of the 13% it has already generated.

Panic over a wider regional escalation proved short-lived. Jefferies' base case is that cooler heads will prevail and the US and Iran will return to the negotiating table. The bank says it has diversified exposures toward Asia and Europe while maintaining a tactical stake in US tech.

BlackRock, for its part, argues that AI-related capex commitments will support the investment theme for another two to three years, even if some tech leaders begin generating negative free cash flow and tap the debt markets more aggressively.

The market has learned again to live with geopolitics rather than be dominated by it. The question is how long that calm will last if Tehran decides to re-assert itself.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the market clearly tested a pin-bar, enabling long positions initiated near 7,492 to be scaled up at 7,505. A successful break above the June high at 7,580 would be the next trigger to add to long positions.

Asian markets closed the week with strong gains, and AI optimism once again outweighed geopolitical concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific index climbed by 1.7%, cutting weekly losses to less than 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.9%, approaching its best week in over a year, while South Korea's KOSPI, a barometer of AI investment, rallied by 5%.

The renewed appetite for tech is primarily explained by dip buying after the week-start correction. Recall that earlier in the week, investors were unimpressed even by Samsung's 19-fold profit surge, which helped trigger the tech sell-off and renewed overheating concerns around the AI rally. Sentiment has already reversed: many concluded that the recent sell-off was somewhat excessive and did not fully reflect the sector's strong profits. Investors apparently decided that, despite lingering valuation concerns, tech stocks still offer the best prospects for revenue and earnings growth in the current environment.

An additional catalyst came from Micron. The company said it plans to raise capital spending for new US fabs to $250bn to meet AI-driven demand. Micron shares rose by 1.1% in after-hours trading. This is further evidence memory makers are aggressively expanding capacity, betting on durable demand.

In the forex market, the yen was the main story. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she would encourage pension funds to increase allocations to domestic financial assets, which pushed the currency higher. The yen strengthened by 0.5% to roughly 161.65 per dollar, and long-dated JGBs also rose.

Geopolitics remains tense but is noticeably less alarming to markets than at the start of the week. Technical talks between the US and Iran continue despite two days of clashes that threatened the fragile truce. A US official confirmed on Thursday that Washington remains committed to seeking a solution.

Oil stabilized near $76.70/bbl after traders concluded the conflict is unlikely to trigger broader supply disruptions. Treasuries gained, and the 10-year yield eased one basis point to 4.54%.

Technically, the daily chart suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,544. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,600 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,518. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,494 and open the way to $7,474.

In their view, sales of Bitcoin by the company Strategy, which controls roughly 4% of the circulating supply, can indeed produce periodic selling pressure, but they are not the main structural threat to Bitcoin. "We do not view Strategy as the primary structural threat to Bitcoin," the report says. A far more significant risk comes from traditional finance continuing to develop blockchain infrastructure that effectively bypasses public, permissionless networks.

The argument is that banks and large institutions are increasingly choosing closed, permissioned blockchain infrastructure rather than public networks like Ethereum, Solana, or Avalanche. The reason is simple and pragmatic: permissioned systems provide built-in KYC and AML procedures, privacy, governability, and clear legal accountability — precisely the features which public blockchains currently lack for truly institutional scale. JPMorgan backs this point with its own example: the bank's Kinexys platform, running on a closed permissioned network, has already processed more than $4 trillion in transactions. The report also cites the Bank for International Settlements, which has previously warned against using public permissioned blockchains for systemically important financial infrastructure because of issues with scalability, governance, legal responsibility, and settlement finality — a thesis we recently examined in detail in connection with the BIS annual report.

Notably, JPMorgan concludes that the CLARITY Act could, paradoxically, make things worse rather than solve the problem. Regulatory clarity might encourage banks to more actively issue their own tokenized deposits, strengthening incumbent financial institutions while reducing demand for stablecoins issued on public blockchains. "In such a scenario, tokenization of real-world assets risks remaining inside the traditional financial system, and public blockchains would be relegated from primary settlement infrastructure to a mere channel for distribution and secondary trading, which would structurally reduce capital and liquidity inflows to the entire public crypto ecosystem," the report states.

JPMorgan candidly acknowledges the limits of its forecast: it may not materialize if a hybrid model wins out in which public and private blockchains develop in parallel, if the stablecoin market continues to grow under favorable regulation, or if Bitcoin preserves its role as "digital gold" irrespective of the fate of the wider public blockchain infrastructure.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently aiming to reclaim $63,900, which would open a direct path to $65,600 and then toward $67,700 — a breach of the latter would signal attempts to revive the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $62,000. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $60,600. The furthest downside target would be around $58,700.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,784 opens the door to $1,838. The farther target is the high near $1,901; breaking above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $1,725. A drop back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $1,650. The furthest downside target would be around $1,573.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The price test at 162.36 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair only declined by 6 pips, and that was the end of it.

The yen strengthened sharply against the dollar after unexpected comments from Japan's Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama. She stated that authorities intend to encourage households and pension funds, including the massive GPIF with 293.6 trillion yen in assets, to increase their investments in domestic Japanese assets. The market interpreted this as a hint at a potential reversal of large capital flows back home, and the yen immediately rebounded from nearly a 40-year low. However, it is premature to expect further strengthening of the yen, as it is too soon to celebrate. The GPIF is overseen not by the Ministry of Finance, but by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, and any changes in strategy will take time and go through a lengthy process, while a fund representative declined to comment. Many market participants believe that the macroeconomic picture has not changed, and that this is more an attempt to soften the effects of the soft policy pursued by the Takahichi administration than a rejection of reflation. Thus, the current surge in the yen could easily be a short-term emotional spike rather than the start of a sustainable trend.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 161.68 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 162.05 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 162.05, I plan to exit my long positions and sell immediately on a retracement, expecting a 30-35 pip move from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 161.41 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to opposing levels of 161.68 and 162.05 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 161.41 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.00, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment with just any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 161.68 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 161.41 and 161.00 is expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3390 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test at 1.3390 aligned with the MACD being in the oversold area, leading to the execution of scenario #2 to buy the pound, resulting in a rise of the pair by 25 pips.

Weak housing market data set the tone for yesterday's trading and weighed on the dollar. US home sales for June came in below expectations, clearly demonstrating how high borrowing costs are cooling demand in the real estate sector. Simultaneously, easing tensions in the Middle East restored risk appetite among investors, further diminishing the need for the safe-haven dollar and pushing capital into more lucrative instruments. The British pound seized the moment and strengthened against the dollar, as the return of risk appetite and the weakening of the American currency played in its favor, supporting demand for more risky assets.

Today's absence of UK macroeconomic reports in the first half of the day will set the direction for the pound. Without fresh figures on inflation, employment, or business activity, traders will have no reason to revise their positions, and these indicators typically guide expectations regarding Bank of England rates and determine the direction of the British currency. When such reports are lacking, the pound becomes dependent on external forces, and the main reference for today will remain the sentiment surrounding the dollar. This is why the current demand for GBP/USD may persist until the end of the European session.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching an entry point around 1.3443 (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.3479 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3479, I plan to exit my long positions and sell immediately on a retracement, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. The pound's growth can be anticipated today as a continuation of the upward trend of recent days. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3419 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposing levels of 1.3443 and 1.3479 is expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after breaking the level of 1.3419 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3385, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3443 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 1.3419 and 1.3385 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1440 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1440 triggered scenario #2 to sell the euro, resulting in a 15-pip decline in the pair.

The return of risk appetite has become the main driver for the euro during Asian trading today. The easing of tensions in the Middle East convinced market participants that the acute phase had passed, prompting a shift from the safe dollar to more lucrative assets. John Williams's speech from the Fed yesterday also did not support the dollar, despite his expressed concern about rising inflation amid investments in artificial intelligence. The market chose to focus on the overall improvement in sentiment and disappointing data.

Today, the euro approaches the end of the week ahead of a dense block of European data that will determine its trajectory. The morning will begin with publications on consumer inflation in Germany and France, and closer to midday, attention will shift to Italy's industrial production and the meeting of the EU finance ministers. Inflation reports are key here, as they will determine how hawkish a line the European Central Bank can maintain, while industrial data will complete the picture of the real sector in the Eurozone. Much will depend on whether the figures can justify the market's optimism. Only this will serve as fuel for the euro's growth in the first half of the day.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1454 (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1485. At 1.1485, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro immediately on a retracement, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. The euro's growth can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1436 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposing levels of 1.1454 and 1.1485 is expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1436 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1397, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if data is poor. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1454, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 1.1436 and 1.1397 is expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

However, all of this is not very significant for the overall bearish market. The current bounce is better viewed as a recovery from a bearish decline rather than a full trend reversal, despite improved demand and historically strong seasonality in July.

July is traditionally one of the most consistently positive months for Bitcoin, and this effect is particularly noticeable in bear market years. In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rose by about 20% and 17% in July, respectively, even though the overall trend remained weak. As Bitcoin entered July 2026 right after hitting a cyclical low, this seasonal pattern shifts short-term risks toward further growth.

Nevertheless, caution is warranted in the overall assessment of market conditions. Many indices and metrics that combine on-chain and market indicators are currently deep in bearish territory, significantly below the levels needed for sustainable growth and a full bull market. This cautious assessment aligns well with a recent conclusion from JPMorgan that the main long-term risk for Bitcoin lies not in one-off sales like those conducted by Strategy but in structural shifts across the entire crypto ecosystem.

Therefore, those who believe a bull market is imminent may soon be disappointed.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $63,900, targeting growth to the level of $64,600. Around $64,600, I plan to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on a retracement. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $63,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward the levels of $63,900 and $64,600.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $63,600, targeting a decline to the level of $63,000. Around $63,000, I plan to exit my sell positions and buy immediately on a retracement. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $63,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward the levels of $63,600 and $63,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,773, targeting growth to the level of $1,789. Around $1,789, I plan to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on a retracement. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,763 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward the levels of $1,773 and $1,789.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,763, targeting a decline to the level of $1,747. Around $1,747, I plan to exit my sell positions and buy immediately on a retracement. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,773 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward the levels of $1,763 and $1,747.

Clearly, the confrontations have put the temporary peace agreement signed last month at risk and have heightened uncertainty regarding the safe passage of energy supplies and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz. The logic for gold remains unchanged and is already well-known. The escalation of hostilities increases the likelihood that the Fed will keep rates high for longer to address the inflationary effects of rising energy costs. The minutes from the Fed's June meeting published this week indicated that some members saw grounds for a rate hike, although the rate was ultimately left unchanged. A tighter monetary policy is traditionally negative for gold, which does not yield interest. A strong dollar can also create significant resistance to rising gold prices.

An additional signal affecting gold was New York Fed President John Williams's statement that he is most concerned about demand driven by artificial intelligence among the factors influencing US inflation. If this pressure persists, he said, it could force the central bank to raise rates. This represents a significant shift in focus. Recently, attention was primarily on energy and tariff pressures, but now one of the Fed's most influential members identifies AI-driven structural demand as the main risk to inflation. All of this is detrimental to gold's upward prospects.

However, there is currently little evidence that investors are opening large short positions in anticipation of further declines, indicating a cautious pause in the market rather than a shift in sentiment towards the bearish side. Structural support from central banks remains an important counterbalance to short-term pressure.

The coming days, particularly the development of technical negotiations between the US and Iran, will determine whether gold can hold above $4,100 or retest the psychological level of $4,000.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at $4,124. This will allow for targeting $4,186, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The furthest target will be at $4,249. If gold declines, bears will attempt to take control of $4,062. If they succeed, a range breakout will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push gold down to a low of $4,008 with the potential to reach $3,954.

Meanwhile, StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson voiced the idea of removing Bitcoin's 21?million supply cap. Ben?Sasson said that every year some network users lose access to their wallets and their coins are effectively lost forever, which reduces the total supply of available "digital gold." He proposed replacing the fixed supply cap with an annual issuance limit of about 4%. Importantly, as early as 2017, the total number of lost coins was estimated at 3–4 million — nearly one-fifth of the total available supply. Ben?Sasson also admits that a time may come when all or most private keys will be lost.

We would like to point out another important issue. How attractive is an asset to which you can lose access at any moment? Imagine a bank card whose PIN you forget and instantly lose all your funds. Who would use bank cards in that case? In our view, this is precisely Bitcoin's main drawback — its decentralization. You are solely responsible for your wallet and your coins, which effectively makes Bitcoin a "safe with money" in your apartment. If you lose the key, you can never get back in. When Bitcoin is soaring, this factor interests investors little. When Bitcoin is not rising (as now), nobody uses it as a payment method if access can be lost at any moment.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a full downtrend. We still expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has essentially already been tested. We do not believe the downtrend will end there. The last bearish FVG was formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area on the daily timeframe, so that zone serves as a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is undergoing another corrective swing, but sell trades remain more attractive.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily timeframe, the downtrend that began in August of last year continues. The key sell pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. We do not think the current downtrend is over, as there are no signs of reversal for either Bitcoin or Ether. Ethereum has resumed its decline with targets at $1,391 and $788, although the market is currently in a flat pause on the daily timeframe. In the near term, we would advise watching for deviations to the upper boundary of the sideways channel to open shorts with targets of $1,680 and $1,505. On the 4?hour timeframe, Ether is sitting near the top of the flat and has taken out sell liquidity. A drop in the second-largest cryptocurrency is possible in the near future.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG is Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG stands for Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated at a regular briefing that one of the government's priorities is to encourage households and pension funds, including the GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund), to increase their investments in Japanese financial assets. He emphasized that authorities intend to pursue policies that support this goal. These remarks caught the markets off guard, and the markets immediately reflected this in the yen's exchange rate.

The reaction was swift and notable. The yen strengthened to 161.40 per dollar, then partially gave back some of its gains, while bonds became more expensive and yields across the curve fell by about 10 basis points. Given that both assets, the yen and Japanese government bonds, have been under significant pressure throughout the week, including the yen's decline to nearly a 40-year low, the impact of Suzuki's words was especially pronounced against an already oversold market.

The key question at the moment is whether this remark was a deliberate signal to the market or a spontaneous response to a journalist's question. Various media reports suggest that the comments regarding the GPIF were indeed prepared in advance; however, it remains unclear if they were intended as a form of verbal currency intervention. A structural detail is important here: the GPIF is supervised by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, not the Ministry of Finance, and any change to its investment strategy must go through an established procedure that takes time. A representative of the fund declined to comment, leaving the question open.

The scale of the potential consequences from such a shift is enormous, as it pertains to one of the world's largest pension funds, with assets of 293.6 trillion yen. Approximately half of its assets are invested abroad, and Japan remains the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds, with a portfolio of $1.2 trillion, while nearly $5 trillion of Japanese capital is held outside the country. Even a partial reallocation toward domestic assets could significantly affect global bond markets far beyond Japan.

The reduction of tensions in the Middle East yesterday restored market risk appetite, and traders have once again flocked to more lucrative assets. As the threat of escalation subsided, demand for the safe-haven dollar weakened, and capital flowed into instruments sensitive to global sentiment. Additionally, weak US housing sales data released the day before put further pressure on the US dollar, indicating cooling demand in a rates-sensitive sector due to high mortgage rates.

The dollar was also unable to find support in the speech by Federal Reserve representative John Williams, who expressed concerns about accelerating inflation due to the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence sector. Despite the overall alarming tone of these remarks, the prevailing risk sentiment and disappointing reports proved stronger. For the euro, the prevailing situation has been a tailwind, and the weakening dollar allowed EUR/USD to gain. The pound also moved in tandem, bolstered by the overall retreat of the US dollar and a return of risk appetite, which helped strengthen its position against the dollar.

Today, the first half of the day promises to be rich in Eurozone reports, starting with the consumer price indices from Germany and France. This data will show how inflation behaves in the bloc's two largest economies, which is important for the euro, as it directly affects expectations for European Central Bank policy. Higher figures strengthen arguments for a hawkish stance from the central bank and support the single currency, while slowing inflation can weaken its position. The morning's agenda will also include data on Italy's industrial production and the meeting of the Eurozone finance ministers, from which the market will look for signals on the consistency of fiscal policy.

To maintain upward momentum at the end of the week, the euro will need a truly strong set of indicators. Only good data on inflation and production will give the single currency reasons to continue rising; otherwise, it risks losing the gains it has made and shifting into a correction.

On the other hand, the UK calendar is once again empty today, and the lack of domestic reports is an important factor for the pound. When there is no domestic data, the national currency loses its independent drivers and begins to move along with the external backdrop, primarily the dynamics of the dollar and the overall appetite for risk. Under such conditions, the existing demand for GBP/USD may persist, as the pair is more likely to hold its gains in the absence of negative domestic news.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to proceed using the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

Buying on a breakout of 1.1459 may lead to the euro rising to around 1.1479 and 1.1501;

Selling on a breakout of 1.1432 may lead to the euro falling to around 1.1414 and 1.1393;

For GBP/USD

Buying on a breakout of 1.3448 may lead to the pound rising to around 1.3481 and 1.3509;

Selling on a breakout of 1.3408 may lead to the pound falling to around 1.3380 and 1.3356;

For USD/JPY

Buying on a breakout of 161.62 may lead to the dollar rising to around 161.83 and 162.08;

Selling on a breakout of 161.35 may lead to the dollar being sold off to around 161.10 and 160.90;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For EUR/USD

Looking for short positions after an unsuccessful breakout beyond 1.1456, returning below this level;

Looking for long positions after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1425, returning to this level;

For GBP/USD

Looking for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout beyond 1.3441, returning below this level;

Looking for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3405, returning to this level;

For AUD/USD

Looking for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout beyond 0.6965, returning below this level;

Looking for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6938, returning to thi

For USD/CAD

Looking for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout beyond 1.4175, returning below this level;

Looking for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4145, returning to this level;

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday. Therefore, traders will once again have nothing to react to. Movements will again be purely technical for both currency pairs. Only geopolitical factors could influence market movements.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Friday, we can note only the speech by European Central Bank Monetary Committee member Boris Vujcic. The ECB's monetary policy stance is currently ambiguous and largely depends on inflation. At the last meeting, the central bank signaled a further rate hike, but inflation in the Eurozone has begun to slow, and its future dynamics will depend on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict in the Middle East. Predicting anything on this topic is impossible.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the US have signed an agreement remotely; however, too many important questions still remain unresolved. Specifically, the "nuclear issue," the war between Lebanon and Israel, and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Theoretically, the market may fear a resumption of full-scale war, but this is clearly insufficient for the dollar to resume rising actively. After all, Tehran and Washington are still on tracks leading to peace, and negotiations are ongoing. However, events from Wednesday demonstrate the fragility of any ceasefires between the US and Iran. Negotiations and the deal could collapse at any moment.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade very sluggishly, as there are no significant events today. Both the euro and the pound may move in either direction. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1420-1.1432, while the pound sterling can be traded from the area of 1.3456-1.3476. We would not expect particularly strong movements or high volatility today.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday and persists in this trend into Friday. Thus, the British pound continues its essentially baseless rise, lacking local reasons. However, this is only the appearance of the situation. The pound sterling is rising completely logically for several reasons. First, the last round of its decline was completely illogical, driven by inertia and speculation. Second, the US dollar has already exhausted all its growth factors by 2026, and its long-term trend remains downward. Third, on the daily and weekly timeframes, the price has begun moving toward the upper boundary after dropping to the lower boundary of the flat channel, which is entirely logical. Therefore, we continue to expect growth for the British currency, at least within the long-term flat channel. Yesterday, there were no interesting events in either the UK or the US.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Thursday. During the Asian trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3380-1.3386 area for the first time, and during the American session, it bounced off it a second time. In the first case, the British pound rose about 30 pips; in the second, it rose 50 pips and has nearly reached the nearest target area of 1.3456-1.3476.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, currently corrective but potentially becoming a full-fledged trend. The conflict in the Middle East is either not fully resolved or is currently on pause; the Federal Reserve has only declared a possible rate hike by the end of the year, which may not happen, and political crises in the UK are no longer crises. We believe the market has already factored in all the growth factors for the US currency.

On Friday, novice traders can open short positions when the price bounces from the 1.3456-1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. If the price consolidates above the area of 1.3456-1.3476, it will allow for new long positions with a target of 1.3587-1.3598.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels to consider now include 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Friday, no important events are scheduled in the UK or the US. Thus, movements today will again be technical.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair showed no interesting movements during trading on Thursday, and there were no significant macroeconomic reports or fundamental or geopolitical events throughout the day. Thus, traders had nothing to react to during the day, which explains the pair's weak movements not only on Thursday but also over the past week. It is worth noting that last Friday was essentially a day off due to Independence Day in the US. From last Friday to today, the pair's daily volatility has not exceeded 40 pips, a minimal value. The only significant events over the past five days have been the ISM Services PMI in the US and the escalation in the Middle East. The ISM index value matched forecasts, while the market has ignored geopolitics for over a month. Thus, there were no reasons for strong movements in the European currency this week. Technically, the upward correction continues.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Thursday. The price bounced twice from the 1.1420-1.1432 area, but due to low volatility, it failed to show significant growth. Overnight, the price bounced from the specified area for the third time, again allowing novice traders to open long positions with the target of 1.1527-1.1531.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, a two-month downward trend persists, and over the past few weeks, we have seen only a weak upward correction. Currently, the descending trend line has been broken, but this has not yet changed anything. It has been broken before, and the euro's growth is extremely weak. Therefore, we tend to believe the downward trend continues, but there is also an upward correction against it.

On Friday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1354-1.1363 if the price consolidates below the 1.1420-1.1432 area. Long positions can be maintained with a target of 1.1527-1.1531, as the price has bounced three times from the 1.1420-1.1432 area.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to be considered are 1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1420-1.1432, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837. On Friday, no significant events or publications are scheduled in the Eurozone or the US. Overnight, the pair showed decent movement, but during the day, we may again expect low volatility.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday without any local reasons or foundations. The British currency has been rising for two and a half weeks now, and all experts are silently observing this movement, not even attempting to explain it. Why is the pound sterling rising this week, given that there have been no news, important events, or significant speeches? If the Fed is taking a hawkish stance compared to the Bank of England, and the UK is engulfed in yet another political crisis, it begs the question.

The last round of declines in the British pound was driven by inertia, technical factors, and speculation. Market makers deliberately pushed the British pound down as far as possible to buy it at more favorable prices—a typical manipulation. Therefore, we always say in our articles: not all market movements are logical or justifiable. The ability to spot illogical movements is a plus for any trader, as it helps understand that the price should move in the opposite direction. If that movement does not occur, it means speculation and manipulation have begun.

On the weekly timeframe, the pound remains in a flat channel, and after falling to its lower region, a movement toward the upper boundary is expected, which we are currently observing.

From a technical standpoint, the British pound remains within an upward trend, clearly indicated by the trend line. The 1.3369-1.3377 area has been breached, allowing the British currency to continue its advance. This week, there have been very few important events, so traders have been trading based on technical analysis, which is exactly what they are doing. We believe that the upward movement, at least within the lateral channel on the daily timeframe, should continue.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, one buy signal was formed, providing traders with excellent profit. At the start of the American trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3369-1.3377 area with minimal deviation, allowing traders to open longs. By Friday morning, the British currency's exchange rate had risen by 50 pips.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has fluctuated in recent years. The red and blue lines, which reflect the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, consistently cross and often near the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, with non-commercial traders continuing to dominate with... sales. Given events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies has been weak in 2026. However, with the war over, there is no longer a reason to buy the dollar, and the pound sterling has not significantly declined in the long term, despite low demand from professional players.

In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the US currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as indicated by the trend line. Just last week, the price interacted with this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated June 30), the "Non-commercial" group closed 3,600 BUY contracts and 7,200 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 3,600 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. In the long term, the pound sterling still has no valid reasons to decline, while the US dollar has none to grow. The market has recently ignored most fundamental, geopolitical, and macroeconomic events, and the pair has begun moving from the lower boundary of the lateral channel to the upper boundary. Therefore, we still expect upward movement.

For July 10, we highlight the following important levels for trading: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3260) and Kijun-sen line (1.3379) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Friday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the UK, and the calendar in the US is also empty. Thus, movements today will again be technical.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may open short positions targeting the area of 1.3369-1.3377 if the pair bounces from the area of 1.3465-1.3480. New long positions can be opened in the case of breaching the area of 1.3465-1.3480, targeting 1.3588.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines around which movement may terminate. They are not sources of trading signals.
• The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines carried over to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extremum levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts indicates the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade with minimal volatility and no clear direction on Thursday. Nevertheless, with difficulty and struggle, the euro maintains its upward trend and northern movement. This week has seen very few important events, which explains the pair's low volatility. However, the British currency also exhibits a notable rise on the same fundamental and macroeconomic grounds. We believe the euro should be moving similarly. On Thursday, there were no significant global events, and geopolitical news was absent. But let's recall that the US dollar rose for two consecutive months, without always having justification. The last rise of the American currency was, in fact, inexplicable. We tend to believe that, for some time, the market traded downward due to inertia. On the daily and weekly timeframes, a flat is maintained, so after a decline to its lower boundary, we expect movement toward the upper boundary.

From a technical standpoint, the upward trend persists, but the euro is still growing extremely weakly. The trend line has been broken (now reconfigured), but the Senkou Span B line has provided support for the euro and maintained the trend. We do not see clear reasons for a new rise in the US dollar, but that does not mean the market does not have the right to buy the American currency.

In the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, two trading signals were formed, but they proved of very little use. The price bounced twice from the area of 1.1424-1.1433, but overall volatility did not exceed 40 pips, so in the correct direction the price moved no more than 20 pips both times.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 30. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish" but has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been getting rid of the euro in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar has acted as a "reserve currency" for some time. However, this process may have already concluded.

We still do not see any fundamental factors for strengthening the euro, while there are sufficient factors for the decline of the American dollar. The war in the Middle East temporarily made the dollar super attractive, but when this factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will revert to normal. And that may have already expired. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Over recent months of dollar growth, the pair has not come too close to this line.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 11,700, while the number of shorts increased by 17,400. Consequently, the net position decreased by 29,100 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, a corrective upward trend continues within a two-month downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, but we do not believe that the latest shelling by Iran and the US, or uncertainty in negotiations and deal prospects, is a sufficiently weighty reason for a further strengthening of the dollar. The market continues to ignore many factors that favor the euro, yet we believe in the euro's growth.

For July 10, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1433, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1399) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1420). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Friday, no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events are scheduled. All we can note is the consumer price index in Germany in its second estimate for June, which is unlikely to interest anyone. Thus, this week has had nothing significant beyond the new escalation in the Middle East and the ISM Services PMI in the US.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions with targets of 1.1399 and 1.1362 if the price consolidates below the trend line. Long positions can be maintained with targets of 1.1536-1.1542 after two bounces from the area of 1.1420-1.1433. Volatility remains weak.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines around which movement may terminate. They are not sources of trading signals.
• The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines carried over to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extremum levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts indicates the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The GBP/USD currency pair rose again on Thursday, despite no grounds for the move. Interestingly, during the period when the pound was falling every day, nearly all experts were proclaiming a political crisis, a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, the weakness of the British economy, and uncertain economic prospects. Now, however, everyone is silent. The pound has been rising for two weeks, rising 270 pips and completely offsetting the previous wave of decline. Yet, for some reason, no one discusses why the pound is rising when, just recently, everyone was predicting its fall.

We mentioned two weeks ago that there were no grounds for the US dollar to grow. The idea that the Fed will raise the key interest rate once or twice by the end of the year is merely speculation. Let's remember that in March, the same dot plot indicated a loosening of monetary policy by the end of the year. Thus, the dot plot could shift again by September, and the market may rush to adjust expectations that may well not materialize. Currently, the market bases its assumptions on US inflation, which has risen from 2.4% to 4.2% over the last three months. However, this inflation level could be entirely different by September. Oil prices have decreased, and unless Donald Trump seriously intends to renew the war with Iran, they are unlikely to rise above $100 per barrel again. Consequently, price pressures are expected to ease. If, in September, the Fed sees inflation at 3%, what would be the point in raising the key rate?

Moreover, the US labor market has started to face problems again. In the second half of last year, the labor market was the main reason for a 0.75% rate cut. Therefore, it would be unwise to believe that the labor market does not matter now. It certainly does. If it is shrinking and convulsing, the Fed will think twice before making a "hawkish" decision. Kevin Warsh may openly promise the market to raise rates or to reduce inflation by any means possible. However, one call from the White House could reverse the Fed chairman's opinion. Of course, decisions are not made solely by Warsh, but he does have some influence over other FOMC members.

On the weekly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has been trading in a flat for nearly a year. Since there are no foundations (other than geopolitical ones) for the US dollar to rise under Donald Trump, we expect the flat to end and the upward trend that began in 2022 to resume. In the coming weeks, we anticipate a rise to at least the level of 1.3650, as the British pound recently dropped to the lower part of the weekly flat channel. Therefore, we are looking forward to movement towards the upper boundary of the channel.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days, as of July 10, is 62 pips, which is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move within the range limited by levels 1.3340 and 1.3464 on Friday. The upper channel of linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice and formed two bullish divergences, suggesting a potential end to the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3367

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3245

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3489

R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend, presumed to be a correction within the larger upward trend on daily or weekly timeframes. The overall fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitical tensions followed by the Fed's willingness to raise the key interest rate have provided substantial support for the American currency. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1353 and 1.1292. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3464. Bears are currently exceptionally strong for no visible reason.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted;
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel within which the pair will move in the coming day, based on current volatility statistics;
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair once again failed to impress with its movements on Thursday. The illustration below clearly shows that since last Friday, the pair has struggled to move more than 40 pips in a day. What further confirmation is needed to demonstrate that the market is ignoring incoming news? It should be noted that there have been very few important events this week. Among the economic releases, the ISM Services PMI for the US might be highlighted; however, the index matched expectations, so there was no reaction. The Federal Reserve minutes is always a formal event that simply cannot surprise traders. Geopolitics? The market has long ignored it as it has grown weary of the "swings" between Donald Trump and Iran.

In principle, we won't even analyze all the geopolitical events from this week. Iran has struck American military bases, the US has retaliated, and the Strait of Hormuz continues to be in a state of confusion—it seems open, but a missile could strike your vessel at any moment if you deviate from the course or fail to coordinate passage with Tehran. The strait cannot be called safe and free. Donald Trump continues to threaten Iran with further strikes and the destruction of all infrastructure, pretending to be the most invested in the current situation regarding the deal with Tehran. Tehran, knowing the ball is in its court, continues to manipulate the United States, throwing tantrums like a little girl, seeking the best possible terms for the agreement. But as soon as Trump sees new demands from Tehran, he promptly orders its destruction. A couple of days later, "Qatari representatives" convince the American president of the need to continue negotiations, and everything starts over. The market is no longer responding to this "Santa Barbara".

Thus, there is essentially nothing to analyze this week. There were no important events, no market movements, and no volatility. The only option left is to revisit higher timeframes and attempt to understand the global technical picture. The weekly timeframe shows that since 2022, the EUR/USD pair has been in an upward trend, with no signs of its completion. Notably, in 2022, the euro rose sharply by 1,500 points, then remained flat for over a year, followed by a pullback and a new surge of 1,500 points upward. Now, we have been observing a flat for a year, and the latest rise of the US dollar raises many unanswered questions. We consider it completely illogical. A new upward trend, in our opinion, will be entirely justified. Therefore, despite the recent decline in the pair over the past two months, we still expect only long-term growth for the euro. The lower the euro drops now, the stronger it will rise later.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last 5 trading days, as of July 10, is 39 pips, which is considered "low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1399 and 1.1477 on Friday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating the continuation of the downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and has formed two "bullish" divergences, which warn of a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1414

S2 – 1.1353

S3 – 1.1292

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1475

R2 – 1.1536

R3 – 1.1597

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains a downward trend, which is presumably a correction within a broader upward trend, as seen on daily or weekly timeframes. The overall fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitical tensions followed by the Fed's hawkish stance have provided substantial support to the US currency. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1353 and 1.1292. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1475 and 1.1536. Bears are currently exceptionally strong for no visible reason.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted;
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel within which the pair will move in the coming day, based on current volatility statistics;
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

In the lead-up to the June meeting, investors gradually priced in a tighter trajectory for Fed monetary policy, especially following the release of strong May data on CPP and PPI growth. The results of the meeting largely met (and even exceeded) these expectations: the updated dot plot turned out to be more hawkish, allowing for one round of rate hikes in the second half of the year, and the rhetoric of new Chairman Kevin Warsh was perceived by the market as tougher compared to Jerome Powell's statements in previous meetings. As a result, many expected the minutes of the June meeting to show broad support for an imminent rate hike or at least demonstrate the formation of a corresponding consensus within the Committee. However, this did not happen.

The key message of the June meeting, reflected in the minutes, is that the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode rather than preparing for monetary tightening in the coming months.

On the one hand, several participants did indeed state that there were arguments for a rate hike as early as June.

On the other hand, the wording "a few" turned out to be significantly softer than market expectations, which had anticipated a much larger camp of supporters for tightening monetary policy. Moreover, many of the meeting participants emphasized the need to obtain additional data before any further decisions. As is known, the text of the minutes is meticulously checked—essentially, every word carries weight, not to mention entire phrases that change the meaning of the whole document. Therefore, such "not sufficiently hawkish" messages did not meet the inflated expectations of many market participants.

Another important point is that Committee members emphasized the high uncertainty regarding inflation prospects. In particular, the minutes repeatedly underscore that the effects of trade policy, geopolitical tensions, and other factors influencing price dynamics "cannot yet be assessed with sufficient certainty." In this context, the Fed made it clear that it intends to maintain flexibility and remain guided by incoming macroeconomic data.

In other words, the central bank did not provide the market with any clear signals that a rate hike at upcoming meetings is a baseline or likely scenario.

Markets reacted to the release accordingly: Treasury yields changed only slightly, and the dollar index even came under pressure. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair not only remained within the 14th figure but also tested (though unsuccessfully; the fact itself is important) the resistance level of 1.1450, which corresponds to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe.

Analyzing the June Fed minutes, it is also important to note another significant point. The June meeting chaired by Warsh clearly demonstrated a shift in the Fed's "communication philosophy."

Firstly, the style of communication has changed significantly. The minutes of the June meeting was noticeably more concise than the minutes from recent years of the "Powell era." It contained fewer detailed discussions, less attempt to explain the reasoning behind each scenario, and significantly fewer elements of "forward guidance," which refers to direct/translucent indicators regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy. All this aligns with Warsh's approach, which prefers not to predefine market expectations, leaving the Fed maximum freedom of action.

Secondly, under Warsh's leadership, the focus of discussions has shifted. While under Powell, a significant portion of the minutes was dedicated to the risks of economic slowdown and the state of the labor market, the June document placed primary emphasis on inflationary threats and the danger of entrenched high inflation expectations. Even this emphasis did not "transform" into an immediate readiness to hike rates—rather, it reflects a so-called "heightened vigilance."

Thus, the Fed minutes turned out to be more "moderately hawkish" than truly hawkish. The minutes reflected the Committee members' concern about inflation persistence and did not, in theory, rule out policy tightening. However, the document did not demonstrate broad consensus for an imminent rate increase. Against a backdrop of inflated market expectations, this outcome disappointed dollar bulls: the published minutes were not an ally for the greenback.

Therefore, if EUR/USD buyers continue to show resilience against the geopolitical backdrop, any downward corrections in the pair should be viewed as opportunities to open long positions. In this context, the "ceiling" of the established price range stands at the 1.1450 mark, which corresponds to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.