EUR/USD has risen for six consecutive trading days. Initially, the move appeared to be a standard corrective pullback that would likely end within Bearish Imbalance 16. However, after six days of gains, it can be said that buyers now have a strong opportunity to regain the initiative and resume the broader bullish trend.

I would like to remind readers that over the past several months I have consistently maintained that the bullish trend has not ended. It has merely been paused due to the complex geopolitical environment. A closer look at recent price action supports this view. Last Tuesday and Wednesday, the pair rebounded twice from Bearish Imbalance 16, which could reasonably have been interpreted as a sell signal. Everything appeared logical and technically justified. However, on Thursday the pair posted a strong advance, paused briefly on Friday, and resumed its upward movement on Monday.

Why did this happen? Because on Thursday Donald Trump unexpectedly changed his stance toward Iran and once again stated that a deal could be reached over the weekend. On Monday, this information was confirmed not only by Trump, but also by Iran and Pakistan. Although the agreement has not yet been formally signed, confirmation from all three parties involved in the negotiations significantly increases the probability of a successful outcome. At this stage, market participants appear far more focused on the likelihood of a deal than on what may follow afterward.

Bearish Imbalance 16 is now close to being invalidated, which would represent the first signal that the bullish trend is resuming.

In the near term, both price action and market sentiment will continue to depend heavily on geopolitical developments. If Tehran and Washington ultimately sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire, lift restrictions, and make progress on the nuclear issue, sellers may be forced to retreat, while the euro and the pound could resume their upward trajectories.

For now, however, traders remain cautious and are waiting for the agreement to be formally ratified, which may take place in Switzerland on Friday.

At present, there are simply no actionable trading patterns available. If Bearish Imbalance 16 is invalidated, it would indicate that the bearish impulse has been broken. In that case, traders should wait for new bullish patterns to emerge and trade accordingly. A bullish imbalance may form this week, potentially providing future buying opportunities.

Once again, it is worth noting that nearly all of the U.S. dollar's strength between January and March was driven by geopolitical factors. As soon as the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, sellers quickly retreated, while buyers dominated trading activity for more than a month.

At present, the probability of a formal agreement remains relatively high. Nevertheless, the market remains skeptical of any reports suggesting that the conflict is nearing a final resolution. As a result, the euro is moving higher, but the pace of gains remains measured and cautious.

The economic backdrop on Monday clearly did not support buyers, as the only notable report—the industrial production data from the European Union—came in below market expectations. Industrial output increased by only 0.1% in April compared with March. Therefore, today's rise in the euro can be attributed primarily to growing market optimism regarding the prospect of peace in the Middle East.

There remain numerous reasons for buyers to stay active throughout 2026, and the conflict in the Middle East has not materially changed that outlook. From both a structural and long-term perspective, the policies that contributed to the dollar's significant decline last year remain unchanged. In the coming months, the U.S. dollar may occasionally strengthen as investors seek safe-haven assets, but this factor would require a sustained escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

I still do not believe in the emergence of a long-term bearish trend in EUR/USD. The dollar has received temporary support from geopolitical developments, but it remains unclear what could provide sellers with a durable advantage over the longer term.

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 16 contains three scheduled releases, none of which are considered particularly significant. Therefore, the impact of economic data on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal or nonexistent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop changed sharply three months ago, but the broader trend cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete.

Therefore, buyers may be able to resume their advance in the near future if geopolitical developments continue to provide support.

At present, traders should focus on the emergence of new trading patterns, preferably bullish ones. I expect such a pattern to form this week. It is also critically important that the agreement between Iran and the United States does not collapse. Otherwise, sellers could regain control of the market, and the developing bullish structure could be prematurely invalidated—just as the bearish setup was last week.

GBP/USD continues to move higher and has a strong chance this week of invalidating Bearish Imbalance 20 while potentially forming a new bullish imbalance. Without question, the current geopolitical backdrop is supporting buyers. However, it should be noted that the pound's advance remains unconvincing and could even evolve into a range-bound market. In fact, sterling has been trading within a horizontal channel between 1.3305 and 1.3505 for several weeks.

The upward movement remains weak, the bearish pattern has failed to deliver, and no bullish patterns have formed. If an agreement between Iran and the United States is signed before the end of the week, buyers will find it much easier to maintain upward pressure. If not, no meaningful bullish advance is likely to emerge. Under current conditions, traders can only wait for new patterns to form, as there are currently no actionable setups available. It is also important to closely monitor geopolitical developments, as any new pattern can be invalidated almost instantly by breaking news.

Last week provided a clear example. Sellers were preparing for another decline from Bearish Imbalance 20, but Donald Trump unexpectedly announced the prospect of a peace agreement with Iran over the weekend instead of the previously anticipated military strikes. As a result, sellers quickly retreated despite the presence of Bearish Imbalance 20.

The situation in the Middle East has begun to improve. Historically, the U.S. dollar performs better during periods of geopolitical tension than either the euro or the pound. Therefore, if the conflict in the Middle East moves toward resolution, both the euro and the pound could receive additional support. At present, however, the market remains cautious regarding reports of a potential agreement. For example, Israel indicated on Monday that its interests had not been fully taken into account, which could potentially lead to renewed tensions in the region. If that occurs, the efforts made by both the United States and Iran could prove unsuccessful.

In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's sharp declines earlier this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East remains in place and could be extended. The Strait of Hormuz remains subject to restrictions, while the nuclear issue remains unresolved. The situation continues to shift between improvement and deterioration. As a result, market participants are increasingly uncertain about which developments to trust.

From a technical perspective, all currently available and valid patterns have either been completed, invalidated, or are likely to become invalidated in the near future. I continue to expect another bullish impulse, but this will require the successful signing of an agreement between Iran and the United States. Therefore, traders should wait both for a positive resolution of developments in the Middle East and for the formation of new trading patterns.

The economic calendar had virtually no impact on Monday. In the United States, the May industrial production report was released, but it attracted little interest from traders. The pound started the day with a solid advance, but by midday buyers had become more cautious and momentum faded. Economic data had no meaningful impact on market sentiment during Monday's session. This week will feature numerous important events, requiring traders to closely monitor market developments.

The broader fundamental backdrop remains such that, from a long-term perspective, I continue to expect weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict involving Iran does little to change that view. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the overall outlook for the U.S. currency remains less favorable.

If the U.S. economy gains momentum in 2026, the Federal Reserve resumes its monetary tightening cycle, and tensions involving Iran evolve into a prolonged conflict, then the dollar could realistically target the 1.3100–1.3000 level against the pound. However, in my opinion, the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar could not have changed solely because of one strong Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Federal Reserve has not yet provided any signals indicating a willingness to tighten monetary policy further.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 16 contains only one event that I do not consider significant. Therefore, the impact of economic data on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be absent or extremely limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish, while all bearish patterns have either been invalidated or are no longer relevant. Therefore, traders should focus on the emergence of new patterns, which will provide clearer guidance regarding the next directional move.

At the same time, geopolitical developments remain capable of driving the pound in either direction, and the conflict in the Middle East has not been fully resolved. As a result, opening long positions without clear trading signals remains premature. If an agreement is ultimately signed, the pound has every chance of advancing toward at least the 1.3655 level.

Gold (XAU/USD) has corrected to the $4,350 level, posting a 2.86% gain over the past 24 hours and extending the recovery that began last Thursday from the $4,024 level. The precious metal is trading at its highest level in a week as investors reassess the implications of the recently announced agreement between the United States and Iran.

Financial markets reacted positively to reports that Washington and Tehran had reached a preliminary agreement aimed at ending the conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened under the terms of the agreement. This information was also confirmed by Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister. According to various reports, the ceasefire that has been in effect since April is expected to be extended, allowing both sides to continue negotiations.

The announcement significantly improved market sentiment. U.S. stock index futures are rising by 1–2%, while oil prices have declined notably as investors anticipate a gradual normalization of global energy flows following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen by approximately 0.3%, trading near 99.48 after opening the week with a bearish gap.

Dollar weakness is providing additional support for gold, making it more attractive to investors using other currencies.

Investors should also pay attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for later this week. Ahead of the event, traders should closely monitor the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and U.S. industrial production data. Any signals regarding the health of the U.S. economy or potential changes in interest rates could influence gold prices in the coming days.

Despite the improvement in the geopolitical situation, some factors continue to warrant caution. Lebanese media outlets are still reporting Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon following the announcement of the agreement, while the full text of the deal has not yet been released. This uncertainty continues to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset among investors seeking protection from geopolitical risks.

From a technical perspective, gold is approaching the 200-day EMA, which is expected to provide the first resistance level. However, the primary resistance for buyers remains the 100-day SMA. A break above this level would improve the bullish outlook and increase the likelihood of further gains. For now, however, oscillators remain in negative territory, giving sellers the advantage. Nevertheless, gold is finding support around the $4,260 level. A break below this support could open the way for a decline toward the June low.

Crude oil is trading around $79.23, reaching a low last seen in March 2016. Therefore, we could expect a recovery in the coming days, potentially reaching the $84 price level and even the psychological level of $90.

If the downward pressure on crude oil persists, we could expect it to reach the lower band of the descending trend channel around $76.50 and even the Murray 6/8 support level around $75.

Technically, crude oil has reached oversold levels, as we can see on the technical chart that the Eagle indicator has reached five points. This suggests a possibility that crude oil could rebound and reach the resistance level of $87.50 around the Murray 7/8 level in the short term.

We should expect consolidation above $79. Then, we could look for a buy signal targeting the gap left around $82.60 last Friday. If the bullish momentum prevails, the next target will be the 21-period SMA around $84.91, and finally, the 87.50 level around the 7/8 of Murray's retracement level.

Crude oil left another gap around $95.90. This could mean that crude oil could return to this area in the medium term. Technically, if the price breaks above the upper band of the descending trend channel and consolidates above the psychological level of $90.00, we could expect it to reach $96 and cover the gap, and could even reach the psychological level of $100.

Our outlook is positive for crude oil, but we should wait for confirmation that the price consolidates above $79 before opening long positions.

Since Friday's close and this week's opening, gold has extended its upward trend, leaving a gap and approaching strong resistance levels. As a result, it is likely to continue rising in the coming hours until it reaches $4,368—which corresponds to the price level seen on June 9—and could eventually reach the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375, which in turn coincides with the upper band of the uptrend channel, and this zone represents strong resistance

Gold has left a gap, so we believe that it could pull back to the $4,220 level or even down to the 21 SMA at $4,193 in the coming days. This presents an opportunity to sell gold below the 6/8 Murray level, as a strong technical reversal could occur in the coming hours.

A decisive break and consolidation above the 6/8 Murray level could lead to a final bullish attempt, potentially reaching the 200 EMA around $4,469; however, this zone could be seen as a decisive point to sell gold in the coming days.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell gold below $4,375, with targets at $4,304, $4,280, $4,220, and $4,193. The Eagle indicator is reaching overbought levels, so a pullback in gold is likely in the coming hours.

Bitcoin is trading around $66,747, having reached the upper band of the uptrend channel formed since July 5. The price may struggle to continue rising, as a technical correction could occur in the coming hours.

Given that Bitcoin has reached overbought levels, as seen on the H4 chart—where the Eagle indicator has hit 95 points—this suggests a potential technical reversal in the coming hours toward the 1/8 Murray zone. BTC could even retreat to the 0/8 Murray zone around $62,500.

In case of a technical correction, we should monitor to ensure the price does not exceed $67,000. Below this zone, we could look for opportunities to sell in the coming days until the price reaches the lower band of the uptrend channel around $63,000.

Given that the likelihood of a technical correction is higher than the probability of Bitcoin continuing to rise in the coming hours, we should exercise caution and only look for a clear signal to open short positions. Our entry target is a price trading below the lower band of the uptrend channel.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading around $1,814 with a bullish bias extending a rebound over the weekend above $1,650.

Ethereum could continue its rise over the coming hours, reaching the upper band of the uptrend channel around $1,860.

Following a consolidation above the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a recovery above the 1/8 Murray line, ETH gained bullish momentum. Over the past 24 hours, we saw a strong technical rebound, so the instrument is likely to resume its main downtrend in the coming days.

If ETH reaches the upper band of the uptrend channel around $1,860, or if bullish momentum prevails, ETH could reach the 200 EMA around $1,891 and the 3/8 Murray level around $1,875. If Ethereum approaches these levels, we could expect a strong technical correction to occur in this zone and a return to the 2/8 Murray levels around $1,750.

In case Ethereum loses its upward momentum from the $1,814 level, we could expect a technical correction toward the 2/8 Murray level at $1,750. Therefore, we could look for selling opportunities in the coming hours with targets at $1,750 and around the 21 SMA at $1,690.

The recovery in ETH/USD could encourage bears to take short positions, and we expect the price to return to the psychological level of $1,500 in the coming weeks.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels. So, below $1,814, the market will likely undergo a technical correction in the coming days.

The test of the 160.15 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move higher from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. However, the pair failed to generate any significant upward movement.

It is clear that traders are waiting for further news regarding a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, as well as details of the deal, which could help reduce demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset. Under these conditions, market participants are reluctant to buy USD/JPY aggressively—especially at current highs above 160.00, a zone where the Bank of Japan has frequently demonstrated a willingness to intervene.

Later in the day, several important economic reports are scheduled for release and could have a significant impact on the pair. Data on changes in U.S. industrial production will be an important driver for the dollar. Industrial production is a fundamental component of overall economic growth, and fluctuations in this indicator can serve as an early signal of broader economic trends. Market participants should also pay close attention to manufacturing output data. This sector accounts for a substantial share of GDP and often serves as a key engine of economic growth. Analysis of these figures will help form a more comprehensive view of the current state of the U.S. economy and outline possible prospects for its future development.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 160.20 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 160.50 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 160.50, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from that level. Further gains in the pair can be expected today if U.S. economic data come in stronger than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 160.01 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 160.20 and 160.50 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 160.01 level (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.70, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair could return today in the event of central bank intervention.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 160.20 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 160.01 and 159.70 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is often best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.3429 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential.

The absence of significant macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom during the first half of the trading session created a kind of vacuum that, as often happens, markets tend to fill with technical movements. The British pound lacked fundamental support, which acted as a catalyst for a downward correction.

During the second half of the day, the Empire State Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release. Compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, it serves as a measure of business activity in the state's manufacturing sector. Analysis of this indicator's performance, as well as any deviations from forecasts or previous readings, may influence the U.S. dollar.

Market participants will then closely examine U.S. industrial production data. An acceleration or slowdown in growth within this sector will serve as an indicator of the strength—or weakness—of the U.S. economy, which will be reflected in dollar valuations.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3435 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3471 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3471, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from that level. Further gains in the pound can be expected today only if U.S. data come in weaker than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3415 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3435 and 1.3471 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3415 level (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3381, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pound is likely to return today if U.S. data come in significantly stronger than expected.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3435 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3415 and 1.3381 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is often best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1598 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Weak eurozone data, particularly the trade balance deficit and stagnant industrial production, are putting the ECB in a difficult position and weighing on the euro in the short term. On the one hand, inflation remains a concern, with ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledging the presence of second-round effects. This supports the case for further interest rate hikes to cool demand and stabilize prices. On the other hand, persistent weakness in the real economy could be exacerbated by tighter monetary policy. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses, potentially leading to lower investment and slower economic growth. This creates a risk of recession, which the ECB will likely seek to avoid.

During the second half of the day, several important macroeconomic releases are expected that could significantly affect market sentiment and, consequently, currency market dynamics. The first key release will be the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, this indicator measures business activity in New York State's manufacturing sector, but its movements often provide insight into broader trends in U.S. industry. The index's performance, particularly deviations from forecasts or previous readings, will help determine whether the manufacturing sector is maintaining growth momentum or beginning to slow.

The market will then closely monitor U.S. industrial production data. An acceleration or slowdown in industrial output growth will serve as an indicator of the overall strength or weakness of the economy. Finally, particular attention will be paid to manufacturing output data. Signals of growth or contraction in this sector may directly affect expectations regarding corporate earnings and the overall health of the U.S. economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro can be considered once the price reaches 1.1622 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1663. At 1.1663, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further gains in the euro are likely only if U.S. data come in weaker than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1598 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a move toward the opposite levels of 1.1622 and 1.1663 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1598 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1560, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if U.S. economic data prove strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1622 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1598 and 1.1560 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is often best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Economic data from the eurozone for the current period were disappointing, although the euro reacted with only a modest decline. In April, the trade balance recorded a deficit of €1 billion, a sharp contrast to the €8.7 billion surplus reported a year earlier. The manufacturing sector posted only a marginal monthly increase of 0.2%, falling short of the forecast of 0.3%. This marks the seventh consecutive month in which the economy has failed to demonstrate sustained growth in this area.

During the second half of the day, several important economic releases are expected that could have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar. The primary focus will be on the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, this indicator reflects conditions in New York State's manufacturing sector and serves as one of the earliest gauges of business activity in the United States. Readings above zero generally indicate expansion, while readings below zero point to contraction.

At the same time, data on industrial production will be released. This indicator covers all major industrial sectors, including mining, manufacturing, and utilities. Industrial production is a key component of overall economic growth, and changes in the indicator may signal broader economic trends.

Particular attention will also be paid to manufacturing output data. This sector remains one of the most significant components of GDP and often acts as a key driver of economic growth. Analysis of these figures will help provide a more complete picture of the current state of the U.S. economy and assist in forecasting the future direction of the dollar.

In the event of strong economic data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little or no reaction to the releases, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1625 may lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1645 and 1.1664;
• A breakout below 1.1595 may lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1566 and 1.1535;

For GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3440 may lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3460 and 1.3490;
• A breakout below 1.3415 may lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3380 and 1.3360;

For USD/JPY

• A breakout above 160.25 may lead to gains in the U.S. dollar toward 160.43 and 160.67;
• A breakout below 160.00 may trigger selling pressure on the dollar toward 159.80 and 159.60;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Fade Trade) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.1628 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.1585 followed by a return above this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3451 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3405 followed by a return above this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 0.7089 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 0.7063 followed by a return above this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3990 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3953 followed by a return above this level.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The new week begins with favorable news. It emerged that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time the SpaceX IPO proceeded smoothly: shares closed on Friday at $160.95, up 19% from the offering price. The company's market capitalization on the first day of trading was about $2.2 trillion—placing it sixth among the largest public companies in the world.

SpaceX opened at $150, at one point rose more than 30%, and then partially retraced. More than 522 million shares changed hands during the day — comparable with the $75 billion size of the offering. The market absorbed the largest IPO in history without visible strain, which is an important signal in its own right. For Anthropic and OpenAI, which may come to market this year with valuations of roughly $1 trillion each, a successful SpaceX debut clears a path. A flop, by contrast, would have chilled the entire AI-IPO pipeline for months.

Nevertheless, some investors prefer to wait. Index fund holders will soon receive a stake in SpaceX through inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 and can therefore afford to await a correction and enter on the secondary market at a discount. The history of mega-IPOs offers no comfort: according to Truist Wealth, the average drawdown after a debut is 55% within a year. Cerebras Systems — the second-largest IPO of the year — rose 68 percent on its first day but has since fallen more than 30 percent.

This week will host the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh and his first post-meeting press conference. Rates are expected to remain unchanged by consensus, but markets will dissect every word from the new chair under a microscope. President Trump has repeatedly signaled he wants aggressive rate cuts, and a peace agreement with Iran strengthens that case: oil prices should fall, inflation should moderate, and pressure on the Fed would increase. How Warsh will balance the Fed's independence against political expectations is the key question for Wednesday.

A technical outlook for the S&P 500 suggests that the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome resistance at $7,547. Doing so would demonstrate upside momentum and open the way to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,607 will further strengthen the buyers' position. If risk appetite falls and the market moves lower, buyers must defend the $7,518 area; a break below that level will quickly push the index back to $7,494 and open the path to $7,474.

The new week begins with favorable news. It emerged that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time the SpaceX IPO proceeded smoothly: shares closed on Friday at $160.95, up 19% from the offering price. The company's market capitalization on the first day of trading was about $2.2 trillion—placing it sixth among the largest public companies in the world.

SpaceX opened at $150, at one point rose more than 30%, and then partially retraced. More than 522 million shares changed hands during the day — comparable with the $75 billion size of the offering. The market absorbed the largest IPO in history without visible strain, which is an important signal in its own right. For Anthropic and OpenAI, which may come to market this year with valuations of roughly $1 trillion each, a successful SpaceX debut clears a path. A flop, by contrast, would have chilled the entire AI-IPO pipeline for months.

Nevertheless, some investors prefer to wait. Index fund holders will soon receive a stake in SpaceX through inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 and can therefore afford to await a correction and enter on the secondary market at a discount. The history of mega-IPOs offers no comfort: according to Truist Wealth, the average drawdown after a debut is 55% within a year. Cerebras Systems — the second-largest IPO of the year — rose 68 percent on its first day but has since fallen more than 30 percent.

This week will host the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh and his first post-meeting press conference. Rates are expected to remain unchanged by consensus, but markets will dissect every word from the new chair under a microscope. President Trump has repeatedly signaled he wants aggressive rate cuts, and a peace agreement with Iran strengthens that case: oil prices should fall, inflation should moderate, and pressure on the Fed would increase. How Warsh will balance the Fed's independence against political expectations is the key question for Wednesday.

A technical outlook for the S&P 500 suggests that the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome resistance at $7,547. Doing so would demonstrate upside momentum and open the way to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,607 will further strengthen the buyers' position. If risk appetite falls and the market moves lower, buyers must defend the $7,518 area; a break below that level will quickly push the index back to $7,494 and open the path to $7,474.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The latest completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave exceeded the previous peak. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bullish. Geopolitical developments improved significantly over the weekend after Donald Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Iran, while both Iran and Pakistan confirmed this information. As a result, the conflict may be resolved in the near future, providing an opportunity for buyers to launch a stronger advance.

There were few important events on Friday, which was clearly reflected in trading activity. Several reports released in Germany and the United States had no noticeable impact on market sentiment. The most noteworthy developments occurred over the weekend. On Saturday, it was reported that Iran had once again refused to finalize an agreement with the United States, citing insufficient time to review all provisions of the deal. However, on Sunday, Donald Trump stated that an agreement had been reached, and on Monday morning this information was confirmed by Iran and Pakistan, which acted as a mediator during the negotiations.

At present, the agreement has not yet been formally signed. The signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday and is expected to take place in Geneva. This assumes that neither side escalates the conflict again before Friday or withdraws from the agreement at the last moment, which also cannot be ruled out. Until then, however, market sentiment is likely to remain positive. Oil prices are declining, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and risk-sensitive assets and currencies are gaining. If the agreement remains on track, Monday's market trend is likely to continue throughout the week.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and began moving higher within a downward trend channel toward its upper boundary. A rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.1667 would keep the pair inside the descending channel. Consolidation above the channel would allow traders to expect the formation of a full-fledged bullish trend, with initial targets at 1.1746 and 1.1824. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 15,878 Long positions and opened 19,056 Short positions. During the seven-week period in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war involving Iran. Over the past eleven weeks, however, the situation has gradually stabilized amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East, and buyers have once again regained control. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 219,000, compared with 205,000 Short positions.

From a longer-term perspective, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Naturally, a wide range of global developments—none of which have been in short supply in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has only been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, movements in the euro and the dollar will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, or on economic data, and more on developments in Iran.

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Industrial Production (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Industrial Production (13:15 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 15 contains two releases, neither of which is considered particularly significant. Therefore, the impact of economic data on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be very limited or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.1630 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1578. Long positions could be opened following a rebound from 1.1514 with a target at 1.1578, or after consolidation above 1.1578 with a target at 1.1630. These positions may continue to be held today. New purchases are made when closing above the level of 1.1630 with a target of 1.1682.

The Fibonacci level grids are based on 1.1409 – 1.1850 on the hourly chart and 1.2081 – 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure has turned bullish, as the market has started to believe in a deal between Iran and the United States. The latest completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave exceeded the previous peak. If an agreement is signed by the end of the week and neither side violates the ceasefire or withdraws from negotiations, the bulls will be able to continue their advance.

The news background was not supportive of the pound on Friday. The United Kingdom released two reports, which were the only major economic releases last week. GDP contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while industrial production showed zero growth. Therefore, neither report provided support for the bulls. Nor did they support the bears. Over the weekend, optimistic news emerged regarding the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, but bulls are not rushing into the market, as they have been disappointed many times before by Donald Trump's promising statements. When the agreement is signed, then there will be reason to celebrate. Given recent developments, bulls are currently in a more favorable position, but their advantage is just as fragile as the agreements between Iran and the United States.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3327 and advanced toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward 1.3327. Consolidation above 1.3429 would increase the likelihood of further gains in the pound. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,944, while the number of Short positions increased by 4,051. The gap between Long and Short positions now stands at approximately 46,000 versus 109,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bearish advantage is currently more than twofold.

I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the expectation of a prolonged conflict, but the latest news suggests that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although it is unlikely to be easy or quick.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Industrial Production (13:15 UTC).

June 15 contains only one economic event, which I do not consider significant. Therefore, the impact of the economic calendar on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be minimal.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. Long positions were possible after a close above 1.3408, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 level. This target has been reached. New long positions may be considered after consolidation above the 1.3454–1.3466 level, with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

Over the past weekend, Trump announced on social media that he would sanction the free opening of the strait — the signing ceremony is expected to take place on Friday in Switzerland, with Vice President Vance in attendance.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Garibabadi confirmed that an agreement has been reached; however, the text of the document will be published only after it is signed. The framework agreement extends the ceasefire for 60 days and lays the groundwork for negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program. Trump warned immediately that if no agreements are reached on the nuclear issue, military actions could resume.

The market's reaction was swift, but traders have adopted a cautious position. The opening of the strait is not an instant switch. First, mine clearance is necessary. Second, insurance companies may maintain high rates even after the formal opening. Third, restoring production at oil fields in the Persian Gulf that were halted during the conflict will take months due to technical and geological issues and infrastructure damage. Strategic and commercial oil reserves, which have been reduced at record rates, will also require recovery, creating additional demand that partially offsets the increase in supply.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $81.40. This will set the stage for targeting $86.67, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $92.54 area. If oil prices fall, bears will attempt to take control at $74.85. If they succeed, breaking this range will deliver a significant blow to the bulls' positions and drive Oil down to a low of $67.77, with the potential to reach $59.90.

Despite this, there have been significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs since early May — and according to Farside, the situation remains troubling even after the first positive day in a long time. Last Friday, ETFs finally showed inflows, ending a streak of 18 consecutive outflows, but it is too early to draw conclusions about a reversal: the premium on Coinbase remains deeply negative, indicating continued selling pressure. This means that American institutions continue to sell more than they buy—a pattern that has traditionally set the tone for the entire market. One day of inflow amid persistently negative premiums is more of a technical pause than a trend change.

An explanation increasingly heard is that the outflows are not due to disappointment in cryptocurrency per se, but to a capital rotation into massive IPOs. The market is gearing up for the launches by Anthropic and OpenAI—companies that embody the artificial intelligence boom. The logic of investors is straightforward: why hold volatile Bitcoin without cash flow when there are upcoming offerings from leaders of the AI revolution with real products and revenue? This echoes the thesis of Michael Saylor himself, who explained that pressure on Bitcoin is due to about $400 billion flowing into the AI sector over six months.

Thus, the balance of positivity and negativity in the market is currently fragile. On the positive side is the ceasefire between the US and Iran: the easing of geopolitical tension and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have revived risk appetite, causing Bitcoin to bounce back to $65,600. On the negative side are the ongoing structural outflows, the negative premium on Coinbase, and warnings that a large-scale capitulation in the market has not yet occurred. This is why it is premature to speak of reaching a bottom: many are awaiting a decline in prices to the area of $55,000, and in the pessimistic scenario, down to $40,000.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $66,000, with a target for growth to the level of $66,600. At around $66,600, I intend to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy Bitcoin from the lower bound of $65,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to the levels of $66,000 and $66,600.

Sell Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching the entry level of $65,600, targeting a drop to $64,900. At around $64,900, I intend to exit my sell positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell Bitcoin from the upper bound of $66,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to the levels of $65,600 and $64,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,725, with a target for growth to the level of $1,745. At around $1,745, I intend to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy Ethereum at the lower bound of $1,713 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to $1,725 and $1,745.

Sell Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today after reaching the entry point around $1,713, targeting a drop to $1,695. At around $1,695, I intend to exit my sell positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell Ethereum from the upper bound of $1,725 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to the levels of $1,713 and $1,695.

The price test at 160.22 coincided with the MACD indicator being well above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Today, the yen strengthened its position against the US dollar following news that the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to resume operations in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively ending the war. This news prompted an immediate positive reaction in global markets. This step is particularly significant for the Japanese yen. Japan, as a major oil importer, heavily depends on the stability of supplies. The reduction of geopolitical threats in the Persian Gulf region lowers uncertainty and, therefore, diminishes investors' need for safe havens, such as the US dollar. In such conditions, the yen typically begins to strengthen. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz also marks a new phase in diplomatic relations between the US and Iran. The achieved interim agreement, while not addressing all issues, is an important step forward, reducing the escalation of the conflict.

In the short term, further strengthening of the yen can be expected if the positive trends continue. However, much will depend on the outcome of further negotiations and the parties' ability to reach a long-term solution.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 160.15 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 160.50 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 160.50, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and serious dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 159.98 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to opposing levels of 160.15 and 160.50.

Sell Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level at 159.98 (the red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.70, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment, requiring just any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 160.15 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline towards the opposing levels of 159.98 and 159.70.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3400 coincided with the MACD indicator well below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential.

This morning, the pound rose, while the US dollar fell on news that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to end the war. This event has been a real gift for global markets, weary of geopolitical tension and the constant fear of conflict escalation. The cessation of hostilities and the beginning of dialogue on Iran's nuclear program open a new chapter in international relations. This demonstrates that diplomacy, even in the most complex situations, can lead to breakthroughs. Further negotiations promise to be challenging, but the very fact of the agreement is already a positive signal that reduces uncertainty on the global stage.

Financial markets, which react sensitively to such news, have already begun to adjust. The weakening dollar, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, indicates a rise in risk appetite. The British pound, by contrast, is gaining strength, reflecting increased investor confidence in the UK economy's prospects.

Today, there are no reports scheduled for the UK, so particular interest may center on statements from Bank of England representatives, whose comments regarding inflation and future monetary policy could significantly impact the pound's exchange rate and market expectations. However, considering that the central bank's meeting is scheduled for this week, it is unlikely there will be any direct hints about future actions. In the absence of clear economic indicators, market volatility may increase. This creates both risks of short-term declines in the pound and opportunities to buy at more attractive prices.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point around 1.3459 (the green line on the chart), with a growth target of 1.3498 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3498, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). We can only expect growth in the pound today following strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3429 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.3459 and 1.3498.

Sell Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level at 1.3429 (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3391, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3459 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decrease in the opposing levels of 1.3429 and 1.3391.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1571 coincided with the MACD indicator well below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Today, the US dollar has declined, and the euro received a boost for growth following news of a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran. The dollar's decline, traditionally considered a safe haven during periods of uncertainty, reflects increased confidence among traders in global stability. Market participants interpreted the news as a significant step toward reducing geopolitical tensions in one of the world's key regions.

The euro immediately showed confident growth. The strengthening of the European currency is due to several factors. First, the reduction of geopolitical risks lowers the uncertainty that has negatively affected the European economy. Second, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz may facilitate the activation of international trade, which is beneficial for European exporters. Third, falling oil prices will lead to reduced inflation in the region.

Today, in the first half of the day, market participants will focus on eurozone data. The trade balance report, showing the difference between exports and imports of goods, is a key indicator of economic activity in the region. A positive balance exceeding forecasts could signal a strengthening of competitiveness among European producers in the global market and, consequently, provide support for the European currency. Similarly, data on changes in industrial production, which reflect dynamics in one of the economy's most important sectors, will be closely analyzed. Growth in production, especially in key industries such as machinery and chemicals, will serve as a positive signal for the overall economic situation.

In the second half of the day, the focus will shift to statements from European Central Bank representatives. Speeches by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and ECB President Christine Lagarde could significantly influence market sentiment. Market participants will closely monitor any hints regarding future monetary policy, assessments of the current economic situation, and forecasts.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1622 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1663. At 1.1663, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can expect euro growth only after strong data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1598 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1622 and 1.1663.

Sell Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1598 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1560, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return only in case of very weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1622 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1598 and 1.1560.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Today, the US dollar has declined, and risk assets reacted positively to the news that the US and Iran have officially announced a temporary peace agreement. It is expected that the official agreement will be signed on June 19. Markets that have recently been in a state of tense anticipation have now reacted with relief to the first signs of de-escalation of the months-long conflict. The strengthening of the euro, pound, and other risk assets can be explained not only as a reaction to the weakening dollar but also as a consequence of expectations for the restoration of trade relations and a reduction in geopolitical tensions in the region. Traders who previously avoided operations associated with heightened risk are now showing increased interest in such operations.

Regarding data, reports on the eurozone trade balance and changes in industrial production are expected in the first half of the day. These economic indicators are important indicators of the health of the eurozone and may influence the further movement of the single European currency. The trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, and a positive value indicates that exports exceed imports. This, in turn, points to the economy's competitiveness. Changes in industrial production provide insight into the dynamics of the manufacturing sector, a key driver of economic growth. Recovery or growth in this segment signals increased business activity, which positively affects overall economic prospects.

Positive data on the eurozone's trade and industrial production, along with news of the peace agreement, are expected to create a favorable environment for further strengthening of the euro.

As for the pound, it would be good to get positive figures for the UK economy to support its active buying, but no important reports are scheduled for today. The absence of new macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom means that traders' attention will likely shift to other markets and global factors. This could create a temporary pause in the growth of the British pound until new reasons for optimism or pessimism emerge. At the same time, the positive global news on the Middle East settlement, along with anticipated positive reports from the eurozone, may partially offset the lack of British data.

If the data align with economists' expectations, it would be best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data come in significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is the most appropriate.

Momentum Strategy (on Breakouts):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Long positions on a breakout of level 1.1625 may lead to an increase in the euro to the area of 1.1645 and 1.1664;

Short positions on a breakout of level 1.1595 may lead to a decrease in the euro to the area of 1.1566 and 1.1535;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Longs on a breakout of level 1.3452 may lead to an increase in the pound to the area of 1.3478 and 1.3509;

Shorts on a breakout of level 1.3420 may lead to a decrease in the pound to the area of 1.3388 and 1.3359;

For the USD/JPY Pair

Longs on a breakout of level 160.24 may lead to an increase in the dollar to the area of 160.43 and 160.67;

Shorts on a breakout of level 160.02 may lead to a drop in the dollar to the area of 159.83 and 159.60;

Mean Reversion Strategy (on Retracements):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1635 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1585 on a return above this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3463 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3422 on a return above this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7104 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.7065 on a return above this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3971 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3940 on a return above this level;

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Reports on industrial production will be released in the European Union and the United States on this day, but the market continues to ignore about 95% of incoming macroeconomic information. Therefore, we do not expect any market reaction to the aforementioned reports. We believe the market will continue to wait for developments in the Middle East, specifically for confirmation of Trump's statements regarding the end of the conflict, the conclusion of a deal, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing to highlight among the fundamental events for Monday. The European Central Bank meeting has taken place, but the rate hike has not made an impression on the market. The euro did not appreciate, and the market simply ignored this event and Christine Lagarde's speech. The meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are scheduled for this week, so at this time, members of the Monetary Committees cannot provide comments concerning monetary policy. It is likely that both central banks will keep their key interest rates unchanged.

The geopolitical backdrop is gradually improving, but traders currently have only Trump's latest statements about ending the war, concluding a deal, and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Will this information be confirmed? This will determine whether the US dollar continues to decline. Let us remind you that the US president has been promising a deal with Iran for two months. In most cases, this information has not been confirmed. Therefore, the market reacted positively to Trump's statements last night, but with caution.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite actively due to encouraging geopolitical news over the weekend. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1584-1.1594, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3456-1.3476. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair also traded on Friday without any desire and showed a volatility of just 42 pips. It is evident that traders on this day did not react to world events. Two reports were published in the UK, which we initially labeled as secondary and did not expect to prompt a market reaction. In the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was released, but it also had no impact on the market. After a fairly active Thursday, the market froze again and, overall, has been trading in a sideways channel for more than a month, as is clearly visible on the hourly timeframe. The market's lack of urgency is understandable. Donald Trump promised a deal with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for the 29th time, but since the previous 28 times ended with nothing, the market is waiting to see what will happen in the Middle East this time. If the deal is indeed signed this week, demand for the US currency will continue to decrease, as the market will no longer need a safe-haven asset. And in 2026, the dollar will have been supported only by this factor.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two buy signals were formed on Friday, allowing traders to open two long positions. In both cases, the price moved in the right direction by 25-30 pips. Last night, we saw another rise following Trump's statements, but a sell signal formed in the form of a bounce from the 1.3456-1.3476 area.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has effectively been trading in a flat for almost a month, as the geopolitical situation remains consistently poor but does not get any worse or better. Without a resumption of full-scale war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect the growth it saw in February and March. If the war ends, the dollar will lose its key support factor.

On Monday, novice traders may open new short positions targeting 1.3380-1.3386 on a bounce from the 1.3456-1.3476 area. If the price consolidates above the 1.3456-1.3476 area, long positions can be opened with targets of 1.3587-1.3598.

On the 5-minute timeframe, current levels to trade are 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. On Monday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the UK, while in the US, a report on industrial production will be released, which is unlikely to interest the market. Today, geopolitical factors will again take precedence.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to develop the upward impulse from Thursday. Recall that on Thursday, Donald Trump sharply changed his tone towards Iran, again spoke about a "deal over the weekend," and canceled his order to launch new strikes against Iran in retaliation for delaying negotiations. Therefore, on Thursday evening, the dollar lost ground, but as we can see, this movement was not continued on Friday. On Monday night, Donald Trump again stated that the deal with Iran has been agreed upon and will be signed very soon, and that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened today. We still do not believe this, as the deal should be signed first, and then its conditions are implemented. Not the other way around. No confirming messages have yet arrived from Tehran, and on Sunday, Tehran refused to sign the agreement. Thus, last night, the market experienced another wave of optimism, but it did not last long. If the deal is indeed signed, the dollar will continue to decline, and the downward trend on the hourly timeframe will be completed.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, three sell signals were formed on Friday. The price bounced three times from the 1.1584-1.1594 area, each time giving novice traders an opportunity to open short positions. However, volatility throughout the day was once again low, and price action remained sideways. Therefore, traders could not realize any profit or incur any losses on short positions. A buy signal formed overnight and may develop on Monday.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the flat has ended, and the downward trend has resumed after three weeks of stagnation, but further growth of the American currency will depend entirely on developments in geopolitical events. If a full-scale war resumes in the Middle East, the dollar will resume its growth. If Tehran and Washington sign the deal, demand for risk currencies will increase.

On Monday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.1527-1.1531 if the price settles below the 1.1584-1.1594 area. Buy trades may be considered upon a rebound from the 1.1584-1.1594 area, with a target of 1.1655-1.1666.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Monday, data on industrial production will be published in the US and the European Union, which are not expected to be significant under the current circumstances, and no market reaction is expected. Today, the market will be waiting for confirmations of the deal's conclusion with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.