Next week will be the final full trading week of the month, quarter, and half-year. Unexpected moves related to portfolio rebalancing cannot be ruled out.

The US dollar index ends the week on a strong note, posting new annual highs and testing the 101.00 area for the first time since May 2025. The primary driver of the rally was a hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve that outweighed even the market impact of a signed framework agreement between the United States and Iran.

On Friday, the index pulled back slightly from a peak of 101.10 but is holding firmly near the key resistance area of 100.75. Markets, trading in reduced liquidity ahead of the US Juneteenth holiday, are digesting a new monetary landscape in which the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end is assessed at nearly 90%.

The critical question for the dollar next week is whether it can hold the positions it has won or whether geopolitical risks and a correction in yields will return the index to more familiar levels.

Fundamental backdrop: Fed's hawkish signal is dollar's main trump card

1. FOMC: a rhetoric shift and the dot plot

The FOMC meeting on 16–17 June represented an inflection point that materially altered positioning in currency markets. As expected, the Fed held the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting; the decision was unanimous for the first time in nine months. The decisive event, however, was the updated dot plot and the rhetoric of new Chair Kevin Warsh, which proved considerably more hawkish than the market had anticipated.

Key forecast changes

- Dot-plot shift. The median projection for the terminal rate in 2026 was raised to 3.8%. That implies nine of 18 FOMC participants now expect at least one 25-basis-point hike before year-end, and six of them expect two or more hikes. By contrast, only one official still sees rate cuts this year.

- Upward revision to inflation forecasts. Expectations for inflation in 2026 were raised: core PCE was revised to 3.3% and headline PCE to 3.6%.

- Removal of easing language. The statement's formulation that previously hinted at easing as the next step was removed entirely. That represented a clear market signal that the Fed no longer treats cuts as the baseline scenario.

Market reaction to Fed signal

Markets priced rapidly for a rate increase by October or November. The probability of a hike in December is now assessed at 88 percent, and chances of a move by October rose from 40% to 77% in a single week. Two-year Treasury yields, which are sensitive to policy, rose 16 basis points to 4.21%—the highest since February 2025—generating the largest one-day dollar gain since early March.

2. Monetary divergence: why USDX is above 100.00

The dollar's resilience is primarily due to the yield differential in favor of the United States. While the Fed signals the possibility of further tightening, other central banks are in very different positions.

Central bank actions this week and key signals

- Fed: held 3.50–3.75%—a hawkish signal of possible further tightening in 2026.

- ECB: hiked 25 bp to 2.40%—moderately hawkish, but an isolated move.

- BoE: held at 3.75%—a pause, with a small hawkish minority (two votes for a hike).

- BoJ: raised the policy rate to 1.00%—a historic step, but the US-Japan spread remains wide.

- SNB: held at 0%—neutral, emphasis on intervention policy.

The Fed's hawkish update threatens to trigger a sustained dollar advance, more than offsetting the dampening effect of the US-Iran deal, economists say. The United States' growth advantage, underpinned by AI investment and a resilient labor market, continues to attract global capital.

3. Geopolitics: USD weakness is short-lived.

Hopes for a framework agreement between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower and briefly improved global risk appetite, which put short-term pressure on the dollar as a safe haven. But the Fed's hawkish shift outweighed that factor.

Moreover, the Middle East remains unstable. On Friday, Switzerland's foreign ministry said planned talks between the United States and Iran would not go ahead. Israeli strikes in Lebanon and the cancellation of Vice President J.D. Vance's trip to negotiate with Iran add new risks. A renewed escalation could again boost demand for the dollar as a refuge and add another bullish argument for the currency.

Brief technical analysis

Technically, USDX has confirmed a mid-term trend shift, breaking key resistances at 98.97, 99.10, and 99.29 (the 144-, 200-, and 50-day EMAs) and this week reached an annual high of 101.10. Despite a correction on Friday, the index is holding near the key resistance at 100.75 (the weekly 200- and 144-day EMAs and the monthly 50-day EMA).

The index gained about 1 percent on the week, the best weekly performance since early March. It also remains above short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 20), grouped around 100.71–100.75, indicating the current retracement is being treated as a correction within an uptrend. A technical break above 100.00 and the update of annual highs confirm the resumption of the bull trend. Economists say the move higher was driven by a recalibration of Fed policy and has scope to continue.

For more details, view "US Dollar Index (USDX): possible dynamic for June 19, 2026."

Forecasts from major banks

- Deutsche Bank: year-end EUR/USD forecast 1.1500, implying continued dollar strength.

- Societe Generale: year-end USDX forecast 98.60–99.00, suggesting moderate dollar weakening in H2 but not a structural shift.

- MUFG: sees upside risks to its 2027 dollar weakening scenario, acknowledging that the Fed's hawkish signal creates upward pressure.

Key events to watch next week

- 22 June — PBoC LPR decision: expected unchanged; indirect impact via USD/CNH.

- 22 June — Canadian inflation (May): impact on USD/CAD.

- 23 June — preliminary S&P Global PMIs for Germany, the euro area, and the US: will show divergence in economic momentum.

- 25 June — US PCE (May): expected to remain elevated; a strong print would reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance.

- During the week — Fed speakers: any hawkish comments could strengthen the US dollar.

Conclusion

The US dollar ends the week as the clear outperformer, confirming its strength after the Fed's hawkish surprise. Chair Kevin Warsh's willingness to tighten policy and the dot-plot revision have fundamentally changed market expectations, prompting pricing of possible rate increases by year-end. The dollar benefits both from the interest rate differential and as a safe haven amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

The 100.50–101.10 zone will be the decisive battleground in the coming days. A technical break above it would open the path to new multi-year highs, while a sustained close below 100.50 could trigger a correction toward 100.00 and 99.95.

US stock indices dynamics

According to US data, tankers carrying 12.5 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz within a day. Pre?war transit levels will be restored gradually, which should put pressure on Brent and act as a tailwind for the US economy and stocks.

However, second?order effects could push up underlying inflation, forcing the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance and lifting US Treasury yields. In a Market Pulse survey of 101 respondents, 57% expect 30?year yields to rise above 5% by year?end. That level was breached during the Middle East conflict, the tariffs introduced by the White House in 2025, and the tightening cycle of 2023.

Fears about higher federal funds rates and Treasury yields are not the only worry for the S&P 500. JP Morgan warns that the risk of market mania is increasing, as the semiconductor stock boom is forcing investors to cut allocations to other sectors.

This is true across the IT sector. High spending on artificial intelligence is diverting cash from tech giants that previously used it for share buybacks. As a result, in Q1 only Microsoft carried out buybacks among the group — its $3.4 billion in repurchases was the smallest for the cohort in decades.

Buyback dynamics among tech giants

So, investors are far from confident the S&P 500 rally will continue. The probability of two or more federal funds rate hikes in 2026 rose from 17% to 53%. The derivatives market lifted the chance of Fed tightening in September from 27% to 71%. This shift in investor views boosts Treasury yields, raises companies' financing costs and slows earnings growth.

If falling oil is a tailwind for the S&P 500, rising interest rates in the US debt market are a headwind. That combination may lead to a short?term consolidation of the broad stock index.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 has reclaimed levels above the pivot 7,460, which is good news for the bulls. If the index can hold this level, it would be a reason to buy.

Due to low market volatility, none of the levels outlined in my analysis were tested.

It is unlikely that strong price movements will occur in the second half of the day. Without support from the Bank of Japan in the form of currency intervention, a significant decline in USD/JPY is unlikely. However, speculative upward movements are possible, especially given the U.S. bank holiday and the absence of important economic data. In any case, caution is required when trading USD/JPY long positions, as regulatory intervention may occur at any time.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches the 161.40 level (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 161.75 (thick green line on the chart). At 161.75, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a reversal of 30–35 points). A rise in the pair is possible today, but the potential remains limited. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 161.23 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward 161.40 and 161.75 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 161.23 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 160.85, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Downward pressure on the pair is likely to return only in the event of central bank intervention. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 161.40 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 161.23 and 160.85 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price level for taking profit or manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price level for taking profit or manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.

The price test of 1.3201 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 1.3201 provided an entry point for selling the pound, but no downward movement followed.

In the first half of the day, the British pound showed a notable increase, receiving a strong boost from the release of fresh economic data. According to the latest reports, UK retail sales in May showed significant improvement, rising by 1.2% compared to the previous month. This result substantially exceeded analysts' expectations of a 0.5% increase.

In the second half of the day, in the absence of significant U.S. economic data, market participants are likely to observe a noticeable decline in volatility. This period of relative calm may support currency stabilization and could allow the pound to extend its gains. However, a strong breakout above the daily high is unlikely.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, pound purchases may be considered if the price reaches the 1.3242 level (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.3281 (thick green line on the chart). At 1.3281, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a reversal of 30–35 points). A strong rally in the pound is unlikely today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3215 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward 1.3242 and 1.3281 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3215 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3168, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Downward pressure on the pound is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3242 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3215 and 1.3168 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price level for taking profit or manually closing positions, as further upside above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price level for taking profit or manually closing positions, as further downside below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should take into account overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test of 1.1427 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. A second test of this level for buying did not occur.

The euro showed a positive reaction to the released economic data. Inflationary pressure on producers, reflected in rising prices, indirectly suggests a potential increase in consumer prices in the future, which in turn could push the European Central Bank toward a tighter monetary policy stance, which is positive for the euro.

In the second half of the day, there is no U.S. economic data scheduled. This creates an opportunity window for short-term speculative trades aimed at recovering part of yesterday's decline. Market participants accustomed to active price movement are likely to attempt tactical positioning due to the absence of key news. However, despite the potential for a corrective move, the longer-term outlook for the euro remains uncertain.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered if the price reaches the 1.1475 level (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1512. At 1.1512, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Further euro growth can only be expected in the case of weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1448 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1475 and 1.1512 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1448 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1411, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from the level). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1475 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1448 and 1.1411 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price level for taking profit or manually closing positions, as further upside above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price level for taking profit or manually closing positions, as further downside below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should take into account overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental data releases to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if proper risk management is not applied and large trading volumes are used.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.

In the second half of the day, a quiet period is expected in U.S. economic data releases, which creates an opportunity window for the euro and the British pound. Against the backdrop of current profit-taking, the euro may receive a favorable impulse for further recovery against the U.S. dollar, while buyers of the British pound may continue to benefit from strong retail sales data. According to the latest figures, retail sales in May increased by 1.2% month-on-month. This result significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of a 0.5% increase and marked a rebound after a 1.3% decline in April.

However, the temporary absence of significant macroeconomic releases from the United States reduces uncertainty and allows the market to focus on other factors influencing currency pair dynamics, including developments related to the potential signing of a memorandum between the United States and Iran. It was reported today that the Iranian negotiation delegation is postponing its trip to Switzerland due to ongoing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon. The potential consequences of this situation remain uncertain, indicating that the Middle East issue is still unresolved.

Nevertheless, it is important to remember that currency markets are highly sensitive to unexpected news or statements from central bank officials. Therefore, despite current conditions that may support a recovery in risk assets, the possibility of renewed volatility and corrective reversals remains.

In the case of strong economic data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD:

• Buy breakout above 1.1485 targeting 1.1527 and 1.1557
• Sell breakout below 1.1448 targeting 1.1414 and 1.1384

GBP/USD:

• Buy breakout above 1.3256 targeting 1.3289 and 1.3323
• Sell breakout below 1.3215 targeting 1.3193 and 1.3162

USD/JPY:

• Buy breakout above 161.33 targeting 161.56 and 161.83
• Sell breakout below 161.15 targeting 160.90 and 160.67

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversion to the Mean) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD:

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.1487, upon a return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.1438, upon a return above this level

GBP/USD:

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3257, upon a return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3196, upon a return above this level

AUD/USD:

• Sell after a failed breakout above 0.7036, upon a return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 0.7010, upon a return above this level

USD/CAD:

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.4148, upon a return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.4123, upon a return above this level

Gold (XAU/USD) partially recovered from the losses incurred after reaching a more-than-one-week low earlier on Friday. However, the potential for further gains remains limited due to the prevailing bearish fundamental backdrop. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy and uncertainty surrounding the next stage of negotiations between the United States and Iran, the U.S. dollar has continued to strengthen for a third consecutive day.

In particular, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of major currencies, has reached its highest level since May 2025, putting pressure on demand for the precious metal.Following its first meeting under the leadership of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% level. At the same time, the so-called "dot plot" showed that nine of the nineteen members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believe that further rate increases may be necessary this year if inflation remains persistent. Moreover, Kevin Warsh's remarks during the post-meeting press conference focused on the priority of maintaining price stability, indicating that the Federal Reserve is in no rush to ease monetary policy even if economic growth slows.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market participants currently estimate the probability of an interest rate increase in September at approximately 70%. This continues to support elevated U.S. Treasury yields and contributes to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, optimism surrounding the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran is gradually fading, as key disagreements between the two sides remain unresolved. An additional source of uncertainty emerged after U.S. Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip to Switzerland for negotiations, citing the incomplete nature of the process.

Further tension stems from Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, which could complicate or derail potential agreements between the United States and Iran. Any signs of renewed escalation in the Middle East, as well as a lack of progress in negotiations, could boost demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, trading activity is likely to remain subdued due to the U.S. bank holiday associated with Independence Day celebrations.

Nevertheless, judging by current price dynamics, gold may end its third consecutive week in negative territory as investor attention remains focused on developments in the Middle East conflict.

From a technical perspective, repeated failures to consolidate above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) throughout the week, followed by a subsequent decline in prices, point to continued seller dominance. Momentum indicators remain in negative territory, further confirming the bears' advantage in the market.

The 200-day EMA at $4,368 serves as the nearest significant resistance level. To gain confidence in a continued recovery, bulls need to secure a daily close above this level. Until then, XAU/USD remains vulnerable to further declines, and any additional selling pressure is likely to be driven by bearish momentum rather than by tests of specific technical levels on the daily chart.

Gold (XAU/USD) recovered slightly from the weekly low reached earlier on Friday, but its upward potential remains limited amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

From a technical perspective, repeated failures to consolidate above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) throughout the week, followed by a subsequent decline in prices, indicate continued seller dominance.

Additional downward pressure is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains near the 30 level, reflecting weak demand without clear signs of oversold conditions. At the same time, the MACD remains in negative territory: its line is positioned at the signal line, while the histogram shows subdued momentum, indicating that bearish pressure remains in place.

The 200-day EMA at $4,368 serves as the nearest significant resistance level. To weaken the current downtrend and establish a more sustainable recovery, bulls need to secure a daily close above this level. Until then, XAU/USD remains vulnerable to further declines, with any additional selling pressure likely to be driven by bearish momentum rather than by tests of specific technical levels on the daily chart.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The wave pattern on the hourly chart has changed once again. The last completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the new downward wave also broke below the previous low. As a result, the trend has once again turned bearish. Geopolitical conditions have improved significantly in recent weeks, but the Federal Reserve has triggered a new wave of bearish pressure. A full-scale bearish move would require additional factors, which I do not currently see, but bulls are offering virtually no resistance at the moment.

There were very few important events or news releases on Thursday. The euro spent most of the day declining, although it would be more accurate to say that the U.S. dollar strengthened throughout the day. The pair continued to fall overnight into Friday, indicating persistent bearish pressure and the complete absence of bullish activity in the market. What could be driving this move? In my view, it is not solely the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting. Kevin Warsh and his colleagues did much to support the dollar, but I cannot say that the possibility of tighter monetary policy in the future is sufficient justification for a 180-point rally in the U.S. currency. It feels as though traders are either missing part of the picture, or bears had been preparing for this move for a long time and simply used the FOMC meeting as a catalyst. It should be recalled that the Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged at its June meeting, and only half of the FOMC members projected one additional rate hike before the end of the year. In my opinion, the regulator's hawkish stance is evident, but it is not strong enough to justify such an aggressive rally in the dollar. Nevertheless, traders can currently rely on technical analysis and key levels, as price action remains firmly one-directional. After all, what could be better for a trader than a well-defined trend?

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline toward the 0.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1411. A rebound from this level would support the euro and allow for a moderate recovery toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1569. Consolidation below 1.1411 would increase the probability of a further decline. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 15,878 long positions and opened 19,056 short positions. Over the seven-week period in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the conflict in Iran. During the past eleven weeks, the situation has stabilized amid a pause in hostilities in the Middle East, and bulls have once again regained the upper hand. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 219,000, while short positions amount to 205,000.

Overall, large institutional traders continue to favor the euro over the long term. Naturally, global developments of various kinds—which have been plentiful in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, the direction of the euro and the U.S. dollar will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy and economic data, and more on developments in Iran.

U.S. and Eurozone Economic Calendar:

The June 19 economic calendar contains no notable events. Therefore, the economic backdrop is unlikely to have any impact on market sentiment on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Long positions may be considered today if the pair rebounds from the 1.1409 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1514. Short positions could previously have been opened following a close below 1.1578 and below 1.1514, targeting 1.1409. That target has nearly been reached. New short positions may be considered after consolidation below 1.1409, with a target at 1.1291.

Fibonacci grids are plotted from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure turned bearish again following the FOMC meeting. The last completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the new downward wave broke below the previous low. It is difficult to say how long the bears will maintain their momentum this time, but support for the U.S. dollar may prove temporary. If we set aside the wave analysis, bears continue to maintain full control of the market. However, once the conflict in the Middle East comes to an end, it will be difficult to expect sustained long-term growth in the dollar.

Thursday's news background favored the bulls, but the bears paid no attention to it. They simply overwhelmed the bulls. First, the UK unemployment report came in below traders' expectations and therefore should have supported the pound. Then, the Bank of England demonstrated a slightly more hawkish stance in its monetary policy vote, which should also have supported bullish sentiment. In reality, however, neither event had any noticeable impact on trader sentiment. The market continued to price in the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, although I personally see no reason for such a strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar even in this case. Thus, traders' reaction to the Fed meeting proved unexpectedly strong. The market completely ignored the UK unemployment report. The Bank of England meeting was also overlooked. Under such circumstances, bears could continue pushing the market significantly lower. This is, of course, an exaggeration, but the news background once again has little influence on market movements. Therefore, it is currently best to rely on technical analysis.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3429, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and declined toward the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3159. A rebound from this level would support the pound and allow for a moderate recovery toward 1.3327. Consolidation below 1.3159 would increase the probability of a continued decline. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,944, while the number of short positions increased by 4,051. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 46,000 versus 109,000. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage is now more than twofold.

I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the prospect of a prolonged conflict, but recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although it is unlikely to be quick or easy.

U.S. and UK Economic Calendar:

The June 19 economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. Therefore, the impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling opportunities were available following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level and after a close below the 1.3277 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408, 1.3349–1.3355, 1.3277, and 1.3158–1.3177. All targets have been reached. New short positions may be considered after consolidation below 1.3158, with a target at 1.3025. Long positions may be considered following a rebound from the 1.3158–1.3177 zone, targeting 1.3277.

Fibonacci grids are plotted from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

Physical signs of normalization are appearing rapidly, something many analysts likely did not expect, predicting that prices would remain high due to difficulties in normalizing production and exports, with Iran playing a key role in this dynamic.

On Thursday, vessels carrying nearly 10 million barrels of oil either passed through the strait or were in transit—including the first Saudi tankers since the conflict began over three months ago. U.S. Vice President Vance reported yesterday that 12.5 million barrels passed through the strait in just one night. ADNOC has notified customers about the resumption of crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf ports. Kuwait has announced an increase in production. In peacetime, about 20 million barrels passed through the strait daily—while that level is still a distance away, the direction of movement is clear.

Trump, speaking on social media, welcomed the developments and dismissed criticisms from hawks who consider the deal too lenient towards Tehran: "The markets are thrilled—oil has collapsed, and stocks have risen." This is a politically significant moment: the drop in oil prices directly affects gasoline prices, thereby strengthening Trump's position ahead of the midterm elections in November. That is why he is interested in the swift opening of the strait.

However, it is important not to rush to conclusions about full normalization. Trust is fragile, and a lot still needs to be done to rebuild it. Goldman Sachs estimates that complete restoration of production through the strait to pre-war levels of 20 million barrels per day will reach 50% by September and 80% by December—even in an optimistic scenario, this will take months.

For financial markets, the key question has now shifted from oil prices to the trajectory of interest rates. The decline of Brent from a peak of over $108 to $79 is a powerful disinflationary impulse that will be visible in the CPI data in the upcoming July and August releases. If oil holds at current levels or drops further, the Federal Reserve will have a strong argument against raising rates this year—and market expectations, which have priced in a hike by October with about a 60% probability, will start to be reassessed. This shift will determine the dynamics of the dollar, bonds, and gold in the upcoming weeks.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $81.40. This will allow them to target $86.67, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The further target will be around $92.54. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to take control of $74.85. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and could push oil down to a low of $67.77 with the potential to reach $59.90.

The paradox of gold in this war is well known and has not gone away. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz has a dual effect on the metal. On the one hand, there is a positive aspect: lower oil prices reduce inflationary pressure, which theoretically reduces the need for rate hikes and removes the main brake on the metal. However, the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve during Kevin Warsh's first meeting on Wednesday outweighed this optimism.

Warsh indicated that a rate hike remains on the table, and markets are already pricing it in for October with a probability of around 60%. Historically, gold performs worse in the lead-up to a rate hike. Now it depends on whether the upcoming increase is a one-time insurance step or the beginning of a new tightening cycle.

If the Fed raises rates once and then pauses, falling oil prices will do their part, inflation will begin to decline, and gold will have room to recover. However, if data continue to indicate persistent inflation, the metal will remain under pressure. The resolution of this will primarily depend on how quickly the opening of the Strait of Hormuz translates into a real reduction in energy inflation in the CPI data for July and August.

Silver is down 0.5% to $65.34, while platinum and palladium are also slightly cheaper. The dollar remains supported by expectations of a rate hike, although the opening of the Strait creates a headwind through the channel of inflation expectations.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,186. This will allow them to target $4,249, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The further target will be around $4,304. In the event of a decline in gold prices, bears will attempt to take control of $4,124. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,062 with the potential to reach $4,008.

The price test at 161.05 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point to buy dollars. As a result, the pair rose to around 161.57.

The Japanese yen continues to decline sharply against the U.S. dollar, reaching its lowest level in four decades. This troubling trend is unfolding amid clear signals of potential currency intervention from Japan, which has previously warned of its readiness to take bold action to protect its national currency. Despite these ominous warnings, the yen continues to lose ground, indicating market uncertainty about the effectiveness of potential steps from Tokyo or the strength of dollar pressure.

The weakness of the yen raises serious concerns in Japan, as imported goods, including raw materials and energy, are becoming significantly more expensive, undermining the purchasing power of the population and increasing costs for businesses. The Bank of Japan had previously maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy despite rising inflation in other countries, contributing to the yen's weakness. However, the current sharp decline occurring after a recent rate hike is puzzling. It appears that traders are waiting for more aggressive steps from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is escalating carry-trade activity. The interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan may become more apparent, making the dollar attractive for investment and creating sustained demand for U.S. currency. This divergence in monetary policies between the two central banks is a key driver of the current dynamics in the USD/JPY currency pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 161.48 (green line on the chart), with a growth target of 161.88 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 161.88, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from there.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 161.26 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 161.48 and 161.88.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price breaches 161.26 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 160.85, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers could return at any moment; any hint from the central bank would suffice. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from there.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 161.48 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 161.26 and 160.85.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3210 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, indicating limited downward potential for the pair. The second test at 1.3210 triggered Scenario #2 to buy the pound, resulting in a 40-pip rise in the pair.

The British pound continued its decline against the U.S. dollar, reflecting yesterday's decision by the Bank of England to maintain the key interest rate at the previous level of 3.75%. This decision, which was expected by the financial community, was another brick in the weakening of the national currency. The central bank, commenting on its position, noted that the recent drop in global oil prices is viewed as an encouraging signal on the path to stabilizing inflation, indicating no need to raise rates further.

Today promises new tests for the British pound against the U.S. dollar, as the first half of the trading session will be marked by the release of several UK macroeconomic data points. Traders will especially pay attention to the retail sales data. This indicator is a key marker of consumer activity and the overall state of the British economy. A decline in retail sales may indicate a slowdown in consumer demand, which could negatively affect the country's economic growth prospects. Weak figures in this segment are likely to trigger a sell-off of the pound, as market participants adjust their expectations regarding the resilience of the British economy.

In addition to the retail sales data, figures on the net volume of government sector borrowings will also be published. An unexpectedly high level of government borrowing could raise concerns about the fiscal sustainability of the UK, which may also exert additional pressure on the pound.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point around 1.3201 (green line on the chart), with a growth target of 1.3266 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3266, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Expectations for the pound to rise today are only supported by strong UK data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from there.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3155 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3201 and 1.3266.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaches 1.3155 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3098, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Poor data will increase pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from there.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3201 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3155 and 1.3098.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1486 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish policy threatens to further strengthen the U.S. dollar and weaken the euro. Yesterday, the dollar demonstrated the largest two-day gain against the euro in the last three months, and it seems that the pressure will continue today. If the data from Germany disappoints, the euro risks falling even further.

Specifically, investors' attention will focus on the producer price index, a key indicator of inflationary pressure in the economy. Preliminary forecasts and analytical reviews suggest that the released figures will likely show a slower acceleration in the price growth of German producers. This, in turn, could exert additional pressure on the euro, preventing it from recovering its positions against the U.S. dollar. However, high inflation, even at the producer level, will likely persist, requiring more active adjustments from the European Central Bank.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today at a price around 1.1456 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1512. At point 1.1512, I intend to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expectations for the euro to rise today can only be based on strong Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from there.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1427, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1456 and 1.1512.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1427 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1378, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on the pair today will only return if very weak data are released. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from there.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1456, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1427 and 1.1378.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

This all happens against the backdrop of news that outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have resumed following the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal. Clearly, the recent breather was short-lived. After a single day of inflows that interrupted 18 consecutive red days, outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs resumed. The result was a decrease of $82.2 million from Bitcoin ETFs and $29.4 million from Ethereum ETFs—an outcome that logically follows what occurred the night before.

The first FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh delivered tough economic forecasts: rates were maintained, but most committee members do not expect any rate cuts until the end of 2026, while some even anticipate hikes. Bitcoin responded with a 2.2% decline to $64,150, while Ethereum lost 3%, with institutional investors, judging by ETF flows, taking the opportunity to exit positions.

Among altcoins, a similar pattern of selective demand is evident. HYPE attracted $2.1 million, SOL $1.1 million, and DOGE a mere $200,000. XRP, BNB, LINK, AVAX, LTC, HBAR, and DOT showed zero inflows. The total inflow across all altcoins barely exceeded $3.4 million, compared to $111 million in total outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The picture we have observed for several weeks has not changed: large capital is leaving Bitcoin and Ethereum without reallocating into altcoins, simply exiting the crypto market. This can be partly explained by the "AI summer" and the capital rotation toward AI infrastructure.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at an entry point around $62,900, with a growth target of $63,900. At around $63,900, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $62,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $62,900 and $63,900.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today at an entry point around $62,300, with a target of a decline to $61,400. At around $61,400, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $62,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $62,300 and $61,400.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,701 with a target for growth to $1,732. At around $1,732, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $1,682 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $1,701 and $1,732.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,682, with a target of $1,652. At around $1,652, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $1,701 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $1,701 and $1,732.

The Fed's hawkish policy threatens to trigger a new bullish breakout in the U.S. dollar, significantly outweighing the dampening effect of the U.S.-Iran deal. Against the backdrop of recent Fed statements signaling continued tight monetary policy, the U.S. dollar is showing signs of a potential bullish breakout. These signals are becoming increasingly evident, as the Fed appears intent on raising interest rates more aggressively over an extended period to combat inflation.

On the one hand, any agreement capable of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran could exert a restraining effect on the dollar by lowering energy prices and reducing geopolitical risks. However, in the current context, this effect is expected to be minor compared to the strength that Fed policy could provide to the dollar. Higher borrowing costs in the U.S., resulting from the tightening of monetary policy, make American assets more attractive to global investors, stimulating capital inflow and consequently strengthening the dollar.

Today's release of data on Germany's producer price index, although anticipated with increased interest, is unlikely to serve as a locomotive for strengthening the euro. Traditionally, strong wholesale inflation figures are viewed as a precursor to possible monetary policy tightening by the central bank. However, the European Central Bank already reacted last week, and in the current context, even a positive deviation from economists' average forecasts could be overshadowed by a broader range of macroeconomic factors.

Even if the producer price index shows unexpectedly positive dynamics, the market will likely view this as a temporary phenomenon or as a signal that producers are attempting to pass rising costs on to consumers.

As for the pound, data on UK retail sales is expected to be released. This data will serve as a key factor in determining the short-term direction of the GBP/USD pair. Weak figures indicating a slowdown in consumer demand may heighten concerns regarding the state of the British economy and negatively impact the British pound. In such a scenario, a decline in GBP/USD is likely to accelerate, as traders may prefer to secure their positions in safer assets.

Equally important is the data on the net amount of borrowed funds from the public sector. An increase in the budget deficit or an unexpectedly high level of debt may raise concerns about the UK's fiscal stability. This, in turn, could lead to a sell-off of British bonds and consequently weaken the national currency.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, then the Momentum strategy is the most appropriate choice.

Momentum Strategy (on breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Long positions on a breakout of 1.1450 may lead to an increase in the euro towards 1.1485 and 1.1527;
• Short positions on a breakout of 1.1430 may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1414 and 1.1385;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Longs on a breakout of 1.3207 may lead to a rise in the pound towards 1.3249 and 1.3285;
• Shorts on a breakout of 1.3168 may lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3131 and 1.3097;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Longs on a breakout of 161.56 may lead to an increase in the dollar towards 161.83 and 162.04;
• Shorts on a breakout of 161.30 may lead to a decline in the dollar towards 161.10 and 160.90;

Mean Reversion Strategy (on return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.1460 on a return below this level;
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 1.1423 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.3202 on a return below this level;
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 1.3161 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 0.7015 on a return below this level;
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 0.6987 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.4170 on a return below this level;
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 1.4125 on a return to this level;

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday—only one. This morning in the UK, the May retail sales report will be released. Earlier this week, far more important reports on inflation and unemployment were published in the UK, but the market paid them no attention. Therefore, retail sales will likely be ignored with 90% probability. We anticipate a corrective upward pullback today. We consider the recent rise in the U.S. dollar to be illogical and inconsistent with the fundamental and geopolitical backdrop.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Friday, it's worth noting the speeches by European Central Bank representatives, particularly chief economist Philip Lane. However, it should be remembered that last week the ECB implemented its first policy tightening in the last three years, and Christine Lagarde clearly indicated that this might not be the last rate hike. Thus, the ECB's monetary position is entirely clear at this time, yet the market simply ignores it, since the tightening of the central bank's policy should have strengthened the national currency, which we did not observe in the case of the euro.

The geopolitical backdrop remains steadily "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. signed an agreement remotely; however, too many important questions remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear issue" is not even mentioned in the current text of the agreement. This is precisely the problem that started the war and could lead to its resumption at any moment. At the same time, an agreement is an agreement, and a ceasefire is a ceasefire. However, the dollar is currently rising as if the Federal Reserve had increased rates by 0.5%, and the war in the Middle East has resumed with renewed intensity.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may start to correct after two days of decline. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1455-1.1474, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3175-1.3180. Geopolitics, judging by recent market movements, has taken a back seat, and the market is unjustly buying the U.S. dollar, which could be a trap set by market makers for the bears.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair continued its sharp decline on Thursday after a minimal upward retracement. The market continued to react to the FOMC meeting's "hawkish" results, which can be considered hawkish in a rather formal sense. It is worth noting that the sentiment among Monetary Policy Committee members has indeed become more stringent. Now, at least half of the Federal Reserve officials expect a rate hike by the end of the year, while about a third anticipate two or more phases of policy tightening. However, we want to remind you that before the FOMC meeting, the market had expected precisely this—at least one rate hike by the end of the year.

Additionally, it is important to note that the results of the Bank of England meeting were announced yesterday and cannot be labeled "dovish," which led the British pound to lose another 100 pips in a single day. The BoE took a neutral position, which is entirely logical given recent reports on UK inflation indicating a slowdown in consumer prices. Nevertheless, the BoE meeting can be viewed as "conditionally hawkish," as two officials voted for a rate hike, although the market expected only one hawkish voice. Therefore, the British pound certainly did not deserve a further collapse.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

In the 5-minute timeframe, two sell trading signals were generated on Thursday. At the beginning of the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3319-1.3331 area, allowing beginner traders to open a straightforward sell trade. A couple of hours later, the price broke through the 1.3259-1.3267 area. By the end of the day, the trade could have been closed with a profit of around 80 pips.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has left the sideways channel, but we doubt that the decline will continue. Of course, if serious reasons for a new strengthening of the dollar emerge, this scenario is possible. However, there are currently no such reasons. The conflict in the Middle East is resolved, and the Fed has only declared a potential rate hike by the end of the year. At this time, the rise of the dollar seems illogical.

On Friday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.3096-1.3107 if the price consolidates below the 1.3175-1.3180 area. A bounce from the 1.3175-1.3180 area will allow for long positions with a target of 1.3259-1.3267.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. On Friday, a retail sales report is scheduled for release in the UK, which is unlikely to be noted by traders. In the U.S., the economic calendar is empty.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its nearly catastrophic decline on Thursday, reaching the support level of 1.1455 by the end of the day. Now, two days after the FOMC meeting, we can draw more or less definite conclusions regarding both the meeting itself and the market's reaction to it. In our view, the situation is complex and ambiguous.

To begin with, the Federal Reserve merely declared its readiness to raise rates by the end of the year, yet the market reacted as if the central bank had implemented an emergency 0.5% rate hike. Let's remember that while the Fed is contemplating policy tightening, the European Central Bank has already begun tightening as of last week. However, the market ignored the rate increase in the Eurozone and reacted with a triple force to the prospective rate hike in the U.S. On Thursday, the European currency had no grounds for decline, and the U.S. dollar had no grounds for growth. Thus, yesterday, we saw the market continue to react to the results of the FOMC meeting and Kevin Warsh's statements. We believe that the market's reaction was excessive and illogical.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

In the 5-minute timeframe, one excellent sell trading signal formed on Thursday. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.1527-1.1531 area, allowing novice traders to open short positions. A few hours later, the support area of 1.1455-1.1474 was reached, where traders could secure profits.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the downward trend has resumed, but only due to support from the Fed. The U.S. dollar will not receive such gifts every day. With the deal between Iran and the U.S. signed, the market has one less reason to buy the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the Fed is not the only central bank considering rate hikes.

On Friday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.1413 if the price settles below the 1.1455-1.1474 area. Long positions can be initiated with targets of 1.1527-1.1531 if the price bounces from the 1.1455-1.1474 area.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, and 1.1830-1.1837. On Friday, no significant events are scheduled in either the EU or the U.S., and the market is likely due for a pause and some correction after two days of decline.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

The GBP/USD currency pair lost about 220 pips on Wednesday evening and Thursday, and this is perhaps a conservative estimate. We explored the reasons for the pair's decline in the EUR/USD article on Wednesday evening. The results of the Bank of England meeting can indeed be considered more "hawkish" than the market had anticipated. Due to high inflation, which nearly doubled in just three months (and the process is not yet over), the Federal Reserve is forced to shift its monetary policy from gradual rate cuts to "emergency rate increases." Therefore, the growth of the U.S. dollar on Wednesday was entirely justified. But what caused the dollar's rise on Thursday?

On Thursday, the BoE announced the results of its meeting, and these results surprised absolutely no one. The central bank kept the key interest rate unchanged, while two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a 0.25% increase. The number of "hawks" was noted in all official forecasts the previous day. However, just on Thursday, the forecasts were revised, and according to the new version, only one BoE official was expected to vote for tightening policy. In reality, there were two. Thus, the results of the BoE meeting can also be characterized as more "hawkish" than predicted.

Even setting aside the final forecast, the market expected a voting outcome of "0-2-7" and received the vote tally of "0-2-7." So, what was behind the fall of the British pound? The only possible assumption is that the market realistically expected a more "hawkish" stance from the BoE. However, this assumption does not hold up under scrutiny, as inflation in the UK has decreased to 2.8% over the last two months, which is even lower than before the start of the war in Iran and the energy shock. Thus, if the BoE was previously inclined towards easing monetary policy, why should it now lean towards tightening?

Moreover, the decline of the British pound on Thursday began BEFORE the results of the Bank of England meeting and BEFORE Andrew Bailey's remarks, who, by the way, acknowledged that inflation might accelerate slightly by the end of the year. However, whether this will indeed happen is uncertain. Thus, we conclude that on Thursday, the market continued to react to... the FOMC meeting. It was that meeting that could have triggered such a strong strengthening of the U.S. currency.

Consider this: on Wednesday evening, when the results of the FOMC summit became known, European markets were already closed. Therefore, European traders had no opportunity to react to this event. Instead, on Thursday morning, traders jumped into action almost from the very start of the European session. It is also worth noting that the unemployment rate in the UK fell to 4.9% in April, a level that should have prompted a strengthening of the British currency. Yesterday, we warned that it is unwise to draw hasty conclusions immediately after the FOMC meeting results are announced. The market typically needs around 24 hours to fully analyze information and act upon it. As we can see, the market's reaction was nearly twice as strong as on Wednesday evening.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days stands at 89 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Friday, June 19, we expect the pair to move within a range bounded by 1.3126 and 1.3304. The upper linear regression channel is directed upward, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area for the second time, warning of a potential end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3184
• S2 – 1.3123
• S3 – 1.3062

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3245
• R2 – 1.3306
• R3 – 1.3367

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. However, 2026 is currently looking extremely positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors and now also due to the Fed's readiness to raise the key rate. Therefore, long positions targeting 1.3428 and 1.3489 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be initiated with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3126.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are pointed in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend at present.
• The moving average line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently occur.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair lost around 150 pips on Wednesday evening and throughout Thursday. On Wednesday evening, there was a 120-pip collapse, followed by a slight recovery, then another drop. What caused such a significant decline in the euro and such a strong rise in the U.S. dollar? Let's break it down.

To put it plainly, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecasts for 2026 from 2.7% to 3.6%, removed any mention of easing monetary policy from the final communique, and half of the FOMC committee indicated through the "dot plot" their readiness for at least one rate hike by the end of the year. Moreover, a third of the committee members forecasted two or more rate hikes by the end of the year. Kevin Warsh notably refrained from providing his forecast.

What did the market expect ahead of the Fed meeting? Expert forecasts clearly indicated that due to rising inflation to 4.2%, the baseline scenario for the end of 2026 was a 0.25% rate hike. That is what the Fed communicated to traders on Wednesday evening. So, what was the conflict? The market was expecting an announcement of one tightening and received it. In our view, the matter lies precisely in that third of the FOMC Committee that forecasted two or more rate hikes. The market reasonably concluded that if, three months ago, the majority of Fed officials were open to one rate cut, and now half the committee supports tightening, it is possible that in another three months the majority will support two or more 0.25% rate hikes. Simply put, "hawkish" sentiment has not only strengthened within the Fed; it is currently intensifying. This is an unfinished process.

Thus, we must acknowledge that the results of the Fed meeting were more "hawkish" than expected, and even Kevin Warsh stated at the press conference that price stability in the U.S. is the central bank's primary goal. It is interesting to consider how Donald Trump will react to a rate hike. Recall that a key condition for Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair was his readiness to follow the White House's directives. This leads to two possibilities: either the White House and the Fed understand that the end of the war in the Middle East will lead to a slowdown in inflation, and in that case, a rate hike may not be necessary, or inflation is quickly brought back to levels close to the target, after which the cycle of monetary policy easing could resume.

Trump cannot fail to understand that, under the current circumstances, it is simply impossible to keep rates at their current levels, as inflation would spike even further. However, a swift conclusion to the war in the Middle East (yesterday it was reported that the deal with Iran has been signed remotely) could indicate that Donald Trump is eager to end the war at any cost. This urgency arises because Congressional elections are approaching, inflation has surged to 4.2%, and the Fed is now compelled to raise the key rate, contrary to the wishes of the American president. As a result, the U.S. economy will slow down, which is something Trump surely does not want.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days, as of June 19, is 68 pips and is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1397 and 1.1533 on Friday. The upper linear regression channel has turned sideways, indicating that the downward trend is not yet complete. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area, signaling a potential end to the correction, and is now preparing to form a "bullish" divergence.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1414
• S2 – 1.1353
• S3 – 1.1292

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1475
• R2 – 1.1536
• R3 – 1.1597

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, presumed to be a correction within the context of a global upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, but in 2026, geopolitics and, later, the Fed's hawkish stance provided strong support for the U.S. currency. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1414 and 1.1397. Above the moving average, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1597 and 1.1658. The conclusion of the conflict in the Middle East has not created any issues for the dollar. Bears are notably strong at this time, but sideways movement persists on the daily timeframe, and the dollar's growth potential is limited.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend at this time.
• The moving average line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently occur.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility metrics.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) signifies that a trend reversal is approaching in the opposite direction.

The GBP/USD pair continued to trend downward throughout Thursday. Just the day before, we mentioned that the market's reaction to the FOMC meeting might last up to 24 hours. It is not uncommon for the price to move in one direction initially and then return to its starting position. This time was different. Despite the Federal Reserve merely signaling its intention to start raising rates (at least not before September), the market spent the entire day buying the dollar. We do not view such a reaction as logical or justified. On Thursday morning, a strong UK unemployment report was released, yet it went unnoticed. The Bank of England's meeting concluded with slightly more "hawkish" results (the number of officials voting for a rate hike was higher than expected), but experts report that inflation in Britain will likely rise, forcing the BoE to follow in the footsteps of the European Central Bank rather than the Fed. However, all positive factors for the British pound were ignored by the market.

From a technical standpoint, the downward trend has resumed as the market has aggressively bought the dollar for an entire day. We do not consider such movement logical or justified. Instead, we view it as a potential trap for traders. There were no grounds for such a strong rise in the U.S. currency. The conclusion of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the BoE's neutral stance, and the strong inflation report from Britain—all these factors should have at least halted the decline. However, they were ignored.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, no trading signals were formed. Thus, despite the strong movement throughout the day, there were no grounds for entering the market. Perhaps this is for the best, as the pair's decline was unjustified.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that in recent years, commercial traders' sentiment has been continually shifting. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are often close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders continuing to dominate with... sales. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk-sensitive currencies is low.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (as shown in the illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed both directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. However, currently, geopolitical factors are providing strong support for the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East is not yet resolved, the U.S. dollar may still show growth potential. According to the latest COT report (dated June 9), the "Non-commercial" group closed 7,900 BUY contracts and opened 4,000 SELL contracts. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 11,900 contracts over the week.

GBP/USD 1H Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has resumed its downward trend, which does not align with the current fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. However, the market has ignored both the fundamentals and macroeconomics for three months, and now it is ignoring geopolitics and selectively responding to other factors. We do not consider the dollar's increase on Thursday to be justified. The movement is illogical.

For June 19, we highlight the following important levels for trading: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3393) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3330) may also serve as potential sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss order to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Friday, a retail sales report is scheduled for release in the UK, but since the market has already processed this week's inflation and unemployment reports, it is unlikely to react to the retail sales data. In the U.S., the economic calendar is empty. Ideally, the market should take a pause today and potentially retrace a bit upwards.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider opening short positions targeting 1.3096-1.3115 if the pair settles below the 1.3179-1.3187 area. Long positions will become relevant in the event of a bounce from the 1.3179-1.3187 area, targeting 1.3301-1.3309.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (thick red lines) indicate where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines of the Ichimoku indicator, shifted to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe, are strong lines.
• Extreme levels (thin red lines) represent previous levels where the price bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline sharply on Wednesday, reflecting a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar. One might wonder why this is happening. What accounts for the sudden and strong rise of the U.S. dollar? Yes, the results of the Federal Reserve meeting were more hawkish, and the Monetary Committee declared its readiness to raise rates by the end of the year to combat high inflation. However, the Fed has not raised rates yet, while the European Central Bank did so last week. The market ignored the ECB meeting results, while the potential Fed rate hike has been priced in for the past two days. Furthermore, there were no significant events or reports on Thursday in either the U.S. or the EU. The geopolitical conflict in Iran is coming to an end, and oil prices are falling; there is no longer a need to flee from risks. So why is the dollar rising? In our view, there is no clear answer. The dollar is rising because market makers are buying it. This could be a trap—a trap for bears in the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical standpoint, the euro's decline on Wednesday and Thursday triggered a resumption of the downward trend. However, FOMC meetings occur every six weeks, and the market continues to ignore most macroeconomic factors. Thus, the dollar's rise on Wednesday was logical, but on Thursday, it was less so. We believe that the dollar has ridden its luck and is taking full advantage of it. At this time, no leading analysts are forecasting growth for the U.S. currency.

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Thursday despite the high volatility. During the European trading session, the price was just shy of adequately addressing the area of 1.1536-1.1542.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 9. The illustration on the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been offloading the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar has acted as a "reserve currency" for a time. However, this process may have already come to an end.

We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the European currency, while there are adequate factors for the U.S. dollar to decline. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but when this factor reaches its "expiration date," everything will return to normal. And that may have already happened. In the long term, the euro could fall to as low as $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will remain relevant. Over the last few months, the pair has not approached this line significantly.

The arrangement of the red and blue lines in the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 15,900, while the number of shorts increased by 19,000. Consequently, the net position fell by 34,900 contracts over the week.

EUR/USD 1H Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend has been canceled, while the continuation of the downward movement is in question. The situation in the Middle East has resolved, meaning the dollar can no longer rely on geopolitical support. The Fed provided powerful support for the U.S. currency on Wednesday, but it is difficult to say why the decline continued on Thursday. The market continues to buy the dollar without reason, ignoring factors favoring the euro.

For June 19, we outline the following trading levels: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1578) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1550). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Friday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the EU or the U.S. After two days of decline in the EUR/USD pair, it might be time for a pause. Unless the market continues to sell purely on inertia, which is also possible. We believe there are no strong reasons for the dollar's current growth.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders can open short positions targeting 1.1362 if the price surpasses 1.1444. Long positions can be initiated with targets of 1.1536-1.1542 if the pair bounces from the 1.1444 level.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (thick red lines) indicate where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines of the Ichimoku indicator, shifted to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe, are strong lines.
• Extreme levels (thin red lines) represent previous levels where the price bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.