The global economy is in distress. According to analysts at Reuters, it has stalled due to US President Donald Trump's lofty tariffs. No one knows when it will be able to pull itself out of the dire straits. Does this mean Trump’s tariffs are a bad decision? Time will tell. Most experts agree that the tariffs imposed by the White House leader are pushing down global economic growth, which for decades had been sustained by predictable and relatively free trade.

Against this backdrop, major multinational corporations and niche e-commerce players have sharply lowered their projected sales forecasts. Besides, many companies have issued warnings about job cuts and have moderated their previous business plans.

Meanwhile, global markets are overwhelmed by the doom and gloom. The world’s leading economies no longer expect the high GDP rates they once counted on. The market is gripped by uncertainty over the ongoing tariff standoff between the US and China. This is the main factor holding back global economic growth, experts stress.

Isabelle Mateos y Lago, chief economist at French bank BNP Paribas, defines Trump’s tariff policy as a serious challenge and “a shock to the world.” Moreover, due to the trade war he unleashed, American companies have begun hiring far fewer workers than before. Many firms even completely abandon plans to expand their workforce.

Other major economies are also facing turbulence. According to recent studies, manufacturing activity in China plummeted sharply in April 2025. Experts note that this is the fastest rate of decline in the past 16 months. The situation is no better in the United Kingdom, where export volumes have seen their steepest drop in five years. Most economists describe Trump’s tariff policy as a “demand shock” to the global economy. Experts warn it may drive up import prices and suppress business activity in other countries as well.

Amazingly, some experts and policymakers believe in the efficiency of Donald Trump's economic strategy. According to Scott Bessent, the US Secretary of the Treasury, Trump’s current economic agenda, including tariffs, tax perks, and deregulation, constitutes "a comprehensive strategy to stimulate long-term investment in the American economy." Previously, the policymaker noted that a distinctive feature of US financial markets is their resilience, "which allows them to withstand any short-term volatility."

Surprisingly, in his statement at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, Bessent strongly defended Trump's tariffs. At the same time, the official emphasized the importance of the Republican tax bill currently under consideration by the US Congress. In Bessent’s view, this bill would solidify many of the tax cut elements from Trump’s first term, including a tax deduction for small businesses.

The Treasury Secretary points out that the key elements of the US president’s economic agenda, namely trade, tax incentives, and deregulation, do not exist separately. They are interconnected components of a unified mechanism aimed at stimulating long-term investment in the American economy, Bessent concluded.

Global market sentiment has been turning sour. All this doom and gloom is because hopes for a trade deal with China are fading. According to analysts at BCA Research, China’s economic outlook remains bleak despite the recent relatively stable tariff arrangements between the US and China. However, economic headwinds, including the expected decline in Chinese exports and the weak impact of Beijing’s stimulus measures, are taking their toll on investors’ sentiment.

"Despite a minor de-escalation in tariffs between the US and China, a lasting trade agreement remains out of reach. Meanwhile, the economic damage continues to mount," BCA Research notes. The experts estimate the probability of such an agreement at only 50%.

Besides, sluggish global trade is adding fuel to the fire, resulting in poor shipment volumes and worsening economic data. Moreover, the think tank warns about a further decline in Chinese exports.

The analysts at BCA Research point out that China’s stocks have not fully priced in the sliding trajectory yet. If this negative trend escalates, it will worsen profit forecasts. Against this backdrop, China's stock market may shrink more sharply than during the 2018–2019 trade war.

The experts recommend investors “stay defensive,” as maintaining an assertive stance will allow them to stay afloat. Furthermore, BCA Research advises favoring Chinese government bonds and A-shares. Meanwhile, forecasts suggest that China’s economy will log a significant slowdown over the next two quarters, "while Beijing lags behind the stimulus curve," the analysts add.

According to BCA Research experts, the factors weighing down China's economy include a potential rebound in the US dollar and a decline in global risk appetite.

India and Japan are wasting no time. They are ready to seize the opportunity from economic woes in the US and the weakening dollar. The US economy will no longer be viewed as the sole exception — other countries are now vying for the role of a global leader.

According to analysts at Nomura, India and Japan stand to benefit from the downtrend in the US stock market dominance. Experts highlighted the strong positions of these countries across key investment metrics. "The world used to invest in the economic exceptionalism of the US, but if that narrative shifts, financial flows could sharply reverse," Nomura notes.

Since 2010, foreign investors have bought $3.3 trillion worth of US equities, bringing their total holdings to $16.5 trillion, which represents 17.8% of the US stock market, according to Nomura estimates.

In a recent study, Nomura evaluated 46 non-US developed and emerging markets using 24 metrics across five key areas: market liquidity/efficiency, economic/financial fundamentals, governance and regulation, risk and stability, and global market/economic relevance.

Based on this methodology, the firm concluded that India (among emerging markets) and Japan (among developed markets) are best positioned to benefit if the US outlook deteriorates. "These countries will gain if investors begin to diversify away from the US," Nomura states.

China is the only serious competitor in this regard. If relations between Washington and Beijing get back on track, China "could potentially see an unprecedented inflow of capital," Nomura adds.

However, the key players remain India and Japan, which "possess the most critical characteristics for absorbing large capital flows — namely, depth (liquidity) and breadth (a wide range of investment opportunities)."

These qualities set India and Japan apart from other nations and suggest that they are better prepared to accommodate significant inflows from global investors reallocating away from US markets.

US President Donald Trump is signaling an unexpected turn in trade policy, announcing plans to ease tariffs on Chinese imports. While far from altruistic, the move is framed as a necessity for rebuilding business ties between Washington and Beijing.

Speaking on the issue, Trump said that he would reduce import tariffs on Chinese goods "at a certain point." According to the president, doing business with China would be "impossible" without some form of tariff relief.

However, Trump provided no timeline, leaving markets to speculate. He asserted that Beijing is desperate to do business with the US, claiming China's economy is "in very bad shape."

This is not the first time Trump has raised the possibility of scaling back tariffs. Recently, he acknowledged that the current 145% tariff rate on some Chinese imports is "very high, and it won't stay at that level." "It will decrease significantly, but it will not become zero," the US leader added.

Some analysts remain highly skeptical about the idea of Bitcoin joining the US government’s strategic reserves. They believe that the flagship cryptocurrency is far too volatile to be considered a safe sovereign asset. Among the skeptics is Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, who says ballooning US debt and the public image of crypto enthusiasts will prevent the idea from ever becoming reality.

"The US is a deficit country," Hayes said, adding that the only thing authorities can do regarding a strategic Bitcoin reserve is "not sell the Bitcoin they took from people."

He stressed that the US government is unlikely to print dollars to buy such a volatile asset and even less likely to explain that move to voters. "Especially when the popular narrative is a bunch of Bitcoin bros going to the club," the expert noted.

Hayes believes the whole idea is doomed to failure and will likely have no impact on the price of Bitcoin. "I personally think Bitcoin dominance is going back to where it was before the 2021 altcoin season, which is about 70%," he predicted. Hayes believes that the return of a full-blown bull market is only a matter of time.

Previously, the BitMEX co-founder made headlines by predicting that Bitcoin could reach a staggering $1 million by 2030. He also urged investors not to wait too long to invest.

Just imagine: American Democrats disapprove of stablecoins. They refused to support even the consideration of the appropriate bill. Market participants are trying to puzzle out what exactly about these altcoins worries US legislators. A group of nine Democratic senators who had previously backed the GENIUS stablecoin bill, introduced by the Republican Party, suddenly made a sharp U-turn. They announced that they would no longer support the bill in its current wording.

The lawmakers justified their decision by citing the lack of anti-money laundering safeguards and the absence of restrictions on foreign issuers in the legislation. This, they argued, undermines national security.

However, while this stance deserves respect, it contradicts the broader trend toward promoting cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins are currently in high demand, and the US Congress is actively working on digital asset legislation. Nevertheless, Democratic senators insist that the priority should be regulating cryptocurrencies, as failures in this area “leave consumers unprotected and vulnerable to predatory practices.”

Previously, lawmakers had been working on the bill known as the GENIUS Act, spearheaded by Senator Bill Hagerty. The goal of the legislation is to establish a federal framework for stablecoin payments. According to the document, these altcoins must be backed by liquid assets, and their issuers must not engage in lending activities.

In March 2025, the bill was approved by the US Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support. However, Democrats have now changed their minds. Experts believe this reversal may be linked to growing concerns over crypto companies allegedly tied to President Donald Trump. There is a potential conflict of interest, they say. “At this point, Democrats face a choice: move forward and make changes through bipartisan voting, or signal that cryptocurrency legislation remains solely a Republican initiative,” Senator Hagerty emphasized. Interestingly, at least seven Democratic votes are required for the stablecoin bill to advance.

The crude oil market is anticipating its revival. OPEC and its allies are determined to accelerate oil production growth. To achieve this, the cartel members will have to phase out the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of October 2025. This will be possible if the participants do not ensure compliance with their production quotas.

Last month, OPEC+ shocked the oil market by agreeing to a faster-than-expected production cut despite low prices and demand. Reportedly, these measures were initiated by the Saudi Arabian authorities, the OPEC de-factor leader. Perhaps the kingdom sought to punish certain cartel members for failing to adhere to their quotas.

On May 3, a working group, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, Russia in particular, agreed to a further production increase in June. As a result, the total output for April, May, and June will amount to 1 million barrels per day.

According to analysts, OPEC+ representatives are expected to stay the course. It might happen that the alliance will agree to an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June. If approved, the additional oil production could be implemented in July, experts reckon.

Changes are underway in the digital sector of the Green Continent. The sector will be subject to stricter supervision. This step is necessary to prevent fraudulent activity. According to an analysis of the current state of Australia's cryptocurrency sector, more than 400 registered exchanges and around 5,000 money transfer services are at high risk of being used for money laundering, fraud, and terrorism financing. These are staggering numbers! Following an inspection, the Australian regulator has imposed restrictions on 13 local crypto companies and launched probes into 50 firms.

According to Brendan Thomas, CEO of AUSTRAC, the agency uncovered “systemic issues related to insufficient or entirely missing reporting of suspicious transactions by crypto companies.” Besides, the agency has collected plenty of evidence showing violations of the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act (AML/CTF), including failures in customer identity verification (KYC).

“We launched an investigation in early 2024 to identify incompetent crypto service providers. We remind the public that failure to comply with AML/CTF obligations can result in criminal prosecution for company leadership, and firms that ignore regulatory rules will lose their licenses,” Thomas pointed out.

Previously, AUSTRAC called on all local crypto exchanges and money transfer services to implement an AML/CTF program, including risk assessments and staff training. This measure is essential to avoid regulatory sanctions. In addition, the Australian Treasury has introduced a plan to develop legislation in the digital asset sector. Notably, this document envisions the creation of a unified, regulated ecosystem.

China’s authorities are optimistic about national economic growth. Experts echo this sentiment, also anticipating an economic upturn. With such joint efforts, the Chinese economy is bound to expand.

According to Reuters, Chinese authorities reckon that the national economy will grow by 5% in 2025. “There is no doubt that China will achieve a 5% GDP growth this year,” Zhao Chenxin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China, voiced the government forecast. Meanwhile, investors are wondering how exactly the country plans to achieve such results. Zhao announced that the agency will roll out new policies in the second quarter of 2025. “The achievements of the first quarter have laid a solid foundation for economic development throughout the year. Regardless of the international agenda, China will stick to its development goals,” he emphasized.

However, these statements contradict the views of numerous experts who believe that the escalating US-China trade war will negatively impact the Chinese economy. Against this backdrop, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Goldman Sachs, and UBS have downgraded their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2025 and 2026. Their conclusions are based on the imposition of sweeping tariffs by the US government. Previously, experts noted that the trade standoff comes at a difficult time for China’s economy, as the country faces deflation due to sluggish income growth and a prolonged real estate crisis. Almost none of the analysts expect China to reach its 5% growth target. Nevertheless, the country remains full of optimism. Time will tell whether that optimism is justified.

A wave of distrust is sweeping across the United States as skepticism over President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies grows. According to new research from Gallup, a large majority of Americans doubt the effectiveness of Trump's approach, with 70% expecting his tariffs to harm US economic growth. These results could serve as a wake-up call for the White House.

The poll reveals that most Americans have little faith in the long-term benefits of Trump's protectionist agenda. About 62% believe that higher import tariffs will ultimately harm the US economy.

Furthermore, 70% of respondents expect the tariff war initiated by the administration to undermine US growth potential in the near term. An overwhelming 89% of those surveyed fear rising prices on a wide range of consumer goods.

Many economists now describe the situation as increasingly dire. Nearly one-third of Americans (31%) say that they cannot tolerate the economic consequences of rising tariffs and view them as an extreme trade policy. Some (20%) say they are willing to endure the hardship for a few months, 22% for up to a year, and just 15% for two to three years.

Earlier, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of Banque de France, also sounded the alarm, estimating that Trump’s protectionism has already damaged both the US and global economies. His remarks came amid a wave of downward revisions to US growth forecasts. At the start of 2025, many analysts had projected 2.5% GDP growth by year-end. This estimate has since collapsed, with some now expecting growth of just 0.1%.

Another consequence of Trump’s tariff hikes has been faster inflation across US consumer markets. This has further intensified economic headwinds as households face higher costs.

Warning signs are flashing across the digital asset space. According to Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist, the recent spike in cryptocurrency volatility could signal deeper systemic stress in the global economy and an impending period of unprecedented deflation.

In a sobering outlook, McGlone draws historical parallels to the 1929 US stock market crash, Japan's asset bubble collapse in 1989, and the dot-com bust of the early 2000s. He argues that the fragility of today's crypto markets could be an early sign of major economic woes ahead.

To support his view, McGlone points to technical indicators. He notes that the 200-day moving average for 10-year US Treasury yields is teetering on the edge of decline after reaching its highest level in two decades.

As for digital assets, Bitcoin remains McGlone’s primary concern. He warns that the leading cryptocurrency could soon reverse course. Unlike in 2009, when the broader equity market bottomed and Bitcoin began a sustained climb, current conditions suggest that the upside momentum may be losing steam. McGlone also highlights an explosive rise in altcoins, many of which remain highly correlated with Bitcoin's trajectory.

McGlone concludes that the era of easy money appears to be over. He predicts a wave of sharp asset deflation and major market upheaval. This stance contrasts sharply with that of more optimistic analysts and market participants who expect Bitcoin to soar to new highs in the coming months.

US President Donald Trump has made another bold claim about the benefits of his sweeping trade tariffs. He claims that the revenues generated from these tariffs could enable the federal government to lower income taxes for Americans earning less than $200,000 per year. So, have economists and voters been worrying needlessly about his economic agenda? Only time will tell.

In a recent statement, the US leader reiterated his previous assertion that tariff revenues would allow for substantial tax relief. "When Tariffs cut in, many people’s Income Taxes will be substantially reduced, maybe even completely eliminated. Focus will be on people making less than $200,000 a year," Trump said in his post on Truth Social.

President Trump's comments came just ahead of a new wave of steep tariffs on Chinese imports, which are set to take effect on Friday, May 2. However, even before their official implementation, these measures have already pushed up prices for American consumers. According to media reports and social media posts, popular Chinese e-commerce platforms Temu and Shein have sharply raised prices for US consumers.

According to Bloomberg, US import tariffs increased by more than 60% in April. Following the first round of Trump-era tariffs, the federal government collected $15.4 billion in customs duties. However, this figure represents only a fraction of what the federal government earns through income taxes. Preliminary estimates suggest that tariff revenue would need to grow substantially to substantiate Trump's claim that the duties could fund meaningful income tax cuts.

Data from the US Treasury Department shows the federal government has collected $2.26 trillion in tax revenue thus far in the current fiscal year. More than half of this revenue came from individual income taxes.

Earlier in April, Trump announced sweeping tariffs targeting America's key trading partners. Although he later postponed most of them, he raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, which triggered a sharp escalation in the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies.

The US economy is boiling over. The whole fuss is because of the president. As of now, twelve US states have filed a lawsuit demanding the cancellation of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump’s administration. The White House may be forced to reconsider its strategy.

Following the imposition of sweeping tariffs on several countries, New York and eleven other states took legal action seeking their repeal. According to analysts, this trade policy is slowing US economic growth while increasing unemployment, inflation, and the risk of a recession.

The lawsuit was filed with the US Court of International Trade. In addition to New York, the states joining the complaint include Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, and Vermont.

In early April, the American president imposed reciprocal tariffs on imports from other countries, setting a baseline rate of 10%. Moreover, starting from April 9, elevated tariff rates came into effect for 57 countries, calculated based on the US trade deficit with each respective nation. However, Trump later announced that over 75 countries had not taken retaliatory measures and had requested negotiations, so for the next 90 days, a basic 10% import tariff would apply to all countries except China.