JPMorgan has updated its economic forecast for the United States, now predicting a 55% probability of a “soft landing” rather than a recession in the first half of 2024. This optimistic shift marks a significant adjustment from their previous forecast, which had only a 30% likelihood of avoiding a downturn. Business insiders report that this positive change in outlook was influenced by a series of unexpectedly favorable economic data. Trade balances, supply indicators in the US, and global financial conditions have shown improvement, contributing to a more favorable economic projection. Previously, JPMorgan had expressed concerns about high interest rates impacting the private sector's growth, increasing the cost of debt servicing, and generally dampening economic activity. However, Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan, has now adopted a more optimistic stance. He suggests that the Federal Reserve might consider holding off on rate cuts to preserve the delicate balance of confidence currently supporting the economy. The latest data, which has been more positive than anticipated, paints a picture of an economy that could maintain a “soft landing” at least through the end of the next year. This revised outlook suggests that JPMorgan's analysts see a stabilizing economy ahead.

According to Bloomberg, strategists at Bank of America and LBBW are concerned that a growing policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank could put significant pressure on the euro. 

The European currency is expected to dive as much as 8% and hit parity with the US dollar, weighed down by the divergence in policy paths between the two major central banks. 

Last year, the euro fell to parity with the greenback due to the energy crisis. This time around, experts attribute such a gloomy projection to the regulators’ diverging approaches to monetary policy.

Moritz Kraemer, chief economist at LBBW, is the most pessimistic expert among those surveyed. The analyst predicts that the euro could plunge to $1.01 by 2025. "The dollar would just go through parity like a hot knife through butter" if the US regulator keeps its monetary policy tight, while the ECB eases, he assumed. 

According to strategists from Bank of America, the euro could come back to parity with the dollar if the ECB delivers three quarter-point interest rate cuts. In case of a new energy shock, Europe’s common currency could come under more pressure and take another nosedive.

However, traders believe such a bleak scenario is unlikely. Markets are pricing in only a 15% chance of the euro weakening to parity with the US dollar in the next 12 months.

Fitch has recently revised China's credit outlook to "negative." This adjustment reflects growing budgetary risks amidst the transformation of the country's economic model. Such developments prompt a critical juncture for China: the path could lead to new heights or potential setbacks. In a parallel move, Moody's had already adjusted its forecast in December 2023, indicating concerns similar to those expressed by Fitch. According to Fitch, the fiscal deficit in China is expected to rise to 7.1% of GDP in 2024, up from 5.8% in 2023. To put this into perspective, the deficit peaked at 8.6% in 2022 during the stringent COVID-19 lockdowns. Economic growth in China is also expected to slow to 4.5% next year, while public debt is anticipated to increase to 61.3% of GDP. Fitch states that this revision "reflects rising budgetary risks," suggesting challenging times ahead for the Chinese economy. In response to Fitch's revision, the Chinese Ministry of Finance expressed "deep regret," a sentiment that underscores the gravity of the situation. Meanwhile, Moody’s cautioned that this additional burden could exert fiscal pressure on the government. This series of evaluations by major credit rating agencies indicates considerable concern regarding China's economic outlook, reflecting concerns over its fiscal health and future economic stability.

India’s stock market could swell tenfold in mere 20 years, thus turning into an international financial hub. Bearing in mind India’s booming economy, such prospects seem realistic. According to the latest estimates, the trading volume of the domestic stock market has already surpassed $4.6 trillion. More than 6,000 companies willing to attract overseas capital went public at two major stock exchanges in India, CNBC reported, referring to Sujan Hajra, the chief economist at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, who is bullish about the benchmark stock indices.

Another optimistic expert polled by CNBC believes that India’s stock market has enough bullish momentum to expand to $60 trillion. This ambitious forecast is based on solid fundamentals. The Nifty 50, the benchmark index of the National Stock Exchange, surged by a whopping 20% in 2023, having outpaced Hong Kong’s main stock index. This amazing rally correlates to the 7.2% expansion in the national economic output in the same 2023. So, optimistic experts put forward weighty arguments.              

Remarkably, India is eager to assert itself as a high-tech leader of Asia, willing to challenge well-established heavyweight China. New Delhi cherishes a dream to become a kind of Silicon Valley for foreign high-tech giants, for example, Apple Inc. These companies were discouraged by tough economic restrictions imposed by Beijing during the COVID-19 pandemic. While a huge iPhone manufacturing facility in China was suffering losses during COVID lockdowns, India was working out plans to win over overseas investors.  

Indeed, India has ambitions to replace China as a more advantageous partner for electronics manufacturers and start-ups. The government is firmly on the path to its goal, enticing foreign capital and pumping up the domestic consumer market. These efforts are likely to bear fruit as India can boast a rapidly developing economy and qualified workforce. Nevertheless, New Delhi has to push harder to take over China’s high-tech leadership in Asia. Who knows? Perhaps India’s successful economy could outpace underperforming China in the not-too-distant future.       

A decline in productivity across G20 emerging markets could reduce global output by three times as hard as in 2000, the International Monetary Fund estimates. 

The IMF warns that domestic shocks in the group’s developing countries could hit rich-world growth, thereby dealing a major blow to the global economy, incomparable to what was the case 20 years ago. 

According to the fund, emerging economies in the G20 are now deeply embedded in the global economy. These markets are increasingly impacting global economic output. Thus, their weak performance could create larger "spillovers" to the rest of the world, which are now comparable to those from advanced economies.  

So, G20 emerging markets, which have doubled their share of world trade and foreign direct investment over the past two decades, now play a vital role in the economic performance of their neighbors.

According to the latest update from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Brent crude oil price forecast for 2024 has been set at $88.55 per barrel. This represents a modest $1.55 increase from their previous prediction of $87 per barrel, indicating an adjustment in line with global trends of rising values. Further, the EIA has adjusted its outlook for 2025 as well, anticipating that Brent prices will slightly decrease to $86.98 per barrel. This nuanced adjustment mirrors the expectations set by seasonal variations often observed in commodity markets. In addition to pricing forecasts, the EIA projects that US oil production will escalate to 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024, a clear sign of robust industrial capacity and strategic planning within the sector. The agency anticipates an even greater output in 2025, aiming for 13.72 million barrels per day, underscoring a confident outlook for the domestic energy production capacity. Meanwhile, Alexander Dyukov, CEO of Gazprom Neft, has presented a broader range for the 2024 oil prices, estimating them to be between $80 and $100 per barrel. This forecast reflects the inherent volatility and speculative nature of oil markets, where market players continuously adapt to evolving economic landscapes. 

Incumbent US President Joe Biden has already raised more than $90 million for the presidential race. Donald Trump lags behind his rival and managed to collect $66 million. Despite the modest fund for the presidential campaign, the Republican candidate has been winning favor among voters in several states and even in tiny American Samoa. Moreover, some political analysts recognize him as a frontrunner in the presidential race in 2024.

Interestingly, Democrat Joe Biden lacks this popularity despite the support from former Presidents and his party fellows. At the latest rally in New York with the participation of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, Joe Biden managed to win over voters who allocated $26 million.

Malek Dudakov, a political scientist and expert in US domestic policy, also says that the size of an election fund does not always correlate with public sentiment. Joe Biden is losing popularity and going down in the ranks of opinion polls.

Remarkably, Donald Trump is the first former US president who faced federal criminal charges and underwent impeachment twice. Besides, he still claims that he won the 2020 election.   

The US Treasury Department has reaffirmed its commitment to further global pressure on key cogs in Russia’s military industry. The United States would impose new sanctions every time the Russian economy feels comfortable with the previous restrictions, US Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo told a Senate hearing.

The US-led global sanctions coalition seeks to choke off Russia’s access to key inputs for its military-industrial complex, thereby weakening it. According to Adeyemo, Washington intends to hit the country with fresh sanctions to "throw sand in the gears" of the Russian military as it adapts to the previous punitive measures.

Thus, the deputy secretary of the Treasury Department called on the US and its allies to introduce more economic penalties to hobble Russia's arms production.

Notably, the Western countries ramped up anti-Russian sanctions after Moscow launched a special military operation in Ukraine. However, the economic restrictions caused pain not only for Russia but also for Europe and the United States, as gasoline and food prices skyrocketed in their territories. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly claimed that the Russian economy would successfully cope with sanctions pressure, adding that such a hostile policy pursued by the West could deal a crushing blow to the global economy. "In effect, these steps are aimed at worsening the lives of millions of people," Putin said.

Major oil and gas company Shell is considering quitting the London Stock Exchange and moving its primary stock listing to New York, The Telegraph reported.

Such a decision stems from concerns about investor apathy on the London Stock Exchange. According to the company management, Shell shares are undervalued. As of April, the energy giant has a market capitalization of $230 billion, while its rivals, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, are valued at $480 billion and $300 billion respectively.

Earlier, Shell announced massive layoffs. In an effort to reduce operating costs by $2 billion to $3 billion, the company eliminated at least 20% of jobs in its team responsible for making deals.

China's foreign currency reserves have witnessed an unexpected surge for the second consecutive month, challenging financial forecasts and accumulating to $3.246 trillion in March, a 0.6% increase from the previous month. This rise contradicts analysts' predictions, who had anticipated a decrease to $3.21 trillion, leaving some to reevaluate their forecasts. Despite the yuan experiencing a slight decline of approximately 0.5% against the dollar, China's currency abundance celebration continues. The total reserve volume marked its highest point since December 2021 by the end of the first quarter. Additionally, the value of China's gold reserves also saw significant growth, increasing by more than $12 billion within a month. February also showcased a notable increase in China's currency reserves, growing by 0.2% and once again surpassing the skeptical outlooks of financial experts. This ongoing trend has left many pondering how China consistently manages to defy economic currents.

On the back of the unprecedented aggressive monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve, analysts sometimes unveil forecasts of a recession in the US. In practice, occasional dismal metrics cannot be treated as precursors to a full-blown recession. Indeed, some indicators warned of economic woes, but the US central bank was confident about a soft landing. 

Experts at JPMorgan known for accurate predictions spotted the green shoots of a recovery in the manufacturing sector in September 2023. Their expectations have come true as the manufacturing PMI eventually climbed over the threshold mark of 50 points, separating expansion from contraction.  

JPMorgan believes that a recession will no longer pose a threat to the US economy by 2025. They reckon that a revival in the manufacturing sector is a good omen for the broader economic recovery. US industry clicked into gear amid robust consumption that accounts for the lion’s share of national economic output. As consumers are willing to spend money, such buoyant demand will, in turn, boost domestic manufacturing. 

Amazingly, the US economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of stubborn inflation and extremely high borrowing costs. JPMorgan offers convincing arguments that the economic apocalypse is likely to be canceled.    

The Thai government has announced a plan to distribute 10,000 baht (approximately $270) to each citizen over the age of 16 as a digital deposit, aiming to stimulate domestic consumption and invigorate the economy. Slated for the fourth quarter of 2024, the initiative, as stated by Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, intends to funnel a total of $13.67 billion into the economy. The move is anticipated to significantly boost local spending. Under the scheme, recipients are required to spend their digital currency within a 6-month period, exclusively at businesses located within a 4-kilometer radius of their homes. This constraint is designed to promote local economic growth and encourage residents to support neighborhood businesses. To access the digital funds, Thai citizens will need to download a specific application or use a personal code linked to their national identification cards, integrating technology into the disbursement process. The Prime Minister anticipates visible outcomes from this campaign by early next year. However, critics argue that addressing structural economic issues would be a more effective approach to solving the country's economic challenges than digital cash giveaways. Skepticism aside, the government's novel approach to economic stimulus is drawing attention both domestically and internationally. The initiative is part of a broader trend of innovative economic solutions being explored worldwide, such as Zimbabwe's recent decision to adopt a new gold-backed currency to tackle hyperinflation, setting a fixed exchange rate of 13.5 ZiG units to one US dollar. Both Thailand and Zimbabwe's efforts highlight a global shift towards unconventional methods in tackling economic challenges.

Implementing effective solutions for socioeconomic development is a daunting challenge. Economics is widely regarded as a nonexperimental science. However, the current environment forces some governments to resort to economic experiments.

Thus, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor John Mushayavanhu unveiled the new gold-backed national currency called ZiG, short for  Zimbabwean gold.  

Reportedly, all reserves of the Zimbabwean dollar will be converted into the newly introduced currency, which is anchored to foreign currency and precious metal reserves. The exchange rate set by the bank is 13.5 Zimbabwean gold per US dollar.

Given that the country is suffering from hyperinflation, the official exchange rate for one unit of US currency is about 22,500 Zimbabwean dollars. The black market exchange rate can be as high as 36,000 Zimbabwean dollars. 

The country faced uncontrolled hyperinflation last summer after the government made a number of ineffective policy decisions. However, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube and President Emmerson Mnangagwa chalked it up to private business, the stock exchange, banks, Western sanctions, and even one of Africa's largest insurance companies. 

Notably, the Zimbabwean dollar has been setting negative records since 2007. The lowest exchange rate was recorded in November 2008, when inflation in the country peaked at an astounding 79.6 billion percent.

As China's real estate sector grapples with a downturn and consumer demand wanes, one might expect a dip in the nation's export activities. Contrary to expectations, Chinese factories have ramped up mass production for international markets, causing a stir among Western countries, Business Insider reports. The surge in goods from China has sparked significant concern in the West, suggesting these are not merely everyday items but perhaps indicators of an overproduction issue threatening to overwhelm global markets. China appears to be attempting to mitigate its overproduction dilemma by distributing its goods globally, yet the international market seems unprepared for such abundance. This scenario has prompted US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to visit China to discuss the issue of over-manufacturing. China's solution to the overproduction problem has been to initiate global sales with discounts, with solar panels emerging as a leading export product. The abundance of these panels has led some to consider innovative applications, such as converting garden fences into mini-power stations. This flood of goods is causing consumers worldwide to reconsider the potential of integrating solar panels into larger projects, like roofing. Janet Yellen's trip to China, aimed at addressing the issue of excess capacity, marks her as one of many US officials to visit the country under President Biden's administration. Her participation in an event organized by the American Chamber of Commerce in Guangzhou will likely include discussions on balancing China's production with global demand. Yellen has voiced concerns over China's manufacturing capacities, which significantly exceed both domestic demand and the planet's ability to assimilate Chinese products. This issue is causing apprehension not only in the US but also across Europe, Mexico, Japan, and beyond. As China shifts focus from low-cost manufacturing and real estate to "green technologies," it seems poised to flood the market with solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries. However, it appears Chinese consumers are not ready to spend as before, and factories are challenged to sell their goods without incurring losses. The concern over China's export strategy is not limited to the US. The European Union is also striving to protect its production in the chip and electric vehicle sectors, where competition with China is particularly intense. The global economy may be on the cusp of a new era where the mantra shifts from "who produced more" to "who produced just right."

Analysts at CoinCodex predict an impressive threefold surge in the value of Solana within a month. Experts are sure that the cryptocurrency token could demonstrate eye-popping performance and skyrocket to $612.5 by early May, surpassing its all-time high by 135%. 

Although technical indicators are showing a neutral market situation, the Fear and Greed Index, a measure of investor sentiment, is currently at 78. This indicates that the market is experiencing strong bullish momentum. Notably, the last time investors greedily rushed to buy Solana, the blockchain could not handle the load. On April 4, 75% of transactions failed due to the surge in memecoin trading activity.

Over the last 30 days, the Solana exchange rate has increased in 60% of the trading sessions marked by significant volatility of 9.3% per day. Roller-coaster trading has been on full display in recent weeks.

Since the start of the year, Solana has been up by 78%, outdoing the 64% rally in Bitcoin. Experts attribute such a stunning result to the popularity of meme tokens, which appear to be the main catalyst for economic developments today. Therefore, now is the perfect time to buy Solana, CoinCodex analysts summed up.

The US IPO market is gaining momentum after its hibernation. Analysts at Bloomberg made this conclusion, though they hesitate to predict how many companies will venture to be listed as a publicly traded company in Q2 2024.

The two momentous events took place in March this year when Astera Labs Inc., a provider of semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for cloud and AI infrastructure, and forum social network Reddit Inc. launched IPOs on a stock exchange. Their successful debut on Wall Street did not happen by chance.

Other high-tech companies decided to follow suit. The highly-anticipated events in the next quarter will be IPOs of Rubrik Inc., a cloud data management and data security company, and its rival UL Solutions Inc.

Investors are inspired by the amazing performance of Astera Labs and Reddit. Indeed, Astera shares zoomed up by a stunning 90% since its first trading day on Wall Street. Reddit shares have rallied by 40% since then. No wonder, investors are waiting for the next IPOs of high-tech companies with bated breath.    

Meanwhile, analysts and investors are discussing potential gains and risks. Only time will tell whether the US IPO market will again capture investors’ attention for long or take a back seat.  

On April 2, 2024, global media company Forbes unveiled the 38th annual rating of the ultra-rich. The twenty business heavyweights possess a total wealth of $2.48 trillion. 

Bernard Arnault, the kingpin of the Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy business empire, has settled at the top rank for a second year straight. Despite global challenges and market jitters, luxury brands still enjoy buoyant demand. So, Bernard Arnault’s fortune has swollen to $223 billion.

High-tech entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos currently occupy the second and third lines. Competing for leadership, they sometimes swap ranks. 

Mark Zuckerberg dropped out of the top 10 a couple of years ago. However, he leapfrogged a dozen of his rivals, boasting the biggest one-year jump in revenue. Eventually, the high-tech mogul won the 4th rank as his net worth was estimated at $177 billion.

Oracle founder Larry Ellison was downgraded by one rank and placed on the 5th line. Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, and other business stars follow in the descending order.

To sum up, the US has again turned out to be the country with the most super-rich citizens.   

Samsung Electronics, the South Korean tech giant, is capitalizing on the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) trend to reinforce its leadership in the global semiconductor industry. Amid a notable resurgence in semiconductor stocks over the past year, Samsung's strategic emphasis on AI has been a significant driver of its recent success. Bloomberg reports highlight Samsung's role in this revival, pointing to its AI strategy as a catalyst for increased demand in the flash memory sector, where Samsung maintains its position as a market leader. The advent of AI technologies is expected to significantly boost the demand for high-capacity, energy-intensive memory solutions, offering Samsung a lucrative opportunity for growth and technological monetization after a period of market downturn. This resurgence has caught the attention of investment fund managers who are now keenly allocating resources to Samsung, anticipating substantial returns. The company's stock has seen a 32% increase, reflecting investor confidence and the positive market response to Samsung's strategic initiatives. In contrast, competitors like SK Hynix have experienced a dip in stock value, prompting investors to reallocate their funds in favor of Samsung, with expectations of a continued upward trajectory. Samsung's commitment to innovation in the AI space signals the potential for further advancements and market dominance in the semiconductor industry. As the tech world eagerly watches, Samsung's strategic moves in AI and semiconductor technology are set to define the next phase of growth in this highly competitive sector.

China’s treasure hunt appears to be far from over. The appetite for gold remains particularly strong, with the People's Bank of China adding bullion to its reserves for the 17th straight month in March.

This helped power gold to records. The precious metal extended its bullish run fueled by optimism that the US Federal Reserve was nearing a long-awaited shift toward cutting interest rates.

According to Bloomberg, China’s central bank now holds an impressive 72.58 million troy ounces of gold, a level last seen in November 2015. 

Increased demand for gold from central banks, including China and India, has been one of the key driving forces behind the asset’s rally since 2022. Data from the World Gold Council showed that global central bank gold reserves continued to rise in February 2024, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth.

Meanwhile, China’s foreign exchange reserves reached their highest level since December 2021, standing at $3.2457 trillion as of the end of March 2024. The reserve assets rose by 0.6% from February and 1.9% from a year ago, which the People's Bank of China attributed to the need to maintain stable financial holdings to weather risks. 

According to analysts, the bullion binge comes as part of China’s efforts to seek refuge in precious metals amid fears of geopolitical turmoil and inflation jitters. In addition, the country's gold-buying spree could help Beijing evade potential Western sanctions.

Truth Social, the social network that emerged with high aspirations, experienced a significant market adjustment, with its value decreasing by 21 percent shortly after its rise. This event marks a notable chapter in the financial journey of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (TMTG), the parent company of the network and an enterprise associated with former US President Donald Trump. In 2022, TMTG celebrated a profit of $50.5 million, showcasing a promising start. However, 2023 brought a challenging turn with a reported loss of $58 million, despite revenue increasing 2.7 times to $4.1 billion. Upon becoming a public entity, TMTG's company valuation surged by 50 percent to $9.4 billion, indicating initial investor enthusiasm. Yet, a subsequent 21.5 percent drop in stock prices adjusted the company's valuation to $5.5 billion. This fluctuation reflects the volatile response of the market to new entrants and developments within the tech industry. Analysts, including Michael Schulman, have observed that despite generating initial interest, Truth Social has not established itself as a formidable competitor within the global social media landscape. This observation points to the challenges new platforms face in gaining traction and sustaining user engagement in a competitive market. Amidst these developments, auditing firm BF Borgers of Colorado has expressed concerns over TMTG's future direction, drawing parallels with historical business downturns. Despite these financial rollercoasters, Donald Trump's net worth has reportedly increased by $500 million since leaving office. As the financial saga of Truth Social unfolds, industry observers are keenly watching to see if Trump will re-enter the political arena, adding another layer to his complex public and financial narrative. 

Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banks, remains skeptical about Bitcoin. Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, who is in charge of shaping the portfolios of the bank's VIP private clients, has questioned the value of the first digital asset, comparing the sentiment of today's crypto enthusiasts to the "tulip mania" seen three hundred years ago.

"We do not think it is an investment asset class. We’re not believers in crypto," the chief investment officer of the bank's wealth management unit said. Moreover, this is not a fleeting mood. The management of Goldman Sachs has long been convinced that cryptocurrencies have no value.

Mossavar-Rahmani even criticized the crypto industry for being hypocritical. According to her, crypto enthusiasts "all proclaim democratization of finance, yet the main decisions end up being driven by a few controlling people."

Citing the fact that it is impossible to assign a value to the cryptocurrency, Goldman Sachs remains negative about Bitcoin, noting that digital assets are not the best investment choice.

Mark Yusko, founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of Creek Capital Management, thrilled the crypto community with a bold forecast. The analyst believes that Bitcoin’s rally will bring its price to a jaw-dropping $150,000 this year. In this context, the asset manager reckons that it makes sense for investors to allocate even a modest share in their portfolios, at least 1-3%, for cryptocurrency. Mark Yusko predicts that Bitcoin is likely to boast the most investment luster among digital assets.

All in all, the flagship crypto skyrocketed by a stunning 159% in Q1 2024. In March, Bitcoin spiked to $73,000 and in early April, it slipped to $70,700, making an expected downward correction.

Interestingly, inspired by the official approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, Mark Yusko foresees a bullish trend in the crypto market for a decade ahead. It means that starting from January this year, the number one crypto could rally tenfold in the coming 10 years. The short-term catalyst for growth is Bitcoin’s halving, the event when a reward for mining is slashed twice, thus boosting incredible demand and a new wave of buying activity.    

As soon as the halving takes place in April, the analyst anticipates an investment boom in the crypto market. As a result, Bitcoin will rise to its zenith by the year-end. So, investors will be able to yield lofty profits by Christmas before the crypto market loses steam and enters into a new bearish stage.

Apart from the bullish forecast for Bitcoin, Mark Yusko is betting on the rapid growth of Coinbase’s native token. His prediction is confirmed by the fact that Coinbase’s stock has ballooned by 321% in the last 12 months. Therefore, the expert believes in the strong performance of this popular crypto platform. From his viewpoint, Bitcoin is going to be one of the most favorite assets in investment portfolios this year.