Standard Chartered has sharply revised its Bitcoin forecasts, cutting its 2025 year-end target from $200,000 to $100,000. The long-term projection of $500,000 has also been postponed by two years, moving from 2028 to 2030. Chief Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick acknowledged that the initial short-term targets were inaccurate, attributing the revision to market dynamics following a 36% drop from October's peak of $126,000 to $80,500 at the end of November.

Kendrick emphasized that such declines are within the normal range compared to previous cycles since the launch of spot ETFs in the United States. The updated forecast anticipates a gradual increase, with projections of $100,000 in 2025, $150,000 in 2026, $225,000 in 2027, $300,000 in 2028, $400,000 in 2029, and $500,000 in 2030.

The analyst explained that the slowdown stems from a shift in demand sources. Initially, growth was fueled by inflows into ETFs and purchases from companies like MicroStrategy, which operate as "digital asset treasuries." Now, this phase is considered complete, which necessitates reevaluating price expectations.

Betting platforms in the US are hesitant to make predictions about the Fed’s interest rates for 2026 under conditions of "stalled progress" towards 2% inflation, uneven but steady economic growth, and initial signs of a softening labor market. This is stated in a new forecast by HSBC, which warns that the coming year may pose a challenge to investor expectations.

After a strong 2025 for Treasury bonds, the bank believes that the Federal Reserve's ability to meet market hopes for sharp rate cuts will be limited by both structural and cyclical factors. HSBC anticipates a yield of 4.30% on 10-year Treasury bonds by the end of 2026—higher than the Bloomberg consensus—and a slight increase to 4.40% by the end of 2027. The bank maintains a neutral position on duration.

HSBC considers several scenarios. If inflation unexpectedly accelerates, yields could test the 5% area, especially if questions arise about the independence of monetary policy. Conversely, a softer economic cycle could provoke a "significant bullish steepening of the yield curve." As a result, the bank views the risk balance as "asymmetric," skewed towards further increases. Experts see positioning in the "belly" of the curve as the most attractive, where structural risks are lower, and yields remain acceptable.

HSBC also notes that potential personnel changes in the rate-setting committee, including the expected departure of Jerome Powell in mid-2026, will add uncertainty to the FOMC’s agenda. Regarding the Federal Reserve's operations, the bank foresees the start of "net asset purchases" in Treasury bills as early as the first quarter of 2026 to alleviate funding pressures as liabilities outside of reserves grow.

On the supply side, HSBC suggests that the sizes of coupon auctions will remain stable in the first half of 2026, but an expansion of issuances is likely to appear on the horizon, most probably in the fourth quarter, considering the increasing budget deficits. The bank also points out that swap spreads do not fully reflect these risks, creating the possibility that long-term Treasury bonds may show weak performance relative to swaps in the coming months.

Last month, the European Central Bank stated that China has been flooding European markets with excess goods at dumping prices for several years, harming EU manufacturers. These remarks come amid mounting pressure on European policymakers to address the sharp increase in imports from China.

In the face of high US tariffs and a protracted slump in domestic demand, Chinese companies are actively seeking buyers beyond their home market. However, the ECB estimates that the influx of cheap Chinese goods into Europe is not solely the result of American tariffs. After all, this trend began in 2021 when the Chinese real estate crisis first affected consumption in the world’s second-largest economy.

Government investments aimed at promoting growth have led to an oversupply of production capacity and price wars in the domestic market, making exporting a much more appealing option. To maintain competitiveness abroad, Chinese firms are slashing short-term costs, reducing margins, and sometimes even selling at a loss.

In a recent analysis, Goldman Sachs noted that intensified Chinese competition presents "ambiguous consequences" for ECB policy. An increase in imports could ease price pressures, but the overall impact on inflation will depend on the response of domestic demand and whether new price risks emerge. Analysts assert that the central bank has limited tools to react if inflation expectations remain stable.

Historical research indicates that the ECB has generally preferred to maintain its policy course unchanged when declines in domestic inflation coincided with accelerated growth in other regions. Goldman anticipates that interest rates will remain unchanged "for the foreseeable future," although the regulator will continue to closely monitor labor market conditions, wage dynamics, and core inflation.

At the same time, analysts warn that the risks to the scenario of stable rates lean toward a potential resumption of rate cuts next year, especially if external shocks continue to amplify competition while domestic activity remains sluggish.

Fitch Ratings forecasts that the sovereign ratings of the US and Canada will remain neutral in 2026. This assessment is attributed to weak economic growth, despite accommodative monetary and fiscal policies in both countries.

The US economy will receive support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, tax breaks under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and rising investments in artificial intelligence. These factors are expected to bolster consumption and investment, allowing the American economy to avoid a recession, although GDP rates will remain modest.

Canada, according to Fitch’s forecasts, will experience moderate improvement due to aggravating trade uncertainty and soft fiscal policies. The country is expected to maintain economic resilience but also does not anticipate accelerating growth. For both countries, the key factors will be the monetary policies of central banks, budgetary support measures, and advancements in high technologies. 

China's Premier Li Qiang affirms that US President Donald Trump is to blame for the collapse in the global trading system. According to Li Qiang, Trump's hefty import tariffs have accelerated the fragmentation of the global economy and splintered international supply chains. Though the IMF had warned of this threat long before Trump took office, his customs policy has turned risk into reality.

Li Qiang highlighted the urgent need for measures to address this issue. Only open and mutually beneficial cooperation between countries can ensure global economic growth, which is stalling due to a considerable slowdown in demand. The regionalization of trade is damaging to the global system.

FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam predicts a radical transformation of global logistics into a regional transportation system. The adaptation of industry to these new realities will require significant time and resources.

Eric Trump has asserted that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly attractive to long-term investors rather than to short-term traders. The son of the US president pointed out that major financial players, including sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and global institutions, are gradually increasing their investments in cryptocurrency as they seek reliable ways to preserve their assets.

Trump highlighted three key trends: the withdrawal of funds from exchanges, the influx into regulated investment products, and the increasing dominance of long-term holders. These movements indicate a recognition of Bitcoin as a macro asset and reflect investor confidence in its future prospects.

When comparing cryptocurrency to real estate, Eric Trump highlighted the advantages of Bitcoin. Property values are heavily influenced by local markets, borrowing costs, and maintenance expenses. In contrast, Bitcoin is traded globally, responds to overarching financial conditions, and benefits from scarcity and increasing popularity, which creates a more favorable environment for long-term accumulation.

French President Emmanuel Macron has issued an ultimatum to Beijing, threatening coordinated punitive tariffs similar to those imposed by the United States. France demands that China address the trade imbalance by the end of 2026. Macron believes that China must ease restrictions on imports and adopt a policy of mutual concessions.

French officials accuse China of protectionism, particularly regarding its control over the export of rare earth metals. Analysts interpret Macron’s statements as public pressure on Beijing following unsuccessful private diplomatic engagements. In early November, it was revealed that the EU had made little progress in mitigating China’s control over rare earth elements, posing challenges to Europe’s quest for economic independence.

The threat of imposing tariffs highlights the growing tension in economic relations between the EU and China and signals Europe’s intent to leverage US-style trade policy tools to safeguard its interests.

China reported a significantly larger-than-expected trade surplus in November, driven by a sharp rebound in exports and moderate growth in imports. According to official data, the surplus reached $111.68 billion—considerably higher than the consensus forecast of $100.20 billion and above October's level of $90.07 billion.

Exports surged by 5.9% year-on-year, fully offsetting the 1.1% decline in October and surpassing analysts’ expectations of just a 3.8% increase. In contrast, imports rose by only 1.9%, way below the forecast of 3%, highlighting that domestic demand remains weak and is clearly responding more slowly to macroeconomic stimuli.

The robust exports largely reflect improved global trading conditions and a recent tariff truce with the United States, allowing Chinese exporters to regain some of their lost market share overseas. This strong surplus provides additional support for China’s economic growth in the short term. However, the sluggish imports signal that challenges related to domestic consumption and investment remain unresolved and could limit the sustainability of the recovery if the external environment becomes less favorable again.

Copper prices have reached historic highs, propelled by renewed optimism fueled by Citigroup’s ambitious new price forecast. The price of copper rose by 1.9% to $11,662 per ton, surpassing the previous record set just a week ago. The market is gaining momentum amid expectations of a supply deficit, as traders speculate that increasing US inventories may draw copper from other regions.

Citi’s baseline scenario projects an average copper price of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter. Analysts led by Max Layton are confident that the rally will continue into 2026 due to a combination of bullish factors, including a more favorable macroeconomic environment, improved fundamentals, and growing demand. Experts anticipate that global end-use copper consumption will rise by 2.5%, propelled by Federal Reserve rate cuts, fiscal stimulus in the United States, Europe's rearmament, and the ongoing global energy transition.

Since the beginning of the year, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange have climbed by more than 30%, with the rally gaining momentum in recent weeks due to concerns that the metal may flow into the US in anticipation of potential import tariffs. This scenario heightens the risks of inventory depletion in other key hubs.

Last Friday, the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange increased by 1.8% to $11,650.50 per ton. Growth also extended to other metals. Aluminum gained 0.3%, nearing its highest close since 2022, while zinc climbed by 0.6%. Markets are clearly bracing for a continued bull cycle in copper prices—Citi has merely formalized what traders have long suspected.

China is likely to keep its GDP growth target at around 5% for 2026. According to experts and government advisors surveyed by Reuters, to achieve this goal, Beijing will need to launch stimulus measures aimed at dealing with deflationary pressure. The stimulus package will be approved at the annual economic conference, with an official announcement anticipated in March during the parliamentary session.

To support GDP growth rates, analysts forecast a budget deficit of around 4% and a possible reduction in interest rates as early as the beginning of the year. Demand subsidy programs will likely be extended as well. In order to attain the status of a "moderately developed country" and double GDP per capita, China has to ensure an average annual growth rate of at least 4.17% over the next decade.

However, the economy is facing significant structural challenges, including weak domestic demand, excess production capacity, and deflation. Experts underscore the need for reforms to increase the consumption share, which currently stands at only 40% of GDP. Key steps should include strengthening social protection and simplifying internal migration.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates a surge in donations from billionaires, foundations, and corporations as part of the new “Trump Accounts” initiative. The Invest America program managed by the Treasury aims to reach 25 million children born between 2025 and 2028, engaging them in an “ownership economy” by providing access to asset growth that has traditionally been available primarily to affluent families.

At the New York Times DealBook Summit, Bessent announced that the initiative has already secured a significant commitment of $6.25 billion from Michael and Susan Dell. This program offers philanthropists a mechanism for directly passing some of their wealth to a new generation of Americans.

According to the Treasury Secretary, donors will have the ability to target their contributions, directing funds to children in specific states or school districts, thereby adding flexibility to charitable investments.

The United Kingdom has officially recognized digital assets as legal property. The corresponding bill has received royal assent, as announced by Lord Speaker John McFall. King Charles' signature has solidified the new legal status of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, concluding the legislative process that began in September 2024. 

The new law eliminates legal uncertainty, ensuring that cryptocurrency holders enjoy protections equivalent to those of traditional property owners. Digital assets can now be legally classified as property, included in inheritance practices, or accounted for in bankruptcy proceedings. Additionally, the mechanism for recovering lost or stolen assets has been simplified, significantly enhancing investor security.

The civil rights group CryptoUK has hailed this as a significant step toward establishing reliability for market participants. The decision is based on recommendations from the Law Commission, which proposed creating a distinct category of personal property for digital assets, taking into account their unique nature and technical characteristics.

Donald Trump’s administration is launching a program called Trump Accounts, under which each US citizen born between 2025 and 2028 will receive an investment savings account with an initial amount of $1,000. This initiative is designed to help children from low-income families build capital by the time they reach adulthood. The program is set to begin on July 4, 2026, the day marking the 250th anniversary of American independence.

Parents or guardians will need to apply to open the account. Family members, employers, and charitable organizations will be able to contribute to it, but contributions are capped at $5,000 per year. Funds will be automatically invested in index funds tied to the benchmark indices of the US stock market. Upon reaching the age of 18, the accumulated savings will be converted into a standard retirement plan.

According to the administration's calculations, with maximum annual contributions, a child could amass between $191,500 and $676,400 by the time they reach adulthood, depending on market returns. This will provide a powerful financial start for a new generation of Americans.

In a podcast with Nikhil Kamath, Elon Musk referred to Bitcoin as an "energy currency," highlighting its fundamental differences from traditional fiat money.

The Tesla CEO noted that the value of the first cryptocurrency is directly tied to electricity costs and the complexity involved in mining it through the Proof-of-Work algorithm. According to Musk, unlike conventional money, energy cannot simply be printed or created through legislation.

He drew a parallel to the Kardashev Scale, which measures a civilization's advancement based on its energy consumption. Musk suggested that as artificial intelligence and robotics continue to develop, traditional currencies may become obsolete.

In contrast, Bitcoin, with its capped supply of 21 million coins and resistance to political influence, is poised to remain a stable asset, as its value is underpinned by tangible physical resources.

Additionally, Musk previously proposed transitioning US Treasury transactions to a blockchain system. He believes that this move could prevent misuse of budgetary funds and significantly enhance transparency in government expenditures.

This dramatic decline occurred despite a positive third-quarter earnings report, which revealed a net profit of $3.47 million and a revenue increase to $64.2 million. Furthermore, ABTC expanded its reserves by acquiring 3,000 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to over 4,000 BTC.

The stock’s crash reflects a broader trend in the sector. Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), led by Michael Saylor, have also experienced a similar loss, with the company's market capitalization now falling below the value of its Bitcoin assets. Notably, Eric Trump has previously described volatility as an ally for investors, enabling them to purchase assets at a reduced price.

Headline inflation in Germany in November was stronger than market expectations. The harmonized inflation rate, according to EU standards, increased to 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' forecast of 2.4%. This notable acceleration compared to the October HICP of 2.3% indicates persistent inflationary pressure in the largest European economy.

The domestic consumer price index showed a different trend, rising by 2.3% year-on-year, which was slightly below the estimated 2.4%. The CPI dipped by 0.2% on a monthly basis. The harmonised index fell by 0.5% in the month, slightly below the expected decline of 0.6%.

The unexpected rise in harmonized inflation creates uncertainty for economic planning in the eurozone. If forecasts are exceeded, investors will need to adjust their expectations for the ECB’s further policy moves, as stubborn inflation hinders rapid monetary policy easing.