Some analysts believe that a Trump presidency could send the dollar tumbling, but many bankers disagree. They are confident that the eccentric billionaire could boost the national currency. This scenario is quite plausible.

According to Wall Street strategists, a victory for the Republican candidate could lead to a significant rise in the value of the US dollar. However, these conclusions are somewhat contradictory, as US presidential candidate Donald Trump has previously stated that a strong dollar creates problems. Therefore, he would not mind seeing the national currency weaken.

Currency strategists at Deutsche Bank argue that it would be difficult for Trump to artificially devalue the greenback, as it would require "trillions of dollars" in interventions or policies aimed at stimulating a massive outflow of capital from the United States. Analysts at Morgan Stanley partially agree, claiming that the Republican's proposed policies would lead to a rally in the national currency, while Barclays has recommended taking advantage of the recent dollar weakness to reopen long positions.

These calls from strategists follow Trump's comments on how the dollar's strength hurts America’s competitiveness. During his first term as president, the billionaire maintained this stance. However, things may be about to change. The Republican's recent remarks have weighed on the greenback, which has dipped by 1.6% after hitting an eight-month high in late June.

Deutsche Bank highlights Trump's policy of proposing tariff increases. The analysts believe that a broad implementation of tariffs and their serious implications are negative for the dollar. However, they will become a dominant market factor rather than policies aimed at weakening the greenback, the bank estimates.

"Even on its own, the tariff risk is enough to argue for a dollar rally," currency strategists at Barclays said. "Even if fully retaliated, tariffs of the magnitude discussed by the Trump team would likely boost the dollar by up to 4% against currencies like the Chinese yuan," they added.

According to James Lord, a currency strategist at Morgan Stanley, the debate over the greenback's prospects has intensified following Trump's recent comments on the weakness of the national currency. The expert is confident that the introduction of tariffs will lead to a stronger dollar, especially if retaliatory measures from trading partners heighten risks to the global economy.

At the same time, analysts do not rule out that the Republican could try to weaken the dollar by curbing the Federal Reserve's independence. However, the government's system of checks and balances will hardly let that happen. Moreover, the unique status of the American currency guarantees its strength and resilience.

The crypto market is agitated because some analysts predict weakness in the near term. Nevertheless, there is no need to fear negative consequences. The cryptocurrency industry has been showing remarkable resilience in the face of global headwinds.

Recently, analysts at Binance Research highlighted a "Player vs. Player" model, reflecting structural deficiencies and weaknesses in the crypto industry. According to this model, new capital inflows are minimal, and traders are competing against each other for limited profits. Researchers believe the current turmoil in the crypto market is caused by huge BTC transactions by the US government, sell-offs of the flagship cryptocurrency by German authorities, and payouts to creditors by the Mt. Gox exchange which began in early July.

Binance Research highlights a slowdown in liquidity inflows in the crypto industry. This conclusion is backed by several factors such as the stagnation of stablecoin supply, outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, and curtailed project funding. Nevertheless, the current state of affairs is in no way hopeless. Their report discusses schemes that could improve the situation in the short and medium term. Among these are looming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and its efforts to combat inflation. Additionally, new capital inflows could arise from an increase in stablecoin supply and the approval of spot ETFs for Ether.

Previously, KPMG, one of the largest auditing firms, and Cryptio, a developer of a cryptocurrency accounting platform, teamed up to create an alliance to assist crypto companies. Specialists help firms prepare financial statements according to US accounting principles.

After incumbent President Joe Biden dropped out of the US election race and announced his support for Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's nominee, something extraordinary happened. The prospect of Harris running for the top office gave an unprecedented boost to the Kamala Harris-themed meme coin KAMA, which soared to a record high.

The KAMA meme coin reached an all-time high of $0.026. As a result, the trading volume exceeded $19.5 million in just 24 hours. Over the past week, the price of the meme coin has skyrocketed by a staggering 298%.

Another meme coin, Cumala Whoris (CUMALA), reached an impressive market cap of $455,000, with the trading volume surging to $3.5 million. Meanwhile, the Dark Harris (HARRIS) token saw more modest gains, with its market cap and trading volume standing at $59,000 and $617,000 respectively.

The Jeo Boden (BODEN) meme coin, inspired by the current US president, did not go unnoticed by crypto enthusiasts. However, things went the other way. The token plummeted by 57% to $0.01, reducing its market cap to $6.6 million.

Meme coins dedicated to Joe Biden's family members also suffered heavy losses. The Jill Boden crypto asset crumbled by 82%, while Hunter Biden's Laptop tanked by 45%. As a result, their market capitalization dropped to $100,000.

Gold is back in the spotlight, favored by top policymakers and leading central banks. According to the World Gold Council, the Reserve Bank of India has emerged as the leader in gold purchases among global central banks this year.

In June, the Indian regulator acquired 9.3 tons of gold, well above the average monthly purchase volume of 5.6 tons recorded earlier this year. According to WGC estimates, the RBI's gold purchases totaled 37.1 tons in the first half of 2024, marking the highest level since 2013.

The RBI is the primary gold buyer among central banks this year, the organization said. The Indian central bank's volume of gold purchases was second only to Turkey's (43 tons), surpassing China's 28.9 tons. Notably, the People's Bank of China did not add to its reserves in May and June 2024.

For now, the RBI's gold reserves have reached a record 840.7 tons. WGC experts estimate that this represents 8.7% of India's total foreign reserves, up from 7.4% in 2023.

As of the end of March, the Indian regulator held 822.1 tons of gold, with 413.8 tons stored overseas, mainly in the United Kingdom. Notably, India usually keeps its gold reserves in the UK. Recently, the RBI has transferred just over 100 tons of the precious metal from the UK to its domestic vaults, the first such move since 1991 when a significant amount of gold was added to local reserves.

Last week, the price of gold reached a new all-time high of $2,468 per troy ounce, driven by increased demand for the metal as a safe-haven asset amid market instability.

According to data from the ICE London exchange, after US President Joe Biden announced the end of his campaign and his withdrawal from the presidential race, oil prices grew by 0.4%–0.5%. Curiously, the oil market welcomed this decision!

Global petroleum prices benefitted from the decision of the current White House chief to exit from the presidential race. London-traded September futures for Brent crude oil jumped sharply by 0.49% to $83.04 per barrel. Moreover, Brent crude briefly spiked to a local high of $83.22 per barrel.

Regarding September futures for light WTI crude, their price increased by 0.48% to $79.02 per barrel. The next day after Biden’s statement, WTI futures reached an intraday high of $79.13.

On Sunday, July 21, Joe Biden confirmed his decision to withdraw from the race for re-election as US president. He also unveiled his approval of Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate. Besides, the White House chief stated that he is not resigning and is ready to fulfil his duties as president until the end of his term.     

The question of a further rally in crypto assets captivates J.P. Morgan. The analysts at the US-based bank do not believe in it. Interestingly, the bank is sceptical about the further growth of Bitcoin and other popular digital currencies.

Having scrutinized the situation in the crypto market, analysts at J.P. Morgan conclude that Bitcoin is highly overvalued. Meanwhile, one Bitcoin is trading at $67,000, which is an elevated price, according to the bank. The analysts compared the value of Bitcoin and gold, noting that the cost of the precious metal, adjusted for the difference in the number of assets, is approximately $53,000.

Bearing in mind the cost of mining, one Bitcoin is worth about $43,000. This figure differs from its market price.

At the moment, the value of the flagship cryptocurrency is way above the price of gold when adjusted for the number of assets. Historical data indicates that Bitcoin is not able to dominate the precious metal for long. "The first cryptocurrency will yield to its tangible competitor in the near future," J.P. Morgan predicts.

The analysts point out that the ongoing rally that began last week is coming to an end. After this, a strong downward correction is imminent. Nevertheless, the crypto experts forecast a revival of the uptrend for Bitcoin and other digital assets in August. According to J.P. Morgan, the downward correction in the crypto market will end in the last month of summer.

For the past two years, inflation has been the Federal Reserve's primary concern. However, things may be about to change.

According to Bloomberg, the US central bank is poised to cut interest rates in September amid growing confidence in price stability. However, this move poses risks to the US labor market. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest that they have laid the groundwork for the upcoming rate cut. Market participants expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to clarify this decision following the July 30-31 meeting.

However, the decision is not yet final. Fed officials are still waiting for inflation to ease to 2% before lowering borrowing costs from their 20-year peak. According to analysts, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are determined not to miss the chance of sticking a soft landing for the US economy, which is showing signs of losing momentum.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge has decreased to 2.6%, and the once-overheated labor market has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Officials still see the labor market as strong but acknowledge that it is nearing a turning point, with job openings steadily declining and unemployment gradually rising.

According to Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the Fed benefits from keeping the labor market at its current level, even though "there is more upside risk to unemployment than we have seen for a long time." 

The number of job openings for the unemployed, which reached a record high in the post-pandemic period, has slipped back to 2019 levels. The US unemployment rate has risen steadily in each of the past three months, coming in at 4.1% in June, while wage growth has moderated. The regulator is "very attentive to what is happening with the unemployment rate," Fed Governor Lisa Cook said. "The situation could change very quickly and we would be responsive," she added.

The rebalancing in the US labor market is accompanied by a slowdown in consumer spending as high prices and borrowing costs constrain Americans' purchasing power.

Recent inflation data, described by policymakers as ranging from "encouraging" to "very good," has reinforced the Fed's belief that prices are moving in the right direction. The US central bank emphasizes that more information is needed before cutting interest rates. Nevertheless, market participants believe that a September rate cut is a foregone conclusion. Analysts suggest the regulator will do what is best for the national economy.

According to the Fed, it is time to clearly understand the two crucial tasks: fighting inflation and maintaining the labor market. Policymakers stress the need to monitor their conditions to "get to a place where we have both sustainable price stability and full employment."

Inflation in the euro area resembles a roller coaster ride, alternating between peaks and troughs. According to Eurostat, euro area annual inflation decelerated to 2.5% in the first month of the summer. This slowdown in consumer price growth, however, is seen as insignificant by European leaders.

Data showed that the annual inflation rate across the eurozone was 2.5% in June, down from 2.6% in May. The figure was in line with the statistical office's preliminary estimate. To put this in perspective, a year earlier, the consumer price index in the euro area came in at 5.5%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices in the EU increased by 0.2% in June 2024.

Eurostat reported that the lowest annual inflation rates were recorded in Finland (0.5%), Italy (0.9%), and Lithuania (1%). In contrast, consumer prices rose the most in Belgium (5.4%), Romania (5.3%), Spain (3.6%), and Hungary (3.6%).

Meanwhile, in Russia, which is under pressure from numerous sanctions from the West, the inflation rate inched down in June this year. According to the Bank of Russia, inflation was 0.64% last month, down from 0.74% in May. On an annual basis, seasonally adjusted consumer price growth in Russia eased to 9.3% from 10.7% in the prior month. Nevertheless, inflation in the country remains high, exceeding the rates observed from January to April 2024.

Front-runner in the presidential race Donald Trump has unveiled curious information! Recently, the eccentric billionaire announced that if he wins the election, James David Vance, the senator from Ohio, will become the US Vice President. The news came as a bombshell. The thing is that the potential Vice President owns Bitcoins. Meanwhile, the crypto community is scrutinizing the political profile of Trump’s nominee.

In mid-July, Donald Trump revealed that if he wins the presidential election, the vice presidency will go to James Vance. Remarkably, after the failed assassination attempt on the Republican, the chances of Trump’s winning jumped to a historical high of 71% on the betting platform Polymarket. With such a high rating, the billionaire remains confident, declaring that J. D. Vance is worthy of the US Vice President position.

Trump approves of his nominee because of similar views on several thorny issues stated by him and J. D. Vance. The Ohio senator is known for his positive stance on digital currencies. According to analysts, the crypto market is set to benefit from Trump’s victory in the presidential election. In this case, much will change in the crypto industry in the US if J. D. Vance becomes Vice President because he will introduce amendments to the legislation to tackle cryptocurrency circulation. He intends to simplify it and make it more transparent, enabling industry development. Specifically, one of his proposals is to ban regulators from forcing banks to deny services to crypto firms by threatening financial institutions with reputational risks.

Interestingly, Trump's supporter owns digital assets. Referring to a financial report filed by J. D. Vance in 2023, he holds Bitcoins worth between $100,001 and $250,000. It is known that the politician stored cryptocurrency on the Coinbase exchange platform. In addition to owning virtual assets, J. D. Vance has invested in ETFs for gold and oil and deposited about $250,000 into a brokerage account with Charles Schwab.

Many investors are frustrated with the dismal state of affairs in Germany’s economy. Does it mean that the powerhouse of the eurozone’s economy has been losing momentum? As investors want to play safe, they are now revising their portfolios.

According to a survey by the ZEW Institute, investor confidence in Germany's economy has worsened. The reason is the uncertain prospects of the EU’s largest economy. ZEW analysts estimate that the decline in confidence is recorded for the first time in a year.

The think tank notes that the investors' expectations barometer sank from 47.5 to 41.8 points in July. The bearish trend is attributed to the poor performance of the industry and relevant economic metrics. Besides, experts pointed to the grim economic outlook for Germany.

In the meantime, German exports have contracted more than estimated on the back of political uncertainty in France and ambiguity regarding the ECB’s future monetary policy, ZEW analysts explained.

Analysts at Bloomberg Economics reckon that Germany's economy is recovering too slowly. According to Bundesbank data, Germany’s GDP will grow by only 0.3% in 2024. Additionally, half of the projected 7% reduction in manufacturing capacity is due to structural reasons. A full recovery after two years of stagnation is a tough, almost unattainable challenge, Bloomberg Economics concludes.

In June, German Deputy of the European Parliament Gunnar Beck admitted that the domestic economy had to deal with negative consequences due to anti-Russian sanctions. In this context, Germany could lose between 1% and 1.5% of annual GDP growth. This trend could entail heavy losses of 1.5% or more over the next few years. The same issue is also relevant for other EU countries, including Eastern European states, the deputy added.

Experts are puzzled as to why the Spanish fan token has lost value despite Spain's victory in the UEFA Euro 2024 football championship. What a mystery! The Spanish national team won the Euro final, beating England. Even though the country lifted the trophy and reverberated with jubilation, the official cryptocurrency of the Spanish team, the Spain National Fan Token (SNFT), suffered heavy losses. Within 24 hours, the digital asset dropped by nearly 23%. Moreover, its bearish trend may not be over yet.

According to analysts, fan tokens tend to gain sharply ahead of a sports tournament. The asset typically continues its bullish run during the competition and after the team’s victory. Interest in the cryptocurrency gradually wanes thereafter. This pattern was observed during the 2022 World Cup. This time, however, the situation is different. Experts attribute a steep decline in SNFT amidst a recovery in other digital currencies and Spain's victory to investors wanting to sell the token at a higher price. Notably, SNFT had briefly surged by over 70% to peak at $0.03845 a few days before the final. 

In 2021, Spain's national team launched the SNFT token in partnership with Turkey’s blockchain platform Bitci, aiming to enhance fan engagement. In addition to the Spain National Fan Token, Bitci offered other fan tokens, including the official cryptocurrencies of football clubs Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona.

Gold has once again hit an all-time high. The price of the yellow metal has soared on the New York Commodity Exchange, reaching $2,455 per troy ounce. According to analysts at Comex, this is a significant milestone in the history of the precious metal.

On July 16, gold gained 1.48%. As a result, the asset surpassed $2,455 per troy ounce and hit a new record high of $2,465 per troy ounce.

Experts attribute such a steep rise to record-high demand, driven by sustained bullion purchases by central banks around the world. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that this bullish trend could push the metal as high as $2,700 per troy ounce by the end of 2024.

The optimistic outlook for gold is echoed by central banks in developed countries, as indicated in a survey conducted by the World Gold Council. Many regulators expect further gains in gold prices amid a weaker dollar. This view is held by 60% of respondents, up from 38% a year ago. In addition, nearly 13% of advanced economies plan to increase their gold reserves in 2025.

Donald Trump has managed to win over Elon Musk! Tesla and SpaceX CEO is going to sponsor Trump’s presidential campaign. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Elon Musk intends to donate $45 million monthly to support the Republican candidate.

American high-tech mogul Elon Musk intends to give away $45 million each month to a new political committee, America PAC. This way, the owner of social media platform X will support the election campaign of the former US president.

The Wall Street Journal referred to well-informed sources saying that Elon Musk defined America PAC as a "super political action committee" established to back the Republican Party candidate and front-runner Donald Trump.

Importantly, political group America PAC is involved in voter registration and monitors overall public sentiment. Besides, the committee analyzes voter sentiments in swing states. America PAC experts advocate for early voting and can also request mail-in ballots. The committee has several sponsors, including Palantir Technologies, Kelly Craft, former US ambassador to Canada, and her husband Joe Craft, CEO of coal mining company Alliance Resource Partners.

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its forecast for US economic growth. It now expects GDP growth to be no more than 2.6% this year, signaling a slowdown in the world's largest economy.

The agency projects that the US economy will expand by 2.6% in 2024. This figure reflects a slower-than-expected start to the year. In its April report, the IMF predicted an increase of 2.7%. The revised forecast represents a 0.1 percentage point downgrade from the previous estimate.

In 2025, the US economy is expected to grow by 1.9%, in line with the previous forecast. According to the agency, instability over the Federal Reserve's interest rates has caused fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate against other major currencies.

The IMF also anticipates that oil prices will remain around $81.26 per barrel in 2024 before falling to $76.38 per barrel in 2025. The average oil price forecast is based on the arithmetic mean of key benchmarks – Brent, Dubai, and WTI. Furthermore, the agency expects energy commodity prices to decline by 4.6% in 2024.

The flagship cryptocurrency is back on track! Crypto investors welcome Bitcoin's steady rally. Curiously, its recent growth has been sparked by unpleasant news—the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Since then, the market has stabilized. On Monday, July 15, the BTC price spiked, rebounding from a recent low as the market was digesting the accident at an election rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Later on, Bitcoin managed to rise to nearly $63,000.

The catalyst for BTC growth was speculation that the failed assassination attempt might boost Trump's chances for a second term. Importantly, the Republican Party candidate has claimed that he is a proponent of cryptocurrencies. In his recent campaign speech, he supported digital assets, stating his readiness to safeguard Bitcoin's status in the US.

In this context, Bitcoin showed an intraday gain of 4.6% and reached $62,708. Last week, the number one crypto weakened below a four-month low. However, BTC is now trading almost $10,000 higher.

Currently, the billionaire is accepting cryptocurrency donations for his election campaign. Many experts indicate that Donald Trump's re-election will be bullish for cryptocurrencies. Hence, the current situation has enabled digital assets’ appreciation. Indeed, Trump's defiant stance after the assassination attempt has increased his popularity.

However, many analysts doubt that Bitcoin will be able to grow significantly in the near future. The main reason for the potential slowdown in BTC growth is the massive payouts to creditors from now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox.

The thing is that Mt. Gox has begun repaying cryptocurrency stolen during the hack in 2014. So far, the company's management is not going to stop payouts.

As a result, the market has faced a sudden flood in crypto supply. It was one of the reasons for Bitcoin's recent decline as traders were confident that defunct exchange users would rush to sell coins. Currently, the total payout volume from Mt. Gox is unclear. In early 2024, it was reported that wallets linked with the exchange platform moved tokens worth $9 billion. Nevertheless, market sentiment has brightened up. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have played a significant role in this improvement.

The question of who will dominate the financial market – eurozone companies or those from the United States – remains unanswered, according to currency strategists at JPMorgan. Despite strong interest, experts caution against prematurely favoring European equity markets over American ones.

The bank warns against excessive euphoria regarding the EU stock market, even though the eurozone's SX5E index peaked in March this year. The broad-market S&P 500 index also showed strong performance, mainly propelled by seven large-cap technology stocks. However, the equal-weighted SPW index gained only 6%.

"It is probable that the divergence peaks, but that could happen through winners stalling and not through laggards rallying," JPMorgan said. According to the analysts, the SPW and SX5E highs coincide with the onset of deteriorating economic growth and political conditions.

Although economic activity has moderated slightly, market expectations for higher Fed rates have increased since March. JPMorgan anticipates that the challenging economic and political environment may persist for an extended period.

Experts at JPMorgan suggest that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are expected to commence in September, are likely to reflect a softer labor market rather than just easing inflation. This shift from preemptive to reactive rate cuts could slow the regulator's response to economic changes, the bank noted.

In addition, a slowdown in economic growth could impact corporate earnings in the second half of 2024. In the third and fourth quarters, JPMorgan forecasts strong annual earnings per share growth (13%-15%).

The bank's management favors investing in growing economic sectors, while maintaining a positive outlook on defensive sectors, particularly utilities and real estate. Although JPMorgan sees potential in the euro area, it believes that it is too premature to prefer eurozone equities over US equities. Experts foresee a favorable scenario for European markets in the second half of the year, provided that factors such as political stability in France and the absence of negative effects on the part of the US economy and the dollar align.