Analysts have raised their forecast for gold, anticipating a price of $6,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2026 and $10,000 by the end of the decade. Ed Yardeni's think tank revised its estimates after gold solidified at around $4,500. At the beginning of 2025, analysts anticipated a range of $4,000 to $4,500, but the precious metal surpassed expectations, rising by 70% within a year and by 171% over three years.

Yardeni Research's forecast is much more optimistic than the consensus estimate from JPMorgan, which projects $5,055 per ounce in December 2026. The rally is supported by geopolitical tensions and expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates make non-yielding precious metals more attractive to investors as safe-haven assets.

Despite mixed short-term movements, most experts agree that gold will continue to increase in value in 2026 amid ongoing global uncertainty. However, the pace of growth may slow compared to the dynamics of 2025. The growth is driven by a combination of factors: accommodative monetary policies from central banks, concerns about geopolitical risks, and the drive for portfolio diversification towards traditional saving assets.

The US dollar is on track to end 2025 with its worst performance in eight years, having fallen by 8.2%. On December 23, the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, reaching its lowest point since October 3. If this downward trend continues, the US currency risks posting its worst annual result in at least two decades.

The primary factor behind the dollar's decline is investors’ expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance from the Federal Reserve compared to other major central banks. Lower interest rates make the greenback less appealing to investors seeking yield-bearing assets. Seasonal factors at the end of the year are also exerting pressure: reduced trading activity and fewer transactions are diminishing demand for the dollar. In this environment, alternative currencies are strengthening. Both the Canadian and Australian dollars have reached multi-month highs, while the Swedish krona has returned to levels not seen since early 2022.

The options market reflects this negative sentiment, with investors increasingly betting on the appreciation of the euro and the Australian dollar. Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya noted that the overall outlook for the US dollar remains grim, though the situation could change with the release of new economic data that strengthens expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy.

Three major artificial intelligence systems—ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini—have selected the Pepe token as the leader in the meme coin market for 2026, citing its highest bullish potential. The virtual assistants assessed PEPE as the most likely candidate for a significant rally thanks to a combination of factors: its popularity among investors, an active user community, positive trends in the crypto market, and the development of the Solana blockchain, on which the meme coin is hosted.

ChatGPT emphasized that Pepe has evolved from a hype-driven asset into a stable market structure, having survived its first major cycle of growth followed by a slump. “Assets that remain afloat usually become centers of liquidity attraction when the cryptocurrency market heats up,” the system explained its selection. The meme coin ranks fourth in market capitalization with a volume of $1.7 billion, falling short of Dogecoin by a factor of 12.

Interestingly, the reliability of these AI systems' forecasts remains in question. When trading futures on digital assets, ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini incurred losses due to inaccurate predictions of price direction. However, the choice of Pepe makes sense: the token collapsed by 86% from its peak in 2025, and the current price of $0.000003942 indicates a low entry level. With a resumption of a bullish trend, such a market capitalization allows the meme coin to show exponential growth compared to higher-priced assets.

American investor and financier Jim Rogers stated that Western sanctions against Russia are not achieving their goals. “They don’t really help, except for the politicians who impose them,” Rogers said in an interview with RIA Novosti. In his opinion, lifting anti-Russian restrictions would be more beneficial for the global economy, as mutual trade would bring greater benefits to all parties involved.

Rogers' criticism comes at a time when the US administration is developing new sanctions measures. On December 17, 2025, it was reported that the White House is preparing expanded restrictions aimed at targeting vessels belonging to the so-called "shadow fleet." These vessels are used to transport Russian oil in violation of existing embargoes. The new sanctions would also impose penalties on traders and operators who assist in such activities.

Rogers' stance reflects the ongoing debate within the expert community regarding the effectiveness of the sanctions regime. Supporters of such measures argue that they put pressure on the Russian economy, while critics point to tepid results and potential side effects on global trade and energy markets. So, the question of the effectiveness of sanctions remains a subject of analysis by economists and political scientists.

Despite the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump in 2025, a majority of Americans are keeping their holiday spending on Christmas gifts unchanged. According to a survey conducted by QuestionPro for LendingTree, 55% of respondents do not plan to reduce their budgets for festive presents, while 45% acknowledge that the tariffs have impacted their purchasing decisions. The survey included responses from 2,032 US residents and was conducted between December 10 and 15, 2025.

The results suggest that tariffs have only a limited effect on consumer behavior, even though most gifts in the United States are produced domestically or contain imported components. Despite the overall rise in prices for everyday goods, holiday spending remains a priority for most American families. However, the fact that 45% of consumers have cut back on expenses represents a significant segment, suggesting an uneven impact of tariffs across income groups and regions.

Data reveals that the tariffs have had a bifurcated effect. While most consumers continue to spend as usual, certain demographic groups are more sensitive to rising prices. This division may reflect disparities in financial stability and the ability to absorb higher costs.

For the first time ever, gold crossed the historic threshold of $4,500 per troy ounce. During trading hours, the yellow metal peaked at $4,530.30 per ounce before closing at $4,514.25, marking a 1% increase compared to the previous day. Meanwhile, silver surged above $70 per ounce for the first time, climbing by nearly 2%, and platinum showed significant gains as well.

The rise in the prices of these precious metals is attributed to market expectations regarding further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Since gold and silver do not generate interest income, lower rates make them more appealing as savings assets. This shift reallocates capital from interest-bearing instruments to precious metals, thereby bolstering demand.

Since the beginning of 2025, gold has increased in value by over 70%, with silver showing comparable growth. According to Bloomberg, gold has set a historical high for the 50th time this year, which indicates consistent demand growth. Analysts anticipate that if the Fed maintains its accommodative monetary policy, precious metal prices will continue to enjoy gains.

Future price movements will depend on decisions made by central banks and macroeconomic data releases.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has emphasized the growing impact of artificial intelligence on the US economy. Investments in AI have been increasing throughout the year and are expected to become an even more significant driver of growth in 2026 and beyond. According to Moynihan, while AI is not the sole engine of the economy, its influence is "quite substantial."

Bank of America projects a steady growth rate of 2.4% for the US economy in 2026, up from an estimated 2% in 2025. Moynihan noted that the easing labor market appears to be a normalization of employment following an excessively tight period. He emphasized the strength of the US economy in a historical context and in comparison to global peers, attributing its resilience to a "capitalistic engine" driven by consumer activity.

The banker perceives minimal risk to the economy from potential overheating in the AI sector. Since the industry is concentrated among a narrow group of companies, any contraction would not significantly impact consumers or employment. Bank of America is also actively implementing augmented intelligence across all areas of its business. This involves leveraging AI to enhance efficiency. In financing AI projects, the bank carefully assesses financial leverage and the duration of data center usage contracts.

The Indian rupee, the worst-performing currency in Asia in 2025, faces a challenging start to 2026. Analysts at Nomura and S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast that the rupee will decline to 92 per dollar by the end of March. Further movement of the currency will largely depend on the resolution of a trade agreement between India and the United States, which has yet to be finalized.

Pressure on the rupee is exacerbated by a persistent outflow of foreign investments. Negotiations between the two countries have stalled despite efforts to stimulate investor interest. India, the fifth-largest economy in the world, is grappling with a dual challenge of stringent American tariffs on its exports and a significant capital flight.

However, there is a silver lining. The weakening rupee could make Indian exports more competitive. The US has imposed some of the highest tariffs in the world on Indian goods. This resulted in a 12% drop in exports to the American market in September, followed by an additional 8.5% decline in October. M.K. Stalin, the chief minister of Tamil Nadu, reported staggering losses for the region's textile industry due to these American tariffs.

The Bank of France has released updated forecasts indicating stable economic growth for France in the coming years. The central bank has revised its 2025 growth forecast upward to 0.9% from the previous 0.7%, reflecting an improvement in the short-term outlook for the national economy.

For 2026, the Bank of France forecasts a growth rate of 1.0%, which is an improvement from the previous estimate of 0.9%. The growth forecast for 2027 is also set at 1.0%, although this indicates a downtick from the prior figure of 1.1%. Besides, the central bank has provided its first forecast for 2028, predicting a growth rate of 1.1%, which points to a gradual acceleration in growth rates over the long term.

This modest yet stable growth trajectory is attributed to two key factors: the recovery of consumer spending and a revival in business investments. However, the realization of these positive scenarios largely depends on reducing political uncertainty, which is currently exerting some pressure on business activity. As the second-largest economy in the eurozone, France reveals potential for gradual acceleration from its current modest growth rates to a more robust expansion by 2028. 

A Bloomberg survey indicated a slight increase in economists' expectations for the growth of the US economy. The median estimate from 84 economists anticipates 2% GDP growth in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 1.9%. The forecast for 2025 has also been raised to 2% from 1.9%, reflecting a more optimistic view of economic activity.

Inflation expectations have decreased slightly. Economists now project consumer inflation at 2.8% in 2026, down from 2.9% in the previous survey. This suggests growing confidence that inflationary pressure will decline toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Expectations regarding interest rates have remained unchanged, with the upper limit of the Fed's rate expected to drop to 3.25% by the end of 2026, down from its current level of 3.75%.

ING Bank provides an alternative scenario: 2% GDP growth in 2025, followed by a slight slowdown to 1.9% in 2026, and an acceleration to 2.2% in 2027. ING expects inflation to stabilize at 2.8% in 2025-2026. Such forecasts reflect a consensus on a soft economic trajectory for the US, with a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure.

Expectations for US economic growth have been slightly revised upward in the latest survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg News. Meanwhile, forecasts for inflation and interest rates for the coming year remain largely unchanged.

According to the median estimate from the survey of 84 economists conducted between December 12 and 17, the US gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 1.9%. 

The growth forecast for the current year has also been adjusted upward, with economists now anticipating a 2% annual increase in GDP compared to the earlier estimate of 1.9%.

In contrast, inflation expectations have been slightly lowered. The forecast for consumer inflation in 2026 stands at 2.8% year-on-year, down from the previous estimate of 2.9%. This reflects growing confidence in the continued easing of price pressures and the Federal Reserve’s movement towards its target inflation rate.

Interest rate forecasts remain steady. Survey participants still expect the Fed’s key rate to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026. This is below the current rate of 3.75%, suggesting a gradual easing of monetary policy over the next two years.

In alternative forecasts, economists and strategists at ING predict 2% US GDP growth in 2025, followed by a slowdown to 1.9% in 2026, before possibly accelerating again to 2.2% in 2027. ING estimates that inflation in the US will remain at 2.8% for both 2025 and 2026.

Germany is on track to establish its largest budget deficit since the country's reunification, raising concerns at the Bundesbank. The regulator warns of the urgent need for measures to maintain financial discipline.

According to forecasts from Germany's central bank, the government budget deficit is expected to reach 4.8% of the economy by 2028, which would be the highest figure since 1995, shortly after the reunification of East and West Germany.

The anticipated widening of the deficit is linked to the government's plans to invest hundreds of billions of euros in infrastructure and defense in the coming years. This policy represents a notable departure from Germany's traditional focus on strict fiscal restraint.

The Bundesbank, serving as the economic advisor to the federal government, has warned that the projected deficit levels will contradict existing constitutional fiscal constraints. In its monthly report, the central bank noted that it remains unclear how the federal government intends to ensure compliance with national fiscal rules by 2028. The Bundesbank estimates that the increase in the deficit will primarily be driven by rising social expenditures, a series of tax reliefs, as well as additional transfer payments.

At the same time, the central bank also highlighted the potential positive economic effects of the planned expenditures. Investments in infrastructure and defense are expected to add about 1.3 percentage points to GDP between 2025 and 2028. Every invested euro is projected to generate approximately 70 cents of economic output.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that in 2026, the dynamics of stock markets will be determined not so much by traditional macroeconomic factors, but by a number of unresolved issues in the areas of technology, global trade, capital expenditures, and consumer behavior.

According to the bank, investors are already grappling with these issues, but their impact is not yet fully reflected in current stock prices.

A key question remains how widely artificial intelligence (AI) will spread beyond its early adopters. Despite hefty investments in AI, the next stage of development depends on its practical implementation, identifying which industries will be able to derive substantial benefits and which ones will only face rising costs.

Among the sectors where AI could significantly change operational methods, Morgan Stanley cites transportation, retail, media, and healthcare. Analysts note that future winners may differ from current market expectations.

A separate discussion concerns the development of data centers and infrastructure for AI. Investors are assessing whether the current surge in capital expenditures will translate into sustainable profits or whether constraints on electricity, price pressures, and uneven demand will limit growth potential.

Analysts emphasize that access to electricity and geographical location may prove to be as important as the technologies themselves in recognizing long-term market leaders.

Morgan Stanley also points to the strengthening multipolarity of global trade, which could lead to structural changes in the extraction of critical minerals and the placement of new manufacturing capacities. In a more fragmented global economy, supply chains, resource extraction, and industrial production are increasingly shaped by political decisions alongside economic factors.

This raises questions about the redistribution of investment flows and which companies will benefit from a more regionalized model of the global economy.

At the corporate level, investors continue to discuss the prospects for mergers and restructurings. With uneven deals and still high financing costs, companies may remain cautious, focusing on efficiency and balance sheet management.

Finally, analysts note the growing impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs on the food industry, retail, and healthcare. The discussion is shifting from the effectiveness of these medications to how deeply they are changing consumer habits and demand structures across various sectors.

Goldman Sachs has released an updated long-term forecast for commodity markets, predicting further growth in precious metal prices while anticipating sustained pressures on the oil sector due to broader economic trends. In its base-case scenario, the bank projects that gold prices will rise by 14% by December 2026, reaching $4,900 per ounce. Analysts attribute this expected increase to persistently high demand from central banks and a cyclical effect driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

In contrast, Goldman Sachs foresees continued downward pressure on the oil market. The bank predicts that Brent crude could decline to $56 per barrel, while WTI could drop to $52 per barrel. Analysts believe these price levels are necessary to restore balance between supply and demand, provided there are no major supply disruptions or additional production cuts from OPEC. The minimum price levels are expected to be reached by mid-2026, with a recovery in Brent prices to $80 per barrel forecasted no earlier than the end of 2028.

Despite the expected price consolidation in 2026, copper remains a key industrial metal in the bank's long-term strategy. Nearly half of the global demand for copper is driven by electrification, while the ability to increase production is limited.

In the European gas market, Goldman Sachs anticipates that prices will fall to €29 per MWh in 2026 and €20 per MWh in 2027. However, the bank cautions about the risks of sharp price fluctuations and potential power outages in the United States, primarily due to the rapid rise in electricity consumption from data centers and artificial intelligence projects, which is outpacing the addition of new generation capacity, including gas.

Silver prices hit record highs in early Asian trading on Monday, spurred by escalating geopolitical tensions that fueled demand for safe-haven assets.

The price of spot silver surged by 0.4% to reach an all-time high of $67.5325 per ounce. Meanwhile, February silver futures rose by 0.4% to settle at $67.860 per ounce. 

Silver has emerged as a leader in the precious metals market, with gold, platinum, and palladium prices following suit due to heightened investor interest in protective investments.

Spot gold increased by 0.2% to $4,348.30 per ounce, while spot platinum climbed by 0.2%, nearing the $2,000 mark. Spot palladium gained 0.7%, reaching $1,729.97 per ounce.

The surge in demand for safe-haven assets can be attributed to reports from last weekend regarding Israel’s plans to inform the United States of a potential new attack on Iran. This comes amid concerns that Tehran is advancing its nuclear program.

Earlier in 2025, Iran and Israel exchanged a series of strikes, culminating in US bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by a ceasefire between Tehran and Jerusalem.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are expected to meet in the US at the end of December. Analysts predict that Netanyahu will advocate for tougher measures against Iran.

Adding to the uncertainty, reports have emerged that the US is preparing to detain a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela amid rising tensions between Washington and Caracas. 

The Trump administration has intensified its scrutiny of Venezuela, accusing the country of using oil revenues to fund drug trafficking and illegal immigration to the US. Last week, Trump ordered the blocking of sanctioned oil tankers heading to and from Venezuela and suggested the possibility of launching a ground campaign against the South American nation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that Europe and the US are experiencing a similar process of losing economic weight in the global system. Europe's share of global GDP has declined from 25% in 1990 to 14% today, while the US has dropped from 22% to 14% over the same period. This reflects a substantial shift in the global economy rather than a regional downturn on one side of the Atlantic.

Von der Leyen identifies the rise of China as the primary reason for this shift. China's share of global GDP has increased from 4% in 1990 to 20% today—a remarkable fivefold increase. This tectonic shift in economic power explains the strategic realignments of the United States, which have clearly indicated a change in interests as China's position strengthens.

According to the European Commission president, the upheavals occur in the global economy not because the US revises its strategies but rather as a consequence of them. This is a symptom of a new geopolitical reality in which economic power is steadily moving eastward. Such an understanding highlights the need for Europe to adapt to this new balance of power and reassess its own economic and political strategies.

Cryptocurrency is gaining traction as a sought-after holiday gift, according to a study by the National Cryptocurrency Association and PayPal. A survey among 2020 Americans revealed that 24% of respondents plan to gift crypto assets to friends and family. This figure rises to 65% among digital asset holders. Half of cryptocurrency owners also express interest in receiving digital assets as gifts.

Crypto investors demonstrate a willingness to use digital assets as a means of payment: 82% are ready to pay with cryptocurrency in stores if it is accepted. Besides, 17% of respondents would prefer to receive cryptocurrency instead of a gift card as they believe in its potential for value appreciation, investment opportunities, ease of storage, speed of transfer, and the novelty of receiving something unusual.

Generation Z (ages 18–28) shows the highest interest in crypto gifts, with 45% of this demographic wanting to receive digital assets. The average gift value in the US is around $90, which is approximately 5,000 rubles in Russia. These figures indicate a growing recognition of cryptocurrencies not only as an investment tool but also as an alternative type of gift among the younger generation. 

Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence warn of a potential collapse in the price of Bitcoin. They predict it could dip to $10,000 by 2026, marking nearly a 90% decline from current levels. Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist, believes this scenario could lead to a contraction in the cryptocurrency market, shrinking it from $3 trillion to $300 billion. He attributes this decline to “post-inflation deflation” and an inevitable crash of highly speculative assets, most of which lack intrinsic value.

McGlone draws a troubling parallel to the stock market of 2007, when equities reached record highs, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the market subsequently plummeted by 50%, triggering the financial crisis of 2008. He cautions that Bitcoin could mirror that scenario, noting that the cryptocurrency has already lost about 25% of its value since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September.

Since reaching a peak of $126,000 in October, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 30%. David Morrison of Trade Nation adds that the market is “running out of steam” and could break through recent lows, potentially falling to $80,000. These forecasts reflect growing concerns over the overvaluation of cryptocurrencies and their vulnerability to shifts in the macroeconomic landscape.

The United States has threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on major European firms if Brussels continues with its tax regulations on American tech giants. The dispute centers on the EU’s policies regarding companies such as Google, Apple, Meta, X, and Amazon.

According to Bloomberg, the US has expressed its willingness to employ all available tools to counter these measures, which may include imposing tariffs and restrictions on foreign services. European companies such as Siemens, Spotify, DHL, and SAP could be at risk as Washington deems the European measures “unjustifiable” and “discriminatory.”

The conflict has intensified after the European Commission imposed a fine of $120 million on the X social media platform. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot characterized this move as “just the beginning” and commended the European Commission for its “tough measures.” This escalation highlights the growing rift between the US and the EU over the regulation of digital platforms and tax policies.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates a significant decrease in inflation during the first six months of 2026. During his appearance on Fox Business, he linked this expected relief to the closure of the US borders and a decline in rental prices. Bessent projected 3.5% GDP growth for 2025 and predicted that 2026 could be a “bountiful” year, provided the government remains operational.

The secretary forecasted tax returns in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion for the first quarter of 2026, which would amount to approximately $1,000 to $2,000 per household. He attributed current pressures to what he referred to as “Biden’s inflation” but remained optimistic about 2026. Bessent also mentioned that a Supreme Court decision on tariffs is expected in early January.

Regarding personnel decisions at the Federal Reserve, Bessent indicated that US President Donald Trump would announce a new head in early January. The official referred to Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as “highly qualified” candidates. He also voiced concerns that the Federal Reserve has become an “unelected institution that lost trust.”

Regarding international matters, the secretary stated that China has adhered to established agreements. At the same time, he emphasized that maintaining a $1 trillion trade surplus would be unsustainable for the country. Bessent also pledged to reduce the budget deficit by several hundred billion dollars in the current year.