The average retail petrol price in the UK has hit an unprecedented historical high, reaching 159.43 pence per litre — roughly $2.15 per litre. According to analysts, current pump prices are the highest in the domestic market since December 2022. The sharp rise in petrol prices followed the escalation of the US‑Iran armed conflict, which began on February 28, and the resulting severe disruption to oil supplies. In just a few months of active hostilities in the Middle East, the petrol price per litre for UK consumers has risen by more than 26.6 pence.

The sudden energy crisis has pushed up the financial burden on ordinary UK motorists. Filling a standard 55‑litre tank now costs the average driver £87.69, or $118.38 — nearly $20 more than the typical cost before the full‑scale crisis began. The diesel market looks even worse: filling the same 55‑litre tank now costs drivers £101.73, an increase of $31.62 since the first clashes.

Leading economic analysts voice highly worrying forecasts about the long‑term consequences of the current petroleum shortage for the UK’s financial system. Experts warn that even if a diplomatic settlement and an end to the US‑Iran confrontation come soon, inflation in the UK will continue to accelerate. Due to retail inertia and disrupted logistics chains, pump prices are virtually doomed to remain at peak levels throughout the summer, and severe macroeconomic effects will be felt domestically for many months to come.

Analysts at Rapidan Energy Group warned that the global economy risks facing a large‑scale crisis comparable in magnitude to the 2008 downturn. Such a negative scenario would materialize if the strategically important Strait of Hormuz remains completely closed to commercial shipping through August 2026. In that case, the imbalance between global oil supply and demand would deepen critically and crude inventories would continue to shrink worldwide. Advanced economies would be forced to actively draw down their strategic reserves in an attempt to offset the rapid rally in energy prices.

If this forecast comes true, the shortfall in global oil supply could reach six million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026. Experts note that the current market situation still looks less extreme than the shocks of the 1970s or the 2007–2008 financial collapse. However, as the war in Iran drags on, the risks of a new global economic collapse will inevitably grow. Analysts underscore that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in July, the crude oil price will eventually climb to $130 per barrel within the coming months.

The global energy market could enter a new phase of acute crisis as early as this coming summer, a risk previously flagged by Aberdeen’s chief economist Paul Diggle. The usual seasonal surge in demand for air conditioning and travel will add pressure to disrupted oil supplies from the Middle East. If the armed conflict in Iran becomes prolonged, the expert does not rule out a massive rise in petroleum prices to $180 per barrel by the end of the year.

China-based company Xiaomi has reported a 43% decline in net profit for the first quarter of 2026. According to Reuters, the electronics manufacturer’s total revenue fell by 11%. The primary cause of these disappointing financial results was cited by management as the high costs of purchasing memory chips, which heavily impacted the core business and profit margins of smartphone production.

According to research firm Omdia, Xiaomi shipped 33.8 million smartphones during the reporting period, marking a 19% decrease compared to the same period last year. This decline represents the sharpest drop among the five leading global mobile brands, and revenue from phone sales decreased by 12.5%. Analysts at Counterpoint Research anticipate unfavorable prospects for the market throughout 2026, as the memory chip shortage could extend until the end of 2027, compounded by geopolitical tension in the Middle East that dampens consumer sentiment.

In parallel, Xiaomi reported a downturn in its electric vehicle sector, delivering 80,856 vehicles over three months, 44.3% lower than fourth-quarter 2025 results, although this figure is still 6.6% higher than last year. The Russian market remains a vital segment for the brand. In 2025, 23.6 million smartphones were sold in Russia, generating revenue of 574 billion rubles, with Xiaomi joining Apple and Samsung in the top three most popular brands, at an average device price of 24,300 rubles.

The US dollar is reclaiming undisputed leadership in the global foreign exchange market, supported by a domestic artificial intelligence boom and persistently high energy prices. In a Friday note, Goldman Sachs observed that the macroeconomic divergence between the United States and the rest of the world is far larger than previously anticipated.

Global logistics disruptions and changing trade conditions are fundamentally reshaping the balance of power. While the US economy shows resilience, data from other regions point to a slowdown. April business activity data from China disappointed, and May PMIs in the eurozone continue to fall. Goldman Sachs conceded that its earlier call for a weaker dollar has not played out: every additional day of constraints to global commodity flows only strengthens the greenback.

Weakness in European currencies and a steady rise in the US dollar index directly reflect investor fears of a prolonged energy crisis in the EU driven by supply issues through the Strait of Hormuz. In Asia, meanwhile, the ultra‑strong dollar has already prompted emergency responses from central banks, forcing them into aggressive interventions.

Last week, Indonesia’s central bank tried to rescue the rupiah from a collapse by unexpectedly hiking its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%. The South Korean won is also taking heavy losses amid mass capital flight from the equity market, a trend that strong technology export volumes have so far failed to arrest.

Goldman Sachs anticipates that regulators in South Korea, India, and Taiwan will be forced to join a cycle of monetary tightening by year‑end. That remains their primary tool to curb capital outflows and inflation under a dominant dollar. Malaysia and Thailand are the likely exceptions, for now planning to keep interest rates unchanged.

The European Central Bank has strongly criticized plans to artificially stimulate the euro stablecoin market. The regulator warned EU finance ministers that the expansion of digital assets could undermine traditional bank lending and disrupt the mechanism for managing interest rates.

This confrontation was sparked by a report from Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, presented at an informal meeting of EU financial regulators in Cyprus. To challenge the dominance of the dollar in the cryptocurrency market, the authors proposed radical measures, including relaxing liquidity requirements for stablecoin issuers and granting them direct access to ECB funding.

ECB President Christine Lagarde and representatives from European central banks have voiced strong opposition to this initiative. In Frankfurt’s view, the primary threat lies in the potential capital flight from the traditional financial system.

The risk mechanism is straightforward. When a stablecoin is issued, the buyer’s real money is transferred to the accounts of the issuing company. This practice strips traditional banks of their main resource: a stable deposit base.

Regulators worry that a mass influx of funds into tokens could accelerate disintermediation, effectively removing banks from the intermediary chain. As a result, funding costs for credit institutions would rise sharply, loan issuance volumes would plummet, and the ECB would lose its leverage over market interest rates.

The euro risks further weakness against the US dollar amid the prolonged Strait of Hormuz crisis and the widening macroeconomic divergence between the two regions.

The US dollar is fundamentally supported by contrasting data: US macroeconomic metrics have recently beaten market expectations, while the European economy persistently generates negative macroeconomic data.

Although both regions face imported wartime inflation and rising government spending, the drivers of rising yields in sovereign bond markets are fundamentally different:

·        The US: Treasury yields are rising thanks to robust business activity and real economic expansion.

·        The eurozone: GDP growth is fading, yet German bund yields are not falling solely because of inflation fears.

Analysts warn of a growing risk of a monetary policy mistake by the European Central Bank. If the eurozone’s economic slowdown deepens while the ECB keeps interest rates on hold or raises them in response to incorrect triggers, this could cause a sharp flattening of the yield curve.

A decline in speculative positions in the dollar opens room for further dollar appreciation, especially if the Middle East conflict remains in a hot phase.

For the European stock market, a weak euro means the current trend should continue: exporters will outperform domestically oriented businesses. Analysts believe that only a complete resolution of the military conflict can restore investor interest in Europe’s cyclical, domestic companies and push the EUR/USD pair higher.

Shares of Chinese semiconductor companies posted double‑digit gains on Monday. The catalyst for the broad rally was Huawei’s announcement of a technological breakthrough in advanced chip design that would reduce China’s dependence on Western technologies amid US sanctions.

Huawei unveiled the concept of the Tau Scaling Law. The strategy shifts the focus away from physically shrinking transistors toward a radical increase in system efficiency.

The company announced an architecture called LogicFolding, which would debut in Kirin processors later this year. The innovation aims to shorten on‑chip interconnects. Huawei forecasts that the technology will enable it to reach transistor densities equivalent to an advanced 1.4‑nanometer process within five years.

Claims of technological self‑sufficiency triggered aggressive buying of domestic chipmakers’ shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. The best performers included:

Piotech Inc: +18%

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Co (SMIC): +17%

Cambricon Technologies: +10%

Qingdao Yunlu Advanced Materials: +9%

Hwatsing Technology: +8%

Institutional investor sentiment reflects an accelerated shift of China’s IT industry toward domestic resources. Against the backdrop of tightened US export controls on AI accelerators from Nvidia Corp., Chinese AI developers (including DeepSeek) have begun a broad migration to homegrown hardware solutions. Nowadays, Huawei’s Ascend AI chip lineup is the main domestic alternative to American processors.

Experts from the Center for European Reform have warned Germany’s leadership of the impending threat of a significant industrial decline and rising unemployment due to Beijing’s aggressive economic expansion. Analysts are declaring the onset of a period referred to as "China Shock 2.0," drawing direct parallels to events from 25 years ago in the United States when a surge of cheap Chinese imports devastated entire cities in the American Midwest, resulting in the loss of over 2.5 million jobs and sparking a severe social crisis.

Statistics show a rapid deterioration in the situation for the leading economy in the European Union. China’s trade surplus with Germany doubled between 2024 and 2025, soaring from $12 billion to $25 billion, ultimately creating a total trade imbalance of $94 billion. Major hubs of Germany’s automotive and heavy manufacturing industries, including Wolfsburg and Stuttgart, are now at the highest risk. The situation is further exacerbated by Beijing’s initiative of “10,000 little giants,” aimed at directly displacing German small- and medium-sized enterprises from international markets.

The authors of the report criticize Berlin for its indecisiveness and urge the government to abandon its passive approach to the achievements of its eastern competitor. They recommend that Germany immediately transition to a robust economic offense and support French initiatives to protect European markets from the influx of Chinese products. The relevance of these warnings is further underscored by recent domestic indicators. According to a report from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the country experienced a sharp decline in employment, with a reduction of 486,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2026, representing over 1% compared to the end of last year.

US President Donald Trump made a sharp statement, accusing Taiwan of stealing the American semiconductor industry. According to the US leader, the Taiwanese semiconductor sector has reached its current global scale primarily due to the lack of stringent tariffs from Washington in the past. Trump expressed confidence that timely tariff implementation could have prevented the mass offshoring of high-tech component manufacturing, ultimately resulting in the loss of a strategically important industrial sector for the United States.

International analysts and industry observers point out the historical inaccuracies in the US president’s position. Taiwan’s leading chip manufacturer, TSMC, was largely founded by engineer Morris Chang, who obtained American citizenship and worked for a quarter-century at Texas Instruments, a US-based company. Therefore, the rise of the Taiwanese giant was made possible by the experience gained within the American industry. Moreover, American businesses have voluntarily outsourced production to firms like TSMC over decades, particularly as domestic production costs have increased.

Despite significant global upheaval and economic instability caused by the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, Taiwan’s economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. In the first quarter of 2026, the island nation’s GDP grew by nearly 13.7% year-over-year, marking an absolute record for the Taiwanese economy and the highest growth rate since 1987.

The US Mint has officially announced that commemorative gold coins bearing the image of the incumbent President Donald Trump will not be produced in time for the celebratory date of July 4, 2026. These coins are intended to mark the upcoming 250th anniversary of the country’s independence. According to information provided by the agency to the US Department of Justice, the project’s implementation is being delayed by several months. These details were disclosed in an official government response to a lawsuit filed in Oregon seeking a complete ban on and blockage of the minting of such collectable pieces.

The main reason for the production delay is that the final design of the commemorative piece has still not received final approval from the overseeing authorities. Although the US Commission of Fine Arts approved the release concept in late March, the Mint has not yet begun the actual process of striking the precious metal. According to estimates from industry experts and journalists at Newsweek, the unique coins are unlikely to appear before December 2026 or even early 2027 due to bureaucratic procedures and the need for complex technical equipment setup.

The project is further complicated by ongoing legal proceedings in federal court, where plaintiffs from the numismatic community argue that placing the portrait of the incumbent head of state on the coins violates US law. Representatives of the Department of Justice, for their part, flatly reject these claims, citing a century-old historical precedent involving President Calvin Coolidge and the special limited status of the release. The series’ mintage is expected to be extremely small, and each coin is likely to command high collectable value on the market.

US President Donald Trump purchased shares of Kura Sushi USA Inc., the American unit of a major Japanese conveyor‑belt sushi restaurant chain, for an amount between $1 million and $5 million. The deal was concluded on February 2, 2026, and was disclosed in the latest filing with the US Office of Government Ethics.

The Kura Sushi chain, owned by a Japanese parent holding company and with a market capitalization of around $600 million, has been traded on the Nasdaq since August 2019. The brand gained wide popularity in Japan in 2025 after participating in the World Expo in Osaka, where its outlets offered dishes in a special international format. The publication of the US leader’s financial disclosure triggered a surge of investor interest in the asset, sending Kura Sushi shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange up 5.4%, the largest intraday gain since June 2025.

The restaurant sector investment was part of a large package of more than 3,700 trades executed by brokers on behalf of the president in the first quarter of 2026. Apart from that, stocks of leading technology giants were added to Trump’s portfolio. Representatives of the Trump Organization said the investment portfolio is under the full control of independent third‑party financial institutions through discretionary accounts, which they say entirely excludes personal involvement by the president or his family members in asset selection.

Despite official denials from the White House, the president’s transactions have prompted a wave of criticism from watchdogs and senators, who pointed to a potential conflict of interest stemming from the failure to place assets into a blind trust.

China’s General Administration of Customs reported a 26% increase in imports of Russian crude oil from January to April 2026 compared to the same period last year. The Russian Federation has successfully maintained its status as the largest exporter of crude to the Chinese market, outperforming other international trade participants in key metrics.

The total volume of Russian crude purchased by China over the last four months reached 40.83 million tons, which in monetary terms amounted to $20.4 billion, reflecting a 21.5% increase. In April 2026, Chinese importers acquired 8.97 million tons of oil, marking a 10.8% decrease in physical imports from Russia compared to March. However, the overall value of April shipments rose by 18.6% month-on-month, reaching $6.31 billion.

Saudi Arabia ranked second in China’s import structure, reducing its supply volumes by 10.3% to 22.97 million tons during this period. Brazil, in third place, increased its exports by 84%, delivering 20.91 million tons of crude to Chinese factories. Malaysia secured the fourth position with a delivery of 17.49 million tons, representing a 33% decrease, while Indonesia rounded out the top five, increasing shipments by 122 times to 14.1 million tons.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated recently that the Russian side is fully satisfied with the current cooperation on oil and gas supplies. The government representative announced plans for negotiations aimed at strengthening the partnership. During a visit by a government delegation to Beijing, Russia and China plan to discuss joint energy projects in detail.

According to Capital Economics, global oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel if the military conflict in Iran drags on. This extreme scenario would maintain record prices for North Sea crude through the end of 2027 and accelerate global inflation.

The baseline forecast envisions a recovery in Middle Eastern energy supplies in the near future. However, in a detrimental outcome, Iranian military attacks on regional energy infrastructure could continue, potentially driving Brent crude prices up to $130 per barrel by mid-2026. Such high prices could fuel global inflation rates by 2.5% in the latter half of 2026.

The prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key catalyst for the rapid increase in crude and fuel prices in international markets. Before hostilities began, this strategic logistical artery in the Middle East facilitated the transportation of a significant portion of global hydrocarbon flows. The closure of this maritime route quickly inflated the market value of crude, with quotes peaking at nearly $120 per barrel during periods of heightened tensions.

Currently, North Sea crude is trading in international markets at approximately $108–$109 per barrel. American investment bank Goldman Sachs also confirms the inevitability of Brent crude prices rising to around $150 per barrel in the event of a prolonged blockade of the strait. Reuters notes that these forecasts reflect growing concerns among major financial institutions regarding the stability of supply chains.

The US national debt has risen to $39.2 trillion as a result of the escalating armed conflict in the Middle East. The ongoing military engagement with Iran has led to an increase in federal treasury obligations by $450 billion due to rising defense spending and the expenses related to managing the budget deficit.

On May 12, 2026, Pentagon spokesperson Jules Hurst reported that Washington’s direct costs for military operations have approached $29 billion. Analyst Yuri Ichkitidze at Freedom Finance Global noted that total expenditures by the US Treasury for March and April 2026 amounted to nearly $1.2 trillion, with $146 billion allocated for national defense, 6% higher than the same period last year.

Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at the Finam financial group, characterized the growing debt as a durable long-term trend that will accelerate significantly if combat operations drag on. According to market expert Olga Gagaladze, the Middle Eastern crisis has triggered a spike in energy prices and heightened inflation rates. The rising cost of borrowing is making it increasingly burdensome for the US financial system to service its debt obligations.

In a prior address last November, US President Donald Trump defended his protectionist policies and criticized opponents of new import tariffs. The president asserted that these tariffs would generate additional revenue for the federal budget. According to the American leader, these levies would enable the United States to start paying down its accumulated sovereign debt in the medium term.

Total losses suffered by international businesses as a result of the military conflict in the Middle East reached $25 billion as of May 20, 2026. Reuters documented the scale of the financial damage based on an analysis of filings by publicly traded companies listed on stock exchanges in the US, Europe, and Asia.

The main reason for the deterioration in global business performance was the rapid rally in key commodities prices, including crude oil, refined products, gas, and liquefied natural gas. Sharp cost increases have forced corporate management worldwide to launch cost‑cutting programs. At least 279 large firms have publicly cited the Middle East escalation as a direct cause for implementing crisis measures, tightening budgets, and fizzling out production activity.

To stabilize their positions, multinational corporations are raising output prices, suspending dividend payments, and trimming staff. Company executives are being forced to place employees on unpaid leave, introduce special fuel surcharges, and seek government support. These management steps illustrate a decline in business activity across key sectors of global industry.

The US Department of Energy has ruled out the possibility of a full restoration of supplies from Middle Eastern terminals in the foreseeable future. The agency forecasts that disruptions to major oil flows will almost certainly persist at least through the end of 2026. Under these conditions, the aggregate damage to the global economy is expected to snowball steadily over the medium term.

Germany’s government has proven itself incapable of addressing the emerging shortage of automotive and aviation fuels, as well as of stopping the rapid rally in retail pump prices. The lingering armed conflict in the Persian Gulf has triggered a severe energy crisis in Europe’s strongest economy by effectively blocking key logistical routes for imported commodities.

The large‑scale distribution crisis is having a destructive effect on Germany’s domestic market, so that retail filling stations have to constantly raise gasoline and diesel prices. The country’s national aviation sector has also encountered a critical shortage of jet fuel due to disruptions in hydrocarbon supplies. Ralf Nimaier, head of the German Council for the Constitution and Sovereignty, stressed, “The authorities have done nothing to resolve the situation; no solution has been found yet.”

Against the backdrop of the worsening situation in the Persian Gulf, European countries are actively reshaping logistics chains to ensure national energy security. The results for the first four months of 2026 show a notable increase in total imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia into Spain. At the same time, European Union leaders, under an approved long‑term strategy, plan to eliminate dependence on key types of Russian energy resources entirely within the next year.

The usual inverse correlation between the US dollar and global oil prices has reached a historic high. An 11‑week conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of key shipping routes have disrupted the traditional negative relationship between these assets.

Bloomberg analysts found out that the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and Brent futures nowadays move in sync to the nth degree since the indicator was launched in 2005. Historically, a strong dollar weighs on oil prices because a stronger currency reduces demand for commodities. However, military actions in Iran have triggered a near‑vertical rise in both instruments simultaneously.

Brent has jumped 45% since late February — the time of the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which effectively shut down transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has already warned of a persistent “acute supply deficit” through at least October.

The abnormal positive correlation was recorded in early March. As a result, traditional market drivers — interest rate differentials and GDP data — have lost relevance for currency traders.

Macroeconomics has given way to geopolitics, high-impact news, and risk appetite. The entire market rhetoric now boils down to the oil chart, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, says.

Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING Bank, warns that until the stock market undergoes a major correction, global currency dynamics will remain tightly linked to oil shocks and central banks’ emergency responses to imported inflation.