On March 23, 2026, former US presidential advisor George Papadopoulos stated that Washington is interested in investing in the Nord Stream pipelines. According to him, energy cooperation between the states will be restored immediately after the official lifting of existing sanctions.

The projects have a combined capacity of 110 billion cubic meters of gas annually. "The Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, I think, are extremely important and very interesting projects for potential US investments," George Papadopoulos noted.

The infrastructure in the Baltic Sea remains non-operational following extensive damage in September 2022. The Nord Stream AG operator describes the damage to three pipelines as unprecedented, making it impossible to establish exact timelines for repairs without conducting additional engineering surveys.

The investigation into the incidents along the pipeline is ongoing, with authorities not ruling out the possibility of deliberate sabotage. The Prosecutor General's Office of Russia has initiated a criminal case regarding an act of international terrorism. The future operation of the facilities directly depends on the willingness of Western financial institutions to participate in the technological modernization of the damaged maritime hubs.

The single European currency has shown resilience to external shocks thanks to a shift in market structure and reduced dependence on crude oil prices. According to a report from BofA Global Research, the ongoing euro’s performance is fundamentally different from the crisis of 2022.

Under the new financial paradigm, a currency’s valuation depends directly on natural gas prices, while oil’s influence has become statistically insignificant. Despite military tensions in the Middle East, the European gas market has maintained stability. That supports spot euro’s market quotes against a basket of G10 currencies and has prevented a large sell‑off.

Short‑term pressure in the currency options sector is driven by market positioning specifics rather than a deterioration in the eurozone’s energy fundamentals. Current euro’s selling runs counter to the capital flows seen at the start of 2026. Institutional investors attribute recent weeks’ volatility to technical factors rather than a genuine economic downturn.

Gas stocks in storage remain below seasonal norms, but gas prices avoided sharp spikes. This has helped avoid market panic. The euro’s further trajectory will depend on the euro zone’s ability to replenish reserves without triggering negative price dynamics. Traders are now focused on monitoring the energy balance as the main driver of the currency risk premium. 

Capital spending on artificial intelligence development will remain the main driver of global economic growth in 2026. According to a new macroeconomic report from BofA Global Research — the first in the “AI Matters” series — investments in AI infrastructure will add roughly 0.4 percentage points to US GDP growth this year. However, analysts caution that the economic contribution of these technologies may begin to fade in 2027, although aggressive budgets at hyperscale IT firms could prompt upward revisions to short‑term forecasts.

The global investment cycle has long since moved beyond the US market. The United States and China are fiercely competing for dominance in the sector, using fundamentally different economic models. Washington retains an edge by fostering advanced models that leverage dynamic private capital and a deep research base. Beijing, by contrast, relies on state‑led scaling, cheap electricity, and tight central control over critical minerals needed for hardware production.

The main beneficiaries of this superpower race are key nodes in the global supply chain. BofA maintains a strong forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth of about 8% in 2026, calling the expansion of the AI sector the island’s primary economic catalyst. Despite geopolitical tension in the region, global demand for high‑tech semiconductors remains buoyant. Structural gains from redirected capital flows are also accruing to Mexico and South Korea, which are becoming increasingly integrated into the production of data‑center hardware. The economic effect of neural networks is no longer a local Silicon Valley phenomenon.

As the initial phase of infrastructure investment wraps up, attention shifts to assessing real productivity. BofA analysts note that the second stage of the cycle will show whether AI sparks a fundamental transformation in the labor market or mainly delivers gradual business process improvements. Success will depend on the speed with which new tools are adopted across the corporate sector.

While risks of widespread job losses remain in some industries, the report’s authors stress that a severe “skills challenge” will be the defining global trend of the late 2020s, determining national competitiveness.

Experts suppose that the peak of the AI investment cycle has not passed yet. Capital continues to flow into data‑center construction and specialized chip development. In this environment, investors are focusing on advanced economies capable of maintaining their role as indispensable nodes in the new global technological architecture.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the second time in less than two weeks. The key factors behind this upward revision are prolonged disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and rising structural risks to global supply chains.

According to the bank's updated baseline scenario, transport volume through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at only 5% of normal levels for the next six weeks, followed by a gradual recovery in traffic over the subsequent month. This extended logistical disruption, combined with the high concentration of global production and reserve capacity, fundamentally changes market dynamics.

"A recognition of the risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity is likely to lead to structurally higher strategic stockpiling and long-dated prices," Daan Struyven, head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, noted.

In the short term, the bank expects the price rally to continue amid ongoing uncertainty. According to Struyven, quotes will rise until the market is convinced that a long-term shortage is unlikely. To curb demand and hedge against potential supply shortages, the market will require a "growing risk premium."

With new inputs considered, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the average price of Brent crude will reach $110 per barrel in March and April, up from a previous forecast of $98. This represents a sharp increase compared to levels in 2025.

The revision also impacted long-term benchmarks. The bank raised its average Brent price forecast for 2026 from $77 to $85 per barrel, expecting WTI to reach $79. Analysts explain that these changes reflect a deeper depletion of commercial inventories and a reassessment of effective reserve capacities in light of adapting to new geopolitical realities. Notably, just two weeks earlier, on March 11, Goldman had already increased its Q4 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI from $66 and $62 to $71 and $67, respectively.

Looking ahead to 2027, the bank predicts an average Brent price of $80 but emphasizes significant risks of exceeding this threshold. In extreme scenarios where flows through Hormuz remain severely constrained for an extended period, daily Brent prices could surpass their historical highs posted in 2008.

In a "severely adverse scenario," which assumes a sustained loss of Middle Eastern supply, oil prices could spike sharply before stabilizing around $115 per barrel by the end of 2026.

Global exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have fallen to their lowest levels in the past six months. The recent increase in global supply, supported by the introduction of new production capacities in the US and other countries, has been completely overshadowed by the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East.

According to shipping tracking data from Kpler, the 10-day moving average for LNG shipments has fallen by around 20% since the start of the month, dropping to 1.1 million tonnes. This is currently the lowest figure recorded since September last year.

Statistics indicate that the sharp decline in export deliveries is primarily driven by a logistics crisis in Qatar and, to a slightly lesser extent, in the United Arab Emirates. To deliver fuel to key buyers in Asian and European markets, LNG carriers from these countries must navigate the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. In the current conditions, commercial shipping in this waterway is effectively paralyzed.

Global LNG production showed steady and continuous growth throughout the past year, largely driven by the launch of new export projects in North America (the US and Canada). However, this positive trend has now been completely negated by the physical loss of Qatari volumes due to the transport blockade in the Persian Gulf.

Renewed volatility in the global natural gas market, driven by supply disruptions from Qatar, is creating significant bullish potential for European energy firms. According to a new Goldman Sachs report, the main beneficiaries will be players with a high share of spot-linked contracts and strong positions in LNG trading.

Damage to infrastructure in Ras-Laffan — which accounts for roughly 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity — has already pushed European gas prices up above €60/MWh. Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs has radically revised its commodity forecasts, raising expectations for European gas well above the market consensus. The bank cites long-term supply constraints compounded by logistical paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz. It also raised its Brent crude forecasts to $92.7/bbl for 2026 and $80.2/bbl for 2027.

Among the global oil and gas heavyweights, Goldman Sachs names Britain’s BP as its top pick. Analysts note the company’s strong LNG trading unit and a high share of spot‑linked contracts. BP’s key advantage in the current environment is that it has no direct assets in Qatar, allowing the corporation to profit from price rallies while avoiding operational risks in the unstable region.

The bank reminds investors that price shocks traditionally generate outsized trading profits. During the 2022 energy crisis, integrated gas divisions at oil majors posted record earnings. Goldman Sachs now forecasts a similar, if somewhat more moderate, increase in margins.

In the upstream (exploration & production) segment, Norway’s Vår Energi is named as the chief beneficiary. The company is highly exposed to European spot prices because of a large share of unhedged production. Other winners in a tightening market include Equinor ASA and Harbour Energy plc, though their upside is judged more modest.

The global supply-demand balance continues to deteriorate. Goldman Sachs estimates that about 19% of global LNG capacity is currently idled. That is provoking fierce price competition: Asian benchmarks are rising faster as buyers divert Atlantic-bound LNG cargoes toward the East.

The ongoing military conflict involving Iran is becoming a key factor in the accelerated transition of the global automotive industry to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). According to a report from Bank of America, the escalation in the Middle East and the threat of supply disruptions are radically changing the economics of vehicle ownership.

BofA analysts emphasize that the level of uncertainty remains high. Scenarios range from a swift ceasefire to a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the second half of 2026. In the event of a severe scenario involving damage to regional energy infrastructure, Brent crude prices could soar to $160–240 per barrel.

Such a spike in fuel prices would deal a crushing blow to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The inflation of operating costs makes electric vehicles the only viable choice in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO). According to the bank's calculations, the five-year savings from using an electric Volkswagen ID.3 compared to a gasoline-powered Volkswagen Golf in Europe already range from €2,500 to €8,500, depending on available subsidies.

BofA notes that the current shift in consumer preferences mirrors historical patterns seen during past oil shocks when buyers flocked to fuel-efficient vehicles. The main beneficiaries of the current crisis will be EV segment leaders such as Tesla Inc. and Chinese manufacturers. Next in line are traditional brands with a strong range of economical cars, including Renault SA, BMW AG, and Toyota Motor Corp.

In the short term, the financial impact on automakers will be limited. Most companies have active mechanisms for hedging commodity and electricity prices, and their supply chains have not yet been affected. The share of the Middle Eastern market in global sales is less than 1%, although luxury segment manufacturers such as Ferrari NV and Lamborghini have already suspended shipments to the region.

However, Bank of America warns that as current commodity hedges expire, a prolonged conflict could lead to uncontrollable cost inflation. Combined with a general weakening of consumer demand amid high oil prices, this makes geopolitical volatility the main long-term risk for the global automotive industry.

As of March 18, 2026, the total US debt stood at $39.03 trillion. According to a report from the US Department of the Treasury, the debt burden per capita has reached a historic high of $114,100.

The pace of government borrowing has significantly accelerated since the beginning of Donald Trump's second presidential term. Over the past year, the figure has increased by $2.25 trillion, surpassing the $38 trillion threshold in October. According to IMF forecasts, the debt burden is expected to continue rising in relation to the size of the national economy in the coming years.

Several economists link the current trading strategy of Washington to a desire to forcibly alter payment conditions with foreign creditors. As noted by Hans-Werner Sinn, former head of the Ifo Institute, the increase in tariffs is aimed at exchanging bonds with near-term maturities for 100-year bonds with low interest rates.

By the end of the current decade, debt is expected to reach 143.4% of gross domestic product. The rapid growth of liabilities contradicts the administration's pre-election statements regarding budget discipline. The increase in debt continues amid an aggressive tariff policy and a comprehensive reassessment of global economic relations. This dynamic heightens risks to the long-term stability of the country’s financial system.

Donald Trump’s administration acknowledged on March 19, 2026, that no military solution would be able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without a truce with Iran. Bloomberg reports that current tanker transits occur only on Tehran’s terms and depend on unofficial approval by Iranian authorities.

Security in the 48‑kilometre‑wide corridor remains threatened by asymmetric coastal defences. “We won’t risk sending commercial vessels until Iran’s mines, fast boats, and drones are neutralised,” Rapidan Energy Group President Bob McNally said. The limited coverage of escort air defences cannot effectively protect a large number of tankers in sync.  

Trump confirmed that even if Iran’s regular forces were defeated, the use of cheap drones would continue to threaten shipping. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have partially rerouted oil exports via pipelines to avoid the narrow sea lane. However, onshore infrastructure capacity cannot fully substitute the volumes shipped through the waterway.

The ongoing threat in the waters makes maritime transit in the region prohibitively expensive for carriers. “Iran only needs to sustain a level of risk that rules out safe passage,” Torbjørn Soltvedt, chief analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, noted. Tehran plans to set new rules of the game for the strait even after active hostilities end. 

During a meeting in Paris on March 17, 2026, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and French Finance Minister Roland Lescure confirmed their readiness to expand cooperation in the financial sector. This meeting followed Chinese-US trade negotiations held in the French capital on March 15-16.
The parties reaffirmed their commitment to the agreements made by Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron. As He Lifeng stated, Beijing intends to promote the sustainable development of bilateral relations by deepening economic exchanges. The French side acknowledged the importance of their strategic partnership with Beijing for implementing practical projects.
During his visit, He Lifeng briefed his French counterparts on the results of the consultations between China and the United States. Bilateral relations are developing based on the agreements signed during Macron's state visit to China in December 2025. The parties aim to strengthen the investment climate and stabilize trade flows between the two countries.
According to Xinhua, Beijing and Paris will continue to implement joint statements across a wide range of areas. The strengthening of ties occurs amid China's diplomatic efforts to diversify its foreign economic contacts and support global financial stability.

On March 19, the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade voted on a proposed trade deal with the United States. So, Brussels has unblocked the ratification process, provided that a special protective amendment is included to shield European interests from the policy volatility of Donald Trump.

Bloomberg reported that the agreement would not enter into force until Washington implements its commitments in full. Lawmakers reached the decision on the back of new investigations by US Trade Representative Jamison Greer into EU trade practices, which risk prompting increased tariff pressure.

The text agreed in July 2025 envisages the complete removal of tariffs on American industrial goods while capping tariffs on EU exports at 15%. Previous diplomatic tensions and US Supreme Court rulings had blocked the deal’s ratification.

European legislators are keen to avoid a full-blown trade war and to maintain Washington’s commitments on regional security. If the parliament approves the text in April 2026, the agreement will be sent to EU member states for final ratification. 

On March 19, 2026, European stock markets displayed volatile dynamics amid lingering geopolitical tension. The STOXX 600 index rose 0.48% amid concerns about shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks are trading on the back of uncertainty over the protection of key tanker routes and the risk of attacks on infrastructure.

Rising commodity prices drove capital into the energy sector. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 0.72%, supported by strength in Shell shares. Germany’s market grew 0.28% on positive expectations for regional utilities and energy companies.

France’s CAC 40 increased 0.58%, helped by oil-and-gas giant TotalEnergies. However, the airlines sector and luxury goods manufacturers faced pressure from high operating costs. Sectoral indices fell amid concerns about waning consumer activity and high inflation.

The technology sector traded in negative territory: ASML shares dropped about 1%. The biopharma segment was an exception, with Sartorius jumping 5% after updating its corporate strategy. Defence stocks also slipped as market participants took profits. 

On March 19, 2026, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi announced the return of a direct threat of a recession for the American economy. According to the agency's assessment, the persistence of high energy prices over the coming weeks would make an economic downturn in the United States nearly inevitable.

Macroeconomic prospects are worsening amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic. "Recession is once again a serious threat," Mark Zandi said, adding, "Every recession since WWII, save the pandemic recession, has been preceded by a spike in oil prices."

Prior to the onset of the military conflict with Iran, the agency's leading indicators suggested a 49% probability of a recession within a year. The current analytical model now assesses this risk at over 50% due to the negative impact of commodity prices on consumer purchasing power and inflation expectations.

The situation is further complicated by a slowdown in GDP growth, which was just 0.7% in the fourth quarter. Weak labor market performance and declining real household incomes undermine the resilience of the world's largest economy to external shocks from Middle Eastern destabilization.

Despite high domestic production levels, the American industry remains sensitive to global market volatility. The previous tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has already constrained growth potential, depriving the financial system of the necessary reserves to adapt to the new energy crisis.

Crude oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel in the near term amid a lack of diplomatic progress in the US‑Iran conflict. OCBC Bank says in a report that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain global supplies.

OCBC analysts forecast oil prices around $100 through mid‑2026. A return to previous levels is not expected before early 2027, as global logistics chains gradually recover.

The collapse of shipping in the region that accounts for about one‑fifth of global oil consumption is forcing Gulf producers to cut output. Tanker traffic through the strait has fallen to minimal levels due to security risks and mandatory inspections by Iranian forces. The current market situation is assessed as a “moderately severe” supply shock. The odds are very much in favor of a further rally.

Oil releases from international strategic reserves and the use of alternative pipelines could offset up to 10 million barrels per day. However, these measures are insufficient to cope with the shortfall if protracted shipment disruptions from Middle Eastern crude persist. Limited transit by individual vessels is not enough to fully stabilize the supply-demand balance. 

A sustained rally in oil prices could trigger a recession in the US by weakening consumer spending and tightening financial conditions. According to a Wells Fargo report, the US economy is on the verge of an energy shock amid sluggish job growth and headline inflation expected to exceed 3%.

Modeling confirms that a 50% surge in commodity costs cuts real household spending by about one percentage point. Such dynamics almost entirely offset the effect of existing tax breaks intended to stimulate domestic demand.

The report identifies a Brent price of $130 per barrel as a critical threshold for maintaining current consumption rates. If global oil prices remain at that level for several months, businesses and households will have to revise investment plans and cut hiring.

An energy shock turns into a downturn if it is persistent, and household income growth deteriorates further. Falling real wages drag down consumption, which ultimately leads to declines in investment in fixed capital.

Being a net energy exporter gives the US some resilience compared with import-dependent countries. Nevertheless, rising producer profits and investment in infrastructure will occur more slowly than the erosion of household purchasing power. 

On March 18, 2026, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that the S&P 500 index could fall to 6,300 points if macroeconomic indicators continue to weaken. The primary risk factors are high oil prices and geopolitical instability triggered by the military conflict with Iran.

The current decline in market quotes aligns with historical patterns observed during periods of major international upheaval. However, rising energy costs and overall uncertainty could hinder global growth and prompt the US Federal Reserve to delay monetary policy easing.

In a moderate shock scenario, the bank expects a contraction in stock valuation multiples amid market pessimism. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive long-term outlook for the stock market. The main supporting factor is corporate profits growth driven by substantial investments in the artificial intelligence sector.

Technological spending by American corporations will remain a fundamental driver of returns in the long run. Greater clarity regarding the Fed’s actions and the situation in the Middle East is anticipated by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the ongoing influence of AI on the economy may continue to exert pressure on asset market valuations.

On March 18, 2026, European Commissioner Dan Jorgensen officially rejected the proposal to resume purchases of Russian energy resources. According to TASS, the EU representative described calls to restore imports as a mistake and reaffirmed the bloc's commitment to completely ceasing Russian energy imports in the long term.

Jorgensen emphasized that the European Commission has taken a definitive stance on the region's future energy balance. As the EU commissioner noted, "The message is clear: in the future, we will not import a single molecule from Russia."

Earlier, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever characterized the current state of the European industry, particularly the chemical sector, as critical. According to his report, the number of closed enterprises in the industry has increased sixfold over the past four years. As a result of the energy crisis, Europe has lost 10% of its production capacity.

On March 14, 2026, Belgium's prime minister called for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine to save the economy. However, Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot criticized the initiative, accusing his colleague of undermining European solidarity and weakening the bloc's overall political strategy.

On March 11, 2026, executives from ExxonMobil and Chevron informed US President Donald Trump during a meeting at the White House about the risks of a global energy crisis. According to The Wall Street Journal, the primary threat identified is the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran amid an escalating military conflict.

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods pointed out that the combination of price volatility and a shortage of oil products would lead to a sharp increase in gasoline prices. He added that releasing strategic reserves might not be sufficient to overcome fuel shortages.

Industry representatives believe the only solution is to unblock transportation routes, which would require ending the joint US-Israeli operation in Iran. Due to supply disruptions, American refineries are already facing technological challenges.

Retail fuel prices in the United States are rising, having already surpassed $5 per gallon in California. In response to the crisis situation, Donald Trump has decided to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil.

However, some market participants doubt that these measures will stabilize global prices in the long term. Representatives of the oil sector claim that the regulatory tools available to the administration are inadequate to compensate for large-scale disruptions in supply through key maritime chokepoints.

US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said on March 18, 2026, that demand for American crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) has risen. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the military conflict in Iran has forced foreign importers to seek alternative sources of supply.

According to Bloomberg, the strongest interest in US resources is coming from Asia‑Pacific countries. “Japan and regional partners have stepped up requests to purchase crude from Alaska’s fields to diversify risk,” Burgum said.

The military operation has caused acute shortages of gasoline and household gas in India and Bangladesh. Against the backdrop of severe shipment disruptions through the strait, US energy firms are seeing an influx of export orders from South Asian states and other market participants.

Despite the benefits for the upstream sector, the situation has complicated operations at US refineries. Rising production costs have set the stage for a sharp increase in gasoline prices in the United States, industry representatives earlier notified President Donald Trump. 

Stablecoins are rapidly shedding their status as a niche tool for crypto traders and becoming a macro-economically significant financial instrument. A new report from BCA Research finds that digital tokens now serve as a key link between global payments, dollar liquidity, and the short‑maturity US Treasury market.

Analysts note that the market capitalization of stablecoins — digital assets pegged to fiat currencies (primarily the US dollar) — has exploded. While total supply was about $30 billion in 2020, that figure tops $300 billion nowadays. 

As stablecoin issuers must back tokens with real reserves, they have been channeling large amounts of capital into low-risk liquid instruments: US Treasury bills, reverse-repo agreements, and bank deposits. As a result, crypto companies have quietly become important marginal buyers of short-term US government debt. BCA notes that growing token issuance can directly affect short-term interest rates by supplying fresh capital to the market.

At the same time, the geography of stablecoin use is shifting. The technology is being adopted rapidly in emerging markets suffering from high inflation, currency depreciation, and strict capital controls. In these regions, the digital dollar is taking on the role of a store of value, giving households and businesses access to dollar-denominated financial services outside the traditional banking system.

This trend not only cements the dollar’s global dominance but also creates serious challenges for emerging-market governments by boosting capital flight and displacing national currencies.

Stablecoin expansion is also putting pressure on the traditional banking sector. BCA points out that flows into digital dollars are draining deposits from classic banks — especially low-yield transactional accounts — forcing lenders into tougher competition for funding sources.

Although stablecoins’ share of global payments and total financial assets is still relatively small, BCA is confident that clear regulation and greater institutional participation will multiply the economic impact of the digital dollar over the coming decade.

According to a recent analytical note from Goldman Sachs, a sharp increase in oil prices, triggered by the military conflict in Iran and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to cost the global economy approximately 0.3% in lost GDP. Alongside the slowdown in economic growth, high commodity prices will fuel global inflation throughout the coming year.

The investment bank estimates that the energy crisis will add between 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points to the overall level of global inflation. Core inflation, which is stripped of volatile energy and food prices, is expected to show a weaker reaction, rising by only 0.1–0.2 percentage points. These figures are the result of the bank’s revised forecasts, which were made after key oil and gas shipping routes were paralyzed.

Despite the negative outlook, Goldman Sachs economists emphasize that the current shock is fundamentally different from the inflation surge of 2021–2022. The impact is localized exclusively in energy markets and does not affect broader logistics chains, as was the case during the pandemic.

The dependency of major economies on non-energy goods from the Middle East is minimal. Non-hydrocarbon exports from Gulf countries account for only about 1% of global trade. This suggests that significant production disruptions and a global commodity shortage due to the Iranian conflict are not anticipated, and that inflationary pressure will largely be contained to energy prices.

However, Goldman Sachs warns of ongoing risks. If military actions transition into a prolonged phase, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, oil prices could continue to rise. Extended supply disruptions could significantly amplify the negative effects, making inflation more stubborn and adding to the pressure on global economic growth.