The S&P 500 index could finish 2026 even higher, posting a fourth consecutive bullish year despite mixed short-term signals, analysts say.

In a research note, a reputable think tank stated that there are strong grounds for a fourth consecutive positive year, citing its updated forecast for 2026. Analysts believe the end of 2025 created a favorable backdrop for the coming year, thanks to strengthening macroeconomic conditions.

Canaccord expects economic growth to accelerate moderately in 2026, inflation to remain under control, and the rate-cutting cycle to continue. Under these conditions, analysts reckon the odds are high that the S&P 500 is on track for a confident rise for a fourth straight year.

From a macroeconomic viewpoint, experts note that political instability in Venezuela could become an economic stimulus provided that the country with estimated reserves of around 300 billion barrels ramps up its oil supplies. Analysts also point to a slowly recovering housing market as an additional disinflationary factor that could restrain price growth in 2026.

Canaccord says earnings and economic forecasts also leave room for positive surprises. The firm notes that macro expectations at the start of the year tend to be conservative. The current consensus assumes 2% real GDP growth and 2.8% CPI inflation.

At the same time, tactical indicators send mixed signals. Canaccord’s faster indicators are in neutral territory, while the weekly stochastic and the NAAIM Exposure Index remain in overbought and elevated-optimism zones, indicating possible short-term volatility.

Taken together, these factors suggest the market’s path in 2026 may be uneven, but the overall bullish momentum, according to Canaccord Genuity, remains intact.

US federal prosecutors have opened an investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the renovation of the central bank's Washington headquarters.

The probe is being conducted by the US Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia. Investigators are examining whether Powell misled Congress about the scope and total cost of the renovation project. Prosecutors are reviewing the Fed chair’s public statements as well as documents related to project expenditures.

The inquiry adds another layer of pressure on Powell amid strained relations with the administration of President Donald Trump. The US leader has repeatedly criticized the Fed chief for refusing to pursue deeper interest rate cuts and has publicly raised questions about possible irregularities in the central bank's building renovation, allegations that Powell has denied.

In 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a total of 75 basis points, far less easing than Trump had sought. Powell defended his cautious approach, citing lingering inflation risks and uncertainty related to the administration's economic policies.

Trump is expected to accelerate an announcement on replacing Powell as Fed chair. Notably, Powell's term is set to expire in May. According to the president, he has settled on a candidate and intends to make his decision public soon.

Leading candidates to become the next Fed chief include White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Both support Trump’s call for more aggressive rate cuts.

Investors are discussing the so‑called "Donroe doctrine" as a potential basis for expanding US influence over oil‑producing states. This shift could have long-term implications for the value of companies that provide oilfield services.

The term is used by Bernstein analysts in the wake of comments by US President Donald Trump and is being framed as a modern analogue to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. The historical doctrine, laid out by President James Monroe, called for US neutrality in European conflicts and opposed further European colonization in the Western Hemisphere.

Bernstein notes that the scale of the original concept, described by historian Henry Kissinger as "all‑encompassing," could be applied to the current approach of the Trump administration, which analysts have provisionally labeled the "Donroe doctrine."

The report focuses primarily on Venezuela and Iran, where crude output remains well below historical levels. Venezuelan production is estimated at 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025 compared to 2.6 million barrels per day in 2016. Iran’s output is pegged at about 3.5 million barrels per day compared to roughly 6 million barrels per day in 1974.

Bernstein estimates that restoring output in both countries would require sustained investment. Analysts put incremental upstream spending at roughly $40 billion a year over the next decade, including about $27 billion annually for Venezuela and $13 billion for Iran.

As a result, global upstream capital expenditure could remain around $600 billion a year through 2035, above the estimated $560 billion in 2025.

Bernstein assesses that the near‑term impact on the oil‑service sector would be limited. Venezuela and Iran combined account for about 5% of Schlumberger’s revenue and less than 2% of revenue across the oil‑service companies covered in the analysis.

The firm does not expect a material revenue uplift for the sector in 2026 but stresses the potential long‑term implications if investments in those countries ramp up. Analysts add that investors have treated the oil‑service sector cautiously over the past four years, although interest has risen over the last three months.

The broker says the sector could benefit from "potential, albeit still highly uncertain," new opportunities in Venezuela and Iran. Companies that fit Bernstein’s criteria include Schlumberger, Tenaris, and Vallourec, which combine exposure to oilfield services, onshore operations, and an impact on the US market.

The report also examines possible effects on oil prices. Bernstein warns that beyond a potential short‑term rally, concerns about oversupply could re‑emerge in the medium term. The current global surplus is estimated at about 3.5 million barrels per day, and a possible production increase in Venezuela and Iran could add to that pressure.

Over the longer term, analysts note that abundant, cheap oil has historically supported global economic growth, with demand continuing to rise modestly even as oil intensity declines.

Bernstein underscores that current production levels in Venezuela and Iran remain "extremely low," creating potential opportunities for parts of the oil‑service sector, although political and economic prospects in both countries remain uncertain.

Gold prices surged to record highs during Asian trading on Monday amid escalating unrest in Iran, growing political pressure on the Federal Reserve and weak US employment data, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold jumped about 2% to a historic high of $4,601.17 per troy ounce. Later, the gain eased to 1.5%, with spot trading at $4,574.01 an ounce. US gold futures rose 2.5% to $4,612.04 an ounce.

Over the past week, gold gained more than 4%, supported by steady safe-haven demand amid high tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Another bullish factor was social clashes in Iran. Reports say more than 500 people have been killed in anti-government protests, increasing investor fears of broader regional instability.

Tensions flared up further after Tehran warned of possible strikes on US military bases if President Donald Trump intervenes in support of protesters. Trump said on Sunday the situation is being taken “very seriously,” and the military is studying potential options.

Gold also received support from political uncertainty in the US after the Department of Justice served subpoenas on the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the central bank had received grand-jury subpoenas related to his Senate testimony, stoking market concerns and reigniting debate over the regulator’s independence.

These events put pressure on the US dollar, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies and reinforcing the bullish momentum.

Economic data also helped drive the rally. On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls showed that the US public and private sectors added only 50,000 in December, missing expectations for a 66,000 increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, slightly below the 4.5% forecast.

The weak employment data confirmed signs of cooling in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue monetary easing into 2026, further supporting demand for gold. 

Chinese buyers have rejected offers to purchase Venezuelan crude amid US sanctions that constrain exports and push up prices. According to Bloomberg, Merey crude was being offered at a discount of $13 per barrel compared to ICE Brent, substantially higher than a month earlier, when the discount was $15. Supply disruptions forced sellers to raise prices for Merey, making it less attractive to Chinese importers.

China has traditionally been the largest purchaser of Venezuelan oil, which it uses extensively to produce bitumen for road surfacing. A drop in demand from the mainland adds further pressure on Venezuela’s exports by narrowing its market. US sanctions on tankers carrying Venezuelan crude and a campaign against the shadow fleet have reduced delivery options and raised logistical costs.

China’s refusal reflects plain economic logic. As the discount narrows, Venezuelan crude becomes less competitive compared to alternative sources. For Venezuela, losing its biggest buyer deepens the economic crisis tied to falling export revenues and constraints on oil sales.

US President Donald Trump said he intends to drive oil prices down to $50 a barrel, proposing a strategy that includes taking control of Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA. According to The Wall Street Journal, the US plans to obtain a stake in PDVSA’s management and to buy for resale a significant portion of its oil, including operations through joint ventures with Chevron.

Trump’s ambitious plan implies a large-scale restoration of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure with investments of around $100 billion. Control over the largest Latin American oil exporter would allow the US to scale up supplies and put pressure on global prices. Trump has emphasized that at this stage the US prioritizes rebuilding Venezuela’s infrastructure rather than intervening in the country’s domestic politics.

The strategy reflects basic economic logic: increasing oil supply in the world market lowers prices and supports consumer demand in the US. However, implementation depends on political stability in Venezuela and on American oil companies’ willingness to return to a region with a history of asset nationalizations. The $50-per-barrel target is well below current market prices and would require a substantial expansion of production.

President Donald Trump announced plans to enlist the largest US oil companies to invest billions of dollars in Venezuela’s infrastructure. Speaking at a press conference streamed on the White House’s YouTube channel, he said, “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies — the biggest anywhere in the world — go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure.”

Analysts estimate that it would require roughly $100 billion in investments to restore Venezuelan production to previous levels, or about $10 billion a year for at least a decade. Potential participants named include Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips, though companies are proceeding cautiously. In 2007, Venezuela nationalized its oil industry, forcing US corporations to leave the country and costing them billions of dollars. ConocoPhillips is still pursuing roughly $10 billion through legal channels.

Meanwhile, US oil firms are not rushing back, citing political uncertainty. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed confidence in Western companies’ interest in Venezuelan heavy crude oil, particularly given its scarcity in global markets and high utilization at Gulf Coast refineries. Even so, returning to the Venezuelan sector would be a long-term, high-risk undertaking.

Former US President Joe Biden has been awarded the largest government pension of any ex‑White House chief. According to The New York Post, Biden’s annual pension payments will total about $417,000, exceeding his salary while in office. The size of the payout is roughly double the pension of former President Barack Obama.

According to Demian Brady, vice president of the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, the pension level was made possible by Biden’s long political career. His extended service in public office resulted in a high payout, which allowed him to draw contributions from two pension funds in the first year after leaving the presidency. Notably, the presidential pension system in the United States provides substantial post‑office guarantees.

The question of Biden’s pension size comes amid political debate over his decision‑making capacity. President Donald Trump announced that he had nullified all documents signed by Biden using an autopen. Trump said that using the device calls into question Biden’s competence and ability to knowingly sign orders. The remark underscores the political tension between the administrations.

According to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Bitcoin helps the US dollar retain its reserve currency status by serving as a “check and balance” during times of economic uncertainty. Some investors shift into Bitcoin when budget deficits widen, inflation rises, and other stressors hit. In his view, this movement disciplines monetary policy and reduces the risk of a loss of confidence in the greenback.

Armstrong emphasized the importance of balancing inflation with US economic growth. He described an inflation rate of 2-3% as acceptable when accompanied by comparable GDP growth but warned that inflation outpacing growth would raise the risk of the dollar losing its reserve status. Such an outcome, he suggested, would be a serious blow to the American economy.

Armstrong also said that the first cryptocurrency “keeps the dollar in check” by creating an alternative that limits the scope for Federal Reserve and regulatory decisions that could undermine trust in the US economy. “In a strange way, Bitcoin is helping extend the American experiment,” he concluded. The head of Coinbase previously argued that the first cryptocurrency is a more practical investment than gold due to its divisibility. He also did not rule out the possibility of the cryptocurrency one day serving as a reserve asset for governments.

In its report titled “Crypto Market Outlook for 2026,” Coinbase’s research division called the current phase a turning point for the industry. The division anticipates that cryptocurrencies will begin to enter the core of the financial sector. David Duong, head of global investment research at Coinbase Institutional, described the moment as an “exceptional and transformative period for the crypto ecosystem,” while adding that “the industry’s full potential is still far from realized.”

Duong clarified that the forecast is not predicated on a single speculative thesis. Instead, it focuses on how “policy clarity, institutional architecture, and broader participation” are creating conditions for the crypto market to converge with traditional finance. Analysts expect clearer global regulatory frameworks in 2026 to alter institutional approaches to strategy, risk management, and compliance.

The report also states that equity derivatives could become the preferred instrument for a new generation of retail traders. It also suggests that volumes in prediction markets could rise amid potential changes to US taxation. A separate section in the report is devoted to stablecoins, with Coinbase anticipating their expanded use in cross‑border settlement, remittances, and payroll services.

In December, spot trading volumes on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges fell to their lowest level in 15 months, retreating to figures last seen in September 2024. 

Over the month, centralized trading platforms processed roughly $1.13 trillion in crypto transactions, down 32% from November ($1.66 trillion) and 49% below October’s $2.23 trillion. 

Binance retained the largest share of trading turnover, with the volume of $367.35 billion, followed by ByBit, HTX, Gate, and Coinbase. 

The decline in activity on centralized exchanges in December reflects a combination of seasonal factors and subdued volatility, which constrained trader participation. Additional pressure on volumes came from capital outflows from centralized venues and a shift toward alternative order execution methods. 

Activity on decentralized exchanges also contracted in December. Aggregate DEX trading volume fell to $245 billion, with Uniswap maintaining the lead at about $60 billion for the month. 

Despite the overall pullback, the rising share of decentralized exchanges relative to centralized platforms points to a continuing structural shift toward self‑custody, greater transparency, and more capital‑efficient execution. 

At the same time, airdrops aimed at boosting turnover continue to draw incremental trading activity to individual venues.

In their latest research note, analysts at Bank of America urged clients to favor healthcare and real estate as the most attractive sectors through 2026. According to the note, those industries offer the best blend of valuation and momentum.

Under BofA’s “Momentum and Value” framework, healthcare ranks first and real estate third. The bank is keeping overweight positions in both sectors for investors with a roughly 12‑month horizon. Although technology is second in the model, the team treats it neutrally this month.

The note states that the appeal of healthcare and real estate is partly valuation-driven, as both sectors are trading at low multiples compared to their historical averages. However, it stresses that low prices alone are not a decisive factor. Each sector also benefits from above‑market earnings‑revision trends and a three‑month streak of outperformance, a combination the bank interprets as a healthy price‑quality balance.

By contrast, BofA counsels caution on consumer staples despite the bank’s longer‑term strategic overweight position. Analysts warn the sector looks increasingly like a “value trap”: it is cheap not because fundamentals are improving, but because prices have fallen faster than analysts have revised earnings.

Gold prices surged during Asian trading hours on Monday following a US military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro. This news sparked heightened demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in risk appetite.

Spot gold was up about 1% at $4,374.92 per ounce. US gold futures for March delivery rose 0.8% to settle at $4,381.10 per ounce.

Markets reacted after US officials confirmed that Maduro had been detained during a weekend raid in Caracas and transported to the United States to face previously filed criminal charges. 

The operation was the most direct US intervention in Venezuela in decades. It drew condemnation from several countries and left investors scrambling to assess its implications for energy markets and regional stability.

President Donald Trump called the arrest a “decisive step” against what he described as a criminal regime, saying the US intends to ensure “a safe and orderly transition” of power in Venezuela.

Although Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, years of sanctions and underinvestment have sharply curtailed production. US action has increased uncertainty over future oil supplies from the country.

For gold, the geopolitical shock has added to an already favorable backdrop: bets on US interest rate cuts this year, steady central bank purchases, and lingering worries about global growth continue to support the yellow metal. Among other precious metals, silver climbed by 2.4% to $74.32 per ounce, while platinum futures rose by 3.1% to $2,209.60 per ounce.

According to a senior executive at crypto exchange Kraken, the industry has entered an “era of tokenization,” where blockchain technology can move assets almost instantaneously between platforms, a process that can take days or even weeks in traditional financial infrastructure.

The executive argued that tokenization removes long-standing frictions in markets that have remained largely unchanged for more than half a century. Trading tokenized shares can settle in seconds and does not require protracted clearing cycles that tie up capital and risk, he added. 

As the expert asserts, tokenization can put a broad range of assets on-chain, from equities and precious metals to foreign currencies, giving investors and institutions new ways to allocate capital and tailor strategies.

The current market capitalization of tokenized assets is roughly $415 billion. Forecasts for market growth vary. Boston Consulting Group projects expansion to about $16 trillion by 2030, while McKinsey estimates that the market could approach $20 trillion but is unlikely to exceed that amount within the decade.

Financial regulators are also interested in tokenization. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has previously suggested that blockchain technology could be an effective way to modernize traditional capital markets, including those for equities and bonds.

The People’s Bank of China said it intends to pursue a more proactive macroeconomic policy and maintain an adequate level of liquidity in the financial system, while strengthening measures to prevent systemic risks in parallel.

These priorities are set out in the People’s Bank of China’s annual Financial Stability Report, published on Friday.

In the document, the regulator noted that it will push ahead with financial support to resolve the debt risks of financial platforms, and will also tighten macroprudential management of real estate sector financing as part of efforts to prevent systemic financial risks in key industries of the economy.

The central bank also said it intends to reduce the overall social cost of financing, while preserving the decisive role of market mechanisms in determining the exchange rate of the national currency.

The policy directions were further confirmed in a statement published on the People’s Bank of China’s official website at the same time as the release of the Financial Stability Report.