The US administration plans to eliminate an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods that was originally imposed in August 2025 due to India’s purchases of Russian oil, The Washington Post reported, citing a White House representative. That extra tariff was part of Washington’s pressure on New Delhi to curb its energy cooperation with Moscow.

Previously, Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with India that would reduce the United States’ retaliatory tariffs from 25% to 18%, effectively easing conditions for Indian exports. Until recently, it was uncertain whether the specific “oil” tariffs would be addressed separately. However, sources now indicate that the additional 25% tariff is slated for removal.

According to Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi allegedly agreed during a phone call to reduce purchases of Russian oil and partially shift to supplies from the US and potentially Venezuela. However, there has been no official confirmation of such commitments from the Indian side. Eliminating the punitive 25% tariff could mark a step toward normalizing trade relations and indicate that Washington is softening its stance on selecting energy partners. Nevertheless, future tariff policy will depend on actual changes in India’s energy import structure.

US President Donald Trump has decided to create a strategic reserve of critical minerals, allocating an initial budget of $12 billion for this purpose. The new venture, dubbed "Project Vault," will seek to purchase and store minerals essential for automakers, technology companies, and other enterprises. Essentially, it will function as a strategic petroleum reserve, but for mineral resources. The primary goal of the initiative is to shield American producers from supply disruptions and reduce their reliance on Chinese imports, focusing specifically on critical elements such as gallium and cobalt.

The announcement of these plans has elicited a positive reaction in stock markets, with shares of US companies involved in rare earth mining seeing a sharp uptick. This reflects investor expectations of increased domestic demand for mineral resources, bolstered by governmental support.

The United States already has a national reserve of critical minerals to meet the needs of the defense sector. However, it lacks a reserve for civilian use. Project Vault aims to address this gap. The White House administration has already signed cooperation agreements with Australia, Japan, Malaysia, and other countries for the supply and accumulation of critical minerals. In November, meanwhile, China assured Germany that supplies of critical raw materials and rare earth elements would remain stable, highlighting the escalating competition for control over global supply chains of strategic resources.

China’s President Xi Jinping published an article in the Communist Party journal Qiushi calling for the yuan to become a global reserve currency. Xi Jinping stressed that China needs a “powerful currency” capable of wide use in international trade, investment, currency markets, and reserve holdings. These remarks were originally made in 2024 when he addressed senior regional officials, but were only published on January 31, 2026.

Xi Jinping outlined the foundations needed to strengthen the yuan’s position: “a powerful central bank” able to manage monetary policy effectively; globally competitive financial institutions; and international financial centers that can “attract world capital and influence global price formation.” This comprehensive program reflects China’s desire to reshape the global financial system in line with its interests.

The timing of the article is notable: it appeared amid great uncertainty in global markets. Dollar weakness, the impending replacement of the Fed chairman, and geopolitical and trade tensions are prompting central banks to reassess their dependence on dollar assets. Kevin Lamm of Pantheon Macroeconomics says that Xi Jinping’s special focus on the yuan reflects “new breaches in the world order” and suggests that China feels that a change in the global order is more realistic than ever.

However, China’s ambitions encounter hard financial realities. IMF data show that the yuan’s share of global reserves was only 1.93% by Q3 2025, making it the sixth most‑held currency among reserve assets. The US dollar still dominates with about a 57% share, though down from a historic 71% in 2000. The euro accounts for roughly 20%. Moving from its current position to full reserve‑currency status will require not only ambition but fundamental reforms in capital controls and greater openness of China’s financial markets.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that the company will continue its substantial investments in OpenAI, refuting reports of dissatisfaction with the ChatGPT developer’s strategy.

Speaking to reporters in Taipei on Saturday, Huang called such assertions “nonsense,” emphasizing that Nvidia still views OpenAI as one of the key players in the technology sector.

“We are going to make a huge investment in OpenAI. I believe in OpenAI, the work that they do is incredible, they are one of the most consequential companies of our time,” Huang declared.

In September, Nvidia announced plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. The potential deal was intended to provide OpenAI with funding and access to cutting-edge graphic processors necessary to maintain a competitive edge in artificial intelligence.

Last week, however, The Wall Street Journal reported that negotiations had stalled amid internal doubts over the deal’s terms. According to the media outlet, Huang indicated in private conversations with industry participants that previously discussed investment parameters were nonbinding and not final.

The WSJ also reported that Huang expressed concerns about the level of management discipline at OpenAI, as well as growing competition from Google and Anthropic.

In response to these reports, Huang confirmed Nvidia’s participation in the current investment round for OpenAI. He stated that this round is being formed under the leadership of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and Nvidia intends to commit a “significant amount” that could represent the company’s largest investment in its history.

That said, Huang clarified that the total investment would not exceed $100 billion. He noted that OpenAI would announce the final size of the round at a later date.

The UK economy is edging closer to recession, which may force the Bank of England to adopt much more aggressive monetary easing.

Analysts note that key economic growth indicators in the UK remain weak. Besides, business activity and labor market data increasingly point to recessionary conditions. Experts say the economy is already showing signs of a substantial slowdown, despite only moderate job cuts so far.

Analysts highlight slowing corporate profit growth, which raises the risk of further layoffs. The UK labor market is deteriorating at an alarming pace and in many respects already looks recessionary. Experts warn that no improvements in macroeconomic data and the labor market could finally drag the economy into recession.

At the same time, inflationary pressure is easing. Wage growth has slowed, and service price dynamics are getting back on track, cementing expectations that core inflation could return to the Bank of England’s 2% target this year.

Against this backdrop, analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates by roughly 41 basis points in 2026, with cumulative easing possibly reaching 100 basis points in 2025/26, broadly in line with current market pricing.

For investors, analysts consider the UK stock market rather attractive despite domestic economic weakness. Stocks could be supported by lower borrowing costs, a weaker pound sterling, and a high share of international revenue for many companies. Over a short‑term horizon of three to six months, analysts prefer UK equities to those in the eurozone.

They judge the UK market still trades at a discount and does not look overbought. An additional source of support could be the energy sector: analysts note that political jitters in Iran could trigger a major supply shock in the oil market.

Given the significant weight of oil and gas companies in UK stock indices, the UK market has historically outperformed the eurozone during periods of rising oil prices. 

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood warned of a bubble risk in the gold market, pointing to the metal’s rapid rally and its outperformance relative to the US money supply.

She noted that the recent spike pushed gold above $5,600 per ounce and drove its aggregate market capitalization close to $40 trillion. The price then fell more than 3% to about $5,230 per ounce.

Wood believes the current rally reflects a disproportionate increase in gold’s value relative to the money supply during periods of macroeconomic instability. She drew attention to the ratio of gold’s market capitalization to the US M2 aggregate, which has approached historical highs.

The last time this measure reached such levels was during the Great Depression in the early 1930s, when the ratio hit 171%. By 2025, it had once again approached comparable territory. A second historical peak — around 125% — occurred in the early 1980s amid high inflation and tight monetary policy.

Cathie Wood stressed that current macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from both the 1930s and the inflationary 1970s. As evidence, she pointed to the 10‑year US Treasury yield, now at about 4.2%, down from peaks of about 5% at the end of 2023.

Market reaction to her comments was mixed. Some participants argue that the rise in gold market quotes is driven by ongoing monetary expansion and geopolitical uncertainty rather than speculative overheating. Others, however, questioned the relevance of M2 as a key metric in an increasingly digitalized financial system. 

The US dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2022 amid rising doubts among investors about the sustainability of American economic policy. During Donald Trump’s second presidential term, the Bloomberg Dollar Index has decreased by nearly 12%, reflecting a significant outflow of capital from US assets.

A strategy known as “devaluation trading” is gaining traction in markets, where investors are reducing exposure to the dollar and dollar-linked instruments. The main factor exerting pressure is the unpredictability of White House policy. This includes threats of new tariffs, pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and abrupt foreign policy initiatives that affect relations with US allies.

Despite official statements affirming a commitment to a strong dollar, markets increasingly assume that a weaker currency is effectively viewed by the administration as a permissible tool for supporting exports. The president has previously stated that the current exchange rate level is “excellent,” further fueling these expectations.

Amid this backdrop, capital is being redistributed into alternative assets. Emerging markets have had their best start to the year since 2012, while the volume of hedging against further dollar weakness has reached record levels, indicating a rise in defensive strategies among investors.

“The era of automatic dollar accumulation is over,” PIMCO’s Pramol Dhawan said, characterizing current trends as a structural shift in investment regimes.

The dollar’s slide temporarily paused on Friday following reports of Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the next Fed chair. Despite his recent statements aligning closely with the White House’s position, Warsh is viewed by markets as a more conservative figure who is less inclined to aggressive rate cuts compared to other candidates.

Analysts warn that declining confidence among foreign investors poses a risk to the US debt market. With a federal budget deficit of about $1.8 trillion and total government debt approaching $39 trillion, the United States remains heavily dependent on demand for Treasury bonds. Continued outflows of foreign capital might force the government to raise yields, thereby exerting pressure on economic growth.

The Swiss franc, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset during periods of instability, has reached an 11‑year high against the dollar. As of early 2026, the currency has already appreciated by 3.5%, following a 12.7% surge in 2025. This rally is attributed to unpredictable US trade policy, doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence, and threats of military conflicts that direct capital into traditional safe havens.

However, a stronger franc is causing challenges for the Swiss economy. As Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel acknowledged at the forum in Davos, a rise in the currency complicates the regulator’s operations. Switzerland faces a unique problem: unlike its neighboring countries, which are contending with inflation, Switzerland risks deflation. A strengthening franc lowers import prices and puts pressure on exporters, potentially forcing the central bank to revert to negative interest rates that were lifted in 2022.

Regulators have two intervention tools at their disposal. The first is to return to negative rates, a move that would be economically painful. The second involves currency interventions, although these carry significant political risks. The Trump administration previously imposed tariffs of 39% against Switzerland, accusing the country of currency manipulation. Later, the tariffs were reduced to 15%. Any active currency interventions could provoke renewed pressure from the White House and lead to fresh sanctions, leaving the central bank caught between economic and geopolitical interests.

Analysts are skeptical about the prospects for a weaker franc. Lloyd Harris, head of fixed income at Premier Miton Investors, describes the franc as “the strongest currency on earth” in the long term, supported by the stability of the Swiss economy, gold prices, and its status as a safe haven. This suggests that pressure on the franc will persist, thereby limiting regulators’ options for weakening it.

The global financial system has encountered a new source of risk: the Japanese government bond market, long regarded as a bastion of stability, is rapidly destabilizing. Last week, yields on Japan’s government bonds soared, putting traders around the world on edge. The yield on 40‑year bonds topped the 4% mark for the first time, and 30‑year yields swung by more than a quarter of a percentage point in a single session — a move that used to take months. The market capitalization of Japan’s sovereign yield curve plunged by $41 billion in one day.

The roots of the crisis lie in a mix of structural and political factors. Inflation has surpassed the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the fourth year running, undermining the case for zero interest rates. At the same time, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, preparing for snap elections on February 8, pledges large fiscal spending, inflating an already enormous public debt of 230% of GDP — a level incompatible with long‑term fiscal stability.

Turbulence in Tokyo is producing a ripple effect across global markets. Goldman Sachs estimates that every 10 basis points of higher Japanese yields adds 2–3 bps to rates in the US and other countries. Wild yen moves have sparked market nervousness, including at the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury. So, market participants are braced for currency intervention.

Potential repatriation of Japanese capital poses a grave risk to global markets. Japanese investors hold more than $5 trillion abroad, mainly in foreign government bonds. As domestic yields rise, Japanese debt becomes more attractive: 30‑year JGB yields have already surpassed those of Germany and China. Major players such as Sumitomo Mitsui have announced plans to revise portfolios and shift focus away from foreign bonds back to Japanese ones. A mass capital withdrawal by Japanese investors could crash US and European government bond markets, driving yields higher at a very inopportune point in the economic cycle.

Masayuki Koguchi of Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management described the situation as “a new era” and warned, “This is only the beginning. There is a chance we will see even stronger shocks.” That assessment signals market participants are ready for lingering high volatility rather than imminent stabilization.

US President Donald Trump commented on the dollar’s slump to a four‑year low, saying the American currency “is doing great” and “it’s fine.” He added that he did not advocate for the dollar’s steady fall in the exchange rate, preferring that the dollar “find its own level.” Trump reminded listeners that he has fiercely argued with China and Japan over their currency devaluations, highlighting an inconsistency in the US stance.

The dollar’s weakness is driven by a mix of factors eroding investor confidence in the US economy: expectations of further Fed rate cuts, uncertainty over tariff policy, political instability, including threats to the Fed’s independence, and a rising budget deficit. These systemic issues have created an environment in which investors are betting against the dollar.

Investors are overwhelmed by pessimism: traders have placed record bets on a dollar collapse, signaling deep disappointment with the greenback’s long‑term outlook. Trump’s stance, accepting the protracted weakness while insisting that the dollar is “in great shape”, underscores a contradiction between official rhetoric and the economic reality that traders and investors have already priced into the market.

Tom Lee, head of BitMine, says that the current weakness in Bitcoin and Ethereum is driven by the surge in gold and silver prices, but he insists the decline is temporary. In his view, the crypto market is still feeling the aftereffects of the large October crash, when many exchanges and market makers were forced to cut risk, putting pressure on liquidity and market quotes.

Tom Lee pointed to several positive shifts. First, traditional finance, tokenization, and blockchain are increasingly seen as a single promising direction. Second, cryptocurrencies are rising without heavy use of leverage, which makes moves slower but more sustainable. In addition, a weaker dollar and expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve create a favorable backdrop for both assets.

The current liquidity outflow from crypto is explained by a FOMO effect — investors fear missing out on gains in precious metals. However, Lee is confident the situation will change soon. Historically, pauses in gold and silver rallies have often triggered powerful surges in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Lee previously forecast that if Bitcoin reaches $250,000, Ether could approach $12,000. The analyst expects the crypto market to recover in the first half of 2026, viewing the current weakness as a temporary phase before a new bullish wave.

According to a survey by crypto exchange Coinbase, 75% of large investors consider Bitcoin undervalued under current market conditions. Only 25% called the price fair, and 4% said the leading cryptocurrency is overvalued. More than 60% of respondents have maintained or scaled up their Bitcoin holdings since its all‑time high in October, despite the subsequent correction. 80% of investors plan to either keep their current positions unchanged or add to them, even if the market falls by 10%.

44% of large investors believe the crypto market is either in an accumulation phase or in a protracted bear trend. Such periods have historically preceded crypto rallies. This stance points to strategic optimism about the long‑term outlook for digital assets. Despite ongoing uncertainty about US monetary policy, Coinbase analysts expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates twice in 2026, creating favourable conditions for risky assets.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said that the latest Bitcoin slump has left it significantly undervalued relative to gold, which could soon lead to a trend reversal. The combination of factors, such as investor readiness to buy, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and asset undervaluation, sets the stage for a Bitcoin recovery in 2026.

State-owned Chinese company PetroChina has informed traders of its unwillingness to buy Venezuelan oil, despite the fact that the export of crude from Venezuela is now under US control. According to Reuters, PetroChina’s cautious approach suggests that the company aims to assess evolving market conditions more thoroughly. This implies that other Chinese buyers who previously acquired inexpensive Venezuelan crude will likely act similarly.

PetroChina, part of the CNPC group, was the largest purchaser of Venezuelan oil until 2019, when President Trump imposed sanctions. The current refusal by the Chinese company comes amid a reassessment of the price of Venezuelan crude. Trading houses Trafigura and Vitol have started selling oil at significantly higher prices. Compared to $15 in December, discounts to Brent crude have narrowed to just $5 per barrel. Experts consider the current price to be uncompetitive, as Venezuelan crude is losing ground in terms of price against Canadian and Iranian oil.

Traders believe that shipments of Venezuelan oil to China will plummet in February. The main buyers have been small private refiners for whom price has been a critical factor despite the risks associated with sanctions. As prices rise, demand collapses. In contrast, Russia intends to continue its cooperation. According to Sergey Melik-Bagdasarov, Russia's ambassador to Venezuela, the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro will not affect Russian oil companies' operations with Venezuelan enterprises. Furthermore, no one has suggested canceling agreements on crude production.

US President Donald Trump has vowed a “major retaliation” if European countries begin selling off American assets in response to his tariff threats. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump told Fox Business, “If they do that, well, go ahead. But if it happens, there will be major retaliation from us. And we hold all the cards.” The threat reflects the administration’s readiness for economic confrontation with Europe over issues related to Greenland and trade.

Speculation about a potential sell-off of US assets arose after Danish pension fund AkademikerPension announced plans to divest $100 million in US Treasury bonds. Meanwhile, Greenlandic fund SISA Pension is reviewing its investments in US equities. However, implementing a "Sell America" strategy could prove challenging, as most American assets are held by private funds, which are not subject to government control. Still, large holders like Norway's sovereign fund could potentially influence markets.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the significance of the Danish fund's asset sales, stating in Davos, “Denmark’s investment in US Treasury bonds, like Denmark itself, is irrelevant. They have been selling Treasury bonds for years.” Bessent's position highlights the administration's belief that Europeans are incapable of causing significant harm to US financial markets through asset divestment.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian exports to the United States if Canada signs a trade deal with China. Calling Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said that Canada was “very wrong” to allow China to increase imports of electric vehicles. The president noted, “If Canada makes a deal with China, a 100‑percent tariff will be immediately imposed on all Canadian goods.” Trump also quipped that he would like Canada to become the 51st US state.

The threat came against the backdrop of a major trade agreement between China and Canada announced last week. Prime Minister Carney visited Beijing for the first time in eight years, met with Xi Jinping, and agreed to scale down trade barriers. Under the deal, Canada will allow the import of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a tariff rate of about 6%, removing a previous 100% levy. China also offered visa‑free entry for Canadians and a planned reduction in tariffs on Canadian canola.

Trump’s stance demonstrates the administration’s readiness to economically isolate Canada if it moves out of America’s trade orbit. Such threats reflect the US desire to maintain dominance in the Western Hemisphere and to block the expansion of Chinese influence in North America. 

Sahra Wagenknecht, the leader of Germany’s BSW party, stated that the European Union’s ban on Russian gas supplies has sealed the EU’s own economic downturn. She argued that Brussels’ decision to impose a full ban on Russian gas signals a complete dependence on US fracking gas. Wagenknecht criticized the EU for its hypocrisy, saying the bloc “complains” about Trump’s imperialism while becoming wholly reliant on American energy supplies. “Whoever makes a worm of themselves shouldn't complain about being stepped on,” the official remarked.

The EU Council has finalized its decision to prohibit the import of liquefied natural gas from Russia, starting January 1, 2027, along with piped gas, effective September 30, 2027. Penalties for violating these bans include a minimum fine of €2.6 million for individuals and at least €40 million for companies. The decision reflects the EU’s determination to end its reliance on Russian energy amid the conflict in Ukraine.

Wagenknecht’s stance expresses skepticism regarding the EU’s energy security strategy. Her criticism highlights a real dilemma: by opting for American gas over Russian supplies, Europe remains reliant on external sources and risks losing its bargaining power. The ban on Russian gas exacerbates geopolitical tensions and could lead to higher energy prices for European consumers.

US President Donald Trump has confirmed the takeover of TikTok’s American division by a consortium of investors led by Oracle and Silver Lake. In a post on Truth Social, Trump thanked Vice President J.D. Vance and other administration officials for their help in arranging the purchase of the asset from its Chinese owners. Notably, the president also expressed gratitude to China’s President Xi Jinping, saying, “He could have taken a different path, but he did not, and we appreciate his decision.”

The deal, first reported in December 2025, provides that the investors will acquire 45% of TikTok’s US subsidiary. The joint venture will be responsible for data protection, algorithm security, content moderation, and software quality. Trump previously told young voters, “I saved TikTok, so you now owe me big,” pointing to the app’s role in his support among younger voters in the presidential campaign.

The story dates back to April 2024, when then‑President Joe Biden ordered Chinese company ByteDance to sell TikTok or cease the social network’s operations in the United States. After returning to the White House, Trump postponed a block, creating room for negotiations. The buyout reflects Washington’s effort to bring a Chinese digital asset under US control while preserving its functionality.