The People’s Bank of China said it intends to pursue a more proactive macroeconomic policy and maintain an adequate level of liquidity in the financial system, while strengthening measures to prevent systemic risks in parallel.

These priorities are set out in the People’s Bank of China’s annual Financial Stability Report, published on Friday.

In the document, the regulator noted that it will push ahead with financial support to resolve the debt risks of financial platforms, and will also tighten macroprudential management of real estate sector financing as part of efforts to prevent systemic financial risks in key industries of the economy.

The central bank also said it intends to reduce the overall social cost of financing, while preserving the decisive role of market mechanisms in determining the exchange rate of the national currency.

The policy directions were further confirmed in a statement published on the People’s Bank of China’s official website at the same time as the release of the Financial Stability Report. 

According to the latest estimates from investment strategists, the average target for the S&P 500 index at the end of 2026 stands at 7,555 points. Forecasts range from 7,000 to 8,100 points, implying bullish potential of about 9% from current levels.

Some forecasts exceed the consensus, pointing to levels around 7,700, which would represent nearly 11% growth. At the same time, analysts warn that the market could face a correction in the first half of 2026, especially if bond yields rise sharply amid concerns about overly accommodative monetary and fiscal policy.

Expectations for earnings remain the key source of optimism. Wall Street analysts suggest that S&P 500 earnings per share will reach $306 in 2026, up 12.5% from the current consensus estimate of $272.

Valuation metrics are likely to remain relatively stable. The forward P/E ratio is projected to stay close to its current level of about 22 by the end of 2026.

Goldman Sachs analysts cite several key drivers of earnings growth, including steady expansion of the US economy, a weaker dollar, and productivity gains linked to the adoption of artificial intelligence.

Beyond macroeconomic factors, the profitability of the index’s largest companies will continue to play a decisive role. The earnings of the seven largest constituents—Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta—account for about 25% of total S&P 500 profits.

Goldman Sachs predicts earnings per share of around $305 in 2026, revenue growth of 7%, and moderate margin expansion. Most of this growth is expected to come from the largest high-tech companies, which already generate roughly a quarter of the index’s total profits and are projected to increase their contribution further as investments in artificial intelligence scale up.

Taken together, these estimates form a consensus view that the market’s bullish momentum will persist through 2026, despite potential bouts of volatility along the way.

Strategists also note that sustained growth in AI investment, combined with healthy performance in other sectors, could trigger nearly 20% of sell-offs of the index’s largest stocks in 2026.

The S&P 500 closed the Christmas week at 6,929.94 points.

Gold has experienced its strongest annual growth since 1979, significantly outpacing the US stock market amidst geopolitical instability, declining interest rates, and a weakening dollar.

Gold futures traded in New York have surged by nearly 71% year-to-date, marking the best performance in 46 years. The last time such a powerful rally occurred was during the presidency of Jimmy Carter, when the world faced an energy crisis, high inflation, and heightened tensions in the Middle East.

This year, global uncertainty has escalated once more. Tariffs reshaping international trade, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, intermittent tensions between Israel and Iran, and US operations to detain oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela have created a challenging backdrop. In such an environment, investors traditionally flock to safe-haven assets, particularly gold.

Gold is viewed as a tool for preserving value during crises, inflation surges, and currency depreciation. According to World Gold Council senior market strategist Joe Cavatoni, uncertainty remains a defining characteristic of the global economy, making gold increasingly appealing as a strategic element for diversification and a source of stability.

One drawback of gold for some investors is its lack of fixed income, typical of bonds. However, in an environment of interest rate cuts delivered by the Federal Reserve, bond yields tend to fall, which enhances gold’s relative attractiveness.

Last week, the metal reached a historic milestone for the 50th time this year, with prices surpassing $4,500 per ounce for the first time. Moreover, analysts at JPMorgan expect gold to surpass $5,000 per ounce in 2026.

Gold’s 71% rise this year has vastly outperformed the S&P 500 index, which has added only 18%. For comparison, in 2024, gold futures gained 27%, while the S&P 500 climbed by 24%.

Expectations of further monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in 2026 continue to support gold prices. Additionally, the US dollar’s weakness has made gold more accessible to international investors.

High prices benefit not only jewelry companies and owners of gold ornaments but also major buyers. The increase in demand is being driven not only by individual investors acquiring bars but also by countries that are ramping up their significant gold purchases.

The yuan exceeded the psychologically important level of 7 per dollar for the first time since September 2024, amid expectations that the People's Bank of China would permit a gradual strengthening of the national currency to maintain confidence in financial markets.

Last week, the offshore yuan advanced by 0.2% to trade at 6.9964 per dollar. This movement was supported by the People's Bank of China's decision to set the official fixing at its highest level since September 2024.

The Chinese currency is on track for its best annual performance against the dollar in the past five years. Support for the yuan comes from the protracted weakness of the US dollar, capital inflows amid the recovery of China's stock market, and waning geopolitical tensions.

In recent months, Beijing has consistently used the fixing mechanism to facilitate a moderate strengthening of the currency, aiming to support the national currency without provoking extreme volatility in the foreign exchange market.

On the mainland exchanges, the yuan rose by 0.1% last week, reaching 7.0067 per dollar. The market was sensitive to dollar sell-offs, with major Chinese banks actively buying US dollars near the 7.006 level.

Despite the advance against the US dollar, some market participants believe the yuan remains undervalued, considering the trade-weighted exchange rate and ongoing deflationary trends in China's economy. According to estimates from Goldman Sachs, the currency is undervalued by about 25% relative to fundamental economic indicators.

The renminbi will likely maintain resilience in the range of 6.95 to 7 per dollar in the first half of the next year.

China has announced sanctions against 20 American defense companies and 10 executives in response to recent US arms sales to Taiwan, opting for a predominantly symbolic form of measures and avoiding large-scale escalation.

Among the companies targeted by the restrictions are Northrop Grumman Systems Corp., L3Harris Maritime Services, Boeing's St. Louis division, and Vantor, formerly known as Maxar Intelligence.

The sanctions include the freezing of any assets held by these companies in China and a ban on conducting business with Chinese organizations.

Restrictions have also been imposed against executives from the defense companies, including Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril Industries Inc., and Vantor's CEO Dan Smoot. Their assets in China are subject to freezing, and the individuals themselves are prohibited from making deals and entering mainland China, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.

These measures were a response to what Beijing characterized as a "large-scale" sale of American weapons to Taiwan. Last week, Washington approved an arms package worth up to $11 billion, which includes missiles, drones, and artillery systems.

In an accompanying statement, the Chinese Foreign Ministry warned that any actions crossing red lines in the Taiwan issue would be met with a decisive response, and that companies and individuals involved in the sale of arms to Taiwan would bear responsibility.

However, the actual impact of the announced sanctions is expected to be limited. Most of the companies and executives targeted by the restrictions have minimal operations in China, and some had previously been included on a reliable organizations list.

The market capitalization of silver reached $4.05 trillion, surpassing the value of Apple for the first time. According to the Companiesmarketcap web portal, silver now ranks third in the global capitalization rankings. Gold retains the top spot with an estimate of $31.393 trillion, followed by Nvidia ($4.606 trillion), while Apple and Alphabet ($3.810 trillion) have fallen to fourth and fifth places, respectively.

The market capitalization of silver is calculated by multiplying the current price by the total volume of mined metal—approximately 1.751 million metric tons. The portal notes that a significant portion of historically mined silver has been lost or destroyed due to industrial usage; thus, the calculations are approximate. Silver futures for delivery in March 2026 on the Comex exchange rose by 1.26%, reaching $72.03 per troy ounce.

The explosive growth of silver reflects global demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets. Since the beginning of 2025, the price of silver has soared by 148.38%, making it one of the most profitable assets of the year. This rally is driven by economic uncertainty, expectations of lower interest rates, and the increasing appeal of precious metals for portfolio diversification. 

The Russian ruble has displayed its strongest performance since 1994, surpassing major global currencies in 2025. According to Bloomberg, the ruble appreciated by 45% and entered the top 5 most profitable global assets, trading around 78 rubles per dollar at the year's end. This trend reflects structural changes in the Russian financial market.

The primary reason for the ruble's growth is the decrease in demand for foreign currency in Russia. For Russian investors, ruble-denominated assets have become more attractive due to the ongoing monetary policy of the central bank. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina noted at a press conference on December 19 that the need for foreign currency is decreasing due to import substitution measures, support for domestic producers, and the effects of the implemented monetary policy.

The strengthening of the ruble creates a favorable environment for Russian assets, but it also reflects structural shifts in the economy. Limitations on access to foreign investments and technologies are prompting a reorientation of capital towards the domestic market. The growing appeal of ruble-denominated assets indicates the success of the central bank's policy in stabilizing the exchange rate under sanctions pressure.

Bitcoin is falling behind precious metals as it is in a consolidation phase after failing to hold onto the $90,000 support level. According to CryptoQuant, short-term cryptocurrency holders are increasing selling pressure by liquidating positions at a loss. In contrast, gold and silver are experiencing steady growth fueled by economic uncertainty and investor expectations of lower interest rates.

The primary reason for this divergence lies in the market’s perception of these assets. While precious metals are viewed as safe-haven assets during uncertain times, Bitcoin is still regarded by major investors as a high-risk instrument. As concerns mount, financial players are reallocating capital into gold and government bonds, pushing cryptocurrency to the sidelines. As analysts at CryptoQuant emphasized, Bitcoin lacks the economic catalysts needed to establish sustainable growth, as demand has almost waned.

However, experts do not rule out a potential recovery for Bitcoin. If visible demand turns positive, the digital asset could align more closely with the performance of precious metals. Meanwhile, Peter Schiff, an economist and well-known proponent of gold investments, stated that the yellow metal has a better chance of reaching $1 million than the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.

As we enter 2026, global trade is facing new challenges following a transformative period over the past few years. Although 2025 showed relative resilience amid President Trump's tariff implementation, underlying changes are emerging: incoming shipments to the United States have decreased by 8%, while imports to Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India have shown robust growth.

Global supply chains are already adapting to the new tariff barriers. Shipping industry veteran John McCown noted that while container imports to the US rose by 15.2% in 2024, 2025 saw a reversal of this trend. “I believe 2026 will be the year of the tariff consequences,” he warned. The restructuring of supply routes is currently underway and could lead to additional costs and delays.

Two factors could significantly disrupt global supply chains in 2026. The first is the return of vessels to the Red Sea following a decrease in Houthi attacks and the implementation of a peace plan for Gaza in October. Carriers CMA CGM SA and A.P. Moller-Maersk have already begun sending ships to the region. Secondly, a potential acceleration of the US economy could trigger a sharp increase in inventory levels, overwhelming the capacities of the shipping industry, Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen cautioned.

Analysts have raised their forecast for gold, anticipating a price of $6,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2026 and $10,000 by the end of the decade. Ed Yardeni's think tank revised its estimates after gold solidified at around $4,500. At the beginning of 2025, analysts anticipated a range of $4,000 to $4,500, but the precious metal surpassed expectations, rising by 70% within a year and by 171% over three years.

Yardeni Research's forecast is much more optimistic than the consensus estimate from JPMorgan, which projects $5,055 per ounce in December 2026. The rally is supported by geopolitical tensions and expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates make non-yielding precious metals more attractive to investors as safe-haven assets.

Despite mixed short-term movements, most experts agree that gold will continue to increase in value in 2026 amid ongoing global uncertainty. However, the pace of growth may slow compared to the dynamics of 2025. The growth is driven by a combination of factors: accommodative monetary policies from central banks, concerns about geopolitical risks, and the drive for portfolio diversification towards traditional saving assets.

The US dollar is on track to end 2025 with its worst performance in eight years, having fallen by 8.2%. On December 23, the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, reaching its lowest point since October 3. If this downward trend continues, the US currency risks posting its worst annual result in at least two decades.

The primary factor behind the dollar's decline is investors’ expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance from the Federal Reserve compared to other major central banks. Lower interest rates make the greenback less appealing to investors seeking yield-bearing assets. Seasonal factors at the end of the year are also exerting pressure: reduced trading activity and fewer transactions are diminishing demand for the dollar. In this environment, alternative currencies are strengthening. Both the Canadian and Australian dollars have reached multi-month highs, while the Swedish krona has returned to levels not seen since early 2022.

The options market reflects this negative sentiment, with investors increasingly betting on the appreciation of the euro and the Australian dollar. Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya noted that the overall outlook for the US dollar remains grim, though the situation could change with the release of new economic data that strengthens expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy.

Three major artificial intelligence systems—ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini—have selected the Pepe token as the leader in the meme coin market for 2026, citing its highest bullish potential. The virtual assistants assessed PEPE as the most likely candidate for a significant rally thanks to a combination of factors: its popularity among investors, an active user community, positive trends in the crypto market, and the development of the Solana blockchain, on which the meme coin is hosted.

ChatGPT emphasized that Pepe has evolved from a hype-driven asset into a stable market structure, having survived its first major cycle of growth followed by a slump. “Assets that remain afloat usually become centers of liquidity attraction when the cryptocurrency market heats up,” the system explained its selection. The meme coin ranks fourth in market capitalization with a volume of $1.7 billion, falling short of Dogecoin by a factor of 12.

Interestingly, the reliability of these AI systems' forecasts remains in question. When trading futures on digital assets, ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini incurred losses due to inaccurate predictions of price direction. However, the choice of Pepe makes sense: the token collapsed by 86% from its peak in 2025, and the current price of $0.000003942 indicates a low entry level. With a resumption of a bullish trend, such a market capitalization allows the meme coin to show exponential growth compared to higher-priced assets.

American investor and financier Jim Rogers stated that Western sanctions against Russia are not achieving their goals. “They don’t really help, except for the politicians who impose them,” Rogers said in an interview with RIA Novosti. In his opinion, lifting anti-Russian restrictions would be more beneficial for the global economy, as mutual trade would bring greater benefits to all parties involved.

Rogers' criticism comes at a time when the US administration is developing new sanctions measures. On December 17, 2025, it was reported that the White House is preparing expanded restrictions aimed at targeting vessels belonging to the so-called "shadow fleet." These vessels are used to transport Russian oil in violation of existing embargoes. The new sanctions would also impose penalties on traders and operators who assist in such activities.

Rogers' stance reflects the ongoing debate within the expert community regarding the effectiveness of the sanctions regime. Supporters of such measures argue that they put pressure on the Russian economy, while critics point to tepid results and potential side effects on global trade and energy markets. So, the question of the effectiveness of sanctions remains a subject of analysis by economists and political scientists.

Despite the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump in 2025, a majority of Americans are keeping their holiday spending on Christmas gifts unchanged. According to a survey conducted by QuestionPro for LendingTree, 55% of respondents do not plan to reduce their budgets for festive presents, while 45% acknowledge that the tariffs have impacted their purchasing decisions. The survey included responses from 2,032 US residents and was conducted between December 10 and 15, 2025.

The results suggest that tariffs have only a limited effect on consumer behavior, even though most gifts in the United States are produced domestically or contain imported components. Despite the overall rise in prices for everyday goods, holiday spending remains a priority for most American families. However, the fact that 45% of consumers have cut back on expenses represents a significant segment, suggesting an uneven impact of tariffs across income groups and regions.

Data reveals that the tariffs have had a bifurcated effect. While most consumers continue to spend as usual, certain demographic groups are more sensitive to rising prices. This division may reflect disparities in financial stability and the ability to absorb higher costs.

For the first time ever, gold crossed the historic threshold of $4,500 per troy ounce. During trading hours, the yellow metal peaked at $4,530.30 per ounce before closing at $4,514.25, marking a 1% increase compared to the previous day. Meanwhile, silver surged above $70 per ounce for the first time, climbing by nearly 2%, and platinum showed significant gains as well.

The rise in the prices of these precious metals is attributed to market expectations regarding further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Since gold and silver do not generate interest income, lower rates make them more appealing as savings assets. This shift reallocates capital from interest-bearing instruments to precious metals, thereby bolstering demand.

Since the beginning of 2025, gold has increased in value by over 70%, with silver showing comparable growth. According to Bloomberg, gold has set a historical high for the 50th time this year, which indicates consistent demand growth. Analysts anticipate that if the Fed maintains its accommodative monetary policy, precious metal prices will continue to enjoy gains.

Future price movements will depend on decisions made by central banks and macroeconomic data releases.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has emphasized the growing impact of artificial intelligence on the US economy. Investments in AI have been increasing throughout the year and are expected to become an even more significant driver of growth in 2026 and beyond. According to Moynihan, while AI is not the sole engine of the economy, its influence is "quite substantial."

Bank of America projects a steady growth rate of 2.4% for the US economy in 2026, up from an estimated 2% in 2025. Moynihan noted that the easing labor market appears to be a normalization of employment following an excessively tight period. He emphasized the strength of the US economy in a historical context and in comparison to global peers, attributing its resilience to a "capitalistic engine" driven by consumer activity.

The banker perceives minimal risk to the economy from potential overheating in the AI sector. Since the industry is concentrated among a narrow group of companies, any contraction would not significantly impact consumers or employment. Bank of America is also actively implementing augmented intelligence across all areas of its business. This involves leveraging AI to enhance efficiency. In financing AI projects, the bank carefully assesses financial leverage and the duration of data center usage contracts.

The Indian rupee, the worst-performing currency in Asia in 2025, faces a challenging start to 2026. Analysts at Nomura and S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast that the rupee will decline to 92 per dollar by the end of March. Further movement of the currency will largely depend on the resolution of a trade agreement between India and the United States, which has yet to be finalized.

Pressure on the rupee is exacerbated by a persistent outflow of foreign investments. Negotiations between the two countries have stalled despite efforts to stimulate investor interest. India, the fifth-largest economy in the world, is grappling with a dual challenge of stringent American tariffs on its exports and a significant capital flight.

However, there is a silver lining. The weakening rupee could make Indian exports more competitive. The US has imposed some of the highest tariffs in the world on Indian goods. This resulted in a 12% drop in exports to the American market in September, followed by an additional 8.5% decline in October. M.K. Stalin, the chief minister of Tamil Nadu, reported staggering losses for the region's textile industry due to these American tariffs.

The Bank of France has released updated forecasts indicating stable economic growth for France in the coming years. The central bank has revised its 2025 growth forecast upward to 0.9% from the previous 0.7%, reflecting an improvement in the short-term outlook for the national economy.

For 2026, the Bank of France forecasts a growth rate of 1.0%, which is an improvement from the previous estimate of 0.9%. The growth forecast for 2027 is also set at 1.0%, although this indicates a downtick from the prior figure of 1.1%. Besides, the central bank has provided its first forecast for 2028, predicting a growth rate of 1.1%, which points to a gradual acceleration in growth rates over the long term.

This modest yet stable growth trajectory is attributed to two key factors: the recovery of consumer spending and a revival in business investments. However, the realization of these positive scenarios largely depends on reducing political uncertainty, which is currently exerting some pressure on business activity. As the second-largest economy in the eurozone, France reveals potential for gradual acceleration from its current modest growth rates to a more robust expansion by 2028. 

A Bloomberg survey indicated a slight increase in economists' expectations for the growth of the US economy. The median estimate from 84 economists anticipates 2% GDP growth in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 1.9%. The forecast for 2025 has also been raised to 2% from 1.9%, reflecting a more optimistic view of economic activity.

Inflation expectations have decreased slightly. Economists now project consumer inflation at 2.8% in 2026, down from 2.9% in the previous survey. This suggests growing confidence that inflationary pressure will decline toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Expectations regarding interest rates have remained unchanged, with the upper limit of the Fed's rate expected to drop to 3.25% by the end of 2026, down from its current level of 3.75%.

ING Bank provides an alternative scenario: 2% GDP growth in 2025, followed by a slight slowdown to 1.9% in 2026, and an acceleration to 2.2% in 2027. ING expects inflation to stabilize at 2.8% in 2025-2026. Such forecasts reflect a consensus on a soft economic trajectory for the US, with a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure.

Expectations for US economic growth have been slightly revised upward in the latest survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg News. Meanwhile, forecasts for inflation and interest rates for the coming year remain largely unchanged.

According to the median estimate from the survey of 84 economists conducted between December 12 and 17, the US gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 1.9%. 

The growth forecast for the current year has also been adjusted upward, with economists now anticipating a 2% annual increase in GDP compared to the earlier estimate of 1.9%.

In contrast, inflation expectations have been slightly lowered. The forecast for consumer inflation in 2026 stands at 2.8% year-on-year, down from the previous estimate of 2.9%. This reflects growing confidence in the continued easing of price pressures and the Federal Reserve’s movement towards its target inflation rate.

Interest rate forecasts remain steady. Survey participants still expect the Fed’s key rate to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026. This is below the current rate of 3.75%, suggesting a gradual easing of monetary policy over the next two years.

In alternative forecasts, economists and strategists at ING predict 2% US GDP growth in 2025, followed by a slowdown to 1.9% in 2026, before possibly accelerating again to 2.2% in 2027. ING estimates that inflation in the US will remain at 2.8% for both 2025 and 2026.

Germany is on track to establish its largest budget deficit since the country's reunification, raising concerns at the Bundesbank. The regulator warns of the urgent need for measures to maintain financial discipline.

According to forecasts from Germany's central bank, the government budget deficit is expected to reach 4.8% of the economy by 2028, which would be the highest figure since 1995, shortly after the reunification of East and West Germany.

The anticipated widening of the deficit is linked to the government's plans to invest hundreds of billions of euros in infrastructure and defense in the coming years. This policy represents a notable departure from Germany's traditional focus on strict fiscal restraint.

The Bundesbank, serving as the economic advisor to the federal government, has warned that the projected deficit levels will contradict existing constitutional fiscal constraints. In its monthly report, the central bank noted that it remains unclear how the federal government intends to ensure compliance with national fiscal rules by 2028. The Bundesbank estimates that the increase in the deficit will primarily be driven by rising social expenditures, a series of tax reliefs, as well as additional transfer payments.

At the same time, the central bank also highlighted the potential positive economic effects of the planned expenditures. Investments in infrastructure and defense are expected to add about 1.3 percentage points to GDP between 2025 and 2028. Every invested euro is projected to generate approximately 70 cents of economic output.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that in 2026, the dynamics of stock markets will be determined not so much by traditional macroeconomic factors, but by a number of unresolved issues in the areas of technology, global trade, capital expenditures, and consumer behavior.

According to the bank, investors are already grappling with these issues, but their impact is not yet fully reflected in current stock prices.

A key question remains how widely artificial intelligence (AI) will spread beyond its early adopters. Despite hefty investments in AI, the next stage of development depends on its practical implementation, identifying which industries will be able to derive substantial benefits and which ones will only face rising costs.

Among the sectors where AI could significantly change operational methods, Morgan Stanley cites transportation, retail, media, and healthcare. Analysts note that future winners may differ from current market expectations.

A separate discussion concerns the development of data centers and infrastructure for AI. Investors are assessing whether the current surge in capital expenditures will translate into sustainable profits or whether constraints on electricity, price pressures, and uneven demand will limit growth potential.

Analysts emphasize that access to electricity and geographical location may prove to be as important as the technologies themselves in recognizing long-term market leaders.

Morgan Stanley also points to the strengthening multipolarity of global trade, which could lead to structural changes in the extraction of critical minerals and the placement of new manufacturing capacities. In a more fragmented global economy, supply chains, resource extraction, and industrial production are increasingly shaped by political decisions alongside economic factors.

This raises questions about the redistribution of investment flows and which companies will benefit from a more regionalized model of the global economy.

At the corporate level, investors continue to discuss the prospects for mergers and restructurings. With uneven deals and still high financing costs, companies may remain cautious, focusing on efficiency and balance sheet management.

Finally, analysts note the growing impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs on the food industry, retail, and healthcare. The discussion is shifting from the effectiveness of these medications to how deeply they are changing consumer habits and demand structures across various sectors.

Goldman Sachs has released an updated long-term forecast for commodity markets, predicting further growth in precious metal prices while anticipating sustained pressures on the oil sector due to broader economic trends. In its base-case scenario, the bank projects that gold prices will rise by 14% by December 2026, reaching $4,900 per ounce. Analysts attribute this expected increase to persistently high demand from central banks and a cyclical effect driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

In contrast, Goldman Sachs foresees continued downward pressure on the oil market. The bank predicts that Brent crude could decline to $56 per barrel, while WTI could drop to $52 per barrel. Analysts believe these price levels are necessary to restore balance between supply and demand, provided there are no major supply disruptions or additional production cuts from OPEC. The minimum price levels are expected to be reached by mid-2026, with a recovery in Brent prices to $80 per barrel forecasted no earlier than the end of 2028.

Despite the expected price consolidation in 2026, copper remains a key industrial metal in the bank's long-term strategy. Nearly half of the global demand for copper is driven by electrification, while the ability to increase production is limited.

In the European gas market, Goldman Sachs anticipates that prices will fall to €29 per MWh in 2026 and €20 per MWh in 2027. However, the bank cautions about the risks of sharp price fluctuations and potential power outages in the United States, primarily due to the rapid rise in electricity consumption from data centers and artificial intelligence projects, which is outpacing the addition of new generation capacity, including gas.

Silver prices hit record highs in early Asian trading on Monday, spurred by escalating geopolitical tensions that fueled demand for safe-haven assets.

The price of spot silver surged by 0.4% to reach an all-time high of $67.5325 per ounce. Meanwhile, February silver futures rose by 0.4% to settle at $67.860 per ounce. 

Silver has emerged as a leader in the precious metals market, with gold, platinum, and palladium prices following suit due to heightened investor interest in protective investments.

Spot gold increased by 0.2% to $4,348.30 per ounce, while spot platinum climbed by 0.2%, nearing the $2,000 mark. Spot palladium gained 0.7%, reaching $1,729.97 per ounce.

The surge in demand for safe-haven assets can be attributed to reports from last weekend regarding Israel’s plans to inform the United States of a potential new attack on Iran. This comes amid concerns that Tehran is advancing its nuclear program.

Earlier in 2025, Iran and Israel exchanged a series of strikes, culminating in US bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by a ceasefire between Tehran and Jerusalem.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are expected to meet in the US at the end of December. Analysts predict that Netanyahu will advocate for tougher measures against Iran.

Adding to the uncertainty, reports have emerged that the US is preparing to detain a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela amid rising tensions between Washington and Caracas. 

The Trump administration has intensified its scrutiny of Venezuela, accusing the country of using oil revenues to fund drug trafficking and illegal immigration to the US. Last week, Trump ordered the blocking of sanctioned oil tankers heading to and from Venezuela and suggested the possibility of launching a ground campaign against the South American nation.