Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for the United Kingdom to 1.2% from 1.1%, reverting to its assessment from a month earlier after stronger‑than‑expected economic data.

In a note published last Friday, the bank said it now expects the UK economy to avoid a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025. The forecast implies 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth instead of the previously anticipated decline. This revision followed upward revisions for earlier months and a marked rebound in GDP in November.

According to November data, the services sector recovered from a 0.3% decline in October, while industrial production rose by 1.1% from the previous month.

Services sector activity was supported by gains in leisure (0.9%), information and communications (1.6%), and professional services (1.7%). In the industry sector, an additional driver was a 25% jump in motor vehicle output as production in the auto sector returned to normal levels.

At the same time, construction showed signs of weakness, with output falling by 1.3% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive monthly decline.

Looking to 2026, Deutsche Bank highlighted a number of supportive factors for the UK economy, including slower consumer price growth. Inflation is expected to approach target levels by spring, boosting real disposable incomes.

Other positive factors cited by the bank include accommodative lending conditions, an anticipated cut in the Bank of England’s policy rate, increased public spending, and government deregulatory measures.

Deutsche Bank maintained its forecast for the Bank of England’s policy rate to end 2026 at 3.25%, down from the current 3.75%.

Chinese stocks could enter a phase of “slow growth” amid market reforms aimed at reallocating household wealth from real estate to the stock market.

UBS reckons that the A‑stock market lagged leading global indices for more than a decade not because of weak economic growth but because of structural problems in the capital market system.

Key factors include a historical corporate focus on financing rather than boosting shareholder returns, a large share of state‑owned enterprises trading at a notable discount to private peers, and limited household participation in stock investments. This is reflected in a high risk premium on stocks.

UBS believes that a transition to sustainable, gradual equity‑market growth is strategically important for China. As the real estate market loses its role as households’ main store of wealth, stocks are expected to play a more significant role.

Steady strengthening of the stock market could support the “common prosperity” agenda, boost confidence in private companies, and channel capital into priority areas, including advanced manufacturing and technological self‑sufficiency.

A potential re‑rating of state‑owned enterprises could also ease pressure on pension systems by increasing the return on state capital.

Regulators are shifting focus to dividend policy, share‑buyback programs, disclosure standards, and market‑cap management to attract long‑term capital.

Another reform track aims to stimulate mergers and acquisitions to help firms scale up and improve competitiveness. Bigger changes in SOE governance could also narrow valuation gaps between the state and private sectors.

Liquidity conditions are expected to improve as authorities seek to restrain IPO activity and the sale of large share stakes while expanding participation by long‑term investors.

UBS also notes that state‑backed market purchases intended to smooth sharp declines provide an additional buffer against downswings.

The bank forecasts A‑share earnings growth accelerating to roughly 8% in 2026. Support for this growth could come from faster nominal GDP growth, easing producer‑price deflationary pressure, stimulative policy, and measures to curb overcapacity — all of which should help corporate revenues and margins.

Meanwhile, Chinese stocks rose about 6% in 2025.

UBS expects further market re‑rating amid stronger profit growth, a decline in the risk‑free rate, continued household reallocation of savings into equities, and steady progress on market reforms over the medium term.

The US Department of Energy is considering a plan to swap heavy Venezuelan crude for US medium sour crude to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Under the contemplated scheme, Venezuelan oil would be moved into storage tanks at an offshore oil terminal in Louisiana, after which it could be dispatched to refineries. As part of the exchange, companies supplying US medium sour sulfur crude would have the option of placing their barrels directly into SPR storage.

The US government has previously used oil-swap mechanisms to both release and acquire crude. In typical swap agreements, refiners temporarily draw crude from the reserve during supply disruptions or force majeure events, such as hurricanes, and subsequently return the full volume plus a premium in the form of additional barrels.

US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he would impose additional tariffs on goods from several European allies if the United States is not allowed to purchase Greenland. The statement sharply escalated the dispute over the future of the Arctic territory, which is under Danish control.

Protests took place in Denmark and Greenland on Saturday, with demonstrators opposing Trump’s demands and calling for Greenland to retain the right to determine its own future.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that the US would impose an additional 10% import tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom from February 1. These countries are already subject to tariff restrictions introduced earlier by Trump’s administration.

The president said that the tariffs would rise to 25% from June 1 and would remain in place until an agreement is reached that would allow the United States to acquire Greenland.

Trump has repeatedly said Greenland is of critical importance to US national security because of its strategic Arctic location and large mineral reserves. He has not ruled out the possibility of using force. This week, European countries deployed military personnel to the island at Denmark’s request, underscoring rising tensions over the territory.

Trump noted the actions of European countries, in his view, create an unacceptable and unsustainable level of risk. He added that the US is “immediately open to talks” with Denmark and other countries, noting decades of US support for Europe’s security.

Separately, the president denied reports that he had offered the post of Federal Reserve chair to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. Trump said those reports are not true.

He also said he plans to sue JPMorgan within the next two weeks, accusing the bank of “debanking” him after the events on January 6, 2021, on Capitol Hill.

The United States has completed its first sale of Venezuelan oil valued at approximately $500 million. According to Semafor, the primary account for holding the proceeds is in Qatar, and the funds are distributed across multiple bank accounts controlled by the US administration. Given the sanctions regime targeting Venezuela, Washington has selected Qatar as a neutral venue with a low risk of asset seizure.

The sale of Venezuelan crude oil reflects a strategic pivot in US policy toward the region. Control over oil revenues allows the American administration to influence how funds are spent and to steer them in line with its interests. Placing accounts in Qatar reduces the risk that capital could be blocked or intercepted by third countries or by the Venezuelan government.

US President Donald Trump said he had a phone call with Venezuelan presidential representative Delcy Rodriguez, describing the conversation as “long and productive.” This indicates ongoing talks between the US and Venezuelan authorities over terms of cooperation in the oil sector and revenue management. The successful sale of the first cargo shipment demonstrates the feasibility of a plan to monetize Venezuela’s energy resources.

Alibaba shares climbed 3.1% in premarket trading in the US after data showed the company increasing its dominance in China’s artificial‑intelligence and cloud‑computing market. According to a LatePost report, Alibaba Cloud captured roughly 35.8% of the AI‑cloud market in the first half of 2025, exceeding the combined share of the three nearest competitors. AI‑cloud revenue totaled ¥22.3 billion, positioning the company as a clear-cut leader.

The company said it is developing its Qwen app as a comprehensive AI agent that integrates Alibaba ecosystem services. Qwen offers features such as price comparison on Taobao, navigation via Amap and other services free of charge, unlike ChatGPT. Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong noted that a range of BABA apps, including Taobao and Alipay, will be integrated with Qwen for various use cases.

Jefferies forecasts the AI‑cloud industry revenue to skyrocket 149% year‑on‑year, with Alibaba holding a 40% share in 2025. The analyst expects Alibaba Cloud to account for 80% of the industry’s incremental revenue growth in 2026 and reach a 60% market share. If the high growth rate is maintained, the company could deliver triple‑digit growth next year.

Jan3 founder Samson Mow predicts that Elon Musk will seriously get involved with Bitcoin in 2026 and believes the cryptocurrency will rise to $1.33 million, potentially soaring by 1,367%. In his view, Bitcoin will outpace precious metals despite the stunning performance of gold ($4,549) and silver ($83) in December 2025. Mow also expects shares of Strategy, the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoins, to rally to $5,000 from the current $157.

Mow’s forecast is based on the belief that at least one country will soon issue bonds tied to Bitcoin. In June 2025, he suggested that the flagship cryptocurrency could surge to $1 million in 2025–2026. In September, he spoke of growing willingness among countries to deepen Bitcoin adoption. However, Musk’s involvement in Bitcoin has been inconsistent: in 2021, Tesla stopped accepting the cryptocurrency, citing environmental concerns, and in 2022, it sold 75% of its Bitcoin holdings.

Not all experts share Mow’s optimism. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone predicts Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 and even to $10,000 in 2026. VanEck expects $2.9 million by 2050, albeit on the condition that at least 5% of payments move to crypto. Such a range of forecasts reflects the high volatility and uncertainty of the crypto market.

The General Administration of Customs of China reported that trade between China and the United States fell by 18.7% year-over-year in 2025, reaching $559.74 billion. Shipments of Chinese goods to the US market declined by 20% to $420.05 billion, while imports from the US into China decreased by 14.6% to $139.69 billion. However, trade picked up in December, rising by nearly 3% to $45.1 billion, signaling some recovery in momentum at year‑end.

The composition of bilateral trade reflects complementary economies. China buys soybeans, cotton, corn, semiconductors, sport-utility vehicles, coking coal, copper, and copper ore from the US. In turn, the United States imports smartphones, computers, lithium-ion batteries, toys, plastic goods, CCTV cameras, household appliances, clothing, and footwear from China. From January through November 2025, bilateral trade dropped to $514.66 billion, marking a further decline of 2.7% in November alone.

The trade slump mirrors tensions in bilateral relations amid tariff battles and trade restrictions. The decline in Chinese exports has been greater than that of US shipments, indicating an asymmetric impact of trade barriers on the two economies. Experts warn that a sustained pullback in trade could weigh on employment and consumer prices in both countries.

The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar to its highest level in 32 months. According to Reuters, as of January 12, 2026, one dollar was trading at 7.0108 yuan. In 2025, the yuan advanced 4.5% against the US dollar, its best performance since 2022, driven by large‑scale conversion of exporters’ foreign‑currency receipts at year‑end.

The yuan’s appreciation reflects strong export activity from China. In December 2025, the renminbi reached a 14-month high of 7.06 yuan per dollar. The rise was driven by seasonal demand from exporters converting foreign‑currency revenues. The trend of the yuan strengthening is expected to spread through 2026, indicating China’s solid position in global markets.

The People’s Bank of China also supported the yuan’s rise: in October 2025, the regulator set the exchange rate at 7.0968 yuan per dollar, the highest since October 2024. This policy reflects the central bank’s confidence in economic dynamics and its ability to bolster the national currency. A stronger yuan is beneficial for Chinese consumers’ purchasing power but may complicate export conditions.

US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all goods from countries doing business with Iran. The declaration jeopardized the fragile trade truce with China, the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil. On Monday, Trump wrote on social media, “From now on, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a 25% tariff on all transactions with the United States.” However, he did not specify details on how the duties would be applied.

The threat came just months after the October agreement between Trump and Xi Jinping, which paused the trade war and granted the US access to Chinese rare earth elements. Following the truce, the average US tariff rate on Chinese goods fell from 40.8% to 30.8%. The new duties could nullify those accords and put Trump’s planned April visit to Beijing in doubt.

Beijing treated the threat as an act of pressure and vowed to take “all necessary measures.” Financial markets responded cautiously, with investors largely treating the move as mere rhetoric. According to Union Bancaire Privee analyst Vey‑Sern Ling, Trump is unlikely to risk unraveling the truce with China solely to exert pressure on Iran. Ling added that a tangible market reaction would only come if tankers carrying Iranian oil were physically intercepted.

The S&P 500 index could finish 2026 even higher, posting a fourth consecutive bullish year despite mixed short-term signals, analysts say.

In a research note, a reputable think tank stated that there are strong grounds for a fourth consecutive positive year, citing its updated forecast for 2026. Analysts believe the end of 2025 created a favorable backdrop for the coming year, thanks to strengthening macroeconomic conditions.

Canaccord expects economic growth to accelerate moderately in 2026, inflation to remain under control, and the rate-cutting cycle to continue. Under these conditions, analysts reckon the odds are high that the S&P 500 is on track for a confident rise for a fourth straight year.

From a macroeconomic viewpoint, experts note that political instability in Venezuela could become an economic stimulus provided that the country with estimated reserves of around 300 billion barrels ramps up its oil supplies. Analysts also point to a slowly recovering housing market as an additional disinflationary factor that could restrain price growth in 2026.

Canaccord says earnings and economic forecasts also leave room for positive surprises. The firm notes that macro expectations at the start of the year tend to be conservative. The current consensus assumes 2% real GDP growth and 2.8% CPI inflation.

At the same time, tactical indicators send mixed signals. Canaccord’s faster indicators are in neutral territory, while the weekly stochastic and the NAAIM Exposure Index remain in overbought and elevated-optimism zones, indicating possible short-term volatility.

Taken together, these factors suggest the market’s path in 2026 may be uneven, but the overall bullish momentum, according to Canaccord Genuity, remains intact.

US federal prosecutors have opened an investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the renovation of the central bank's Washington headquarters.

The probe is being conducted by the US Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia. Investigators are examining whether Powell misled Congress about the scope and total cost of the renovation project. Prosecutors are reviewing the Fed chair’s public statements as well as documents related to project expenditures.

The inquiry adds another layer of pressure on Powell amid strained relations with the administration of President Donald Trump. The US leader has repeatedly criticized the Fed chief for refusing to pursue deeper interest rate cuts and has publicly raised questions about possible irregularities in the central bank's building renovation, allegations that Powell has denied.

In 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a total of 75 basis points, far less easing than Trump had sought. Powell defended his cautious approach, citing lingering inflation risks and uncertainty related to the administration's economic policies.

Trump is expected to accelerate an announcement on replacing Powell as Fed chair. Notably, Powell's term is set to expire in May. According to the president, he has settled on a candidate and intends to make his decision public soon.

Leading candidates to become the next Fed chief include White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Both support Trump’s call for more aggressive rate cuts.

Investors are discussing the so‑called "Donroe doctrine" as a potential basis for expanding US influence over oil‑producing states. This shift could have long-term implications for the value of companies that provide oilfield services.

The term is used by Bernstein analysts in the wake of comments by US President Donald Trump and is being framed as a modern analogue to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. The historical doctrine, laid out by President James Monroe, called for US neutrality in European conflicts and opposed further European colonization in the Western Hemisphere.

Bernstein notes that the scale of the original concept, described by historian Henry Kissinger as "all‑encompassing," could be applied to the current approach of the Trump administration, which analysts have provisionally labeled the "Donroe doctrine."

The report focuses primarily on Venezuela and Iran, where crude output remains well below historical levels. Venezuelan production is estimated at 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025 compared to 2.6 million barrels per day in 2016. Iran’s output is pegged at about 3.5 million barrels per day compared to roughly 6 million barrels per day in 1974.

Bernstein estimates that restoring output in both countries would require sustained investment. Analysts put incremental upstream spending at roughly $40 billion a year over the next decade, including about $27 billion annually for Venezuela and $13 billion for Iran.

As a result, global upstream capital expenditure could remain around $600 billion a year through 2035, above the estimated $560 billion in 2025.

Bernstein assesses that the near‑term impact on the oil‑service sector would be limited. Venezuela and Iran combined account for about 5% of Schlumberger’s revenue and less than 2% of revenue across the oil‑service companies covered in the analysis.

The firm does not expect a material revenue uplift for the sector in 2026 but stresses the potential long‑term implications if investments in those countries ramp up. Analysts add that investors have treated the oil‑service sector cautiously over the past four years, although interest has risen over the last three months.

The broker says the sector could benefit from "potential, albeit still highly uncertain," new opportunities in Venezuela and Iran. Companies that fit Bernstein’s criteria include Schlumberger, Tenaris, and Vallourec, which combine exposure to oilfield services, onshore operations, and an impact on the US market.

The report also examines possible effects on oil prices. Bernstein warns that beyond a potential short‑term rally, concerns about oversupply could re‑emerge in the medium term. The current global surplus is estimated at about 3.5 million barrels per day, and a possible production increase in Venezuela and Iran could add to that pressure.

Over the longer term, analysts note that abundant, cheap oil has historically supported global economic growth, with demand continuing to rise modestly even as oil intensity declines.

Bernstein underscores that current production levels in Venezuela and Iran remain "extremely low," creating potential opportunities for parts of the oil‑service sector, although political and economic prospects in both countries remain uncertain.

Gold prices surged to record highs during Asian trading on Monday amid escalating unrest in Iran, growing political pressure on the Federal Reserve and weak US employment data, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold jumped about 2% to a historic high of $4,601.17 per troy ounce. Later, the gain eased to 1.5%, with spot trading at $4,574.01 an ounce. US gold futures rose 2.5% to $4,612.04 an ounce.

Over the past week, gold gained more than 4%, supported by steady safe-haven demand amid high tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Another bullish factor was social clashes in Iran. Reports say more than 500 people have been killed in anti-government protests, increasing investor fears of broader regional instability.

Tensions flared up further after Tehran warned of possible strikes on US military bases if President Donald Trump intervenes in support of protesters. Trump said on Sunday the situation is being taken “very seriously,” and the military is studying potential options.

Gold also received support from political uncertainty in the US after the Department of Justice served subpoenas on the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the central bank had received grand-jury subpoenas related to his Senate testimony, stoking market concerns and reigniting debate over the regulator’s independence.

These events put pressure on the US dollar, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies and reinforcing the bullish momentum.

Economic data also helped drive the rally. On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls showed that the US public and private sectors added only 50,000 in December, missing expectations for a 66,000 increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, slightly below the 4.5% forecast.

The weak employment data confirmed signs of cooling in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue monetary easing into 2026, further supporting demand for gold. 

Chinese buyers have rejected offers to purchase Venezuelan crude amid US sanctions that constrain exports and push up prices. According to Bloomberg, Merey crude was being offered at a discount of $13 per barrel compared to ICE Brent, substantially higher than a month earlier, when the discount was $15. Supply disruptions forced sellers to raise prices for Merey, making it less attractive to Chinese importers.

China has traditionally been the largest purchaser of Venezuelan oil, which it uses extensively to produce bitumen for road surfacing. A drop in demand from the mainland adds further pressure on Venezuela’s exports by narrowing its market. US sanctions on tankers carrying Venezuelan crude and a campaign against the shadow fleet have reduced delivery options and raised logistical costs.

China’s refusal reflects plain economic logic. As the discount narrows, Venezuelan crude becomes less competitive compared to alternative sources. For Venezuela, losing its biggest buyer deepens the economic crisis tied to falling export revenues and constraints on oil sales.

US President Donald Trump said he intends to drive oil prices down to $50 a barrel, proposing a strategy that includes taking control of Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA. According to The Wall Street Journal, the US plans to obtain a stake in PDVSA’s management and to buy for resale a significant portion of its oil, including operations through joint ventures with Chevron.

Trump’s ambitious plan implies a large-scale restoration of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure with investments of around $100 billion. Control over the largest Latin American oil exporter would allow the US to scale up supplies and put pressure on global prices. Trump has emphasized that at this stage the US prioritizes rebuilding Venezuela’s infrastructure rather than intervening in the country’s domestic politics.

The strategy reflects basic economic logic: increasing oil supply in the world market lowers prices and supports consumer demand in the US. However, implementation depends on political stability in Venezuela and on American oil companies’ willingness to return to a region with a history of asset nationalizations. The $50-per-barrel target is well below current market prices and would require a substantial expansion of production.

President Donald Trump announced plans to enlist the largest US oil companies to invest billions of dollars in Venezuela’s infrastructure. Speaking at a press conference streamed on the White House’s YouTube channel, he said, “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies — the biggest anywhere in the world — go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure.”

Analysts estimate that it would require roughly $100 billion in investments to restore Venezuelan production to previous levels, or about $10 billion a year for at least a decade. Potential participants named include Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips, though companies are proceeding cautiously. In 2007, Venezuela nationalized its oil industry, forcing US corporations to leave the country and costing them billions of dollars. ConocoPhillips is still pursuing roughly $10 billion through legal channels.

Meanwhile, US oil firms are not rushing back, citing political uncertainty. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed confidence in Western companies’ interest in Venezuelan heavy crude oil, particularly given its scarcity in global markets and high utilization at Gulf Coast refineries. Even so, returning to the Venezuelan sector would be a long-term, high-risk undertaking.