The United States and India are nearing a resolution to a longstanding trade dispute that has complicated relations between the two countries for years. US President Donald Trump announced that Washington may lower tariffs on Indian goods, expressing confidence that both sides are "fairly close" to signing a new agreement. This statement has sent important signals to global markets and businesses in both nations.

This year, Trump’s tariff policy has tightened, with duties on certain Indian exports rising to 50%. The primary catalyst was pressure on New Delhi to curb its purchases of Russian oil. In response, Indian companies reduced their crude imports from Moscow, paving the way for negotiations to thaw. The US has long criticized India’s high trade barriers, stating that they hinder American access to the market.

Recent weeks have seen a shift in tone. Instead of harsh accusations, there are now signs of optimism. According to Trump, India has indeed moved closer to meeting US demands, and a trade agreement is just a step away. Indian authorities are also cautiously optimistic, hopeful of concluding negotiations in the near future.

If an agreement is reached, a reduction in tariffs would mark a significant step toward easing tensions between the two countries. For businesses, this breakthrough could open new opportunities, while for the global economy, it could foster a more stable framework for cooperation.

US trade policy has dealt a serious blow to Japan’s economy. The country’s leading car manufacturers have lost nearly $10 billion in profits due to American tariffs, becoming collateral damage in the escalating global trade standoff. This downturn marks their first significant profit drop in years and underscores the sweeping impact of Washington’s policies on Japan’s export-driven industries.

Seven giants of the automotive world — Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru, and Suzuki — have all suffered an unprecedented slide in profitability. From April to September 2025, their combined profit fell to 2.1 trillion yen (about $13 billion). Compared to the same period a year earlier, that represents a 30-percent decline, revealing how dependent Japan’s automakers are on unobstructed access to the US market.

The fallout extends well beyond the auto sector. Japan’s economy contracted by 1.2% in the third quarter of 2025, a drop directly tied to shrinking exports under the weight of US tariffs. Export volumes fell 4% in the second and third quarters. For the world’s fourth-largest economy, this is a significant blow — one that threatens to dent economic growth for a prolonged period.

Economists broadly agree: US tariffs have inflicted serious damage on Japan. The country’s long-standing reliance on exporting high-tech and high-value goods has collided with new trade barriers that restrict access to the world’s largest consumer market. Without meaningful tariff relief, Japan’s exports — and its broader economic outlook — are likely to remain under pressure in the coming quarters.

Elon Musk has once again shared his vision of the future economy, suggesting that traditional money could disappear or undergo a radical transformation. Speaking at a Tesla shareholders’ meeting, the entrepreneur floated the possibility of using energy as a new form of currency. According to Musk, in the future, the measurement of value could be tied to the amount of available or produced electricity.

While his statement was delivered with a hint of irony, it aligns with Musk’s long-standing rhetoric about forthcoming shifts in global exchange systems. The idea of energy as a unit of account reflects broader expectations of a move from centralized financial institutions toward distributed, more universal systems of value exchange.

This concept aligns with Musk’s broader interests in energy, autonomous power generation, and cryptocurrencies. He has long championed solar panels, Powerwall battery storage, and infrastructure that can provide households and businesses with energy independence. Besides, Musk has repeatedly expressed support for digital assets, including Bitcoin and Dogecoin, underscoring his interest in alternative forms of currency.

Against the backdrop of global discussions about the future of money, including the development of central bank digital currencies and the recognition of cryptocurrencies, statements like Musk’s are seen not as fantasy but as scenarios actively considered by leading market players. If technological infrastructure allows for tracking, payment, and storage of “energy units”, for example, through resource tokenization, Musk’s idea could move from theory to practice.

The statement came shortly after Tesla shareholders approved the largest compensation package in history for Musk, valued at one trillion dollars. With a tongue-in-cheek remark suggesting that shareholders might want to “hold onto their Tesla shares,” Musk once again highlighted the growing role of technology and unconventional approaches in shaping the future economy.

Musk’s comments on the potential transformation of money should thus be viewed as part of a broader conversation about what will define value and exchange in a highly automated and decentralized world.

Washington stands on the brink of a major financial conflict after President Donald Trump issued a dire warning about the potentially catastrophic consequences of a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. If the imposed tariffs are deemed illegal, the United States could be forced to refund over $2 trillion, Trump stated on his Truth Social platform. He claimed that such payouts would directly jeopardize national security and undermine the country’s financial stability.

In August, an appellate court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs. This decision paves the way for a reassessment of the trade restrictions implemented during Trump’s first term. The matter is now under consideration by the Supreme Court, and the outcome could have far-reaching implications for the US budget and trade relations.

Trump asserted that tariff revenues actually exceed $2 trillion, making their repeal economically unfeasible. He accused opponents of attempting to downplay these figures to facilitate a decision against the White House. Previously, he labeled critics of trade barriers as incompetent, emphasizing that the tariffs had bolstered the economy, reduced inflation, and elevated the nation's standing on the international stage.

Amid mounting pressure from the judiciary, the White House may soon face a difficult choice between preserving trade tools and risking a financial blow to the budget. The Supreme Court’s ruling expected in the coming months will be a pivotal moment for the economic policy of the Trump administration.

The TRUMP memecoin has staged a remarkable recovery following a steep decline earlier this year. Since reaching a low of $1.50 in October, the price of the asset has skyrocketed by over 450%, trading above $8.30 in recent days.

Formally, the token has broken above the resistance level identified in a months-long descending wedge pattern, which is considered a bullish reversal signal in technical analysis. This breakout has been corroborated by increased trading volumes, indicating a renewed interest from investors after a prolonged period of declining liquidity.

Given the current technical conditions, analysts project that TRUMP could rise to $13 by the end of 2025. This target is based on the maximum height of the chart pattern added to the breakout point, which presents a potential rally of 70% from current levels.

Some optimistic analysts, including TrentyyX, a well-known crypto figure, project a possible recovery to even higher levels. They estimate that the asset could reach $16.50, the previous resistance zone established early last year.

Fundamental factors are also bolstering confidence in the token. The issuing company, Fight Fight Fight, has announced plans to acquire the US division of Republic. If the deal goes through, users will be able to use TRUMP as a means of payment within the platform's ecosystem. This could impart practical value to the token and extend its utility beyond mere speculative trading.

The shift of the memecoin into a broader payment ecosystem, alongside its potential functional integration, has heightened expectations among some investors for sustained growth. However, as with other assets in this category, increased volatility and short-term dependence on news remain significant risks.

Thus, TRUMP has received positive signals from both technical developments and the issuer's efforts to integrate into real-world infrastructure. If external support continues, achieving an additional 70% by the end of 2025 seems plausible.

Inflation in China showed faint signs of life in October, with consumer prices rising slightly and the decline in producer prices being less severe than anticipated. At first glance, this appears to be an improvement. However, in reality, it is more of a pause in an extended period of deflation.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index increased by 0.2% year-on-year, surpassing expectations for zero growth and significantly rebounding from the previous month’s 0.3% decline. On a monthly basis, the CPI also rose by 0.2%, marking its first positive result since June.

This uptick was bolstered by the Golden Week holiday and a revival in consumer spending, characterized by increased travel and purchases as citizens sought to embrace economic optimism. Demand surged further due to major retail events, such as Singles’ Day, which traditionally boosts sales.

Nevertheless, the broader context remains unchanged. China continues to teeter on the brink of deflation. Producer prices dropped by 2.1% year-on-year in October, which was slightly better than expected but still marked the 37th consecutive month of decline. Even temporary production restrictions have failed to shift the overall trend, as the industrial sector operates with minimal confidence.

Economists point out that domestic demand remains weak, retail prices are stagnant, and ongoing trade tensions with the United States are adding to the pressure on the economy.

Beijing has promised new stimulus measures and cautiously hinted at the possibility of expanding fiscal support. In addition, improved relations with Washington are expected to provide the economy with much-needed relief.

However, the data speaks for itself. While inflation may have returned, it is more of a statistical effect than a signal of genuine recovery.

Morgan Stanley does not foresee a wave of unemployment driven by artificial intelligence in the coming years. According to the bank’s analysts, while technology will advance rapidly, the labor market will collapse under its momentum.

The bank cites research by economist Anton Korinek of the University of Virginia, a leading expert on the economics of transformative AI. Analyst Stephen Byrd notes that several US developers are currently training AI models on computing power roughly ten times greater than before. If this pace continues, by 2026, we could see systems twice as intelligent as today’s.

Yet Morgan Stanley insists that this technological leap will not spell disaster for employment. Studies show that every economy retains roles requiring human judgment, flexibility, and creativity — qualities algorithms have yet to replicate.

The bank also underscores that automation does not just replace labor; it encourages capital growth, boosts productivity, and can ultimately raise wages. In other words, AI might not take away jobs but improve working conditions, provided the optimistic scenario plays out.

Analysts distinguish between two main paths of technological adoption: automation and augmentation. In the first case, AI performs tasks instead of humans; in the second, it helps them do those tasks better.
The more a profession relies on augmentation rather than replacement, the more resilient it is to disruption.

Morgan Stanley concludes that while AI is already reshaping the economy, there is still a long way from mass unemployment caused by machines. For now, AI threatens not human jobs, but merely the sense of competitiveness.

Tesla shareholders have given a resounding green light to what could become the largest executive pay package in corporate history — a performance-based compensation plan for Elon Musk worth up to $1 trillion. More than 75% of voting investors backed the board’s proposal, despite strong opposition from several major institutional shareholders.

According to the deal, Musk could earn up to 25% of Tesla’s total shares, nearly doubling his current 13% stake, if the company meets a series of ambitious business milestones. Key targets include boosting Tesla’s market capitalization to $8.5 trillion and advancing strategically important ventures such as the robotaxi business.

The board justified the plan as essential to keeping Musk at the helm and ensuring continuity in Tesla’s long-term innovation agenda. If the company fails to meet the outlined goals, Musk will receive nothing, regardless of effort or progress made along the way.

The decision sparked intense debate among large investors. The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, CalPERS, the New York State Pension Fund, and several labor unions — including the American Federation of Teachers — voted against the plan. Their main objections centered on the potential dilution of shareholder equity and the view that Musk, already Tesla’s largest shareholder, has ample incentive to drive the company’s success without an additional bonus of this scale.

Supporters, however, argue that the package ties Musk’s reward directly to the company’s long-term growth and aligns his interests with those of investors. They also emphasize that Musk’s further leadership is critical as Tesla seeks to expand into new fields such as autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence.

This is not the first time Musk has secured a historic pay deal. Under a 2019 compensation plan, he received 96 million Tesla shares worth roughly $29 billion, contingent on his continued leadership of the company or oversight of key engineering initiatives through 2027.

In essence, the newly approved compensation package underscores Tesla’s commitment to retaining Musk’s vision and leadership, even as portions of the investor community express growing unease over the unprecedented scale of the payout.

Bank of America believes that artificial intelligence is emerging as a new force shaping the market value of the US dollar. In the short term, its impact may be mixed. Yet the investment boom driven by AI adoption has already added substantial momentum to the American economy and become a supportive factor for the US currency.

According to the bank’s estimates, in the first two quarters of 2025, investments in AI infrastructure—software, hardware, and data centers—contributed between 1.2 and 1.3 percentage points to US GDP growth. This boom has coincided with the rise in high-tech stocks, stronger consumer activity, and persistent inflation in the services sector. Together, these elements have reinforced expectations of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, commonly bullish for the dollar.

Still, a direct correlation between the rally in AI-related stocks and a stronger dollar has not materialized yet. Despite volatility in stock markets earlier this year, the dollar has largely traded sideways. Bank of America’s analysts emphasize that macroeconomic factors—such as interest rates and inflation expectations—remain the key drivers of currency performance.

There are, however, notable risks. The most significant one is AI’s impact on the labor market. Companies are becoming more cautious in hiring for jobs that could be automated. The early signs of cautious hiring may eventually translate into higher unemployment, potentially prompting the Fed to ease monetary policy. Therefore, the US dollar could lose ground amid a series of rate cuts.

In the longer term, much will depend on whether AI leads to higher productivity or instead exerts disinflationary pressure. In the first case, the dollar could benefit, as it did in the late 1990s during the technological transformation of the US economy. In the second, weaker inflation might reduce returns on US assets and, in turn, dampen global demand for the greenback.

Despite the uncertainties, Bank of America reckons that today’s AI investment wave—unlike the dot-com bubble—rests on profitable, fundamentally sound companies. This high investor interest in AI is more constructive for the dollar.

For now, AI has not become a dominant force in currency markets. Once investors see tangible long-term returns and productivity gains, artificial intelligence could evolve into one of the structural pillars supporting the US dollar in the years ahead.

The prolonged suspension of federal operations in the United States is already having a significant negative impact on the country’s economy. According to White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, certain sectors are experiencing pressures that exceed initial estimates.

The hardest hit industries are those related to travel and leisure. The shutdown has disrupted production cycles, halted construction projects, and led to declining demand for several companies. Hassett emphasized that if flight disruptions continue for another week or two, this could escalate into a short-term downturn for the airline industry.

In addition, the GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter has been revised downward. While the administration is counting on a swift recovery once the shutdown ends, the current pace of declining business activity raises concerns.

The suspension of operations began on October 1 and has now become the longest in US history, surpassing the shutdown of 2018-2019. The main cause is Congress's failure to agree on a budget, which has resulted in funding blockages for various federal programs and agencies.

The situation has already affected airport operations, resulting in flight delays. Furthermore, the US Treasury Department has previously warned of potential delays in salary payments for military personnel if the budget crisis is not resolved by mid-November.

Although an end to the conflict among federal authorities is in sight, concerns remain. The continued shutdown could further decelerate economic activity in critical segments of the US market.

US index futures rallied on Sunday evening amid reports that Congress is close to reaching an agreement to end the longest shutdown in US history. After a challenging week in which the technology sector weighed down the market, investors appear ready to embrace a cautious sense of optimism.

S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% to 6,782 points, Nasdaq 100 futures climbed by 0.6% to 25,314, and Dow Jones futures rose by 0.3% to settle at 47,230 points. While the gains are modest, they represent a significant achievement following a week of sell-offs.

The Senate is preparing to conduct a test vote on a short-term funding bill aimed at extending government operations until January 30. The media claims that Democrats are expected to provide sufficient support for its passage.

The shutdown has now lasted 40 days, becoming the longest in US history. Disputes over healthcare subsidies have left thousands of federal workers without jobs, delayed key economic data, and pushed airports and government services to their limits.

Investors hope that a compromise will alleviate political pressure and clarify economic prospects, especially amid rising concerns about growth rates and employment.

The uptick in futures also coincided with the market's efforts to stabilize after significant losses. Last week, the S&P 500 fell by 1.6%, the Nasdaq declined by 3%, and the Dow dropped by 1.2%.

Selling activity in the tech sector intensified following warnings of overheating surrounding artificial intelligence, with Nvidia shares falling by 7% and both Apple and Microsoft facing pressure.

As Congress negotiates funding, the market grapples with reality. Any hint of a compromise is seen as a catalyst for growth, even if it only translates to a 0.4% gain.

It all began with welcome news — China is lifting its 24% tariffs on US imports. It sounds awesome: two economic giants are eventually shaking hands. Here is a tiny remark — these are the same tariffs that China imposed in retaliation for American sanctions. It turns out that China is simply returning its own anger back to its pocket.

Bitcoin cheered this development. The flagship crypto surged by 3%, reclaiming the $100,000 mark and now hovering around $102,000. Interestingly, does the news about tariffs genuinely relate to the true value of Bitcoin, or is it merely a conditioned reflex among retail traders?

Officially, analysts affirm that this news acts as a catalyst for recovery. However, unofficially, it represents another chapter in the saga entitled the War of Words between Superpowers. The meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea yielded results: both sides are making goodwill gestures like wrestlers who are tired of landing mutual punches.

But here is a twist: Chinese soybean traders are dissatisfied. Tariffs have fallen from 37% to 13%, but that is still higher than in Brazil. The contrast is striking: policymakers speak of de-escalation while traders want to profit from every percentage point.

For cryptocurrencies, this situation is almost weird. Bitcoin’s 3% rally happened simply because people believed that trade might become slightly less hostile. This is not an investment in a currency of the future; day traders just speculate on presidential tweets. Tomorrow, Trump could post something provocative — and crypto could plummet by 5%.

The conclusion is clear: global trade resembles a TV series where actors have to adjust their characters to the script written in real time on social media. Bitcoin is like a spectator, responding to every scene without understanding the plot.

The cryptocurrency market began on a promising note, seemingly having found its ideal formula. However, this formula is not based on production, innovation, or utility. Instead, it combines leveraged funds and retail traders, resulting in disaster. The Kobeissi Letter reports that nearly 300,000 traders face liquidation of their positions daily. This staggering number reflects a grim reality: every day, individuals realize their investments have gone to waste. What is labeled as investing resembles more of a gamble, akin to playing Russian roulette, but with blockchain.

The official narrative attributes this phenomenon to traders using leverage to multiply their earnings. Unofficially, however, it resembles a form of financial addiction. One post or headline can trigger a chain reaction, experts note, particularly highlighting the impact of posts about Donald Trump. Consequently, the cryptocurrency market seems to be governed not by economic principles but rather by the tweets of a single individual.

The contrast between the official story and reality is striking. Major investors observe passively as retail traders engage in infighting. This chaos is beneficial for large players. While small traders panic and sell at rock-bottom prices, the larger investors acquire assets at a discount, later reselling them at a significant profit. This is not a market; it is a hunt where retail traders become the prey.

Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter ironically acknowledge that the long-term outlook appears positive. However, this view is only applicable to wealthy investors who can withstand any short-term downturn. For those who have invested their last dollar in cryptocurrency, this is more than a short-term risk—it is the end of the line.

Wintermute adds further complexity: the issue lies not in a lack of liquidity but rather in its redistribution. Money exists, but it flows from smaller players to larger ones. This is not a market correction but rather a financial revolution in which the cryptocurrency proletariat hands its wealth over to oligarchs.

In conclusion, the cryptocurrency market is not an investment in future success. It is a premium version of a casino, where tweets replace roulette, algorithms take the place of dealers, and happiness gives way to 300,000 liquidations each day.

When Donald Trump engaged in presidential pardons, one might have expected the name of Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, to be well-known. However, Trump surprisingly declared, “I don’t know who he is.” This is remarkable, considering his signature was vital to dismiss allegations of money laundering and national security risks that threatened to land Zhao in prison for four months. Trump attributed the situation to a “witch hunt” orchestrated by Joe Biden.

In an attempt to clarify, Norah O’Donnell, a senior correspondent for CBS News, asked how Binance had facilitated the purchase of a $2 billion stablecoin for the Trump family venture, World Liberty Financial. In response, Trump candidly admitted he was unaware of the details, claiming that he was too busy. The US president pointed out that his sons, who do not work in the government, are the ones engaged in cryptocurrency, asserting that there are no conflicts of interest. For him, crypto is simply a “wonderful industry.”

It began like a plotline from a gripping thriller about bankruptcy: the US government decided to embark on the longest pause in its history. Apparently, it forgot how to turn itself back on. Bloomberg has estimated that this break is costing the US economy between $10 and $30 billion each week.

Officially, this is called a government shutdown. Unofficially, it is when the president and Congress are playing poker with taxpayers' money, while decent Americans sit at home wondering whether they will receive social benefits and salaries by Christmas.

The authorities claim that this situation is temporary. In reality, history reminds us that a shutdown has occurred in the US for the seventh year straight, and each time the damage becomes more pronounced. Jonathan Millar at Barclays remarked that previous shutdowns did not lead to catastrophe. Now, the economy is not just fragile; it is trembling with fear of inflation and unemployment. It is like a building that has endured two earthquakes and now awaits a third.

For the average American, this situation is reminiscent of a family budget where husband and wife have failed to agree on expenses and punish each other by cutting off the electricity. Federal employees are losing their salaries. Travellers cannot visit parks because they are closed. Air traffic controllers are absent, causing planes to sit idle like cars in a traffic jam. Companies reliant on government contracts are praying for a miracle.

The statistics are staggering: the Congressional Budget Office predicts that the shutdown could trim growth in the fourth quarter by a full two percentage points. Two percent represents millions of people who will not be paid their salaries they counted on. The most astonishing thing is that the Senate has failed fourteen times to even pass a temporary resolution aimed at breaking the deadlock. Incredible!

The conclusion is simple: the American government is demonstrating to the world that when the state machinery no longer operates properly, the economy will be disabled slowly but surely. No one can stop the process because policymakers are focused on playing political theater. This shutdown is an odious historic achievement, but history is created by those who foot the bills.

The European Union has decided to tighten its grip on financial infrastructure by including stock and cryptocurrency exchanges under its watchful eye. Previously, each central bank had its own "Prohibited" rules. From now on, a single lengthy directive will be issued in Brussels to ensure that no one gets lost.

This initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance European competitiveness against the ever-looming US presence. Essentially, bureaucrats seek to consolidate their power, not only to monitor at the national level but to hold all financial activities within their grasp, denying local regulators the right to their own policies. It is a financial version of Big Brother, armed with Excel sheets and stakeholders.

A minor quest lies ahead: to expand the powers of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) so that it can oversee the largest cross-border organizations, rather than just fragmented national markets. In other words, bureaucracy is given the green light to resolve disputes between regulators and exchanges, including those in the cryptocurrency market.

Amidst this espionage-like saga, the Belgian depository Euroclear unexpectedly began unfreezing assets belonging to Russians without authorization from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). A Belgian license is now sufficient for such actions in Europe, creating significant discord in relations with the US. The art of investment diplomacy resembles navigating a turnstile when you have two access cards, but one suddenly becomes redundant.

The EU intends to monitor the pulse of financial markets around the clock to ensure they run smoothly and competitors do not attempt to advance their careers by circumventing European regulations. To sum up, market participants will need to comprehend the idea that market freedom means being freely monitored.