Bitcoin halving is a much-anticipated event in the cryptocurrency market. It usually precedes a steep rise in the digital asset. This time, however, the situation is different.

Crypto enthusiasts pinned much hope on it, but analysts at Deutsche Bank cooled their ardor a bit. According to currency strategists Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, one should not expect an immediate effect. Still, the halving was not in vain and miners would definitely be rewarded.

Deutsche Bank sees the halving of rewards for adding new blocks to the BTC network as significant. Experts attribute this to the fact that Bitcoin halving has been priced in.

In the near term, bank specialists expect the first cryptocurrency to get stuck in a sideways range. That is, the crypto asset is likely to remain relatively stable, with its value showing no gains. "Looking ahead, we continue to expect prices to stay high due to expectations of future spot ether (ETH) ETF approvals, future central bank rate cuts, and regulatory changes," Deutsche Bank noted.

Thus, the analysts do not anticipate any sharp price fluctuations in the short run. They are confident that the Bitcoin ecosystem will continue to develop within the cryptocurrency industry.

Earlier, a survey conducted by Deutsche Bank among over 3,600 customers from the US, UK, and EU countries found that only 10% of respondents expect Bitcoin to rise above $75,000 by year-end.

Europe's energy sector is enduring a prolonged period of difficulty, with no immediate resolution in sight. The situation has become more precarious as the European Union's energy regulator warned that the bloc remains dependent on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). Experts believe that a complete cessation of these imports could lead to a significant energy shock for European nations. Many EU officials argue that the reduction of Russian LNG imports should occur gradually. They caution against hasty actions in this sensitive area. Additionally, the energy regulator highlighted the challenge EU countries face in balancing energy security with the goal of weakening Russia's financial position by reducing LNG purchases. Recent reports indicate that the export of pipeline gas from Russia to European countries has peaked in the last six months, marking a significant increase over the same period in 2023. In February 2024, France became the largest buyer of Russian LNG, surpassing other foreign nations with purchases amounting to €322.3 million. As pipeline gas supplies dwindle, Russia is ramping up its LNG production. The country aims to increase its LNG output to 100 million tons by 2030, which would account for one-fifth of the world's gas production. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Russia currently holds an 8% share in global LNG production.

April has proved a tough month for Asian financial markets. Foreign investors are increasingly fleeing from the stock markets of developing Asian economies. According to Bloomberg, major market participants have sold nearly $2.2 billion worth of equities in the region’s emerging markets this month, thus snapping the longest streak of purchases that began in 2017.

Overseas investors are currently moving away from high-tech stocks in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan and shifting their focus to equities in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

Taiwan has seen the largest capital outflow. The MSCI EM Asia index is about to turn negative. Investors are no longer impressed by last year’s rally, although the indicator is up 4.6% on a yearly basis.

Scaled-down expectations for US rate cuts have added fuel to the fire. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, persistently elevated inflation will likely delay any Fed interest rate cuts until later. Other Fed officials are also in no hurry to ease monetary policy.

Investors are worried that the regulator’s potential delay could prompt emerging market central banks across Asia to follow suit and postpone rate cuts.

Thus, Asian markets are being weighed down by a number of factors: a stronger dollar, rising oil prices, and the Fed’s tight monetary policy. In addition, the region remains heavily dependent on energy imports. Analysts warn that rising Treasury yields coupled with high interest rates in the United States could force investors to further reduce their holdings in Asian equities and boost the appeal of the American market as a safer investment option.

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci has sought to allay critics' concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East are weighing on Bitcoin, expressing confidence that the world's largest cryptocurrency has room for more upside and should not be written off. 

The head of the investment firm is sure that BTC is "still an early stage technical asset that will trade like other risk assets until it exceeds a billion users which should happen by the end of 2026, if not sooner."

Considering that the US dollar has lost 22% of its value since January 2020, while Bitcoin has rallied since then, Scaramucci believes that the digital currency can be rightly compared to the US currency. According to him, BTC has some inflation hedging features despite its volatile nature.

In addition, the founder of Skybridge compared Bitcoin to the first airplane of the Wright brothers. He recalled that in 1918, there were still skeptics who claimed that flights would not be commercially viable. With this in mind, Scaramucci recommended that investors stay bullish on BTC. "It pays to be long this asset and patient," he concluded. The entrepreneur predicted that the first cryptocurrency could soar to $170,000, with its market cap eventually reaching half the market cap of gold.

US President Joe Biden is set to raise import tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum, aiming to bolster the American industry amid economic strategic considerations. This move comes as the US industry faces an increasing need for protection, according to US media. In a significant appearance, President Biden will address members of the United Steelworkers union in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. His speech is anticipated to reinforce his commitment to keeping United States Steel Corp. under American control, particularly as it plays out in the city where the company's headquarters is located. Adding an international dimension to the unfolding drama, in December 2023, Japan's Nippon Steel agreed to acquire US Steel for $14.1 billion in cash, a deal that includes a modest debt premium of only $800 million. The transaction is expected to close by the third quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, Biden has directed his focus towards US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, urging serious consideration of a significant increase in tariffs on certain types of Chinese steel and aluminum. The current tax, which ranges from zero to 7.5%, could be raised to 25%, a rate that has become something of a standard. To further intensify matters, Katherine Tai has initiated an official investigation into China's shipbuilding industry, suggesting a comprehensive approach to the issue. Lael Brainard of the National Economic Council summarized the administration's stance, noting, "The President understands the need to invest in American manufacturing and to protect these investments and workers from Chinese industrial power." This strategy not only aims to safeguard American jobs but also to unify the nation against China's industrial capabilities. Bloomberg experts note that these tariff adjustments will impact a relatively narrow segment of the American market. Imports of steel and aluminum from China in 2023 were quite modest, totaling less than $1.7 billion.

The financial state of affairs of the US president and his family is now available for public scrutiny during the presidential race which is already in full swing. American voters are now aware that Joe Biden and his spouse Jill declared their common earnings of roughly $620,000 for 2023. 

The income declaration of the presidential couple has been posted on the website of the White House. It reads that their gross income, i.e. before tax deductions, amounted to $619,976 last year. Joe and Jill Biden certainly participated in charity courses and donated $20,000.   

Interestingly, the presidential couple proved themselves as obedient taxpayers. Almost a quarter of their joint income was charged for the federal income tax. 

White House lawyer Richard Sauber said that the investigation into Joe Biden’s handling of classified documents confirmed his innocence. Unlike his predecessor and bitter rival Donald Trump, President Biden has never been subject to any impeachment inquiries.

All we can do now is to wait and see whether Joe Biden’s unblemished reputation will bring him a second term in office.      

Technology development is one of the top national policies for Vietnam. In an effort to promote economic growth, Vietnamese authorities prefer to explore new ideas and challenge conventions. A unique approach has also been applied to blockchain technology. The government is now working on a legal framework to regulate the cryptocurrency market.

According to Cao Dang Dinh, deputy director of the Department of Economic and Civil Legislation, cryptocurrencies are not banned in the country, but there is a pressing need for a comprehensive legal framework. He believes that it is time to remove chaos and bring order to the sphere of digital assets.

Thus, Cao Dang Dinh has asked the Ministry of Finance to study how the industry is regulated in different countries and come up with extensive proposals. Creating a legal framework would help mitigate potential risks and effectively respond to the challenges that virtual currencies may pose, the official noted.

In February 2024, the Vietnamese government ordered the implementation of a legal framework by May 2025 to ban or regulate the cryptocurrency market.

Interestingly, statistics from the Vietnam Blockchain Association showed that the value of cryptocurrency assets received by Vietnam totaled nearly $91 billion in September 2023. Cryptocurrency transactions are mostly conducted by Vietnamese holders on international platforms or through anonymous transactions.

Gold, the timeless asset that has captivated investors and even movie villains alike, is in the spotlight once again. According to Citigroup, gold prices are expected to climb significantly, potentially reaching as high as $3,000 per ounce within the next one to one-and-a-half years. Investors are advised to take note as this could represent a lucrative opportunity. The optimism stems from expectations that the US Federal Reserve might cut interest rates, which tends to drive investors towards gold. Despite a lackluster performance by gold ETFs in recent years, analysts predict a revival in their popularity as investors look to hedge against potential market volatility. Initial forecasts suggest gold prices may first stabilize at around $2,350 per ounce, before climbing to approximately $2,875 per ounce. Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam, adds that in the long-term perspective, prices might even stabilize around $2,700 per ounce. Dudchenko cites geopolitical tensions and increased interest in precious metals by global regulators as key factors driving the uptrend, alongside speculative actions in the market. While there's always a possibility that prices could fluctuate, the long-term outlook remains optimistic.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its oil demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2024. The agency revises its forecasts every month.

The global energy watchdog presented a more optimistic forecast in March, anticipating energy demand at 103.176 million bpd. According to revised estimates, global energy demand is now expected at 103.166 million bpd on average this year.

The IEA also updated its estimates for the energy consumed in 2023: 101.946 million bpd versus 101.842 million bpd in the previous report. Besides, the agency says in April that the pace of oil demand growth is likely to decline to 1.202 million bpd in 2024 versus 1.334 million bpd estimated in March. IEA experts admit that such revision is a common practice.

The watchdog also predicted some improvement in global oil demand by 2025 to 103.312 million bpd.     

There have been numerous occasions when analysts proclaimed an end to the dollar’s dominance. However, the US currency remains the currency of choice for international trade. Apparently, the trend toward de-dollarization is greatly exaggerated.

In 2023, the US dollar’s share of global currency reserves rose slightly, while the Chinese yuan's share shrank, Business Insider reported.

Despite an increase in calls for a lessening of the greenback's status as the chief reserve currency and central banks’ efforts to reduce the use of the US currency in international trade and financial transactions, the dollar maintains its dominance on the world stage.

The share of US dollar reserves held by central banks increased to 58.4% last year, marking the first annual increase since 2015. In physical terms, USD holdings were up by $227 billion.

Although many central banks were attempting to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar and shift to the precious metal, the share of global central bank gold reserves remained virtually unchanged in 2023. 

So, despite all the apocalyptic warnings and the growing de-dollarization trend, the dollar is still by far the dominant global reserve asset by a wide margin. At least, it is likely to remain so for a few more years.

The Federal Reserve is worried by the fact that inflation has stuck at elevated levels for longer than expected. Something is going wrong with the plan to push inflation down using prolonged aggressive monetary tightening. At the same time, the US central bank still keeps a rate cut on its agenda at some point this year. In other words, the Federal Reserve hopes for a rate cut until the year's end but this policy move is not finally decided yet.

Meanwhile, the FOMC maintains the official funds rate in a target range of 5.25-5.5% per annum, at the highest levels since early 2001.

The latest inflation reports showed hotter-than-expected annual CPIs in January and February. So, some Federal Reserve’s policymakers reckon it is not a coincidence but a bad omen that should not be neglected. Therefore, stubborn inflation requires the central bank not to rush to cut interest rates. Other arguments for keeping interest rates at highs are a healthy labor market and robust economic growth. These factors set the stage for buoyant consumption that, in turn, accounts for inflation acceleration. The Federal Reserve needs compelling evidence that inflation is firmly going down. Only on this condition, the central bank will move on to monetary easing.

The nearest policy meeting of the US central bank is scheduled for April 30 – May 1. In the meantime, Chairman Jerome Powell is keeping markets in suspense. At the end of 2023, market participants expected a few rate cuts throughout 2024, but at present, the likelihood of at least one rate cut is fading week by week.         

JPMorgan has updated its economic forecast for the United States, now predicting a 55% probability of a “soft landing” rather than a recession in the first half of 2024. This optimistic shift marks a significant adjustment from their previous forecast, which had only a 30% likelihood of avoiding a downturn. Business insiders report that this positive change in outlook was influenced by a series of unexpectedly favorable economic data. Trade balances, supply indicators in the US, and global financial conditions have shown improvement, contributing to a more favorable economic projection. Previously, JPMorgan had expressed concerns about high interest rates impacting the private sector's growth, increasing the cost of debt servicing, and generally dampening economic activity. However, Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan, has now adopted a more optimistic stance. He suggests that the Federal Reserve might consider holding off on rate cuts to preserve the delicate balance of confidence currently supporting the economy. The latest data, which has been more positive than anticipated, paints a picture of an economy that could maintain a “soft landing” at least through the end of the next year. This revised outlook suggests that JPMorgan's analysts see a stabilizing economy ahead.

According to Bloomberg, strategists at Bank of America and LBBW are concerned that a growing policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank could put significant pressure on the euro. 

The European currency is expected to dive as much as 8% and hit parity with the US dollar, weighed down by the divergence in policy paths between the two major central banks. 

Last year, the euro fell to parity with the greenback due to the energy crisis. This time around, experts attribute such a gloomy projection to the regulators’ diverging approaches to monetary policy.

Moritz Kraemer, chief economist at LBBW, is the most pessimistic expert among those surveyed. The analyst predicts that the euro could plunge to $1.01 by 2025. "The dollar would just go through parity like a hot knife through butter" if the US regulator keeps its monetary policy tight, while the ECB eases, he assumed. 

According to strategists from Bank of America, the euro could come back to parity with the dollar if the ECB delivers three quarter-point interest rate cuts. In case of a new energy shock, Europe’s common currency could come under more pressure and take another nosedive.

However, traders believe such a bleak scenario is unlikely. Markets are pricing in only a 15% chance of the euro weakening to parity with the US dollar in the next 12 months.

Fitch has recently revised China's credit outlook to "negative." This adjustment reflects growing budgetary risks amidst the transformation of the country's economic model. Such developments prompt a critical juncture for China: the path could lead to new heights or potential setbacks. In a parallel move, Moody's had already adjusted its forecast in December 2023, indicating concerns similar to those expressed by Fitch. According to Fitch, the fiscal deficit in China is expected to rise to 7.1% of GDP in 2024, up from 5.8% in 2023. To put this into perspective, the deficit peaked at 8.6% in 2022 during the stringent COVID-19 lockdowns. Economic growth in China is also expected to slow to 4.5% next year, while public debt is anticipated to increase to 61.3% of GDP. Fitch states that this revision "reflects rising budgetary risks," suggesting challenging times ahead for the Chinese economy. In response to Fitch's revision, the Chinese Ministry of Finance expressed "deep regret," a sentiment that underscores the gravity of the situation. Meanwhile, Moody’s cautioned that this additional burden could exert fiscal pressure on the government. This series of evaluations by major credit rating agencies indicates considerable concern regarding China's economic outlook, reflecting concerns over its fiscal health and future economic stability.

India’s stock market could swell tenfold in mere 20 years, thus turning into an international financial hub. Bearing in mind India’s booming economy, such prospects seem realistic. According to the latest estimates, the trading volume of the domestic stock market has already surpassed $4.6 trillion. More than 6,000 companies willing to attract overseas capital went public at two major stock exchanges in India, CNBC reported, referring to Sujan Hajra, the chief economist at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, who is bullish about the benchmark stock indices.

Another optimistic expert polled by CNBC believes that India’s stock market has enough bullish momentum to expand to $60 trillion. This ambitious forecast is based on solid fundamentals. The Nifty 50, the benchmark index of the National Stock Exchange, surged by a whopping 20% in 2023, having outpaced Hong Kong’s main stock index. This amazing rally correlates to the 7.2% expansion in the national economic output in the same 2023. So, optimistic experts put forward weighty arguments.              

Remarkably, India is eager to assert itself as a high-tech leader of Asia, willing to challenge well-established heavyweight China. New Delhi cherishes a dream to become a kind of Silicon Valley for foreign high-tech giants, for example, Apple Inc. These companies were discouraged by tough economic restrictions imposed by Beijing during the COVID-19 pandemic. While a huge iPhone manufacturing facility in China was suffering losses during COVID lockdowns, India was working out plans to win over overseas investors.  

Indeed, India has ambitions to replace China as a more advantageous partner for electronics manufacturers and start-ups. The government is firmly on the path to its goal, enticing foreign capital and pumping up the domestic consumer market. These efforts are likely to bear fruit as India can boast a rapidly developing economy and qualified workforce. Nevertheless, New Delhi has to push harder to take over China’s high-tech leadership in Asia. Who knows? Perhaps India’s successful economy could outpace underperforming China in the not-too-distant future.       

A decline in productivity across G20 emerging markets could reduce global output by three times as hard as in 2000, the International Monetary Fund estimates. 

The IMF warns that domestic shocks in the group’s developing countries could hit rich-world growth, thereby dealing a major blow to the global economy, incomparable to what was the case 20 years ago. 

According to the fund, emerging economies in the G20 are now deeply embedded in the global economy. These markets are increasingly impacting global economic output. Thus, their weak performance could create larger "spillovers" to the rest of the world, which are now comparable to those from advanced economies.  

So, G20 emerging markets, which have doubled their share of world trade and foreign direct investment over the past two decades, now play a vital role in the economic performance of their neighbors.